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Topic: rpietila Altcoin Observer - page 66. (Read 387552 times)

member
Activity: 196
Merit: 12
August 29, 2014, 09:04:22 AM
I market bought 2100 XMR for a client. I don't by any way mean it's much, but seriously I can only make one phone call per day, to one of my best investor friends, to avoid the price rising too quickly.

The total wealth reachable by my mailing list is 100s of millions. Last time I bothered them was when I told that "Bitcoin is something that you should buy now, even without research, even with small money, as long as it is now". 2013-2-6.

No offense - but why would you be pumping the coin like this?  You are creating wealth for random dudes on forums if you plan on "eventually calling in the 100s of millions of dollars of big guns" instead of creating wealth for your investment network.  Your speech and actions tell different stories. 

As somebody pretty sold on Monero I just got a lot more concerned ...
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
August 29, 2014, 04:24:29 AM
I market bought 2100 XMR for a client. I don't by any way mean it's much, but seriously I can only make one phone call per day, to one of my best investor friends, to avoid the price rising too quickly.

The total wealth reachable by my mailing list is 100s of millions. Last time I bothered them was when I told that "Bitcoin is something that you should buy now, even without research, even with small money, as long as it is now". 2013-2-6.
legendary
Activity: 2702
Merit: 2053
Free spirit
August 29, 2014, 03:13:04 AM
Woot!  come on RPietila     Cool
legendary
Activity: 1554
Merit: 1000
August 29, 2014, 02:52:54 AM
In Polo's trollbox:
rpietila: I made a 4-minute phonecall. The results should be visible in 2 minutes...

Price is 4.5 mBTC now. Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 247
Merit: 250
August 29, 2014, 12:45:31 AM
Not sure exactly whats going on with boolberry but I am happily liquidating my small hedge there today,

BBR in talks with BTCD

Is Project DarkBerry confirmed?  All I've seen is BTCD guy pumping.

He is right to do so, because BBR offers leverage to XMR and has been severely undervalued for over a month.

As we are currently observing, when XMR has a good day BBR often has a great day.  And when it rains on XMR, it pours on BBR.   Wink

Not confirmed AFAIK. It will be fascinating to see what happens if it does go ahead, assuming Teleport performs. I imagine it would be huge decision for any anon devs to make.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
August 29, 2014, 12:13:28 AM
Not sure exactly whats going on with boolberry but I am happily liquidating my small hedge there today,

BBR in talks with BTCD

Is Project DarkBerry confirmed?  All I've seen is BTCD guy pumping.

He is right to do so, because BBR offers leverage to XMR and has been severely undervalued for over a month.

As we are currently observing, when XMR has a good day BBR often has a great day.  And when it rains on XMR, it pours on BBR.   Wink
sr. member
Activity: 247
Merit: 250
August 28, 2014, 11:27:05 PM
Not sure exactly whats going on with boolberry but I am happily liquidating my small hedge there today,

BBR in talks with BTCD
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
Bitmark Developer
August 28, 2014, 08:51:37 PM
In summary btc/ltc not doomed because too much infrastructure been built around them and  its where the big money is and is heading, upto 20 other alts could get into that action as well if it weren't for the scams in here and the kill or be killed attitude of many behind alts.

Is the infrastructure not portable?

I agree with you comment about scams and kill or be killed, it's those very reasons that leads us towards autonomy, running parallel to the set of alt-coins.
legendary
Activity: 1876
Merit: 1000
August 28, 2014, 08:41:01 PM
Perhaps it is good to interpret my own post because it wasn't obvious:

As with metals, the #1 is really valuable, but the #2 is only about 1/50 as valuable. Others are not even counted.

So will it be with coins, therefore do not buy coins that aim to be #3.

this is so true and what doomed Litecoin, I still think it has its merits but being silver of anything means being a lot less valuable besides being pegged to. XMR chances of surpassing BTC are bigger than of LTC, even though it still small.

No what doomed LTC is that it doesn't make a good silver. LTC aimed to be #2 which is fine according to rpietila's model, and so far it has done that, but it will likely fail to hold that spot in the future, and then at 3+ it is all over.

Think now if you did want to make it to the top 2 take a leaf out of the number 2s book. hint; it didn't get to number 2 by trying to take out or attack that that was above it.

LTC's not doomed at all, it was created taking into account why previous alts failed and in that its done a brilliant job. LTC's not going to fail at all because it has good infrastructure thats growing (as cryptos go), has some advantages over bitcoin when it comes to mass adoption (no anon dev etc).

