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Topic: rpietila Altcoin Observer - page 160. (Read 387493 times)

legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1002
amarha
July 18, 2014, 04:31:54 AM
We are getting close to the xmr price/difficulty level where spot instances can profitably mine. If that happens a lot of hash can be brought online quickly with nothing but a credit card - perhaps as much as 10 mhps. This dilutes the rest of the miners, so that if the new miners hoard then  supply declines, such that price rises.  If someone with a lot of confidence were willing to take the risk (and given the degree of support between 45 and 50 the downside risk holding time is probably less than 40 days - they might actually be able to accumulate at a discount with a large enough cloud mine, within a day or two.  I won't attempt it, mostly because I am too streched already.
just wondering which miner are you referring to? cause the gpu miners for CN are not that gud. cpu mining is just too painful on spots.

What do you mean by painful when using spots? Isn't it just a simple matter of whether it's profitable to spin up as many as you can afford or not?
sr. member
Activity: 1092
Merit: 254
July 18, 2014, 04:20:22 AM
We are getting close to the xmr price/difficulty level where spot instances can profitably mine. If that happens a lot of hash can be brought online quickly with nothing but a credit card - perhaps as much as 10 mhps. This dilutes the rest of the miners, so that if the new miners hoard then  supply declines, such that price rises.  If someone with a lot of confidence were willing to take the risk (and given the degree of support between 45 and 50 the downside risk holding time is probably less than 40 days - they might actually be able to accumulate at a discount with a large enough cloud mine, within a day or two.  I won't attempt it, mostly because I am too streched already.
just wondering which miner are you referring to? cause the gpu miners for CN are not that gud. cpu mining is just too painful on spots.
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1002
amarha
July 18, 2014, 03:50:33 AM
My question is, why would they make so massive a screw up? They could have done at least a token announcement somewhere and then no one could yell "premine!". It wouldn't have affected the number of coins they got by much, there weren't nearly as many people into crypto around 2 years ago.

Two years ago? Are you thinking of Maria's Bytecoin?
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
July 18, 2014, 03:48:46 AM
We are getting close to the xmr price/difficulty level where spot instances can profitably mine. If that happens a lot of hash can be brought online quickly with nothing but a credit card - perhaps as much as 10 mhps. This dilutes the rest of the miners, so that if the new miners hoard then  supply declines, such that price rises.  If someone with a lot of confidence were willing to take the risk (and given the degree of support between 45 and 50 the downside risk holding time is probably less than 40 days - they might actually be able to accumulate at a discount with a large enough cloud mine, within a day or two.  I won't attempt it, mostly because I am too streched already.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
July 17, 2014, 05:49:43 PM
Monero is the clear leader of the group now, and is soon to be well established among the second tier of cryptocoins (first tier of altcoins).

I happen to know more large and astute bitcoin holders than most of us. It is unbelievable that 75% of the people that I am talking about (holders of 1,000-100,000 BTC) are between "curious" to "very positive" towards Monero, even though the same guys generally don't own any altcoins (the small volume makes it difficult to own them anyway and guys of this caliber usually see where there is value and where there is not).
legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 1131
July 17, 2014, 05:46:10 PM
If history repeats itself, we should have an increase from 2.3 by a multiplier around 5.71 for a price of 13
I suspect it'll be a little bit lower as the market seems more and more aware of XMR technological prowess but also of its high emission rate which we could find proof in the little decrease of the multiplier between B1-T1 and B2-T2

Between now and 13 seems very encouraging.
We'll see.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
July 17, 2014, 05:30:33 PM
My question is, why would they make so massive a screw up? They could have done at least a token announcement somewhere and then no one could yell "premine!". It wouldn't have affected the number of coins they got by much, there weren't nearly as many people into crypto around 2 years ago.

Because maybe not everything happened as claimed?

Anyway it doesn't matter. Monero is the clear leader of the group now, and is soon to be well established among the second tier of cryptocoins (first tier of altcoins). It doesn't share the murky history, doesn't have a premine/ninjamine, etc. Time to leave the past behind.

hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 500
July 17, 2014, 05:23:17 PM
My question is, why would they make so massive a screw up? They could have done at least a token announcement somewhere and then no one could yell "premine!". It wouldn't have affected the number of coins they got by much, there weren't nearly as many people into crypto around 2 years ago.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
July 17, 2014, 05:21:17 PM
The CryptoNote team is behind Bytecoin, right?

No. CryptoNote team has their own reference implementation named CryptoNoteCoin which is developed for education only. CryptoNote team said they did not join force with a development team that developed a premined coin for profit

So in truth it can only be said that they claim not to be behind it. But without any independent evidence or verification we don't really know anything about what happened there. Thankfully the community has moved on to Monero from that whole shady scene.

hero member
Activity: 723
Merit: 503
July 17, 2014, 12:09:25 PM
It's all very rudimentary so i dont know what's its worth but I've analyzed the relationship between the latest 2 tops and the latest 2 bottoms:

T1 = first top = 8 mbtc
T2 = second top = 10 mbtc
B1 = first bottom = 1.75 mbtc
B2 = second bottom = 2.3 mbtc

When poloniex appeared, we went from 8 to 1.75, meaning the priced decreased by 4.57. Then we went from 1.75 to 10, meaning the price increased by 5.71.

