Topic: Review of S.DICE - page 9. (Read 12258 times)

Havelock has been around for a bit, but they've only started opening up their doors to hosting new funds in October 2012 or so. I was their first fund besides their own to be featured (and it's not easy to get hosted..you have to prove you're a good investment first).

You can probably message Lightbox here on the forums, he's the owner of Havelock and runs the exchange.


For now. We helped run up the price after switching the passthru to a public offering instead of private

my calculation are dead wrong.
their are actually 100,000,000 shares, 90% of which is held by the owner, 10% of which was sold as IPO


not as HOT as i thought but still, a good place to park some coins 

am i reading this chart right, 5 days ago 4milloin shares were sold? that almost half of all the shares, anonymous investor sold some of his 90%?

Yup, i feel good about my investment 

First, Satoshi Dice is an equity play; not a bond. So you should be doing the appropriate financial analysis.


While not being a fan of the vices, this does present a fairly finance textbook example of a melt-up due to good news. Let me run through the analysis for the fun of it.

Although December had unusually high earnings of 3.2% (17,206.44888669 /537,375.97) the intriguing part is the strengthening of the SD balance sheet to the tune of about 28,000 BTC retained earnings.

To be conservative we will assume the public float dividend were doubled and paid out to the anonymous investor holding the other 90%. After all, the anonymous investor owns 9x more than the public float and would not want to jeopardize SD's solvency potentially having to shutter it due to bad luck and has probably not taken any dividends since they probably have plenty of cash from the IPO and could probably fly private wherever they want with this type of monthly cash-flow.

This leaves about 25,000 BTC of retained earnings which to exhaust would require about -4.795% negative luck on 550,000 BTC of bets compared to the Dec beginning retained earnings of -2.22%. Assuming the anonymous investor has taken no dividends then the luck probabilities change to -5.11% and -2.29%.

In other words, if you do the probability (some other math whiz can solve this if they feel particularly magnanimous) that SD will exhaust its RE's due to bad luck in the dice game and cease being a going concern then it reveals that solvency risk just plummeted massively causing an increase in the expected discounted future cash flows.





Everything else being equal, this additional 15,500 BTC of retained earnings, makes SD much safer of an investment with a much higher NPV which is already corrected for BTC exchange rate risk.

Consequently, a melt-up in the price is to be expected. What is fairly exceptional is that the issuer did not cancel the IPO's at .0037 or at least move the bid up; or maybe the anonymous investor bought them using some dividends. But that is neither here nor there, using a similar risk premium before Dec's earnings would put a price around at least .0075. So it will be interesting to see how long it takes to get there; assuming an average Jan luck.

the  S.DICE IPO on havelock sold out 

Thanks for the info guys.

I might just test it out a little and see how it goes.

I think they are 2 separate Canadian companies that work closely thorougher.

they started off with only 1 fund, their own mining fund. My guess is they try very hard not to offer ponzi scheme investments so are very picky about what funds are traded on their platform.

and yes they are relatively new...  Aug 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnmbKPh6qqs

adam,

Do you know anything about havelockinvestments? I like the site, but never heard of it and don't know who is running it. Must be relatively new, since only 3 funds currently, unless I'm missing something.

Your growth model is fairly conservative....

If you can pick up passthru shares for under .005, I'd do it.  Shares just hit 0.0048 on MPEX now that the IPO sold out.

yes you can buy them, 10,000,000Shares have been issued, 100% of Satoshi Dice's profits are distributed to share holders.

and now they are trading on MPEX, I'm dealing with a pass through... havelockinvestments.com

You can buy shares of Satoshi Dice?

Wow, you'd earn a lot if that's true.

You won't.

I'm thinking of buying some S.DICE shares,and so I'm trying to get an estimate of the bonds annual yield

100 shares = 0.001% of all shares
assuming dividend pay out of 1,000BTC / month to share holders = 0.01BTC dividend pay out / month for 100 shares
100 shares cost ~0.4, so an investment of 0.4BTC will yield 0.12BTC a year ~30% annual yield

not bad, eh?

should i hit the buy button?