Behind the scenes BTC has many hurdles to its upcoming ETF, knowing what they are (as its a project I'm on) I see litecoin would have an easier ride, thats not gone unnoticed Wink

As for the there can only be 2, there was a plan (via a company I part own) to list a package of alts as an ETF to follow straight after BTC ETF, to this point its been put on hold, and this forum has alot to do with that (hence my frustration with the continual scam coins around here).

In summary btc/ltc not doomed because too much infrastructure been built around them and  its where the big money is and is heading, upto 20 other alts could get into that action as well if it weren't for the scams in here and the kill or be killed attitude of many behind alts.



sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
August 28, 2014, 07:54:54 PM

STRONG (like a bull!) recovery continues!

Index 1: 85.09 (LTC recovery brings this back closer to Index 2)
Index 2: 86.81
Index 3: 81.78 (this one is the one that I think represents the total market the best)
Index 4: 82.39
Index 5: 88.21
Index 6: 86.62 (these last two are most volatile, it seems, because they are price-weighted)
meta: 85.15

Indexes have basically recovered halfway from their downturns.  Your portfolio may have seen a 33% increase over the last few days and possibly 12-13% in the last 36 hours.  If this is NOT the case, you might have chosen the wrong alts.

As of 20 minutes ago...

Index 1: 87.13
Index 2: 97.53 (remember, this index includes neither BTC or LTC, but might skew high)
Index 3: 92.93 (also includes neither BTC or LTC and I would claim this is the most pure-play, cap-weight alt index...contains a basket of 31 alts that are tops in combined volume/market cap.  If I re-balanced every WEEK, I think the number would be closer to Index 2)
Index 4: 84.24 (includes LTC, which is still down from the start of this index in early August.)
Index 5: 89.81
Index 6: 85.73 (indexes 5 and 6 are price-weighted, and the relative underperformance of BTC over the time period is actually baked into the weighted prices.  Honestly, I'm considering using BTC-denominated price starting with the next re-balance)
meta: 89.56

In the last four days, the biggest movements have come from Index 2 and Index 3.  Everything else is up around 5% or less since last update, but these indexes representing purest-play alts are up 10% or more in 4 days.

Since the beginning of the indexes on 8/4, BTC has gone from $590 and change to a shade over $500.  It looks as though alts plunged farther faster, but have been outperforming BTC in their recent recovery.



Amazing recovery continues...furthermore there are now some pretty significant divergences that separate the players from the also-rans.  Just my humble opinion, but this kind of market movement illustrates the value of indexing and the need for the resource in toolbox of anybody interested in alts.

Index 1: 105.57
Index 2: 128.54 (again, does not include BTC or LTC, but it does include all other currencies on coinmarketcap.  LTC has recovered from its recent depths, but still well below where it was early in August)
Index 3: 125.07 (I continue to believe that this one most closely approximates the alt market in the truest sense....it contains 31 alts selected by price/volume combination and re-balanced bi-weekly.  No BTC or LTC.  Cap weighted.  Give me a few months and I may very well offer an open-ended mutual fund type investment in this "basket" of alts!)
Index 4: 102.78 (LTC drags this back down a bit, but still over the August 4th level)
Index 5: 92.53
Index 6:  88.10
Meta index: 107.01

Remember, these indexes were largely in the 50's and 60's just 11 days ago when alts were taking a serious beating.  

Indexes 5 and 6 are price weighted, like the DJIA.  Interestingly they have NOT recovered quite as well.  From what I can tell, the reason is that the recovery has been especially acute in some of the higher-cap alts.  My quick check shows that Ripple has gone from $40mm in cap to $140mm and BTSX has gone from as low as $16mm to around $60mm right now.  

If your portfolio is full of those, you're looking at my index and asking why in the hell anybody would index.  If you're lugging around nothing but BTC and LTC, you can only wish you had a 25% return in August.  
dga
hero member
Activity: 737
Merit: 511
August 28, 2014, 07:49:20 PM
@dga: what has baffled me the most in your story is your disclaimer at the end: you're saying you're not holding any bitcoins. Really ?! anyway thanks for sharing:)

You would probably be surprised how many people there are who are interested in the technology but don't speculate on Bitcoin.

And then there are people who decide there is more money in investing or trading alts. Higher risk, higher reward.

