rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 236.

dreamspark

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Quote from: rpietila on April 11, 2014, 08:35:09 AM

Quick TA update:
- 6H candle color/volume: BREAKING - huge green candle beats the previous reds (highest 6h volume in 30 days), conclusion: this is a clear sign of a reversal
- Bid/ask strengh at market: slippage to sell 5k: $57, slippage to buy: $63, conclusion: volatility continues
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.367 log units. The trendline is at $993 and rising $7 per day, conclusion: rock bottom
- Sentiment: getting better, which in this case is a positive thing
- Prognosis: anything can really happen, (see my musings in other posts). I did buy, despite being heavy in BTC already.

While I am generally positive how do you perceive the next 4-7 days where we will no doubt be subject to more news from China and in all likely hood have a mass migration of BTC from China. Its silly to say that the news is priced in or that yesterday was the worst of it as we can learn from the Gox situation that speculators will speculate until they cant speculate any more...?

BitChick

legendary

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Quote from: rpietila on April 11, 2014, 09:40:17 AM

Quote from: SlipperySlope on April 11, 2014, 08:29:15 AM

Your insights and open discussion of your whale sized trading are of course commendable. No other whale is so transparent. I am glad that this forum permitted you to find sellers at $400 off exchange.

I hope you gain as much from this forum as we others gain knowledge from you.

I don't know what I gain and how, but the truth is that being a public person is working very well for me, at least I think the benefits outweigh the negatives

Yes. Thanks for your transparency. Although I am operating on a very small scale compared to you, I can still learn from your strategies. Yesterday BitchicksHusband and I were able to pick up a few more coins at great prices. In the past I did not take advantage of these really low days because of fear more than anything. But it has to be a logical decision not based on emotions. So thanks for showing how the "experts" get it done. Wink

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: SlipperySlope on April 11, 2014, 08:29:15 AM

Your insights and open discussion of your whale sized trading are of course commendable. No other whale is so transparent. I am glad that this forum permitted you to find sellers at $400 off exchange.

I hope you gain as much from this forum as we others gain knowledge from you.

I don't know what I gain and how, but the truth is that being a public person is working very well for me, at least I think the benefits outweigh the negatives

jmw74

full member

Activity: 236

Merit: 100

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 11, 2014, 07:19:17 AM

Let's just say that I saw more long-term potential, when I was only familiar with the hype surrounding bitcoin. When I studied the technical aspects in-depth and thought on how will it fit into the picture of modern finance and trade, then I didn't see so much long term potential. The idea has a lot of potential, but bitcoin itself doesn't have potential to be a quality currency. The maximum potential is to enter the cash transfer service, but this will only happen if major developments will be made in the bitcoin market system. The current level of security, that the market system can offer, isn't just enough to gain the trust that is needed.

I think this is a misunderstanding, you can't consider bitcoin's payment system and store of value separately. This is what all the pundits have been doing, attack one while ignoring the effects of the other. They may know a lot about the existing financial system and economy but that doesn't automatically grant them understanding of bitcoin.

Bitcoin's strength is its trustless nature. You do not need to trust a third party nor ask its permission. Its potential is NOT in transferring other currencies where you have to trust a third party anyway (usually several of them).

No, that is not bitcoin's fate. It will ultimately remove nearly *all* third parties. There will be you, the party you want to do business with, and software. There will probably be mediators of some kind to resolve disputes, but even those will be minimized. Of course, no for-profit company is going to build this software and put itself out of business. It has to be built by the community, generally by people who aren't being directly paid for it. That will take time.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quick TA update:
- 6H candle color/volume: BREAKING - huge green candle beats the previous reds (highest 6h volume in 30 days), conclusion: this is a clear sign of a reversal
- Bid/ask strengh at market: slippage to sell 5k: $57, slippage to buy: $63, conclusion: volatility continues
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.367 log units. The trendline is at $993 and rising $7 per day, conclusion: rock bottom
- Sentiment: getting better, which in this case is a positive thing
- Prognosis: anything can really happen, (see my musings in other posts). I did buy, despite being heavy in BTC already.

SlipperySlope

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 501

Stephen Reed

Quote from: rpietila on April 11, 2014, 08:12:06 AM

I am proud to be a bagholder ever since $3...

Not that I felt any obligation to disclose, but I am happy to say that I finally managed to source BTC200 @400 off-exchange!

UP, UP...

At the moment you have $23 per bitcoin unrealized gains.

