Author

Topic: rpietila Altcoin Observer - page 161. (Read 387493 times)

hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
July 17, 2014, 05:16:12 AM
These numbers have not imploded gold, and there will be far far higher XMR lost per year than gold misplaced or lost per year.

Gold's block reward is adjustable. In times of low population growth and low economic activity, it is very near to zero. It can also reach upwards of 2% per year in boom times. Since antiquity, it has averaged only 0.3%, much less than is probably needed for network security alone.

On the other hand, the fiat regime since 1971 shows the terrible mislocations of capital caused by the "contained" inflation averaging 6% per year.

0.7% per year => monetary base doubles in 100 years, goes up a 1000-fold in 1000 years.
1.4% per year => monetary base quadruples in 100 years, goes up a 1,000,000fold in 1000 years.
2.1% per year => monetary base goes up 700% in 100 years, a billionfold in 1000 years.
2.8% per year => monetary base goes up 16-fold in 100 years, a trillionfold in 1000 years.
3.5% per year => monetary base goes up 32-fold in 100 years, a quadrillionfold in 1000 years.

Anyone who takes the time to read the above list, realizes that no astute whale is going to buy things whose inflation is more than ~1.5% per year unless they are for short term speculation only, or there is another compelling consideration except inflation.

Nonsense. You are not investing for 100 years. The nominal rise is meaningless. If the population + productivity is growing at the same rate, then there is 0 (ZERO!) relative nominal growth.

You are exaggerating because you don't show the relative figures.

So what determines the ideal %?

I suggested the long-term rate of debasement should mirror the population + productivity growth.

http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/current/lectures/human_pop/human_pop.html

Quote
The factors affecting global human population are very simple. They are fertility, mortality, initial population, and time. The current growth rate of ~1.3% per year is smaller than the peak which occurred a few decades ago (~2.1% per year in 1965-1970)

http://www.nber.org/papers/w15834

Quote
Its conclusion is that over the next 20 years (2007-2027) growth in real potential GDP will be 2.4 percent (the same as in 2000-07), growth in total economy labor productivity will be 1.7 percent, and growth in the more familiar concept of NFPB sector labor productivity will be 2.05 percent.

So that is a range between 1.3 + 1.7 = 3% to 2.1 + 2.05 = 4.2%, i.e. 3 - 4%.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
July 17, 2014, 05:14:30 AM
Does this mean that without a hard-fork for XMR the used addresses can be exposed because most transactions where send without mixing level?

The issue arises if all the other outputs with which you mixed are spent with mix=0 transactions, but your output is not spent, and this fact is known to the observer (for example the recipient). In fact if you use a high mixing factor this probably won't happen even if most transactions are mix=0, because there will usually be a few that are not mix=0 so not observable as spent.

In general though, the volume of transactions on the XMR network (or any of the cryptonote networks) is too low to provide a high level of privacy without extreme levels of mixing (and maybe not even then). Mixing relies on a needle-in-a-haystack principle and if the haystack is small, then trying to hide the needle is futile.

These issues will be addressed in various ways once the volume of transactions on the network is higher, and that alone will help a lot too.

If you are looking for the best privacy you can get currently, you should move your coins around between a few of your own wallets (with medium to high mixing each time, and taking care to avoid an identifiable pattern of timing) before sending them to their eventual destination. By doing that you are creating your own (small) haystack. But again, the potential for mixing to provide robust privacy on a lightly-used network is still limited.
sr. member
Activity: 245
Merit: 250
July 17, 2014, 05:08:25 AM
Zoidberg put together a starting presentation about the improvements Boolberry has made to transaction anonymity:

http://www.slideshare.net/boolberry/boolberry-solves-cryptonoteflaws-37055246

It's nice - I hadn't quite grasped it well before, and this made the issue much more clear.

Monero devs already made those improvements. See the below quote.


It refers to a well known privacy issue on CN coins. We've had a fix for this in the development for weeks now after corresponding with a Bitcoin core devs that should be more effective than the solution for Boolberry, we're just waiting until the core of the software is more mature before we roll it out.

Just curious, can you(or someone) point me where exactly in sources did they fix it ?
May be i miss something, but as i konw they have the same core as bytecoin and didn't made a hardfork yet.

See last few replies -- celestio misspoke.

Ok.
So, you going to make hard-fork in XMR to fix this ?

Does this mean that without a hard-fork for XMR the used addresses can be exposed because most transactions where send without mixing level?
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1000
Antifragile
July 17, 2014, 04:27:18 AM
But the fact is that all inflationary crypto dies.  No one wants it.  Without a gun put to their head, no one will take inflationary money if there is any viable alternative.  Demurrage only works under duress.

If you've been paying attention, the government in the US is making or enforcing laws regarding cryptocurrency to empower the effects of Gresham's law, where holding deflationary currency just gets you more paperwork and taxes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham's_law

The only question is, was this coincidence or conspiracy to continue the status quo.

