Topic: rpietila public diary -- Episode II - page 3. (Read 40823 times)

Here are example photos I am receiving from Naval and these are some of the families we are helping. Thank you to those who donated.

Note allocating keeping in mind how self-sufficient filipinos are and not spoiling what they can do on their own. This requires considerable analysis and fact checking. Time consuming.

It could be that the 3% are able to increase their capital, but how come does that mean that all the others would end up being slaves?

If I traded with 20,000mBTC, the % increase would be much bigger because all trades would be 100% of position. So the 97% are in better relative position to increase their wealth, but the problem is that they don't know how to do it and lose money. Like I said, I believe 99% fare better using the SSS strategy with "accumulation" phase, "purchasing power and share of portfolio gaining" phase and "divestation/diversification" phase.

I have tried to provide insights to professional trading to everyone who's willing to listen. WHILE EXPRESSLY SAYING THAT IS NOT FOR YOU IN MOST CASES. What more can I do?

Rampion, you are missing the point that his trades don't apply to your concept of what a winning trade means. He has a holistic trading strategy across multiple asset classes, exchanges, metrics, and models.

Thus your comments are pure noise and slanderous, unless you are simply making the point that his trading strategy doesn't apply to the simple trader who is only in or out of BTC-- which would be a correct observation.

I don't think you did this intentionally. You apparently just didn't realize.

Edit: picking a few trades and trying to analyze if his strategy is succeeding is analogous to tracking a few ants and trying to declare you know what the colony is doing.

1. is not a failure mode, it is a feature I don't think that I can outpace bitcoin's appreciation with my fiat part, but the fiat part gives diversification against failure of bitcoin, and trading earns higher APR than a current account still.

2. It is true I never use a stop loss, because I never initiate trades that would need to be "stopped". If the short-term position goes against me, I may close it if I am trading. When I am sleeping, I will just let it run, because it will balance out with another position (a leg of arbitrage for instance) later, or with the overall 80/20 allocation if nothing else. At times I augment all trades that I have "in mind" to a complete position sheet and cancel the contradicting ones.

I perhaps should fix that I will also use a SSS-style permanent rake, which is taken out of exchanges and converted to other asset classes and never returned to crypto. (In practice this is the case already, but it's not part of the model yet.)

(Edited for 2.)

Risto, I don't see why you have to delete the honest and completely on topic critics to your price predictions, to then quote selectively only a small part of them.

I appreciate a lot many of your posts - and when I agree with you, I agree publicly. On the other side, I very much doubt of your "I'm making a lot of money by trading" brags because they are not supported by your posts, on the contrary they are invalidated by your public calls. I try to keep my critics constructive, and I try to point out the contradictions in your discourse to help both you to adjust it and the newcomers to don't get impressed at first sight and look better. I believe this adds value to the board and that it's completely on topic in a thread that is precisely about "Risto Pietila" and his performance.

Finally, it's kinda discouraging to have longish posts like the two I just wrote in this thread ruthlessly deleted. Please remember that precisely that kind of attitude made people to create "alt" threads about you which were mostly pure mockery.

Let's try to keep it civil and not repeat past mistakes.

I aim to net at least 3% (and seldom get more than 12%) per successful trade. Let's say the average realized gain is 5%. If I manage to employ 200,000mBTC per trade, the gain is 10,000mBTC. It takes a few hours of active work. I am not especially good at it, but I know math, I have the coins and I have the time and freedom.

Can you now see why I did a same-day attack to China in Nov 19th, after seeing that 1. the coins were selling for 50% higher there, 2. the price had just overshot and was 3. crashing everywhere, and 4. I was too heavy on coins due to not selling during the whole runup? Properly executed, this was a literally million dollar profit deal opportunity, 100 times bigger than the staple.

If only I had managed to get the account right with the first try, I would have gotten an average of 0.819 exit point compared to 0.672 a day later.

I am so big and intelligent that I don't need to brag. The information here is disclosed so that prospective traders can take heed. I have received several exhortations and even warnings via PM to not tell so openly about the ways to make money, as opposed to be fleeced.