Then we went from 10 to 2.3, meaning the price decreased by 4.34.

If history repeats itself, we should have an increase from 2.3 by a multiplier around 5.71 for a price of 13

I suspect it'll be a little bit lower as the market seems more and more aware of XMR technological prowess but also of its high emission rate which we could find proof in the little decrease of the multiplier between B1-T1 and B2-T2

hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 500
July 17, 2014, 11:40:35 AM
The CryptoNote team is behind Bytecoin, right?

No. CryptoNote team has their own reference implementation named CryptoNoteCoin which is developed for education only. CryptoNote team said they did not join force with a development team that developed a premined coin for profit

Hmm. Interesting. I would have thought that they would have been involved with Bytecoin since it was the first CN coin, right?

They did all that work inventing this novel technology and haven't made any obvious attempt to gain from it yet?
Such altruists.
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1002
amarha
July 17, 2014, 11:37:32 AM
The CryptoNote team is behind Bytecoin, right?

No. CryptoNote team has their own reference implementation named CryptoNoteCoin which is developed for education only. CryptoNote team said they did not join force with a development team that developed a premined coin for profit

Hmm. Interesting. I would have thought that they would have been involved with Bytecoin since it was the first CN coin, right?

They did all that work inventing this novel technology and haven't made any obvious attempt to gain from it yet?
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1000
July 17, 2014, 11:13:51 AM
The CryptoNote team is behind Bytecoin, right?

No. CryptoNote team has their own reference implementation named CryptoNoteCoin which is developed for education only. CryptoNote team said they did not join force with a development team that developed a premined coin for profit
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1002
amarha
July 17, 2014, 10:15:32 AM
The CryptoNote team is behind Bytecoin, right?

Is there any animosity between the original CN people and XMR/BBR teams?

Or did they just plow a bunch of money into their forks in order to ride the wave?
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1005
July 17, 2014, 10:12:39 AM
Zoidberg put together a starting presentation about the improvements Boolberry has made to transaction anonymity:

http://www.slideshare.net/boolberry/boolberry-solves-cryptonoteflaws-37055246

It's nice - I hadn't quite grasped it well before, and this made the issue much more clear.

Monero devs already made those improvements. See the below quote.


It refers to a well known privacy issue on CN coins. We've had a fix for this in the development for weeks now after corresponding with a Bitcoin core devs that should be more effective than the solution for Boolberry, we're just waiting until the core of the software is more mature before we roll it out.

Just curious, can you(or someone) point me where exactly in sources did they fix it ?
May be i miss something, but as i konw they have the same core as bytecoin and didn't made a hardfork yet.

See last few replies -- celestio misspoke.

Ok.
So, you going to make hard-fork in XMR to fix this ?

We may simply softfork as we will likely go with a different solution than for Boolberry. However, there are other faulty components of cryptonote that will likely later require a hard fork.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1000
July 17, 2014, 08:56:59 AM
XMR rally is so nice. DRK is up too. It looks like people is bored with BTC price movements
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1000
July 17, 2014, 08:36:42 AM
Until now, BBR leads CryptoNote coins in fixing bugs and implementing core features. I hope that XMR can catch up it soon.

XMR has most crowded teams (7 devs, BBR has 3 or 4 devs)
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
July 17, 2014, 07:26:04 AM
Zoidberg put together a starting presentation about the improvements Boolberry has made to transaction anonymity:

http://www.slideshare.net/boolberry/boolberry-solves-cryptonoteflaws-37055246

It's nice - I hadn't quite grasped it well before, and this made the issue much more clear.

Monero devs already made those improvements. See the below quote.

No, not these improvements specifically, but we have a plan in place to address the same issues, after some other changes are made first (database, etc.)

So it's vaporware?

Exactly right, which is why I corrected the misstatement (by celestio) that the improvements had already been made.
hero member
Activity: 966
Merit: 1003
July 17, 2014, 07:13:56 AM
Zoidberg put together a starting presentation about the improvements Boolberry has made to transaction anonymity:

http://www.slideshare.net/boolberry/boolberry-solves-cryptonoteflaws-37055246

It's nice - I hadn't quite grasped it well before, and this made the issue much more clear.

Monero devs already made those improvements. See the below quote.

No, not these improvements specifically, but we have a plan in place to address the same issues, after some other changes are made first (database, etc.)

So it's vaporware?


is implemented in 2 weeks.

So vaporware. Let's take up the discussion again when it (or whatever other vaporware) is implemented and demonstrated to work in the field.

Smiley
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
July 17, 2014, 05:43:54 AM
Q: What is 3% annual debasement to a layman?

A: $25 per month for $10,000 in savings.

Q: What is 1% annual debasement to a layman?

A: $8.33 per month for $10,000 in savings.

But if the demand increases faster than the supply of the coin (i.e. the population rises) and or the production of the economy rises (i.e. productivity rises), it could eliminate those costs above because in the former case the price of the coin rises and in the latter case the purchasing power of each coin rises.
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