Topic: rpietila Altcoin Observer - page 65. (Read 387552 times)

Sharex, and Sharecoin ?  You can get some back with your free distribution of 7080 Lottoshares.

In order to be a viable candidate for the monopoly position of reference liquidity provider in a given liquidity niche, a currency must first and foremost provide proven reliable liquidity.  That can't happen instantly.  If another technology should emerge, with the fate to eventually displace XMR, it will be obvious long, long before the fact.  The sooner you buy in to XMR, the larger is your margin of safety to transition to XMR's successor when it emerges.

This approach is practically tested.  I bought in to DRK before XMR emerged, and flipped it before it peaked, started accumulating XMR before the first exchange, and accumulating heavily since the post-liquidity stabilization occurred.  I gained from DRK's rise, avoided its fall.  That does not guarantee that I will do it again, if a successor should emerge, but it is proof that it is possible.  My skills are not so extraordinary that I am uniquely able to execute such a plan.  Moreover, if I should switch in future, I will be motivated by self-interest to inform the public, contemporaneously, so that if I do have an unusual talent in this regard, you can piggy-back on it.

I'd like to see everyone who owns BTC accumulate XMR in roughly equal numbers.  I think it would be good for everyone involved.  And even for those who are not involved:  Sine secretum non libertas.

Fabulous example.  Thank you for the insight.

Whoa...helluva post right there!

It's usually easy to detect (a). Whales that does (a) use paid shill accounts and rarely reveal that they are involved, so when the shitcoin crashes they can switch to another without loosing any credibility. They don't talk so openly and consistently like Risto does. He's risking his reputation here, being open about his choices since the beginning.
Also if Risto really wanted to pump/dump XMR I think the price swing would be much more violent. The volatility of XMR is pretty low (lol, I know) for an alt-coin.

Yeah - I mean honestly it would be much better for all involved if the best anon tech coin pulled ahead sooner rather than later.  I would be more comfortable putting $10 into a coin that had won the anon tech coin race than $2 in Monero at this point.  Because the (and I'm sorry - there will be only one winner) best case scenario for all involved is for this to happen sooner rather than later.

I know people talk all the time about competition is good.  But actually in a currency where consensus and adoption drive value.  Competition is not good as long as the currency is not abused.

So yeah - if Risto is trying to get this one ahead of the pack and on track sooner then I can maybe see how all this adds up.  But the phrase "Buy cuz I have buddies who're going to push this over 100Million" reminded me of some of the shit I read in the XC thread.

"I'm going to tell you guys something.  I'm going to sit down with some very important people.  Some people with some very big pockets next week.  Some people who plan on investing and if they have to buy this entire coin - they will."

It just doesn't really add up to say "I have people who on my word will drive the value of this thing thru the roof so buy right now" unless you have some misgivings and you don't think the coin is ready for your primetime investor (which to his credit I suppose I can see why that might be the case).   Or you are blowing smoke and looking for an exit point.

I honestly wonder sometimes if the winner of the anon race hasn't shown it's head yet and it is lurking somewhere in the shadows.  Maybe a dumb gut feeling ...


This line made no sense (sorry).  It should have read.

The long game is the only game where most people win at the expense of no one rather than where a few win at the expense of most people.  

One of the main differences of Monero is that it mainly attracts people who choose (b)

lol if you plan to do it because of that you might do it OK this time, but you will fail in most cases in your life. Read about Monero. See who develops it. You met some of the community here. See who else is in. Check Monero competition. If you like what you see, buy some. If not dont.

I disliked the phrasing, but let's assume there are two plausible interpretations:

(a)  Pump!  <-- Obvious possibility.  I've wondered it myself:  Did Risto buy a lot of XMR early (yes), and is he planning on riding a sequence of P&Ds to profit?

(b)  Ensuring continued, steady growth of the currency in a way that maintains community *and developer* excitement and encourages some forms of long-term adoption.

The "win-win" is (b), as Aminorex noted above.  It's a long game:  I own a lot of X, so I'm going to do things that I can to increase its fundamental value.  It's not crazy to think that encouraging sustained, longer-term interest in a currency could do that.  It keeps donations (or value) flowing to the developers, it keeps holders happy because they're getting value, etc.  Happy developers and continued interest yield more improvements to the currency and more potential users.  (a) is the quick profit.  Both of these schemes could be seen as selfish, because they're both designed to produce value for Risto.  "Selfish" is also a reasonable term for "financially rational."

I couldn't tell you which of those is reality, but it's not crazy to think that it's (b).  These same techniques apply on the stock market -- consider, e.g., Mitt Romney / Bain Capital's tricks with Ampad and Dade Behring on one hand (acquire, rip out fast profit, dump to bankruptcy), and Warren Buffett's style at Berkshire Hathaway (acquire, invest, improve, hold for the long term).  Hard to tell which it really is until you have hindsight, or trust.

