Topic: Recession soon? - page 2. (Read 1346 times)

Because now China is rich enough to train their army for Taiwan's invasion.

Because by making blue collar workers poor by sending the manufacturing to East Asia you wonder as a privileged white collar worker from your ivory Silicon Valley tower why populism became so... popular.

Need I continue?

Why is it dumb to help China get richer? More countries without financial issues cause a lesser amount of conflicts. 
The way it was done was not very smart, true. Still we are better off with China having money than relying on just "the west".
The West is pretty exclusive.

By we, I count all 3rd World countries, which instead of looking for their own path try to copy the west.

Btw:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

#1 China
#2 USA

So IF this prediction was really talking about PPP GDP (as you insist), it's already true (China is already #1 in PPP GDP according to the above link):

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/01/india-will-overtake-the-us-economy-by-2030/

But I told you it's talking about nominal GDP, not PPP and you're trying to lecture me about economics (), even though you don't understand that AI can bring exponential GDP growth (and you need high-end microchips for exponential AI/GDP growth, that's why they want to capture Taiwan/TSMC):

https://i.imgur.com/O3r2uwx.png

China experiences (slow) depopulation since 2023 (first time since 1961), so there's no way they're going to experience economic growth by using cheap human labor force. Stop thinking in human terms and start thinking in AI terms.

Responding in an overly defensive and sentimental manner ("I've had a bad childhood in USSR, so I'm going to defend USA to death") is not going to get you very far in life...

TBH, I don't even know why you got into Bitcoin in the first place, since you have so much faith in USD surviving longer than 100 years (the usual average for global reserve currencies).

Chill down a bit, you tend to do this pretty often on this forum. Just because someone said back in 1945 that USA will fall "soon", doesn't mean that every prediction is wrong. USA was still a baby back in 1945. Now it's an old senile man. Apples and oranges comparison really.

It's like arguing that BTC will fall soon (just like you did), even though it's still in its infancy. BTC might fall in 2140 (since it will be over 100+ years old), but nobody knows for sure, since we won't be alive by then.

It's OK to be a man, admit you were wrong and decline the bet. No harm done!

I'm afraid you're trolling me (believing that BTC will go to zero by 2030) and you're doing psychological projection on me.

Poor commie guy... those breadlines in Poland must have caused you severe childhood trauma.

Do you actually know how to make a bet ?

1) We work with IMF/World Bank/Zerohedge/Alex Jones numbers?
2) The GDP numbers are for the end of 2030, so it includes the 2030 year or it must happen during 2030, so basically Q3 2030 (fixed this), or it must be till 2030
3) When it's the final decision-making limit?
4) What user(s) we use for arbitrage?
5) What escrow?
6) You're just wasting my time trolling, right?

I believe 1 BTC = 1 BTC.

What do you believe?

I don't speak in terms of dollars for the bet, so don't use that metric.

If China becomes No1 in nominal (not PPP) GDP, you'll give me 1 BTC.

If USA remains No1, I'll give you 1 BTC.

How does that sound?

I think that you actually believe that more than you want to let people know, otherwise you would propose the bet.


Yup, show the conditions and who decides the numbers and the winner, if I think it's fair it's a $66 000 bet!

You're totally ignorant about WEF's agenda (Great Reset), got it.

Regarding GDP growth, you're still thinking in human terms: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qCJ7X2H1Qw

I don't care if 1 BTC is worthless or if it costs 1 million bucks by 2030.

1 BTC = 1 BTC. Right?

Willing to take the bet or nah?

Let me save you 1 BTC:

This is the link you shared! It says 2030 but it's written in 2019!

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/01/india-will-overtake-the-us-economy-by-2030/

Second, it's not Davos, whatever you think that means, it's "according to Standard Chartered " and it's bassed on their prediction from 2010
Which you can read here:
https://www.sc.com/sg/_pdf/SuperCycle_external_Final.pdf

How's that "prediction working?

Now, this is 2023 reality:
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/will-china-ever-get-rich-new-era-much-slower-growth-dawns-2023-07-18/

Third, since I have serious doubts you know what nominal GDP is, let me do simple math for you, you know, basic numbers, things that are anchored in reality not youtube vids.

Currently, US's GDP is 27 Trillons, while China's is 17.7 Trilions, we talk NOMINAL not PPP.
There are 6 years till 2030, which means China will have to grow each year by 8%, so exceeding by almost double the CCP own prediction and the US will have to stand at a standstill for that to happen. Now assuming 5% as the CCP has mandated it to happen and the US sitting again still, you will need till 2035.

So, are you that sure one Bitcoin will be worthless by 2030 that you want to take this bet?

Wanna take a bet that China will be No1 in terms of nominal GDP by 2030?

1 BTC

Put your money where your mouth is.

ps: I'm not a fan of China or totalitarianism in general (including faux Western "democracies"), but that's just the way things are heading according to Davos/WEF.

If West was not that dumb, then China would still be piss poor. This is all our fault. Be a man and admit it.

Yeah, got it, no actual arguments just slogans, so, call me in 2030!

Gotcha, you're from an ex-commie/USSR country and you think USA is the "savior". Poor guy, you still have trauma from the breadlines in Poland...

I'll call you again in 2030, biased guy...

Spoiler alert: Davos controls every country (from USA to China). The capitalism vs communism division is faux for guys like you.

You also forgot farmer protests in EU for some strange reason... yeah, LNG prices and incessant USD/EUR printing caused too much inflation. But sure, it's all Russian propaganda (even Putin is controlled by Davos).

Sorry to burst your bubble, but there is no savior here.

ps: I know the price of USD in sats.

