Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 255. (Read 907227 times)

That is not true. The loudest are small time crooks. The biggest crooks are hidden. And that is a fact.

Please if you want to say I am crook, just say it.

The loudest liberators are usually the biggest crooks. Always been like this, and always will.

Risto I thought we were working to liberate the world? What are you doing now?

I don't understand you now. What happened to you?

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Okay I remember you saying that the masses need to be governed. Maybe you just figure it is destiny so embrace Bitcoin no matter what. But why give up on every other smaller possibility with potentially higher gains?

I know. Because even if you put 10% of your networth in them it wouldn't significantly increase the 100% of your networth?

Thus it is just laziness?

This is what happens to big capital. It gets lazy. And that is why capital must always be destroyed, else the world will not prosper.

We don't need bluebloods. We need to destroy the bluebloods algorithmically.

Then it is in your eye If I quote something and say something in response, it may be confirmation or rejection or only distantly related to the quoted part, like in this case.

I don't doubt it.  Where am I questioning this?  You keep attributing me with some sort of malice which isn't there.

But you use EMA as a buy/sell signal (and I'm sure you cross reference with other indicators as well).
I'm pretty sure you have some personal trading rules based on those signals and that you are disciplined enough to stick to those rules and signals.  

I imagine you don't dismiss those signals when they tell you something you don't like.

The weekly standard EMA hasn't crossed yet but when/if it does it would be appropriate to consider that we are in a bear market similar to the last time they were crossed, roughly Dec 2012.  

You can "weigh" all the signals and come up with a holistic impression, but lets not rubbish them just because they don't fit a personal projection (which you are not doing, btw but that is what Aminorex is telling me).

You realize we said the same thing mathematically. You are simply saying it is worth betting a smaller amount on smaller probabilities.

In that case, you should be buying altcoins but you don't. Ostensibly you don't want any development that could actually help humanity. You talk about how Bitcoin is going to help the world, but the facts are it is fully centralized and is driving us towards a fiat result and thus it can only be a world governance fiat result.

How you could possibly deny that, I can not comprehend. You would have to explain it to me.

And that is why I am not happy with you. At least I don't hide it.

Perhaps you don't comprehend why diversity is critical to freedom?! But I find it very difficult to believe you don't understand that already.

I can't figure you out. Have you joined the cabal?

Edit: it like, "dude what happened to you, did you get infected with a Bitcoin delirium virus". Why not continue to be a speculator and play to the resilience of diverse bets? What caused you to become so monotonically myopic on Bitcoin at the cost of every other smaller probability with higher potential gains?

That is why you need for that $100,000 to be true. Because you don't want to admit to yourself that you need to be buying altcoins.

Did you just get lazy? Yeah that is the only rational explanation (and add also your fantasy about being a Baron and having a roundtable with Knights). I'm sure you didn't join the cabal literally, but sort of figuratively with your goal to have lifestyle as an aristocrat blueblood.

I am thinking that you actually hate nerds. You don't want it to be true that a nerd could be more powerful than a blueblood. I am thinking it makes you very uncomfortable the prospect that there could be continual competition and technological disruption.

Or maybe you believe in the Moldbug theory, "there can only be one" (winner in crypto-currency). If Moldbug is correct, it is in direct opposition to his philosophy of the Dark Enlightenment.

Was the youtube video( neat!) filmed by the drone ?

Now you are bullshitting our newbies, that is not nice!

I would say it is a 50/50 coin flip, but if you win, you get 10 times return, if you lose, you just lose what you had. Invest accordingly.

An Estonian newspaper has translated all my ramblings and published them, found a good photo of me, and ordered a drone strike to my castle. See the totality here.

Now I will give you some insight into how I merge or generalize cross disciplines. People ask me to give them a list of books I read. I don't. I just think about things and read research papers sometimes, etc..

I believe this can also be related conceptually (and probably also analytically) to Taleb's Antifragility.

I only skimmed these references yet it appears what this is generatively saying is it is infinitely costly to have infinite disorder (i.e. perfectly equiprobable systems or infinite degrees-of-freedom), and we express such relationships asymptotically. Actually I have explored this independently at my blog (and also my work on computer language type theory, or let's just say semantics) wherein I have reasoned that for anything to exist, infinity can't be observed.

I believe this is an overly broad concept (yeah long-tails happen, so what?) to use to use as a rationale against a much more well supported specific theory that I promulgated about Bitcoin's adoption fitting a log-logistic rate of adoption.



Absolutely. The chances of it not are astronomically small.

The issue I am raising is the rate of growth going forward is probably not as high as what Risto has been promulgating. I am seeing something on the order of $4000 - $10,000 by the end of 2015. $100,000 is mostly fantasy with about the same probability as Bitcoin going to $50. $100,000 is more probable than Bitcoin going to $10 and never recovering, but that isn't saying much.

hi, i just have one question. i dont mind the mid term bleeding etc.. sorry to be asking the obvious whats its like for the long term, > 1 year, is it going to recover? i just need to know that i can keep holding.

My judgement on the fundamentals and potential of Bitcoin is completely unchanged from 2013.

I think that should be obvious. Exchanges are a bunch of crooks who steal both your USD and BTC, and as a bonus your identity. Small amounts I can instapay -7%, larger amounts up to BTC1,000: -5%.

What should we set the EMA to?
Sunny?
Optimistic?