They are at the state of hoping to have some serious regulation in place in about two years time.
There will be minor regulatory controls implimented along the way.

HUGE money is entering the space. In two years time, the question is, will we be past the point
Of no return regarding cryptos? It most certainly looks so. The Trojan Horse has already entered
Zhe banking system.

It looks like the US will be for it. Weak currencies like the Argentinian one, will see a flood into
Cryptos. I really wonder, in this age of smartphones, if Greshams law even applies at all...
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
July 17, 2014, 04:08:33 AM
These numbers have not imploded gold, and there will be far far higher XMR lost per year than gold misplaced or lost per year.

Gold's block reward is adjustable. In times of low population growth and low economic activity, it is very near to zero. It can also reach upwards of 2% per year in boom times. Since antiquity, it has averaged only 0.3%, much less than is probably needed for network security alone.

On the other hand, the fiat regime since 1971 shows the terrible mislocations of capital caused by the "contained" inflation averaging 6% per year.

0.7% per year => monetary base doubles in 100 years, goes up a 1000-fold in 1000 years.
1.4% per year => monetary base quadruples in 100 years, goes up a 1,000,000fold in 1000 years.
2.1% per year => monetary base goes up 700% in 100 years, a billionfold in 1000 years.
2.8% per year => monetary base goes up 16-fold in 100 years, a trillionfold in 1000 years.
3.5% per year => monetary base goes up 32-fold in 100 years, a quadrillionfold in 1000 years.

Anyone who takes the time to read the above list, realizes that no astute whale is going to buy things whose inflation is more than ~1.5% per year unless they are for short term speculation only, or there is another compelling consideration except inflation.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
July 16, 2014, 10:17:42 PM
When XMR forks, change the block time back to it's original 2 minutes.  I would personally make the block reward a continuous 1% as well.  The risk for the coin failing is far higher set to 0 or a small number than it is for 1%.  It's a no brainer chess move.  We already know less than 1% is useless, as seen in coins like Quark.  1% is the lowest the non-zero, continuous block reward should be, maybe even going as high as 2%, but I would use 1% as a conservative number.

These numbers have not imploded gold, and there will be far far higher XMR lost per year than gold misplaced or lost per year.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
July 16, 2014, 10:04:21 PM
Zoidberg put together a starting presentation about the improvements Boolberry has made to transaction anonymity:

http://www.slideshare.net/boolberry/boolberry-solves-cryptonoteflaws-37055246

It's nice - I hadn't quite grasped it well before, and this made the issue much more clear.

Monero devs already made those improvements. See the below quote.


It refers to a well known privacy issue on CN coins. We've had a fix for this in the development for weeks now after corresponding with a Bitcoin core devs that should be more effective than the solution for Boolberry, we're just waiting until the core of the software is more mature before we roll it out.

Just curious, can you(or someone) point me where exactly in sources did they fix it ?
May be i miss something, but as i konw they have the same core as bytecoin and didn't made a hardfork yet.

See last few replies -- celestio misspoke.

Ok.
So, you going to make hard-fork in XMR to fix this ?

Future plans will be discussed....in the future Smiley

I would add though, that we are not convinced that the BBR approach is obviously the best one. It has disadvantages, I'm pretty sure you are already aware of them, and have decided on what you believe to be the appropriate trade offs. We will do the same. With respect to the trade-offs, I will leave it to you to discuss your own coin rather than make comments that could be interpreted as "trashing" another coin (not intended that way in any case).
hero member
Activity: 976
Merit: 646
July 16, 2014, 09:55:33 PM
Zoidberg put together a starting presentation about the improvements Boolberry has made to transaction anonymity:

http://www.slideshare.net/boolberry/boolberry-solves-cryptonoteflaws-37055246

It's nice - I hadn't quite grasped it well before, and this made the issue much more clear.

Monero devs already made those improvements. See the below quote.


It refers to a well known privacy issue on CN coins. We've had a fix for this in the development for weeks now after corresponding with a Bitcoin core devs that should be more effective than the solution for Boolberry, we're just waiting until the core of the software is more mature before we roll it out.

Just curious, can you(or someone) point me where exactly in sources did they fix it ?
May be i miss something, but as i konw they have the same core as bytecoin and didn't made a hardfork yet.

See last few replies -- celestio misspoke.

Ok.
So, you going to make hard-fork in XMR to fix this ?




legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
July 16, 2014, 09:53:15 PM
Zoidberg put together a starting presentation about the improvements Boolberry has made to transaction anonymity:

http://www.slideshare.net/boolberry/boolberry-solves-cryptonoteflaws-37055246

It's nice - I hadn't quite grasped it well before, and this made the issue much more clear.