I think most of us (99%) should not have any intention to make money with bitcoin, just to keep the bitcoins that they have and add to the position.

I believe you Rpietila.  I also am humbly aware that there are some people on this board, such as both you and Rampion, that are smarter than I am and better at predicting the movement of the market and making wise decisions based on these things.  I, realizing that I suck at that, just need to buy and hold.  It is the best strategy for "Dummies."     So far it has worked well.  Granted there is part of me that wishes I could be good at it and take advantage of the ups and downs to increase the amount of coins we have, but not everyone is capable of doing that effectively.  In fact, most can't do it or try and fail!  That is probably why it is hard for some to believe you are so successful at it!

BitChicksHusband is really excited about your plan for cashing out too and has it all charted out and seems like a really great way to take advantage of our position in the future.  It just requires patience at this point, especially as "holders."

Got your link through from the Wall, and wanted to thank you for that; but, I have been reading your stuff for months-- it's quite fascinating to take a broader look at this marvel. Trading it, on the other hand, is like going to war, and I've learned a lot from this first mega wave (parabolic uptick...).

I'm not sure exactly where I think resistance levels are anymore, so glad to see some cogitation on it. Looking forward to cheap coins below the 'trend' line (the big one). 

Looking forward to a tour of your castle, if you choose to go in that direction-- personally, I just want land and a garden big enough to provide. 

You will have to listen, and understand. You know all of this from beforehand but perhaps the understanding part requires some thought.

A. Total position is 10M USD (10k BTC), and its standard allocation is 80% bitcoins, 20% other. In practice about half of "other" is in different exchanges as fiat position.

B. "Making money" is defined that the amount of either of both of the components of Total position increases. Note: amount, not "value".

C. Holding does not "make money" because of the definition above. If USDBTC rises, there is no gain, neither is there a loss if it goes down, provided that the total position is allocated 80/20.

D. Of the possible trading strategies, they make money as follows:

- Allocation. The percentage of "other" in portfolio can be temporarily set to 10-30% to take advantage of the mispricing of the general market. Easiest way to know if you have gained is after resetting the percentages. These trades last days or weeks for me. More BTC -> win.

- Arbitrage. Explained in above posts. After you have made the total of 4 trades with the coins and they are sitting in their original order, you can count the gains. I normally price the gains in USD (ie. trade with fixed amount of BTC).

- Daytrading. Taking positions in smaller intraday moves, with the intention of closing the trade in a few minutes/hours. I normally price the gains in USD.


Now, everything else in your talking just reveals that you don't think at all like me. If the wallobserver frequents actually believe that guessing the future price, and taking on/off action with your whole position of BTC2 is a road to riches, I don't know if they can be helped.

Out of context nothing is understandable, and any reasonably advanced trading plan is indistinguishable from magic. Thank you, good bye

I have corrected myself on that. Thanks. And I have concluded that the China news is very bullish. See the linked post.

Edit: I created a poll to ask if my interpretation of the recent China news is correct.

Anonymint, I am not qualified to give trading opinion. I will leave it to more capable members of the forum. However, the sell off is not due to the Greenspan comments, but due to the recent regulations in China.
http://fr.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1s5hzl/my_human_translation_of_the_china_regulation/
http://fr.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1s8y6b/the_circlejerking_here_is_out_of_hand_my_thoughts/
(So, you might want to reword your poll or create new one).

Some people are in actual dire straits, lost their houses, etc. Meanwhile we had a nice flash-goxx-crash where pros including me made a nice chunk of money. It is quite ironic, to think of it. I will therefore not go into details, just express my satisfaction of the result of trading.

AnonyMint has accepted the responsibility of compiling the lists of needy people and sending the BTC to them. I will safekeep some of the donations before the recipient is assigned. We have enough money at present and do not want people to give us more, it goes against the principle of P2P helping.

Ah I finally made contact with someone on eastern side of Samar that the typhoon hit first. I mean it was really bad over there, I saw photos of entire towns gone and even the concrete coastal road broken to pieces.

The family was not contactable by cell phone, yet I received a reply in facebook as follows.