Your insights and open discussion of your whale sized trading are of course commendable. No other whale is so transparent. I am glad that this forum permitted you to find sellers at $400 off exchange.

I hope you gain as much from this forum as we others gain knowledge from you.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

I am proud to be a bagholder ever since $3...

Not that I felt any obligation to disclose, but I am happy to say that I finally managed to source BTC200 @400 off-exchange!

UP, UP...

Roccker

full member

Activity: 266

Merit: 111

The number of bitcoin adresses (7 day average) is now again first time bigger than in 15th of march, is it
(still lower than in 2nd december)

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=1&address=

the longer picture:
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7×pan=2year&scale=0&address=

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 11, 2014, 07:19:17 AM

Let's just say that I saw more long-term potential, when I was only familiar with the hype surrounding bitcoin. When I studied the technical aspects in-depth and thought on how will it fit into the picture of modern finance and trade, then I didn't see so much long term potential. The idea has a lot of potential, but bitcoin itself doesn't have potential to be a quality currency. The maximum potential is to enter the cash transfer service, but this will only happen if major developments will be made in the bitcoin market system. The current level of security, that the market system can offer, isn't just enough to gain the trust that is needed.

It's the most secure system on the planet and has been for some time ...

Mervyn_Pumpkinhead

legendary

Activity: 876

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Quote from: doctor877 on April 11, 2014, 07:11:38 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 11, 2014, 07:09:06 AM

Quote from: doctor877 on April 11, 2014, 06:59:57 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 11, 2014, 06:55:12 AM

You guys still don't get it that real bottoms aren't temporal, but they last for weeks or more.
These "quick recoveries" are made by players with twitchy fingers and the same twitchy fingers come to play when the price doesn't seem to rise any more.

Don't take your advice from tools like rpietila, who is a bagholder at 460$, who was certain that the price won't drop below 380 just yesterday and who generally just can't understand any general concept of an efficient market.

As far as I have noticed, the capitulations consists of a bottom level (in this case the 400-450) and then maybe few flash crashes to lower levels (340).

And I think it is pretty absurd to think that anyone who bought @ 460$ is a bagholder when the price is at 40$ lower.

I see it as an far fetched presumption, because the price was at 450 for about 4 days till this drop occurred. In all honesty, I have no idea on what will be the proper bottom, I don't think that anyone can currently know this. But I know that it will be more clear when this period of extreme volatility will be over, that is caused by the process of money moving from China to the western exhanges. Until then, it's a blind gamble. You can also win by blindly gambling and some people like to play this way, I just don't.

If you understand bitcoins abitility and its potential in long term, IMO it's riskier to be shorting now than just hodling.

Let's just say that I saw more long-term potential, when I was only familiar with the hype surrounding bitcoin. When I studied the technical aspects in-depth and thought on how will it fit into the picture of modern finance and trade, then I didn't see so much long term potential. The idea has a lot of potential, but bitcoin itself doesn't have potential to be a quality currency. The maximum potential is to enter the cash transfer service, but this will only happen if major developments will be made in the bitcoin market system. The current level of security, that the market system can offer, isn't just enough to gain the trust that is needed.

doctor877

full member

Activity: 896

Merit: 115

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 11, 2014, 07:09:06 AM

Quote from: doctor877 on April 11, 2014, 06:59:57 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 11, 2014, 06:55:12 AM

You guys still don't get it that real bottoms aren't temporal, but they last for weeks or more.
These "quick recoveries" are made by players with twitchy fingers and the same twitchy fingers come to play when the price doesn't seem to rise any more.

Don't take your advice from tools like rpietila, who is a bagholder at 460$, who was certain that the price won't drop below 380 just yesterday and who generally just can't understand any general concept of an efficient market.

As far as I have noticed, the capitulations consists of a bottom level (in this case the 400-450) and then maybe few flash crashes to lower levels (340).

And I think it is pretty absurd to think that anyone who bought @ 460$ is a bagholder when the price is at 40$ lower.

I see it as an far fetched presumption, because the price was at 450 for about 4 days till this drop occurred. In all honesty, I have no idea on what will be the proper bottom, I don't think that anyone can currently know this. But I know that it will be more clear when this period of extreme volatility will be over, that is caused by the process of money moving from China to the western exhanges. Until then, it's a blind gamble. You can also win by blindly gambling and some people like to play this way, I just don't.

If you understand bitcoins abitility and its potential in long term, IMO it's riskier to be shorting now than just hodling.

