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Topic: rpietila Altcoin Observer - page 83. (Read 387491 times)

legendary
Activity: 2534
Merit: 1129
August 19, 2014, 05:25:23 AM

That's exactly why an 80% drop now for LTC means a lot more than a 70% drop in BTC back in 2012. In 2012 when activity picked up again, it was almost entirely going back to BTC. Any increase in activity now won't be going back to LTC. There is simply no reason for that to happen. There are many more and better alternatives to LTC now.


OK, I see your point. I agree there are better alternatives, but I still feel like LTC has at least one more giant pump before (if) it dies a long slow death. There is just so much money invested in scrypt asics, and most of them haven't seen the light of day, that I think it will have another boom cycle (and an accompanying boom in the number of tx/day). But who knows...

Would those script ASICS be specific to LTC ?  .. or would LTC possibly become the 'byproduct' of a merge mine for a better alternative coin (thus depressing its price further).
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
August 19, 2014, 03:06:35 AM
This is an easy question to answer. Growth in BTC retail acceptance is a great incentive for BTC price drop. People are not buying bitcoin to spend them immediately, all those spent BTC are from longer term holders. It's obvious what retailers do with BTC they acquire: they drop them on the exchanges that same moment through BitPay or other payment processors. I believe this is one of the main reasons for current drive towards lower BTC price.

I agree but I argue this is a short term effect and since retail has been going on for a while a some of that is already played out.

I don't agree that the goal is people buying BTC in order to spend them. That would be just neutral (since the retailers would generally just sell). The goal is for more people to recognize the coins as valuable and accept them as such. This requires there be useful ways to spend them, which is why retail is contributing to the growth of bitcoin despite the inevitable short term price pressure.

But this is somewhat off topic for the Altcoin observer thread so perhaps we should conclude this discussion soon.

legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1000
August 18, 2014, 06:41:31 PM
Monero XMR seems to be one of the only alts in the green today....


0.01 plez  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1974
Merit: 1077
^ Will code for Bitcoins
August 18, 2014, 06:30:22 PM
There is definitely increased BTC adoption going on. There is real growth in retail acceptance and some other categories such as travel, and some real startups doing interesting things and building out meaningful capabilities that didn't exist before such as remittances, bitcoin debit card, new investment vehicles coming soon, etc. Whether that is a reason to buy BTC speculatively is a question only an investor can decide.

This is an easy question to answer. Growth in BTC retail acceptance is a great incentive for BTC price drop. People are not buying bitcoin to spend them immediately, all those spent BTC are from longer term holders. It's obvious what retailers do with BTC they acquire: they drop them on the exchanges that same moment through BitPay or other payment processors. I believe this is one of the main reasons for current drive towards lower BTC price.

Hoping the LTC will rebound from this enormous drop like BTC did in the past is very optimistic IMHO. It may, but it's very unlikely. BTC is not in the same league with LTC, there were reasons why it recovered which doesn't apply to LTC at all, but you can never be certain how things roll out in crypto.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1473
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
August 18, 2014, 06:22:32 PM
These litecoin prices have fallen to approximately twice the pre-bubble valuation and thus are very tempting, insofar as the analogy to the great bitcoin bubble holds . . .

Unlike BTC, there is no reason to expect increasing LTC adoption.



This was said in 2011, 2012, and 2013...

Yet things have not been further from those statements in those respective years those statements were made. Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1473
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
August 18, 2014, 06:20:20 PM
Here is the 6-hour resolution chart of the LTC/USD currency pair from the BTC-e exchange. Note the two down legs of the great capitulation of 2014. Prices fell 28% in two days from $6.865 down to $5. Then fell another 30% from $5 down to $3.5. From the November peak price at $48.48, litecoin prices have fallen 13.85x. This is a more dramatic bubble run-up and collapse than the great bitcoin bubble of June 2013.

These litecoin prices have fallen to approximately twice the pre-bubble valuation and thus are very tempting, insofar as the analogy to the great bitcoin bubble holds . . .




June 2013? I don't remember that.  Roll Eyes
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
August 18, 2014, 06:15:51 PM
I don't have time to read this thread, so I don't know if this has been pointed out already. In our upthread discussion about Cryptonite and the MBC (mini blockchain), I failed to point out that the unscalable (without centralized mining) Bitcoin blockchain (and worse for Monero) can never be pruned because it relies on GUIDs to prevent double-spend replay transactions (or am I unaware that Bitcoin's tx GUID somehow incorporates the block hash?). If anyone is aware of a solution for that please let me know. Because I think it is major vulnerability of the MBC. Has Cryptonite addressed it in some way?

