Topic: rpietila public diary -- Episode II (Read 40823 times)

Update on the situation in Tacloban. I am in communication now with people there.

There is no power at night. Mostly still using generators, so expensive to just charge the battery on the cell phone. Fuel is 7 - 10 times higher in price than else where in the country. Food is still scarce and expensive. Internet access is so slow to be basically unusable.

The political fighting between the Aquino and Marcos clans continues (Samar and Leyte are historically Imelda's territory). This is apparently the reason there wasn't much development on those two islands as compared to Cebu. Ditto Zamboanga and Cotabato, but different political clans and also the Muslim issue.

In addition to the Bohol earthquake and the Pablo devastation of eastern Mindanao at end of 2012, this month we had a low pressure area and tropical depression over eastern Mindanao for 2 weeks of nearly non-stop rain. Thus more devastation due to flooding and mudslides. People were unable work, more crops destroyed.

Many people are dying from these conditions which are not reported in the 6000+ figure of deaths from Yolanda which itself continues to grow by 3 bloated bodies found per day in Tacloban alone. One lady text me today to say her father died in Samar last night. They can't obtain their usual diet of vegetables and fish. The fuel is too expensive and the boats are destroyed.

This thread made my day!

I really respect what you guys are doing. Please keep up the great work:)

More typhoon donations photos from Leyte





I don't know why some of the photos upthread are not displaying. You can quote the messages and get the links and load them into your browser to see them.

Answer: p2p

May I draw to the attention of the astute minds who frequent this topic to a challenge I am posting on reddit: that of making Bitcoins a feasible solution to remittances on the Philippines?

Here is relief distributed to those in Naval, Biliran (2 hours drive over bridge from the Tacloban news epicenter) for those in the pictures of destruction I had shared upthread. The lady and her mother are doing this distribution for me, as shown in the photos where her Mom is handing out the rice. Also see we have another new roof being installed. I think you can see some of the culture of close community "togetherness" in these photos.

This does not include the two completely destroyed houses in Biliran hopefully being partially rebuilt, which were different recipients.

I had stalled further distribution of BTC because I needed to see results that match the 11-12 BTC already distributed. I am starting to see results, but insufficient thus far on the aggregate. Nevertheless some laudable results thus far.

Been some splendid reading, Eagerly awaiting episode III.

Powerful testament to Bitcoin and its supporters.

Our most substantial photo update on the typhoon donations.

The is the Masbate beach house made of concrete but entirely lost the roof. Now thanks to the donations, they have shiny brand new roof and can move back into the house. Congrats to donators we have clear win here!

I am distributing directly to needy based on my individual evaluations of need, some donations from Risto and those Risto received from others.

Although it appears I was unable to distribute all of the donations and will be returning 2/3 of them.

I've been to Bohol, stayed in Alona Beach. Beautiful island, laid-back, fun and great diving!
If I wasn't broke (went a little to crazy this yr for christmas) I'd like to donate as well.

Are you donating directly or though an organization? If I was to donate it would have to be direct, I don't trust organizations, they skim and rob the funds.

Another photo update on the typhoon donations.

This was the family from northern bohol whose home collapsed during the recent Bohol earthquake, then was battered by the typhoon also.

The $500 donated funds are rebuilding their home as shown.

You can see the damaged wall and the mangled steel rebar.

Thanks, rpietila - wise words, indeed!

And the journey continues...Thank you, Risto. Well done.

You are a genius, a prophet, argumentative, cocky and sometimes just darn wacky

but never boring.

come back soon

Guys + girls,

The Episode II of my diary is nearing its end. I started it in 3.11.2013, in anticipation of a rally in bitcoin. About the same time I had a very intense Facebook campaign. The price started moving immediately, and so quickly that I issued my initial bearish call in 19.-20.11. That proved to be premature - the price still went up and crossed the important $1 threshold in the following days. It soon became apparent that it was overextended from the trendline however, and therefore exceedingly difficult to keep its uptrend. From the dead cat bounce (10.12.) following the double top (30.11.&4.12.), I have been selling more coins. I have devoted my last 2 weeks to researching about the price, whether I want to enter into such a trade. So far it is working well, selling more into rallies and buying some back at dips. I expect that the downtrend takes us to somewhere between $0.3 and $0.5 in the following months.

When the price was still rising, I had the mood and time to conduct Bitcoin Economics research. There is a list of the threads in the OP. I feel that in the short time quite many important topics have been presented and discussed. These threads will not become obsolete because of short-term events or swings in price.

There are some important matters that I must move on to. Perhaps some still remember the Supernode Network (still no better name ), which I promised will be started at $1.4/mBTC. As I now see it, reaching that figure is not happening any time soon, so I will have the opportunity to take the time off, and let the bubble-bust cycle run its natural course. If Wall Observer is any guide, we are now strongly in the "denial" phase (consult the well-known chart for details).

If you are heavy in bitcoin, and especially if this is your first bubble, I would ask you to consider if you still feel good if the price goes to $0.3 or $0.4. Otherwise it might be a time to sell a fraction of the holdings now at the record prices.

For those new in bitcoin, this is a very good time to enter with experimental/speculative funds, and buy more when the price goes down.

I do not suggest daytrading bitcoin to anyone: like all speculative markets, it is heavily manipulated, you pay fees, waste valuable time playing a zero-sum game and generally end up on the losing side of the trade. Optimally you only accumulate bitcoin until you have enough (never sell), and once you have enough, you gradually start to sell/buy things with it (and never buy back coins). This minimizes the problems outlined above.

Thank you for all the wonderful community and contributors!

He laid 1:1.

Photo update. The before and after Yolanda pics of the house in Bogo (northern Cebu). The amount I gave this family (donated by Risto and those who donated to Risto) is not sufficient to rebuild the house. Because at the time of sending I didn't have confidence of how damaged the house was and it is my responsibility to distribute the funds according to need. I had described upthread as using the window as the door. They bought some food (not shown) and some medicines and mosquito repellent (shown). They are thinking of using the remaining $220 to build a small shack to live in. The girl shown has 1 and 3 year old boys, mother died this year, and father has gone far away since Yolanda to seek construction work.

She wrote:

$0.50 / mBTC

OK guys, back to the diarish writing:

This week I have suffered from a flu, not so good/active time. I spent it running calculations and simulations on USD/BTC rate and they confirmed my view that bitcoin is overbought compared to its trend, and that the correct play in this situation is to keep much less than 100% of your portfolio in bitcoins. I have acted accordingly, and that has taken some of my energy also. (Details on the research hopefully later.)

I got tired of Wall Observer. Tried to bet with Goat about bitcoin going to $0.45, but he gave such bad odds that I fare much better by selling my bitcoins and buying back at $0.45. I had planned this to be my final act there, but now promised to only come back when bitcoin price hits $0.50, with no bet.

I was very satisfied with myself propping up the price for the duration of my sale yesterday. Nimble broker action netted at least $3k better price.