Mervyn_Pumpkinhead

legendary

Activity: 876

Merit: 1000

Quote from: doctor877 on April 11, 2014, 06:59:57 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 11, 2014, 06:55:12 AM

You guys still don't get it that real bottoms aren't temporal, but they last for weeks or more.
These "quick recoveries" are made by players with twitchy fingers and the same twitchy fingers come to play when the price doesn't seem to rise any more.

Don't take your advice from tools like rpietila, who is a bagholder at 460$, who was certain that the price won't drop below 380 just yesterday and who generally just can't understand any general concept of an efficient market.

As far as I have noticed, the capitulations consists of a bottom level (in this case the 400-450) and then maybe few flash crashes to lower levels (340).

And I think it is pretty absurd to think that anyone who bought @ 460$ is a bagholder when the price is at 40$ lower.

I see it as an far fetched presumption, because the price was at 450 for about 4 days till this drop occurred. In all honesty, I have no idea on what will be the proper bottom, I don't think that anyone can currently know this. But I know that it will be more clear when this period of extreme volatility will be over, that is caused by the process of money moving from China to the western exhanges. Until then, it's a blind gamble. You can also win by blindly gambling and some people like to play this way, I just don't.

podyx

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Merit: 1035

doctor877

full member

Activity: 896

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Quote from: _ajv_ on April 11, 2014, 06:24:54 AM

Quote from: doctor877 on April 11, 2014, 06:14:35 AM

This is looking too obvious inverse head and shoulders, could it be?

Seems so.

If we break 420 today, it's quite probable that the bear trend is over and the very bottom was @ 339,79. Just slightly lower than my abp!

However, if 420 is not broken today, the bear trend may continue for quite some time, as there seems not to be shortage of sellers. Gosh I wish I had more spare fiat to buy moar.

Basis for my TA:

Looks like 420 was breached @ bitstamp.

doctor877

full member

Activity: 896

Merit: 115

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 11, 2014, 06:55:12 AM

You guys still don't get it that real bottoms aren't temporal, but they last for weeks or more.
These "quick recoveries" are made by players with twitchy fingers and the same twitchy fingers come to play when the price doesn't seem to rise any more.

Don't take your advice from tools like rpietila, who is a bagholder at 460$, who was certain that the price won't drop below 380 just yesterday and who generally just can't understand any general concept of an efficient market.

As far as I have noticed, the capitulations consists of a bottom level (in this case the 400-450) and then maybe few flash crashes to lower levels (340).

And I think it is pretty absurd to think that anyone who bought @ 460$ is a bagholder when the price is at 40$ lower.

Mervyn_Pumpkinhead

legendary

Activity: 876

Merit: 1000

You guys still don't get it that real bottoms aren't temporal, but they last for weeks or more.
These "quick recoveries" are made by players with twitchy fingers and the same twitchy fingers come to play when the price doesn't seem to rise any more.

Don't take your advice from tools like rpietila, who is a bagholder at 460$, who was certain that the price won't drop below 380 just yesterday and who generally just can't understand the general concept of an efficient market.

Carra23

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1000

Need a campaign manager? PM me

Quote from: doctor877 on April 11, 2014, 06:14:35 AM

This is looking too obvious inverse head and shoulders, could it be?

Very likely. Its good for my scalp too.

rudius

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: doctor877 on April 11, 2014, 06:14:35 AM

This is looking too obvious inverse head and shoulders, could it be?

I agree this seems too good to be true. But looking at the volume, this is not fake. People have bought the dips (china again)

_ajv_

newbie

Activity: 20

Merit: 0

Quote from: doctor877 on April 11, 2014, 06:14:35 AM

This is looking too obvious inverse head and shoulders, could it be?

Seems so.

If we break 420 today, it's quite probable that the bear trend is over and the very bottom was @ 339,79. Just slightly lower than my abp!

However, if 420 is not broken today, the bear trend may continue for quite some time, as there seems not to be shortage of sellers. Gosh I wish I had more spare fiat to buy moar.

Basis for my TA:

https://i.imgur.com/K0LXMNB.png

http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com/images/technicalanalysis/HeadShouldersReverseER2.gif

Kramerc

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

The longer and fiercer this downtrend is, and the more suffering we have to endure over the next period of time, the more glorious will the next uptrend be for those of us that try to understand bitcoin. Fuck the moon, that's underachieving in a nutshell.

I have a simple method to fight the urge to sell. I keep buying.

Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 236. (Read 907227 times)