Today I've been pruning the threads (see
OP for all the nice threads where specific matters are discussed) and adding more content.
A few weeks ago we had a discussion about what to do as the bitcoin holdings seem over-concentrated and most of the world don't have much.
I think bitcoin holdings are not that concentrated after all, and the current mechanisms for distribution are effective enough. Partly I realized this as I have been called über-bull and whatnot, but I still decided to throw a dice whether I get a retirement at an expense of thousands of bitcoins, or get to buy them back cheaper and merely get a car and a house as profits. The markets have decided that I need a retirement, so be it.
But the fact is that thousands of bitcoins are now in somebody else's hands.
To be able to enjoy your retirement, I suggest you make a very solid plan on
when and how much to cash out. If possible, you should structure the sales to very small increments, to avoid exchange risk. Only sell when the price is rising, and do sell. If you hold through the peak, it just makes you anxious to sell afterwards when it's clear that the price is not rising back in a few weeks.
That I am "suddenly" advocating selling is based on the math that during every double in price, on average 17% of the previous holders' bitcoins are sold. So why not sell according to a reasonable model that mathematically rewards you + takes away the anxiety?
We will soon have updated wealth distribution in that thread. Probably we will need to increase the Bitcoin usership significantly. The previous estimate is only 350,000. Now the price has risen 5x, which - if directly correlated - would put the usership at 1.75M.
Also I've been trying to move the bitcoins back from China. Just a few days ago I could buy there at cost and sell in Bitstamp. Now the premium is already about 13%, which makes it more interesting to sell them back, and wait for the price to equalize.
I am thinking that currently there is quite much momentum in bitcoin's price, so at the moment I would not sell speculatively. Just sell according to the plan when the price goes up. There will be peaks and crashes on the way, and considering how pathetic the exchanges are, they will continue to be unusable at the time of action. My original speculation of going to $2000+ and then crash to $500 looks quite viable now. But if
I lose money on speculation, who are
you to believe you win?
Hopefully even next year we would no more have the need to transfer to fiat at all. It is just a pain, a sad reminder of the past.