Topic: rpietila Altcoin Observer - page 77. (Read 387552 times)

POW as an ever increasing resource drain could easily contribute to ruining the planet, I suppose a check might be when it realy no longer makes financial sense they stop. Nice that some POW at least try to create something meaningful that can be used elsewhere, like scientific research.

PoW is an unsustainable ever escalating arms race.
Even during the cold war USA vs. USSR managed to understand that it wasn't a great idea.

(not implying PoS is a good idea. Just that PoW is leagues far from perfect)

A possible contrarian indicator?

If you knew my solution, you would know that is false. There are not an unbounded number of people in the world. Remember I said it is unprofitable, so no one has an incentive to invest more. My solution is essentially one person one vote, but not in the way you would normally assume.

Surely I have given enough hints, you can deduce now what I have in mind. Any further incorrect assumptions, will not be corrected.

A possible contrarian indicator?

STRONG (like a bull!) recovery continues!

Index 1: 85.09 (LTC recovery brings this back closer to Index 2)
Index 2: 86.81
Index 3: 81.78 (this one is the one that I think represents the total market the best)
Index 4: 82.39
Index 5: 88.21
Index 6: 86.62 (these last two are most volatile, it seems, because they are price-weighted)
meta: 85.15

Indexes have basically recovered halfway from their downturns.  Your portfolio may have seen a 33% increase over the last few days and possibly 12-13% in the last 36 hours.  If this is NOT the case, you might have chosen the wrong alts.

If you knew my solution, you would know that is false. There are not an unbounded number of people in the world. Remember I said it is unprofitable, so no one has an incentive to invest more. My solution is essentially one person one vote, but not in the way you would normally assume.

Surely I have given enough hints, you can deduce now what I have in mind. Any further incorrect assumptions, will not be corrected.

Debt "money" (fiat) is the greatest contributor to misallocation and waste. Good thing is, anything is a step to the better in this arena.

We've had a big move up in the last 30 or so hours.  That doesn't surprise anybody who trades alts.  How does your portfolio compare with the market as a whole?

Here's a little update on the indexes I've been tracking.  

Index 1: cap-weighted, includes all cryptos except BTC was 61.92 30 hours ago, now at 72.75
Index 2: cap-weighted, includes all cryptos except BTC and LTC was 69.88 30 hours ago, now at 77.88

(LTC is still dragging down Index 1, but it has recovered with a little more strength as of right now)

Index 3: cap-weighted, includes a basket of 31 NON-LTC cryptos selected by cap/volume metrics was 63.86, now at 74.03
Index 4: cap-weighted, includes the basket of 31 PLUS LTC was 58.31, now at 70.47

(I still think Index 3 is actually the closest to what I'm trying to accomplish, which is to judge the general movement of the alt market as a whole.  REALLY interesting, IMO, to note that LTC dragged index 4 lower.  But the recovery of LTC didn't mean that index 4 has recovered stronger, as we found with Index 1 compared to Index 2.  My theory is that this justifies the basket selection as a good arbiter of alt direction.)

Index 5: price-weighted version of Index 3 was 56.01, now at 80.79
Index 6: price-weighted version of Index 4 was 54.72, now at 77.20

(Dow Jones is price-weighted.  S&P, Russell, most others are cap weighted.  I just set these up to see if there would be much difference.  Again, LTC provides downward weight.  Looks like these indexes are also more volatile.)

Meta index is 75.15.  This contains elements of all above.  

TL:DR If your alt portfolio is anything like the alt market as a whole, you may have been down 40%.  As of now, you're probably down 25%. If you're doing worse, you might either own LTC or you might be holding some of the alts that aren't in the top 50 in market cap, as they seem to be performing just a little bit worse.

Based on designs I've explored, I believe yes. Except for adding new features, you need to trust a developer to take control. Once you are willing to lock the features into stone, it can run on autopilot if the features are resilient enough. When it eventually fails, you design a new currency learning from the past mistakes.

It is profitable to mine XMR.

POW as an ever increasing resource drain could easily contribute to ruining the planet

If you knew my solution, you would know that is false. There are not an unbounded number of people in the world. Remember I said it is unprofitable, so no one has an incentive to invest more. My solution is essentially one person one vote, but not in the way you would normally assume.

Surely I have given enough hints, you can deduce now what I have in mind. Any further incorrect assumptions, will not be corrected.

POW as an ever increasing resource drain could easily contribute to ruining the planet

Once you are willing to lock the features into stone, it can run on autopilot if the features are resilient enough. When it eventually fails, you design a new currency learning from the past mistakes.

If PoW is unprofitable, then the only miner will be someone mining for no profit...

...most likely an attacker.

Why not 0035? 

This idea might work in the future, when/if tokens have more trust and credit worthiness than dollars.

I told everyone upthread, the only way to make PoW work decentralized, is to make it entirely unprofitable. That is the last hint you are going to get.

If it wasn't profitable, it would likely not be done in the first place.
Quite different.

Profitable doesn't imply valuable.

PoW is an unsustainable ever escalating arms race.

And currency can't all end up in the hands of the power-law distributed savers. It also has to be continuously debased so that spenders can spend. Savers and spenders are symbiotic.