Review of S.DICE - page 3. | Bitcointalksearch.org

sunnankar

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Activity: 1031

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Quote from: herzmeister on February 02, 2013, 07:29:34 AM

Quote from: sunnankar on February 01, 2013, 09:31:24 PM

Quote from: ThickAsThieves on February 01, 2013, 02:10:09 PM

What could S.DICE realistically sell out for?

I think $100-200m in the next 12-18 months is realistic.

S.DICE is *only* about the domain though.

Actually, it is about even less than just the domain name which makes it even more valuable because there is even less risk to its going concern status.

Peter Lambert

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: ThickAsThieves on February 02, 2013, 01:16:12 PM

Quote from: herzmeister on February 02, 2013, 07:29:34 AM

It has no precious user data like other sites do.

The site could probably implement user wallets and accounts at satoshidice.com.

The site very well may be worth $100m+, but that's a lot of money to put toward doing it yourself and marketing the piss out of it.

Why would they need to make their own wallet, when blockchain.info wallet already has a direct satoshidice feature?

ThickAsThieves

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Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: herzmeister on February 02, 2013, 07:29:34 AM

It has no precious user data like other sites do.

The site could probably implement user wallets and accounts at satoshidice.com.

The site very well may be worth $100m+, but that's a lot of money to put toward doing it yourself and marketing the piss out of it.

Peter Lambert

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: herzmeister on February 02, 2013, 07:29:34 AM

Quote from: sunnankar on February 01, 2013, 09:31:24 PM

Quote from: ThickAsThieves on February 01, 2013, 02:10:09 PM

What could S.DICE realistically sell out for?

I think $100-200m in the next 12-18 months is realistic.

S.DICE is *only* about the domain though. It has no precious user data like other sites do.

It may not have user data, but it does have users. People would pay to not have to generate their own userbase.

herzmeister

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Activity: 1764

Merit: 1007

Quote from: sunnankar on February 01, 2013, 09:31:24 PM

Quote from: ThickAsThieves on February 01, 2013, 02:10:09 PM

What could S.DICE realistically sell out for?

I think $100-200m in the next 12-18 months is realistic.

S.DICE is *only* about the domain though. It has no precious user data like other sites do.

sunnankar

legendary

Activity: 1031

Merit: 1000

Quote from: ThickAsThieves on February 01, 2013, 02:10:09 PM

What could S.DICE realistically sell out for?

I think $100-200m in the next 12-18 months is realistic.

byronbb

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Activity: 1414

Merit: 1000

HODL OR DIE

It's about limits and payout %. That's how you improve the product. A 500max bet is pretty big but its small in the world of degen whales.

Here's someone droping 900k on Barcelona last year on Betfair.

And here are current superbowl odds at pinnacle with max bet at 140k with rebets allowed after line move.

ThickAsThieves

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: ianbakewell on February 01, 2013, 12:50:31 PM

Hopefully a big vegas player comes and buys s.dice

I'm not sure if that's the ideal situation though.

What could S.DICE realistically sell out for? And, at what price is it more prudent for a buyer to just start his own operation?

Korbman

legendary

Activity: 1064

Merit: 1001

Quote from: ianbakewell on February 01, 2013, 12:50:31 PM

Anyhow, I am doing much better on the investment side than I was rolling the dice, how about you guys?

In at .0037 and still holding Cool

sunnankar

legendary

Activity: 1031

Merit: 1000

Quote from: wachtwoord on January 27, 2013, 03:44:06 PM

As far as I can tell their strategy in the battle concerning the legality of the enterprise is keeping everything (all expenses and income) in the company in Bitcoin.

That is one defense. But there are even stronger legal defenses that can be employed. The blockchain is a remarkable tool for slicing through all types of issues like civil procedure and purposeful availment to start with.

I do not think there are any material legal risks associated with SD; not that I would recommend the concession of any facts regarding it. Additionally, I would change some of the wording on the site to clean up some loose ends.

wachtwoord

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Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

They cannot hire someone for fiat money because they have none. As far as I can tell their strategy in the battle concerning the legality of the enterprise is keeping everything (all expenses and income) in the company in Bitcoin. That's one of the reasons for the IPO as the previous owners of the IPO'ed shares are able to use the funds acquired from that sell outside the current Bitcoin economy.

sunnankar

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Activity: 1031

Merit: 1000

Quote from: k on January 27, 2013, 05:46:33 AM

Quote from: sunnankar on January 26, 2013, 10:17:12 PM

So, after dividend this should leave approximately 45k of retained earnings making it an extremely safe investment all things considered.

I've seen you talk about these retained earnings before. Is there something in the prospectus about this? My understanding is that the profits are shared out amount the 100 million shares. So 10% goes to owners of the shares on MPEX and the other 90% goes to the other shareholder(s) (Erik or whoever), so those Bitcoins are not owned by SatoshiDice so shouldn't be used in making a valuation of the shares.