Monero devs already made those improvements. See the below quote.


It refers to a well known privacy issue on CN coins. We've had a fix for this in the development for weeks now after corresponding with a Bitcoin core devs that should be more effective than the solution for Boolberry, we're just waiting until the core of the software is more mature before we roll it out.

Just curious, can you(or someone) point me where exactly in sources did they fix it ?
May be i miss something, but as i konw they have the same core as bytecoin and didn't made a hardfork yet.

See last few replies -- celestio misspoke.


hero member
Activity: 976
Merit: 646
July 16, 2014, 09:49:04 PM
Zoidberg put together a starting presentation about the improvements Boolberry has made to transaction anonymity:

http://www.slideshare.net/boolberry/boolberry-solves-cryptonoteflaws-37055246

It's nice - I hadn't quite grasped it well before, and this made the issue much more clear.

Monero devs already made those improvements. See the below quote.


It refers to a well known privacy issue on CN coins. We've had a fix for this in the development for weeks now after corresponding with a Bitcoin core devs that should be more effective than the solution for Boolberry, we're just waiting until the core of the software is more mature before we roll it out.

Just curious, can you(or someone) point me where exactly in sources did they fix it ?
May be i miss something, but as i konw they have the same core as bytecoin and didn't made a hardfork yet.

Zoidberg

sr. member
Activity: 770
Merit: 250
July 16, 2014, 09:33:09 PM
Zoidberg put together a starting presentation about the improvements Boolberry has made to transaction anonymity:

http://www.slideshare.net/boolberry/boolberry-solves-cryptonoteflaws-37055246

It's nice - I hadn't quite grasped it well before, and this made the issue much more clear.

Monero devs already made those improvements. See the below quote.

No, not these improvements specifically, but we have a plan in place to address the same issues, after some other changes are made first (database, etc.)


Yea, sorry, I worded it wrong. I meant it's already thought out, and will come in place later.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
July 16, 2014, 09:31:39 PM
Zoidberg put together a starting presentation about the improvements Boolberry has made to transaction anonymity:

http://www.slideshare.net/boolberry/boolberry-solves-cryptonoteflaws-37055246

It's nice - I hadn't quite grasped it well before, and this made the issue much more clear.

Monero devs already made those improvements. See the below quote.

No, not these improvements specifically, but we have a plan in place to address the same issues, after some other changes are made first (database, etc.)
sr. member
Activity: 770
Merit: 250
July 16, 2014, 09:29:24 PM
Zoidberg put together a starting presentation about the improvements Boolberry has made to transaction anonymity:

http://www.slideshare.net/boolberry/boolberry-solves-cryptonoteflaws-37055246

It's nice - I hadn't quite grasped it well before, and this made the issue much more clear.

Monero devs already made those improvements. See the below quote.


It refers to a well known privacy issue on CN coins. We've had a fix for this in the development for weeks now after corresponding with a Bitcoin core devs that should be more effective than the solution for Boolberry, we're just waiting until the core of the software is more mature before we roll it out.
dga
hero member
Activity: 737
Merit: 511
July 16, 2014, 08:47:41 PM
Zoidberg put together a starting presentation about the improvements Boolberry has made to transaction anonymity:

http://www.slideshare.net/boolberry/boolberry-solves-cryptonoteflaws-37055246

It's nice - I hadn't quite grasped it well before, and this made the issue much more clear.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
July 16, 2014, 06:54:38 PM
But the fact is that all inflationary crypto dies.  No one wants it.  Without a gun put to their head, no one will take inflationary money if there is any viable alternative.  Demurrage only works under duress.

If you've been paying attention, the government in the US is making or enforcing laws regarding cryptocurrency to empower the effects of Gresham's law, where holding deflationary currency just gets you more paperwork and taxes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham's_law

The only question is, was this coincidence or conspiracy to continue the status quo.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
July 16, 2014, 04:05:47 PM
Listen, this is important:

If there is a sustained increase in the value of money, it must result from the economy sustainably growing more than the monetary base. This is not terrible long term. It is simply that everybody gets richer:
- savers get richer, since they can buy more even without interest on savings
- producers get more richer, because otherwise they would be saving instead of producing.

And the fact that the economy is growing more than the money supply, must stay in force. Otherwise it is no deflationary environment any more.

Therefore, "deflation" (sustained decrease of general price level) is always good and never bad. It is a market phenomenon that tells the society that "guys, we are doing good!" Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1049
July 16, 2014, 03:15:36 PM
People whining about continuous, non-zero block rewards look like fools to anyone with common sense.  There's this thing that exists called strong encryption where people that own the coins are eventually going to die or misplace them somehow, and the outside world will never have a chance to get to many of those coins.  It's the equivalent of having everyone on the planet bury their life savings on the ocean floor instead of using a bank.  