The long game is smart, selfish.  I'm not sure about heroic 

Although it is the only game where most people lose at the expense of a few.  Maybe I should give him/Monero supporters more credit.  It just irritates me to see "You should invest in this coin because I have buddies with hundreds of millions I will call eventually"

I've seen it before and it didn't end well for the little guys who pumped the coin. 

These threads have helped regain a little confidence after getting painfully burned in sharex

Currently trusting in XMR and the guys, including RP

QFT

Risto, you have correctly distilled the reason folks are confused by what appears as a magnanimous public offering of information gained through your expensive research efforts into thinking you are manipulating them with false claims.  It is because you are manipulating us with true claims, and with actual magnanimity.  You are looking at the long game, not the pump and dump short game that people have become accustomed by charlatans.

This shows long term strategic thinking selfishness, rather than get rich quick selfishness.
The long game is also the heroic one.  It is the game that may survive us all.  The work of a magus not a charlatan.

It matters not whether you care most about Bitcoin as asset/currency, Monero for privacy, Counterparty for advanced block chain features or another.  What is most needed for all of these is not money and investment, it is people, action and knowledge.
I would rather have 100 investors with $100 each than 1 with 500 times that amount if my goals are long term and win/win the opposite would be true if I wanted to grab and run.
People are the true wealth of the world.  I write this with the thought of Hal Finney going into the cryonic phase of his journey today, with the hope and confidence that if we can keep this world from a self inflicted doom, that he can return again healthy and warm after ALS is conquered.  Let us get to that future with a renewed energy and sense of purpose.

My Italian friends have a saying: "At the end of the chess game, the king and the pawn go into the same box".  Lesson being, it is what happens on the board that matters.  Well played, Risto.

prove it has enough network effect to not ruin your reputation by failing?, - That doesn't make any sense, there isn't that much liquidity on the markets right now, so obviously anyone in their right mind would want More users to come and join/mine/buy/sell, to provide liquidity, so that when you buy the price wouldn't go up exponentially.

or you're pumping it up so you can get out without losing because you've found it's going to be replaced with something else? - That also makes no sense, rptiella has said many times Over and Over that XMR is the only altcoin he holds besides BTC itself.

So you won't sell it to your big buddies until lots of little fish are in it because you want to prove it has enough network effect to not ruin your reputation by failing?  Meantime you're pumping it to help it get the network effect to little fishes ... or you're pumping it up so you can get out without losing because you've found it's going to be replaced with something else?  Maybe that's in development?

Like I said ... your "I'm going to use my biddies to pump this thing to the moon ... get in now so we can get it up to the point where I can sell it to them" ... just.  Kinda alarms me.

I sorta see the logic.  But it's still kinda blatant shilling at best.

There are many games you can play.  Most alt traders are only familiar with games which are zero-sum, at best, in which there are winners and losers.  In those games, most players will lose.

The long-term investment game should be win-win, with no losers.  There's no problem with making money for random people on the Internet.  In fact, it is a necessary part of a successfully played game.  The surest way to lose is not to play.

The more diverse the investor base the better, the issue with almost every other alt is that the investor base is a small insular group.

Why more diverse? Because (1) it spreads the investor base to all corners of the globe instead of just tech heads, (2) this allows the expanded investor base to call upon more resources to better help the coin as opposed to calling on the same crowd with a narrow set of skills (programming and forum browsing).

Most alt coins investor base consist of graphics driver programmers, teenagers with free electricity and scammers. Rpietila is helping to grow Monero beyond the computer science department.

rpietila reply above makes sense. I understand that there is a lot of mistrust of motives in CryptoSpace. That is mainly down to the vast majority of coins being pump&dump schemes. I found it interesting to note how the new coins/schemes proliferated only after April 2013, and again after Nov (such a big expansion).

I have spent many years of my career with intrigue in financial markets, and my own philosophy (now) is to take most sensible comment at face value, then wait for contrary evidence to emerge. Given time you will either see confirmation or contradiction. Taper/step into investment positions accordingly. I know I have created a lot of wealth for 'random dudes', but it is immaterial to my own wealth or satisfaction.

Most people in my experience are actually well-meaning.

Monero is so small that it needs to grow. Big money does not come before middle-sized money, and they don't come after small money has already bought in.

It is not good for any coin if one group controls it. So it would be counterproductive for the coin (and me) to pump it among my buddies alone.

The history of altcoins proves this. Organic growth is better.

Probably has something to do with the fact that he seems to actively day trade XMR to increase his total holding. More volume is good for him.

Also, he's beginning a project to offer XMR options so that also ties in with what I was saying above.