Their white paper says this:

Quote
In order to make sure the same signed transaction isn't processed by the network more than once, the block header must also contain a “lockheight” field. The transaction becomes invalid once the lockheight is outside the range of blocks which nodes are required to keep (lets call this the blocks “in view”), and same txid cannot be included twice in any of the blocks which are in view. This makes it impossible to use the same txid twice. However this solution requires that the txid is not malleable.

I think block header there is a typo...should that be transaction header?

Definitely should be 'transaction header'.

Okay so Cryptonite retains GUIDs for at least the 'lockheight' (a blockchain length) allowance so the replay attack can't occur within that allowance. Off the top of my head, I assume one side-effect of this slightly kludgy design decision if your transaction isn't included in a block before the allowance, then it is invalid and you will need to resend it. However, I assume they are keeping weeks or months of transaction history “in view” so shouldn't be an issue.

Edit: Pruning Bitcoin's txids won't require that transactions include this block chain length expiration field, because address reuse can't create a duplicate txid. The txid in Bitcoin is not a nonce rather the hash of the transaction which contains the output being spent, i.e. there is no way to reload an address with a duplicate txid, because all transactions are iterative hashes of hashes of hashes (etc) of the historical tree of preceding transactions history feeding the input.

Thus it is appears I was incorrect originally and Cryptonite's 'lockheight' field is unnecessary if they've implemented txids the same as for Bitcoin. Apparently for space efficiency they may have implemented txids as nonces instead of hash of the transaction?

one feature lost is the ability to sign a transaction and hold it indefinitely before sending to the blockchain network. I can't think of any practical need for such a feature, can you? Silly me, then the balance being spent could be double-spent before you could send to blockchain, so there is no use for the lost feature.

I suppose multi-sig is not adversely affected, because for one reason they need to complete within the retained transaction history. And for another reason I suppose multiple signatures are multiple layered transactions. But I guess it can affect multi-sig in that if you want to retain the tx history indefinitely until all the dependent sigs complete, then 'lockheight' can't be known a priori. However, setting 'lockheight' to weeks or a month is probably sufficient since a block doesn't have to be pruned once its 'lockheight' expires.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
August 18, 2014, 06:01:51 PM
There is just so much money invested in scrypt asics, and most of them haven't seen the light of day

And some of them probably wont ever would be my guess.

Quote
that I think it will have another boom cycle (and an accompanying boom in the number of tx/day). But who knows...

Hey its always possible. But even scrypt doesn't just mean LTC any more. It is still a big part of the scrypt space, but much less than it used to be.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
August 18, 2014, 05:59:10 PM
Okay so Cryptonite retains GUIDs for at least the 'lockheight' (a blockchain length) allowance so the replay attack can't occur within that allowance. One side-effect of this slightly kludgy design decision if your transaction isn't included in a block before the allowance, then it is invalid and you will need to resend it. However, I assume they are keeping weeks or months of transaction history “in view” so shouldn't be an issue. Even at micro-transaction scales, this extra tx header data doesn't add more than 40 bytes per tx with sufficient collision resistance for the txid.

They are keeping two weeks currently. There was a bit of breath holding when the coin passed two weeks in age and switched to truncated blockchain mode, but everything seemed to work.

legendary
Activity: 3136
Merit: 1116
August 18, 2014, 05:58:58 PM

That's exactly why an 80% drop now for LTC means a lot more than a 70% drop in BTC back in 2012. In 2012 when activity picked up again, it was almost entirely going back to BTC. Any increase in activity now won't be going back to LTC. There is simply no reason for that to happen. There are many more and better alternatives to LTC now.


OK, I see your point. I agree there are better alternatives, but I still feel like LTC has at least one more giant pump before (if) it dies a long slow death. There is just so much money invested in scrypt asics, and most of them haven't seen the light of day, that I think it will have another boom cycle (and an accompanying boom in the number of tx/day). But who knows...
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
August 18, 2014, 05:39:18 PM

Specifically compare:

BTC transactions since January (steady if not up): https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

LTC transactions since January (dramatically down): http://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-ltc.html


I think this may be a little misleading. If you look at both coins over their entire history, you can see they have similar ups and downs in terms of number of transactions per unit time.