Yup.  I think *coin is absolutely fascinating in a technical, economic, and social sense.  It took me a while to get hooked -- when I first heard of it a few years ago I blew it off as a stupid waste of electricity, but I was wrong.  Once I looked more deeply, it got me hooked.  But I try to keep my real investments very simple and safe and in ways that don't require my judgement to be right, because I don't think I'm good at predicting future value.  Some people seem to be, but whenever I get actively involved in, e.g., trying to pick what stocks to hold, I just lose more money than if I left everything in a diversified set of index funds.  So - no holding Bitcoin.  I've greatly enjoyed doing software projects related to it and could easily see doing more.  I love the ease of sending money using it and have been using it quite a bit that way, but I limit my exposure to volatility by paying coinbase an extra 1% now and then to move back and forth from USD.  I hope it destroys the high-fee remittances market some day. Smiley

Re the botnet comment:  Totally unrelated.  What I was doing was winding down around the time the botnets were starting to appear.  As one of the people who was suggesting that there *is* bot activity in XMR, I still maintain that position based upon the IRC logs I've seen of the botherder, but I don't think he/she/it/whatever actually had that significant an effect on the coin.  But it's possible that some of the earlier speculation about botnets might have been because of the advantaged miners -- there were certainly a lot of posts in the XMR thread wondering where the hash rate had come from (some from before I started playing).

sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
August 28, 2014, 07:34:15 PM
At the risk of leaving some sore toes in my wake, my academic self decided that I should continue documenting my experience in alt-coins.

Here's the Monero one:

http://da-data.blogspot.com/2014/08/minting-money-with-monero-and-cpu.html

That shit is awesome.  Great narrative, beautifully documented!  Thanks for sharing!
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
August 28, 2014, 05:13:11 PM
Lol how can you make coin demand with a botnet?  Mine it to remove supply?

Good question
full member
Activity: 149
Merit: 100
August 28, 2014, 05:10:51 PM
Im just pointing out that roughly 100 pages ago this thread and the official XMR thread were filled with "XMR BOTNET" and other garbage that has turned out to be false.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
August 28, 2014, 05:08:36 PM
Lol how can you make coin demand with a botnet?  Mine it to remove supply?

That´s what people call sarcasm.
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1002
amarha
August 28, 2014, 05:06:32 PM
At the risk of leaving some sore toes in my wake, my academic self decided that I should continue documenting my experience in alt-coins.

Here's the Monero one:

http://da-data.blogspot.com/2014/08/minting-money-with-monero-and-cpu.html

This would explain the "Monero Botnet" that was quite the rave 100ish pages ago

At the risk of leaving some sore toes in my wake, my academic self decided that I should continue documenting my experience in alt-coins.

Here's the Monero one:

http://da-data.blogspot.com/2014/08/minting-money-with-monero-and-cpu.html

This would explain the "Monero Botnet" that was quite the rave 100ish pages ago

What? I read that the devs of XMR use botnet to make fake demand for this coin. Is it true ?

This has nothing to do with people who mine XMR with botnets.
member
Activity: 196
Merit: 12
August 28, 2014, 05:00:29 PM
Lol how can you make coin demand with a botnet?  Mine it to remove supply?
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
August 28, 2014, 04:58:25 PM
At the risk of leaving some sore toes in my wake, my academic self decided that I should continue documenting my experience in alt-coins.

Here's the Monero one:

http://da-data.blogspot.com/2014/08/minting-money-with-monero-and-cpu.html

This would explain the "Monero Botnet" that was quite the rave 100ish pages ago

What? I read that the devs of XMR use botnet to make fake demand for this coin. Is it true ?
full member
Activity: 149
Merit: 100
August 28, 2014, 04:51:50 PM
At the risk of leaving some sore toes in my wake, my academic self decided that I should continue documenting my experience in alt-coins.

Here's the Monero one:

http://da-data.blogspot.com/2014/08/minting-money-with-monero-and-cpu.html

This would explain the "Monero Botnet" that was quite the rave 100ish pages ago
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1002
amarha
August 28, 2014, 04:48:35 PM
@dga: what has baffled me the most in your story is your disclaimer at the end: you're saying you're not holding any bitcoins. Really ?! anyway thanks for sharing:)

You would probably be surprised how many people there are who are interested in the technology but don't speculate on Bitcoin.

And then there are people who decide there is more money in investing or trading alts. Higher risk, higher reward.
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