Still 9,154.99 BTC shorted @ bitfinex, these could push the price up nicely in a few days if price keeps going up.
But but longs are already back to $15 million now..
Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 233. (Read 907227 times)
But but longs are already back to $15 million now..
Still 9,154.99 BTC shorted @ bitfinex, these could push the price up nicely in a few days if price keeps going up.
Excuse my ignorance. What does "Still 9,154.99 BTC shorted" means?
Still 9,154.99 BTC shorted @ bitfinex, these could push the price up nicely in a few days if price keeps going up.
How do you see bitcoin's price behaving when the russian war drums will start getting louder ?
And another victim of western Propaganda...i can't hear any war drum from russia, you?
I hear and see only war drums from US side, followed by vassal in europe.
this is a convincing inverse correlation between the smp500 and bitcoin/usd. it is out of phase, but similarities to note, they are both bouncing from recent price extremes, and they are in the same time scale (2h chart)
that they are out of phase could be explained by transfer delays. ugh those banks...
It is a hopeful observation at best, but worth attention I think.
How do you see bitcoin's price behaving when the russian war drums will start getting louder ?
As I recall btc went up nearly $100 The day The Russians took Crimea so that is a good indication. Acting like gold in war times seems probable.
Ok this explains the strong rally. Well, the situation in Ukraine can only get worse I guess. Bottom was rightly called.
How do you see bitcoin's price behaving when the russian war drums will start getting louder ?
As I recall btc went up nearly $100 The day The Russians took Crimea so that is a good indication. Acting like gold in war times seems probable.
How do you see bitcoin's price behaving when the russian war drums will start getting louder ?
Hammer-timer, duh-nuhnuhnuh
The bitcoin price weekly candlestick chart is now showing a nice hammer, which often occurs at a bottom. Not a certainty of course, but comforting for those expecting a trend reversal from the bubble collapse. The bubble collapse low last July 2013 at $61 was characterized by a hammer.
10,839.95 BTC of BFX shorts forgot to buy the dip to $400? 
Perhaps we are going lower. But what if their wish is not granted.. 
WRONG.
tl;dr: Clock really isn't ticking for the bears, specially if the price does not move against them.
a) The interest rate on BTC is very low and can be settled in USD (in which case USD is taken from your account and used to buy BTC which goes to pay the interest). Secret BFX statistics page https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats indicates the interest rate for BTC is only 0.0507% (or 18.5% per year) on average.
b) The margin requirement for 2.5:1 leverage is only 13%.
This means that shorts can hodl those short positions quite a while depending on how much of their leverage they actually used. If you have a 2.5:1 limit and do a 1:1 position you can run up pretty big losses before you are forced to finally deal with that horrible telephone call from this pesky guy called Mr Margin.
Sensible people will naturally have set stops that trigger at certain price levels but it's Bitcoin so those are probably a minority.
There's still 7551 BTC to be borrowed at BFX so it's not like shorts are going to run out of coins to sell either.
I'm not saying bears will be right, I'm just saying that your belief that "3-4 days is enough to push them out" is just ludicrous. They can, and some do, wait months if need be.
You missed my point, I said the bears will have no reason to hold short if the exchanges are not closing down. It's no good holding short bitcoin for no good reason. positions will be closed to manage risk. you may hold on to your short at your own peril.....
critical factor being the deadline
10,839.95 BTC of BFX shorts forgot to buy the dip to $400?
Perhaps we are going lower. But what if their wish is not granted..
Not until the squeeze.
every day that goes by where an exchange does not close deposits or receive warning after the deadline reduces the bears cause to be bears. I'd say no more than 3-4 days is enough to push them out. today is the first day.
And then if the exchanges close or partially close, the shorts realize gains and close their positions. Or as time goes by without closure the shorts get sqeezed and exit that way... either way we are in for a short term bump over the next week or two perhaps?
10,839.95 BTC of BFX shorts forgot to buy the dip to $400?
Perhaps we are going lower. But what if their wish is not granted..
Not until the squeeze.
every day that goes by where an exchange does not close deposits or receive warning after the deadline reduces the bears cause to be bears. I'd say no more than 3-4 days is enough to push them out. today is the first day.
10,839.95 BTC of BFX shorts forgot to buy the dip to $400?
Perhaps we are going lower. But what if their wish is not granted..
Not until the squeeze.
10,839.95 BTC of BFX shorts forgot to buy the dip to $400?
Perhaps we are going lower. But what if their wish is not granted..
10,839.95 BTC of BFX shorts forgot to buy the dip to $400?
Perhaps we are going lower. But what if their wish is not granted..
if r.p. is an überbull what do we call a.m.?
If anybody says you must be smoking crack, tell them it's trans-Δ9 taurine.
If anybody says you must be smoking crack, tell them it's trans-Δ9 taurine.
Edit: My arguments against rpietila's model should not be construed as making a case for the bears at this time in the market. This is a bull arguing that another bull is not bullish enough.
Bull-ier than thou
As you can see in 2010-2011 the then most accurate trendline (red line) seems quite robust but then, over a year, shifts to another exponent, the current one, which has been valid for a further year and a half starting in mid-2012.
Ln base (instead of log) makes it difficult to read. But the more dangerous design decision is to start the graph from Mt.Gox inception, which is really a totally arbitrary choice of a startdate. There has been Bitcoin trading before Mt.Gox, the fact that finding the data is hard does not give us the right to ignore it! I have estimated it to be a flat $0.005/1BTC based on multiple isolated trades, and the ballpark is certainly correct because there has not been any trades below $0.001 or above $0.010 before the opening of Gox, which instantly lifted the price to a new level of about $0.05-$0.08. (Again, many have criticized this, but never given any recommendation about what might be better, NOR helped me to find more data on the trading in 2009-10.)
What kind of trading signals has that one given? Like I told in its thread, mine has excelled in buyback zones - the previous 2 signals at $2.28 in October-2011 and $71 last summer were spot on, and this time the signal came at $460 some days ago.
There is data for early 2010 from New Liberty Standard and Bitcoin Market starting in January 2010. http://newlibertystandard.wikifoundry.com/page/Exchange+Rate. There is also a reference from theymos indicating he felt New Liberty Standard was over charging, and that New Liberty Standard was the most visible exchanger at the time. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1143955. I have pointed out this data before. This data is based on 1 gram XAU via Pecunix. One can easily convert this to USD using the gold price at the time. There is little doubt in my mind that this model breaks down in 2009. I believe that an exponential model based on the market capitalization rather than price and the inclusion of the New Liberty Standard and Bitcoin Market data will address these shortcomings. The net effect of these shortcomings is to give premature sell signals. A very good example is that sell signal given at the April 2011 low in the 0.6 USD range. If one takes a close look at the graph this sell signal is comparable in strength to the sell signal given for the April 2013 high. http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl.
My conclusion is that one must treat a bitcoin sell signal given by this model with extreme caution.
Edit: My arguments against rpietila's model should not be construed as making a case for the bears at this time in the market. This is a bull arguing that another bull is not bullish enough.
Considered apart from training, feed forward networks are just iterated weighted sums of logistic regressions. Recurrent networks are more...complicated.
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