Well, I suppose it is implied from past behavior (Oct 2012) based on terms 2.2(f-h) of IPO Agreement #3. It also makes sense based on the business model. Based on blockchain analysis, it looks like the other 90% investors take at most dividends equal to the 10% publicly listed. After all, SD's bankroll is one of its competitive advantages so it makes sense to get a large bankroll.

A little more clarity from the issuer on this issue of retained earnings would probably be good but I completely understand an unwillingness to do so as any representation could implicitly limit future behavior. But then the 10% shareholders are freeriding? off the 90% shareholder(s) retained earnings.

Really, the financial statements just need to be cleaned up a little bit. The Google Doc is pretty amateur (typical of startup Bitcoinland). And with an $12.5m market capitalisation it might justify the expense. As a shareholder I would not be opposed to a $100-200/month fee for a CPA to create a nice and pretty Google Doc (plus, three years of professionally prepared financial statements might be helpful when it comes time to sell it). Plus, it would free up the time of whoever is currently creating the Google Doc.

k

sr. member

Activity: 451

Merit: 250

Quote from: sunnankar on January 26, 2013, 10:17:12 PM

So, after dividend this should leave approximately 45k of retained earnings making it an extremely safe investment all things considered.

I've seen you talk about these retained earnings before. Is there something in the prospectus about this? My understanding is that the profits are shared out amount the 100 million shares. So 10% goes to owners of the shares on MPEX and the other 90% goes to the other shareholder(s) (Erik or whoever), so those Bitcoins are not owned by SatoshiDice so shouldn't be used in making a valuation of the shares.

sunnankar

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Activity: 1031

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Bowjob on January 26, 2013, 05:58:52 PM

S.Dice shares have reached 0.0075 in MPEX. Well done

Yes, once again I was right.

Quote from: ianbakewell on January 26, 2013, 05:59:51 PM

Should be worth slightly less than double that if you take this months earnings into consideration

Well, I am not sure if double is the right amount but S.Dice is certainly worth more than .0075. Jan earnings so far are about 17k BTC on 680k. So, after dividend this should leave approximately 45k of retained earnings making it an extremely safe investment all things considered. My Wallet just passed 100k users.

Also, since the initial .0037 IPO sold out earlier in the month the European gaming magazine advertising campaign, according to the prospectus, should be getting rolled out soon. That should help quite a bit with publicity, brand recognition, earnings and share price.

So, I would not be surprised if those 4m shares at .01 start getting nibbled into pretty soon. 40k BTC is a lot of savings ($800k) so it would be surprising if the capital pools are that deep. But MPEx did add 49 new accounts in Jan. That wall at .0075 should get taken out pretty quickly since they are undervalued.

Despite not being a fan of the vices, I am actually kind of interested in this little experiment. I wonder if some casino is going to acquire SD for $100-200m in 12-18 months.

Bowjob

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

Everyone should make fun of me now that I sold almost half of my holdings 12,500 shares. I'm glad I hedged a bit though.

Bowjob

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

Bowjob

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

So.. I'm sure that guy who just lost 70 grand trading S.Dice at such a cheap price is here somewhere. If you are are reading this, care to share your story?

Peter Lambert

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: adamstgBit on January 25, 2013, 12:28:37 PM

if somone made a typo once.... he can do it again!

short all the ~~bitcoins~~ s.dice!

But he lost all his money on that typo, so he can't make the same mistake again.

Money will flow from the stupid/weak/careless to the smart/strong/careful.

Bowjob

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

Oh god.. someone lost a lot of BTC.. He was off by a factor of 10! I wonder if they guy harmed himself or something.

adamstgBit

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1037

Trusted Bitcoiner

Quote from: Chalkbot on January 25, 2013, 10:37:33 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on January 24, 2013, 11:09:52 PM

Quote from: ianbakewell on January 24, 2013, 09:31:59 PM

Even with the BTC price rally (now reversing) how low does the share price need to get for it to be "worth buying" to you?

5BTC / 1000

holy shit S.DICE droped to 0.8BTC / 1000 a few hours ago

ok i'll buy at 2BTC / 1000

Adam, the 0.8 selloff was almost certainly due to a typo. That guy lost a lot of BTC selling way below the market price at the time.

The selloff and the hypothesis to how the mistake was made are documented in this chat log:
http://polimedia.us/trilema/2013/marketplace-excitement-with-expert-commentary-for-your-vicarious-trading-pleasure/

if somone made a typo once.... he can do it again!

short all the ~~bitcoins~~ s.dice!

Topic: Review of S.DICE - page 3. (Read 12258 times)