It seems you're also a faux Bitcoiner, otherwise you would count in sats too, not dollars. Such a disappointment this forum is. Faux Bitcoin maxis everywhere.

The chart still says PPP. Show me one with GDP nominal.


And yet they need to invite Taiwan for that?
You forgot where your scenario started, let me remind you:


Solar panels are not chips! Even Morroco has a solar panel manufacturer, but not that many chips!


Yeah, we already have frozen to death two winters already and eaten out pet hamsters, so let's not listen to Russian propaganda anymore...Right?
Gas is trading below the levels before the invasion, so don't go there!


It's more like China versus US, EU, Nato, Australia, New Zeeland, Japan, South Korea, Philipines, Vietnam, Singapore, and Taiwan.


Neah, it's because my grandparents heard that since 45, and my parents and I heard that in the breadlines till 89, my kid is hearing this as he grows, his nephew will hear that and look at it, the only thing in the world that died more times than Bitcoin is the USD.

Yet, even here, even you, you know the price of Bitcoin in USD, you don't know the price of USD in Bitcoin!
Call me when that happens! Oh my bad, call my grandchild!

Are you American or what?

It says "Top 10 countries by nominal GDP in 2030"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-survey-china-world-superpower-185949233.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6575793/China-worlds-largest-economy-2030-India-surpass-U-S.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jo1PiiVEfGQ

It seems you enjoy being a contrarian a la Franky...

Sure thing, Chinese are pretty good at reverse engineering stuff. I thought that was common sense. That's why Made in China products are ubiquitous .

It seems you have "forgotten" this for some strange reason:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asml-holding-usa-china-insight-idUSKBN1Z50HN

Care to explain why Trump was worried about China getting their hands on ASML equipment?

Also, keep in mind 95% of solar panels imported in the EU are made in China:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/with-solar-industry-crisis-europe-bind-over-chinese-imports-2024-02-06/
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/02/13/chinese-competition-poses-existential-threat-to-europes-solar-industry
https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/02/08/europe-is-importing-a-solar-boom-good-news-for-nearly-everyone
https://balkangreenenergynews.com/eu-rules-out-measures-against-imports-of-solar-panels-from-china/

Wanna know what will happen to the green transition if China stops exporting solar panels to the EU?

It seems you're totally clueless when it comes to geopolitics and 4D chess. EU is already struggling with LNG, let's not make it even worse than it already is, shall we?

China has everyone by the balls and it's West's fault for outsourcing the manufacturing to East Asia.

EU cannot even manufacture a modern chip foundry to compete against TSMC... Dresden used to have a high-end AMD factory back in 1999-2000. Those days are long gone.

A "continental" power is necessary? Says who? Especially in a globalized and increasingly digital world... this won't be a traditional war, unless you expect they/them trannies to fight in WW3.

Come on, it's China vs USA. Everybody has figured it out, except you it seems:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/03/10/china-could-invade-taiwan-2027-top-us-admiral-warns/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiaukPUV6Hg&t=1622s

Great Reset tells you nothing?

Ancient Romans also had lots of faith in their empire... that aged well.

I don't expect anything to last forever (including Bitcoin), but as I said BTC is still a baby, not even an adult. Still a long way to go, unlike the dollar.

I'll never understand geriatric Bitcoiners who put so much faith in a declining empire. Have you invested in 401k or what?

I also suggest to study this one:

https://www.brandonquittem.com/bitcoin-rhythms-of-history/

Look better at that chart:

PPP, or the way to tell poor people eating a loaf of bread in the slums of Lagos is the same as Buffet having a golden sprinkled wagyu steak in Manhattan.

By PPP Egypt has a 2 trillion economy, by USD or, well Bitcoin, it's only 400 billion.


TSMC is nothing with ASML, and good luck in invading the Netherlands.


Those patterns have all the same story, the main power falling in a war against another continental power.
Now, based on those patterns, how do you see Mexico or Canada faring in a war against the US?

We all have behavior that we're getting use to and this have been the major hurdles that have been dropping my points in games. I'm supposed to site in comfortable position when I'm losing?  I'll continue to invests because the main investor don't take slightly mistakes. We can continue earning from the system, it's no pure luck but backup with thorough work. The system is broad and there's vast number of earnings. Our solid business will start milking the system at scenario where we're seeing clearly. The huge rules in the system will definitely keep on recurring because thr hammer.

Low interest rates can incentivize businesses to invest and grow, potentially leading to job creation.  Imagine a business owner who sees low borrowing costs as an opportunity to expand, hiring new workers in the process.

The equation isn't quite that simple.  While low rates might stimulate borrowing, they can also fuel inflation. Imagine a scenario where everyone has easy access to cheap credit, leading to a surge in spending and eventually, rising prices. Central banks raise interest rates to combat inflation, but this can dampen economic growth. It's a delicate balancing act.

Businesses might choose to park their money in savings accounts if interest rates rise significantly.  The potential for a return on investment becomes more attractive than the risks of expansion.  This shift in behavior could lead to a slowdown in economic activity.

The Bic Mac index is better than GDP.  Pair that with education and we are getting there.
Either country is not really for me.

For better or worse, GDP is the best metric to compare economies in capitalism...

There are also other metrics, such as the Gini coefficient, but I don't think it's better to live in Cuba compared to USA, despite having "free" healthcare.

GDP is smokescreen data, that much we should all notice.Its a system data showing how a country is doing. Acording to GDP Russia is doing fine.
US of A is doing fine too, and most countries give cleaned data to the "authorities" who like to sample those. Davos known as being worker friendly.
No doubt that the upper political class is doing just fine.