Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 257. (Read 907227 times)

what in your opinion happens to those big farms if the price hits -$200?

Thanks again for your fractal chart.  Just to confirm: is the vertical scale stretched on the photoshopped version?  The growth spurt predicted in % for the "super bubble" is actually bigger than the growth spurt in 2011, correct?  Do you know what the scaling factor is?

In my opinion, for bitcoin to witness a "super bubble," we'd need ETFs trading on NASDAQ or NYSE and significant deployment of bitcoin ATMs around the world.  People must have he ability to buy big.  Therefore, I think the bubble would have to occur either after the ETFs are available, or, more likely, the bubble would start a month before the ETF is ready (due to pre-emptive buying by insiders).  Since I doubt we'll see ETFs until late 2014 or 2015, a huge ramp in price before the fall 2014 would surprise me (but I am not implying that the price will remain stable at $450 either).  

Witnessing a "super bubble" would be fascinating.  I expect the media would begin to talk about all the benefits of bitcoin that we've known all along, as well as trivialize its challenges.  It would be a 180 deg shift in sentiment.  Some of the people you know who have dismissed bitcoin up to this point would become users, while simultaneously maintaining the view that it makes sense now (Bitcoin 2.0) because it's been "cleaned up" or it's "matured" or some nonsense like that.  

And then it would crash harder than ever.  

NOTE TO READERS: this is not a prediction--just a thought experiment.  

Absolutely wrong, and since you can't handle being corrected, it's pointless to continue arguing with you. Don't bother replying, you're now on /ignore.

Obama’s dream – raise taxes back to where they were before Reagan – 70%. That is the word behind the curtain and he may use war to accomplish that.

Former HUD Assistant Housing Secretary and investment advisor Catherine Austin Fitts...

“I don’t see Obamacare as something designed to offer healthcare. … I think the question comes down to a bigger one, which is, are we going to create a society where one hundred percent of everything is digitized and under central control?”

“Well, you have a complete breakdown of internal financial controls in the US government. … You had over $4 trillion of what is called undocumentable adjustments and to this day, [these agencies] have never, as required by law, produced audited financial statements.”

“In my experience, government is not incompetent at all. … Gridlock is a cover story, incompetence is a cover story. There is a plan, you just can’t see what it is.”

oh boy....thoughts on what happens if this crosses over Rpietila? do you expect a prolonged downtrend?

Indeed 

Absolutely wrong, and since you can't handle being corrected, it's pointless to continue arguing with you. Don't bother replying, you're now on /ignore.

I'm sure some people will use it as a signal and sell.  Sad, but true.

I'm sure some people will use it as a signal and sell.  Sad, but true.

oh boy....thoughts on what happens if this crosses over Rpietila? do you expect a prolonged downtrend?

It doesnt mean alot alone

oh boy....thoughts on what happens if this crosses over Rpietila? do you expect a prolonged downtrend?

I believe a super bubble within 6 - 18 months would be possible (let's say I give it a 20% chance of happening).  If ETFs are available, and if ATMs are widely deployed, think of the huge market we've suddenly opened up.  If it all comes together at the same time, then who knows...

I understand your point about daily mined coins, but that was true in 2011 too, was it not?  All those mined coins is part of the reason it would have to crash very hard after peaking.  

Think of the money that could be involved.  The total market capitalization of all publicly traded companies in the world was US$51.2 trillion in January 2007.  This doesn't include currency or bond markets either.  Take just 0.1% of 50 trillion and you still get $50 billion.  Pump $50 billion quickly into bitcoin, and you probably get 10X market-cap amplification (rather than Risto's assumed 3.2X equilibrium amplification).  This takes you to $500 billion market cap and 13 million coins, so $40,000 per BTC.   Yeah of course it crashes, but I think it is certainly possible to see $40,000 per BTC within the next 18 months.  

Again, this is not a prediction  Just a thought experiment.  

You cannot have a 100k BTC right now or in a few months: 3600 coins produced per day x 100k each = 360mn USD per day just to buy the daily production. Not to mention all those who'll be dumping because they'll be rich from selling their 10 BTCs for 1 mn USD. Who is going to throw all these billions in the market?

For comparison purposes, daily mining of gold is at 7 tons per day (x40mn USD each = 280 mn USD per day to buy the daily production).

You cannot have a 100k BTC right now or in a few months: 3600 coins produced per day x 100k each = 360mn USD per day just to buy the daily production. Not to mention all those who'll be dumping because they'll be rich from selling their 10 BTCs for 1 mn USD. Who is going to throw all these billions in the market?

For comparison purposes, daily mining of gold is at 7 tons per day (x40mn USD each = 280 mn USD per day to buy the daily production).

Thanks, Peter.

I just put one chart upon the other in photoshop and it astonished me how well they fit.

How could adoption grow this quickly?
You have answered that question better than I could.

You also make me realize a very good point:
the supercrash of 2015 (100k to 3k) would correspond to the CHASM of bitcoin adoption (1-3%).
That correspondence increases the probability of the 2014 superbubble scenario, in my opinion.

Take a look at this fractal:



It compares
the bubbles of Oct2010 + Jan2011 + April-May2011
vs
the bubbles of Jan-Mar2013 + Nov2013 + May-Sept2014?

The top of the next bubble would peak around 100,000 USD/XBT at around end of September 2014 (6 months from now).


Edited: dates corrected (prebubbles were in 2010, not in 2011, and superbubble was in 2011, not in 2012)

Nice graph Trolololo.

People often scoff at bold predictions (either bullish or bearish) but based on bitcoin's volatility numbers alone, we expect the price to either be much higher or much lower in a year or two.  

How could your scenario play out?  According to the Metcalfe model, a 100X growth in price would correspond with a 10X growth in adoption levels (from roughly 0.1-0.2% to 1-2%).  Could adoption grow this quickly?  

Many financial surveys point out that only 2 - 5% of people would be willing to buy bitcoins, suggesting that there is already more than 10X additional demand.  But then why aren't they buying?

I would argue that it is presently too difficult to both buy and secure one's coins.  This must change.

As we speak, at least 1,000 bitcoin ATMs are being deployed across the world and more will come later.  This is vital infrastructure to allow people to exchange cash for coins should a new bull run begin.    

Similarly, Second Market and the Winklevoss twins are pushing towards regulated bitcoin exchange products (ETFs).  These represent important services to allow people to confidently store their coins.  

In conclusion, if a new bull run begins as this infrastructure is falling into place, and if the ETFs arrive in the early/mid-porition of this bull run, then I think your scenario is entirely possible.  

It is interesting that the "super crash" in your graph would correspond to the adoption level (1 - 3%) of the "chasm" on the technology adoption curve.

I saw a TV documentary and it said 7% (I remember that well) and they said they hoped to reach 10% very soon. I saw the racks and racks of ASICs in a huge cooled warehouse-like facility and he was adding more continuously. I don't remember the name. They said they were keeping the exact location secret. The title was something like "The man who owns 10% of Bitcoin".

Found it:

http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2014/03/meet-the-manic-miner-who-wants-to-mint-10-of-all-new-bitcoins/

"2.2 petahash"

That was months ago. Surely it has increased since then. So you are the one who needs to get your "facts" straight before you attack.  

one miner has 10% of network hash rate all in one location in East Washington.