I'm sharing some, so others can see this is sincere. Also just in case I made any mistake upthread about the real state-of-affairs on the ground, to show it is not intentional. I am collecting information.

---

Follow up from Catbalogan, Samar, so not on the east side instead 50 km north of Taclocan. I was mistaken. So don't expect the damage to be as bad as I described above. Also appears their house is concrete so it mostly survived other than the roof.




And from Naval, Biliran a different contact and the 3rd confirmation of the lack of aid reaching there:

---

From Bogo, Cebu:

I have confirmed the international aid is reaching the Carigara area in between Tacloban and Ormoc. That is the main national highway running down the west side of Samar and Leyte. Concrete road I think originally built by Imelda Marcos. One family declined assistance, as they have a business and savings and have already begun rebuilding. I asked about needy in that area, and they said the people there were able to handle their own in combination with the international aid. They told me Tacloban was becoming a ghost town, not sure if that is reliable as if they've been to Tacloban or just what they hear or an exaggeration.

So it appears law & order exists in some areas. The reports I get show the problem is more on building housing. Some people have the funds to do so, and others don't. This lack of housing ranges as far away as those still suffering from the Bohol earthquake and even in Agusan and Mati Oriental, Mindanao from that freak strong typhoon Pablo (aka Bopha) Dec. 2012 since that southernly area of Mindanao hadn't been hit by a strong typhoon in decades (normally typhoons don't come that far south). The Visayas and Mindanao have been pounded with Sendong (which overflowed the Cagayan river washing away communities along to river in the middle of the night), then Pablo, then the Bohol earthquake that created new cliffs even, and then perhaps the strongest typhoon ever to make landfall Yolanda.

I am wondering why aid wouldn't reach Naval, Biliran since as far as I know, there is a bridge going there from mainland where Tacloban is.

Some (many perhaps) of the people in Biliran are too poor to rebuild their houses. I have two confirmations of this so far.

Edit: My contact clarified that there is still a crisis in food in Naval notwithstanding any aid reaching there.

I also have a very close friend in Manilla who would happily help to assist with disbursing some aid in the area. If anybody would like feel free to PM me and I will connect you directly with him.

We were students together in Japan and he is a very reliable person. I will personally reimburse any BTC sent to him that aren't proven to be used for good.

Great work rpietila

These are not the photos I am promising which will still be forthcoming.

I'll let Risto decide if he announces anything on what has transpired since last posts on the charity. Just want to add that north Cebu was hit hard too and I am finding needy there.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/352275-medellin-cebu-province-no-food-or-water-mayor-appeals-for-help-after-typhoon-haiyan/?photo=2





Also finding more needy on Leyte and Samar, where you can see even the Nipa that they normally build grass roofs with is mostly blown away from the surrounding vegetation. The mountains you see in the distance would normally not be denuded in the tropics, they should be jungle.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/355442-tolosa-leyte-video-and-photos-show-heavy-damage-from-haiyan/?photo=1

It is complex to try to understand what Risto and I are going through right now. We haven't spoken on the phone lately (I assume not because we don't want to, just both too busy, and it isn't the right time because the disagreement can't be resolved by talking only by time and outcome). I seemed to have gotten disappointed that he would adopt what I feel is a very big danger to humanity. And he seems to think it is a big solution. Although I am not 100% sure what he thinks. I suspect he and I both hold some of our private cards close to our chest (so no one can see). This will sort itself out in time. He may be thinking that I disavow capitalism to some extent. I think it is too complex to explain why that is not the case. The most efficient (it seems) is to let it all become clear with the outcome.

Did the price crash? Shows how overloaded I am. Hopefully recover quickly.

I elaborated about the Christian aspect.

Thanks for your comprehensive reply AnonyMint,

I will go forward with this though I may postpone to see if the present crash recovers (or to see where it settles) first.  Unfortunately my timing was shit because I finally made my 2btc bitme donation this morning less than half an hour before the price began to crash so depending on how automated and quick their conversion is I suspect it will be far less effective donation than it would have been yesterday!