No, I really don't see that, especially after enabling 7-day avg on the bitcoin chart. There is no comparison actually. BTC has a steady uptrend and LTC is all boom and bust with major drops offs. BTC rarely if ever drops 50+% while LTC drops 75% repeatedly, including the current drain spiral.


I disagree. In its first two years of existence, bitcoin had two major boom/bust cycles. From July 2011 to January 2012, btc went from over 14k tx/day to about 4.8k (a 65% drop), and from 57k tx/day in July 2012 back down to 17k tx/day at the end of 2012 (a 70% drop).

I do see that the boom bust cycles in ltc tx/day are a bit more pronounced - from 13k down to 2.5k tx/day (an 80% drop) and from 19.5k down to 4k (also about 80% drop) - but I think the amount of competition has to be taken into account as well. By the time litecoin was going into the boom bust cycles it had a lot more competition than btc at its same moment in history, so I think it makes sense that the swings would be a bit more dramatic.

I guess I just don't see a major difference between a 70% drop and an 80% drop, considering the circumstances of litecoin having more alternatives for people to move to (ftc, qrk, etc.) .

That's exactly why an 80% drop now for LTC means a lot more than a 70% drop in BTC back in 2012. In 2012 when activity picked up again, it was almost entirely going back to BTC. Any increase in activity now won't be going back to LTC. There is simply no reason for that to happen. There are many more and better alternatives to LTC now.


legendary
Activity: 3136
Merit: 1116
August 18, 2014, 04:59:19 PM

Specifically compare:

BTC transactions since January (steady if not up): https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

LTC transactions since January (dramatically down): http://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-ltc.html


I think this may be a little misleading. If you look at both coins over their entire history, you can see they have similar ups and downs in terms of number of transactions per unit time.

No, I really don't see that, especially after enabling 7-day avg on the bitcoin chart. There is no comparison actually. BTC has a steady uptrend and LTC is all boom and bust with major drops offs. BTC rarely if ever drops 50+% while LTC drops 75% repeatedly, including the current drain spiral.


I disagree. In its first two years of existence, bitcoin had two major boom/bust cycles. From July 2011 to January 2012, btc went from over 14k tx/day to about 4.8k (a 65% drop), and from 57k tx/day in July 2012 back down to 17k tx/day at the end of 2012 (a 70% drop).

I do see that the boom bust cycles in ltc tx/day are a bit more pronounced - from 13k down to 2.5k tx/day (an 80% drop) and from 19.5k down to 4k (also about 80% drop) - but I think the amount of competition has to be taken into account as well. By the time litecoin was going into the boom bust cycles it had a lot more competition than btc at its same moment in history, so I think it makes sense that the swings would be a bit more dramatic.

I guess I just don't see a major difference between a 70% drop and an 80% drop, considering the circumstances of litecoin having more alternatives for people to move to (ftc, qrk, etc.) .
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
August 18, 2014, 04:30:47 PM

Specifically compare:

BTC transactions since January (steady if not up): https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

LTC transactions since January (dramatically down): http://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-ltc.html


I think this may be a little misleading. If you look at both coins over their entire history, you can see they have similar ups and downs in terms of number of transactions per unit time.

No, I really don't see that, especially after enabling 7-day avg on the bitcoin chart. There is no comparison actually. BTC has a steady uptrend and LTC is all boom and bust with major drops offs. BTC rarely if ever drops 50+% while LTC drops 75% repeatedly, including the current drain spiral.
legendary
Activity: 3136
Merit: 1116
August 18, 2014, 04:20:57 PM

Specifically compare:

BTC transactions since January (steady if not up): https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

LTC transactions since January (dramatically down): http://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-ltc.html


I think this may be a little misleading. If you look at both coins over their entire history, you can see they have similar ups and downs in terms of number of transactions per unit time.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
August 18, 2014, 04:13:14 PM
These litecoin prices have fallen to approximately twice the pre-bubble valuation and thus are very tempting, insofar as the analogy to the great bitcoin bubble holds . . .

Unlike BTC, there is no reason to expect increasing LTC adoption.

Who that isn't deluded is investing for BTC for adoption? I only see investor pumps in crypto-currency to-date.

There is definitely increased BTC adoption going on. There is real growth in retail acceptance and some other categories such as travel, and some real startups doing interesting things and building out meaningful capabilities that didn't exist before such as remittances, retail, new investment vehicles coming soon, etc. Whether that is a reason to buy BTC speculatively is a question only an investor can decide. Either way though, it is a clear difference from LTC, which has no movement on adoption at all, never really did, and it doesn't look like it ever will.