It doesn't matter. Coins are fractional. Instead of using 10 coins to do a transaction, you'll simply use 5 if half the coins are lost - because the value of the remaining coins will double due to scarcity.

Given that you can go up to less than 1 coin (with 0.5, 0.2, 0.0003 etc) it's not a problem in any way.

Yes but then you create a deflationary currency which can be argued isn't economically viable. Look at the places that have deflationary currencies and see if you think its a great idea.

The problem of deflationary impact is non-existant in cryptocurrencies as they are supplementary currencies that do not affect the economy at large.

The problem of a deflationary currency is when that specific currency is also a national currency, dictating the macro-environment and economic operations within a specific national economy. In other words, when people transact with a decreasing number of money, the GDP goes down.

If a country continues to issue toilet-paper money (inflated money), it can keep its economy moving. However citizens do have the option of using cryptos, gold, silver etc as a store of value. The government can still pay its budget and deficits though since its issuing new money.

The whole demonization of deflationary currencies, in terms of cryptos, makes the erroneous assumption that they are the only type of money available - when they are not. They exist within a broader ecosystem of various types of money and therefore do not really set the tempo of the ecosystem. Governments do (dictate the tempo) with their fiat scam money issuance.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1000
July 16, 2014, 02:53:31 PM
The simple fact is deflationary currency economically incentivises saving rather than spending which is terrible long term.

Listen, this is important:

If there is a sustained increase in the value of money, it must result from the economy sustainably growing more than the monetary base. This is not terrible long term. It is simply that everybody gets richer:
- savers get richer, since they can buy more even without interest on savings
- producers get more richer, because otherwise they would be saving instead of producing.

And the fact that the economy is growing more than the money supply, must stay in force. Otherwise it is no deflationary environment any more.

Therefore, "deflation" (sustained decrease of general price level) is always good and never bad. It is a market phenomenon that tells the society that "guys, we are doing good!" Smiley

Do you believe in perfect market that will never produce things more than what people is able to consume? No? Because of the greediness of people
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1000
Antifragile
July 16, 2014, 02:53:03 PM

The simple fact is deflationary currency econnomically incentiveses saving rather than spending which is terrible long term.
Inflationary currencies obviously do the opposite and incentivise spending and creating debt.


Savings is only terrible if our "handlers" want to raise lots of money from the taxes of our labor.
If we bought less, we would need less money. Don't let the word "productivity" fool you, we are not machines and we
don't need stuff to make us happy. Luckily these Cryptos are global, so we are all in it together, and being all in it together
means we all can stop working 40 hour weeks (I already stopped that years ago) and all stop buying and consuming more
than we need.

Once we stop spending so much, governments will have much less money in which to tax, which means on top of the already
shrinking money supply via cryptos (much much more difficult to fund wars), governments will DRASTICALLY lose their power. (Hopefully corporations acting as Nation States as well).
But no fear, these algorithms are more than just for money. Just throw in some heart and we are really our own governments,
for the people and by the people, no more of "buy" the people.  Grin  I'm really looking forward to what these App coins do regarding governing.

Its about sharing
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1000
Antifragile
July 16, 2014, 02:40:52 PM
Every system that is cheatable will be cheated, humans are greedy and will exploit everything they can.

Thus your idea is totally horrible Wink

I am afraid you are confusing Western Civilization (which has been usurped and manipulated) with mankind.
For a better example of mankind look at those more "primitive" peoples. They like to share, they see themselves as a part of things (and rightfully so). There is no reason for greed as why would you need more than there is, which belongs to all of us? It makes no sense... 

Unless you have been pitted against your fellow man to compete, accrue, challenge, etc. An operational reboot might be in order, not to mention opening ones heart.

I think Jimi Hendrix (the sage) said it pretty well, when the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace. That is a self evident truth, but one must take the blinders off.

Regarding Cryptos and reaching that "goal", it is just a step in the right direction. It is a disruptive technology that will disrupt and get us away from the hoarding mentality.
And these alts are just a bit more Trojanistic medicine to add to the Trojan soup. Ain't it lovely?

But, its really quite simple,
Its about sharing

I am not even sure i even get your point, but it takes just a single greedy person or government to cheat such a system and stop the inflation. Cryptocurrency should be a zerotrust system with tight non-cheatable rules thus such stuff simply doesnt belong into them...

You know the story about adam and eve Wink An apple ruined everything.

My point is that people are not inherently greedy or bad, quite the opposite.
True, in that it takes a single bad apple (aaaahhh, now I know where that expression comes from!), to make it bad for everyone else.
Hence, these decentralized, consensus based Crypto technologies are really a step in the right direction. They sort of change
our thinking AND start us questioning what money really is. Every governments (and more so banks) worst nightmare - Trust-less money based on algorithms (and yes bankers - it is open source!)
Curiosity is back again...

IAS
Jump to: