rpietila or anyone that's holding XMR, can you give me some trading advice on this?
I have around 60 XMR, I bought some at 70K (yes panic buy, I thought it was going to replace DRK prices, and I still think it will but not that quick..) then I bought some at like 40K too.
Should I hold until around 90, then sold and buy back at a 60K correction?
Should I just get the coins out of the exchange (Poloniex) and cold storage them on my wallet?
If I do this to, I don't feel like it will be a quantity high enough to deliver me decent gains, so I would ideally like to try to get more XMR in small increases as I sell during the (I hope) what I think will be peaks. I've observed in most altcoins after a 40K increase or so, there is a correction that lasts a couple days or sometimes weeks.
My experience in trying to guide others in trading, is that even when I am exactly right, and do really well with the same strategy that I suggested to them, they tend to lose. If I am less than perfectly correct, or if I find it necessary to adapt my strategy due to exigent circumstances, even if I do well, they lose -- worse. And if I am wrong, they tend to do horribly badly. For this reason, I think it is usually against my interest and the interest of those I might otherwise assist, to suggest trading strategies. I will still provide estimates and predictions, but not strategies. Clever people will devise their own strategies, and give my predictions appropriate weight, and do better than if I try to help them by overspecifying, and less clever people, well, I might manage funds for them, but I won't advise them willingly.
David Latapie has a low-risk strategy, something like selling 20% every time price doubles, which is pretty infallible in an exponentially rising trend, and which is described in depth in another thread. Risto has a thread about bitcoin which is similar.
I just tell people to hold, and continue to buy, at a fixed regular interval, spending a fixed amount of their local currency each time, regardless of the price. This is almost impossible to mess up. The result is that when price is low, you get more than when price is high, so that unless price collapses, when you need to sell, the price is very likely to be higher than your average price. In XMR, I might add that buying more sooner, and waiting as long as possible to sell, is likely to serve you well. Trading is at least 2:3 a losing bet. Relatively few people make gains on daytrading. In XMR it is in many ways more difficult than in other instruments.
Don't invest more than you can afford to leave idle long enough to reap a significant gain. Don't sell at a lower price. If you feel compelled by the price to buy or to sell, it probably means you're about to get torn to pieces. Don't even look at it if price alone is going to lead you to buy high or to sell low.
What I definitely should not tell you is that I tend to think it is going for a top around 0068 over the next few days. I am personally inclined to hold as much as I can, until it looks toppy near that price, or some higher price, then reduce by 10% or so, and hope to recover those XMR below 0050. If I told you that, you would probably suffer the same sort of losses that others have when trying to implement my advice.