How can it be unempirical.  It is two settings to judge a period.
Fine, change the settings until it draws a story that fits your point of view.  Highly scientific.

Those default settings do a good job describing the times we have had a bearish market, so when they cross its probable that's where we'll be again.

IRCC, for Risto, the 4 hour EMA is one of his significant buy/sell signals (I recall him saying something along the lines of "follow this and you should be rich")...but he's misguided too?


Yes, it's really sad that people use the tools at their disposable to inform their decision making.  

As for scary pictures.  I notice there's a lot of pictures used here to describe bright, cheery scenarios, which could be as equally baseless.

Pretty much every indicator that shows we are having a bad time you dismiss --- each that predicts optimism you embrace: this seems highly unscientific.

But hey, I need strong medication

I understand you want to buy as cheap as possible - but why anyone would sell you btc below market prices?

The scenario thinking is funny in the sense that sometimes the outcome universe is polarized. For example a coin toss rarely gives any other result except heads or tails. When it starts falling towards one of these, it ends up that side up with a high probability. The probability for NOT(heads OR tails) is practically zero.

What we know with high confidence is that Bitcoin bubbles form such that more interest raises price raises hashpower raises confidence raises media raises net worth of leading bitcoiners raises infrastructure investments raises usability raises userbase raises price etc.

What we don't yet know is whether there is a functioning downward trend scenario actually available, or whether it is more of bears' imagination. In short term, anything can happen. But there is no evidence yet that a downtrend could last for 6 months, the longest one we've had was 5 months in 2011 and now we are 4 months into a downtrend.

With financial assets, the efficient market theory dictates that price should be the discounted expected value of future earnings (well not directly applicable to money but you get the idea). Currently the price is set in exchanges that may not function at all honestly. In the extreme case, everything they produce for you to see, userbases, reserves, orderbook, orders, volumes, prices, were a total lie. And one such big exchange just closed down taking a million customer coins with it. In this kind of environment, you cannot trust absolutely anything. If you need to trade blind, then the only way to trade profitably is to buy low and sell high, and not even try any momentum / TA stuff.

In a sense I await for the breakdown from 400, because it is either a complete fabricated lie, in which case I buy more and thank cordially for the opportunity. Or it is the selling pressure from U.S. and China rulings culminating in a rout, in which case I buy because it is short term. Or it is a panic reaction, followed by leveraged long liquidation, in which case I buy because there is no downside. Or if it is a long slide downwards, in which case I buy because I would not be here if I had not bought after the downtrend in 2011.

I could go on by assuming a certain low price for Bitcoin and then calculating the economic parameters such as how much new investment is needed to support miner sales etc. But don't have time here

Despite what AnonyMint says, I fully acknowledge the possibility that we see a flashdip to $200. What I don't believe is that you can habitually buy bitcoins for $200. The sellers that would supply such bitcoins are soon relieved of their bitcoins. I know the mind of whales, being one myself. I also know the number of coins the small holders have, because that is my main economic research interest for the last half a year.

TL; DR: All things considered, I don't see Bitcoin is structured to allow a downtrend, and stick to my earlier forecast that the turmoil is over by mid-April and we close the month at 500 minimum.

Those puts we talked about are starting to look good again.

I hope you're right about the price.  There are a confluence of unique thresholds around $400...

Can you tell us some other sources to introduce us to your style of analysis? I'm not familiar with many of the terms you use but am guessing they are some form of systems or chaos theory.

Edit : for aminorex. Sorry for brevity, posting from a phone on EVDO from Ketala.

There is really much gold already in this world, and it is useless. Still not only your mentioned daily production is constantly bought by the market, the entire gold stock is leveraged by perhaps 10x-100x by financial actors, to make it accessible to investors. With gold they can do it (unbacked paper leverage), because people are not accustomed to storing physical gold.

With Bitcoin, the exchange ecosystem is now so in shambles that not many trust to store their coins there. The only other option is that they want them in personal possession, which withdraws them from any possible fraudster's fractional reserve.

World's paper wealth is astounding, measured in $100s of trillions. Recently, in one tax haven alone, there was bank accounts worth $32,000 billion. Consider the math.

To raise Bitcoin's price to $100k, the marketcap would have to rise to $1,300 billion. This would mean about $130 billion new investment. Of course that is a lot of money, but that is <1% of what was stored in that one bank. Also Bitcoin could find its way to bigger players, even FX reserves.

It is entirely possible for Bitcoin's price to hit $100k in 6 months there is absolutely no question about it.

Probable? No. Not yet. And if you want to bet for the outcome, all you need to do is to buy at $420 and pocket 238x gains after 6 months. The probability for this scenario is certainly higher than that, given that Bitcoin already exhibited similar behaviour only 2 bubbles ago. (33% probability for a superbubble right now is too much imo, but I would give 15-20% if asked). In EV terms, wildly profitable anyway.

I am still "mopping up excess liquidity" from bitcoin markets. So if you want to sell at a slight discount to the exchanges, contact me. I have not bought anything, which is a good indication that the selling pressure comes not from the economically informed 

Informal language referring to self-organized criticality, as e.g. the Gutenberg-Richter law.  The seminal reference is Bak,Tang,Wiesenfeld (1987).

That's ridiculous, lol.  Yes, some miners would lose money. Mayeb some big shops would close down. Meanwhile others would join with less hash rate. Miners will only leave to the extent of the price drop. Good grief.