Okay but two counter thoughts:

1. Comparison of those adoptions by relative market cap.

2. Do those anecdotal "adoptions" have anything to do with the price?

Peter R showed market cap was correlated with some proxy for transactions squared.

1. I think all of those visible adoption areas are quite plausibly incremental to current market cap which at $6 billion is quite tiny relative to payment flows in just about any real business (not that this means it will necessarily happen, only plausible).

2. I think all of those visible adoption areas are quite plausibly incremental to transaction volume, so if you believe the transactions-squared price relationship is likely to persist (I'm not sure), you should expect these quite possibly increase price.

By comparison LTC has absolutely nothing going on that is going to increase adoption or transactions. In fact they are more likely to decrease.

Specifically compare:

BTC transactions since January (steady if not up): https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

LTC transactions since January (dramatically down): http://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-ltc.html


hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
August 18, 2014, 04:08:19 PM
These litecoin prices have fallen to approximately twice the pre-bubble valuation and thus are very tempting, insofar as the analogy to the great bitcoin bubble holds . . .

Unlike BTC, there is no reason to expect increasing LTC adoption.

Who that isn't deluded is investing for BTC for adoption? I only see investor pumps in crypto-currency to-date.

There is definitely increased BTC adoption going on. There is real growth in retail acceptance and some other categories such as travel, and some real startups doing interesting things and building out meaningful capabilities that didn't exist before such as remittances, retail, new investment vehicles coming soon, etc. Whether that is a reason to buy BTC speculatively is a question only an investor can decide. Either way though, it is a clear difference from LTC, which has no movement on adoption at all, never really did, and it doesn't look like it ever will.

Okay but two counter thoughts:

1. Comparison of those adoptions by relative market cap.

2. Do those anecdotal "adoptions" have anything to do with the price?

Peter R showed market cap was correlated with some proxy for transactions squared.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
August 18, 2014, 04:06:01 PM
These litecoin prices have fallen to approximately twice the pre-bubble valuation and thus are very tempting, insofar as the analogy to the great bitcoin bubble holds . . .

Unlike BTC, there is no reason to expect increasing LTC adoption.

Who that isn't deluded is investing for BTC for adoption? I only see investor pumps in crypto-currency to-date.

There is definitely increased BTC adoption going on. There is real growth in retail acceptance and some other categories such as travel, and some real startups doing interesting things and building out meaningful capabilities that didn't exist before such as remittances, bitcoin debit card, new investment vehicles coming soon, etc. Whether that is a reason to buy BTC speculatively is a question only an investor can decide. Either way though, it is a clear difference from LTC, which has no movement on adoption at all, never really did, and it doesn't look like it ever will.


hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
August 18, 2014, 04:02:32 PM
These litecoin prices have fallen to approximately twice the pre-bubble valuation and thus are very tempting, insofar as the analogy to the great bitcoin bubble holds . . .

Unlike BTC, there is no reason to expect increasing LTC adoption.

His post belonged in a speculation thread, but I still think that might be a valid point.

Who that isn't deluded is investing in BTC for adoption? I only see investor pumps in crypto-currency to-date.

Edit#2: All crypto-coins to date are centralized mining deceptions:

http://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/post/bino

Just my opinion. And the opinion of that blog post. We may be wrong.
legendary
Activity: 1232
Merit: 1001
mining is so 2012-2013
August 18, 2014, 03:33:55 PM
I would also buy Doge before Litecoin.  Both have big communities but Litecoin has lots of room to fall, whereas Doge can basically only go up from here.  But still neither of them offer up a great feature that makes me excited.  So they have a big community?  So does Bitcoin x100

Famous last words.

Hahahaha.  So true.  Glad I am not investing in any of these anyway.  Waiting for the next big thing that is for real.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
‘Try to be nice’
August 18, 2014, 03:33:16 PM
Here is the 6-hour resolution chart of the LTC/USD currency pair from the BTC-e exchange. Note the two down legs of the great capitulation of 2014. Prices fell 28% in two days from $6.865 down to $5. Then fell another 30% from $5 down to $3.5. From the November peak price at $48.48, litecoin prices have fallen 13.85x. This is a more dramatic bubble than the great bitcoin bubble of June 2013.

These litecoin prices have fallen to approximately twice the pre-bubble valuation and thus are very tempting, insofar as the analogy to the great bitcoin bubble holds . . .




Bullish ! - use leverage !

SPX2000

early retirement
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