Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 254. (Read 907212 times)

there is no evidence for that argument, and there is some pretty interesting evidence against that argument in the realm of quantum physics.

 - anything is possible. did you know that in the highest study of philosophy, even the validity mathematics is being debated.

I not only believe there is only one possible future, but also that the whole existence has been "written" before being played. But from the human mind perspective that is shut-down in the space-time illusion, probabilities is the only way to make assessments, preparations, investments in relation with the future.

You have been FA trumpeting that we are visiting lower lows in the 300's and 200's.
I agree with you, and probability of that is bigger than the fractal I posted. 2 or 3 times bigger at least.

But markets are irrational.
And FA is not enough.
FA, TA (& fractals), market sentiment... all them help, but none of them is perfect. Joining them together gives you a better picture. That's all.

Anyhow, the big picture is that bitcoin's value on the long term will be huge or zero.
Is the trend is your friend, bitcoin longterm log trend is still my lover.
For me, it's worse to lose the next choochoo than lose the fiat (having invested the fiat I don't mind to lose).


The "child chart" I posted helps to visualize which is the timeframe, and the order of magnitude of the price, in case we repeat the superbubble of 2010; because future log trends are difficult to visualize for most of the people.

I consider R Peter's Metcalfe's bitcoin fit chart much more interesting than mine, and we should resume in that direction.




I agree with that!

Risto does that very well.
What are the probabilities you discern for each scenario??

Edit: Your post https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6049626 answers my question.

There are no such things as possibilities and probabilities. There is only one 'possible' future.

http://www.ntslibrary.com/PDF%20Books/Necessity%20or%20Contingency.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diodorus_Cronus#Master_Argument

That was not "all" of us. Only two people.  

I think the chinese ban rumor is well exhausted and is getting established into the "past news" territory.

I think reversal happens about here. I mean, who will sell coins below 400 ? I will be buying heavily if we get there.

So you all think that that is it ? we are reversing ?  I am not buying it...

Food for thought: Capitulation rarely occurs when it is expected.

I remember waiting for sub $50 coins when price was $60-70

Same for the last wave, to find the top.

When everyone is waiting for sub $400 and the bulls are starting to expect more downtrend, then i'm buying with confidence

Risto is right, long live Risto.  

The vast majority of the wealthy elite achieved it through State violence, not because of talent or leadership...Corporate welfare, intellectual 'property', barriers to entry, etc.

AnonyMint, I think you should let the wealthy philosophise about who is getting wealthy and how.
Maybe, just maybe, people get wealthy for many different reasons.
If followers didn't have any talent, the leaders and decision-makers would have no support to make anything happen.

Sorry. I also have no idea.

Perhaps it is my habit of quoting someone and then talking about something unrelated with harsh words, which in no way is intended to attack the previous poster.

You wrote you are not wealthy. You wrote you hope to become wealthy because of Risto. You wrote your motivation is to give to charity.

You don't get wealthy for those reasons.

To get wealthy requires being able to think for yourself correctly. God doesn't entrust talents in surrogates who are just following another person. He would put the talents in the person who is actually making the decisions.

And people don't like to hear someone tell them frankly.

I am open to read any helpful response that is not lacking certain components of human communication. You, however, assume that I put up a facade for myself, you assume that I have the inability to create something of value (which I do btw almost every day after work), you assume that it's all about me getting wealthy, you insult me, you state something neither Risto nor I have said in the way you display --> you lack certain components of human communication --> communication with you seems to be unsuccessful

It's a shame, because you have some good points to make, but you just spoil your wisdom. I won't respond anymor but this one time to you, because more responses would not make sense, so please feel free to disprove all of my words in your next response without me answering.

Everything is a possibility. We can fit an elephant to a mouse using a math model.

The real value is in correctly discerning probabilities.

What?

Seriously, I have no idea what you are talking about, now.

If you are so sure of your beliefs why not engage in some discussion instead of descending into cryptic, personal attacks. 

I know you weren't addressing me and don't want to hear my opinion, but I think your post exemplifies some very important issues.

First of all, it is too late to sell. The time to sell was at $600 when I first posted in this thread to say that the chart looks like the silver chart. I sold my remaining BTC in the $600s.

The chance that we go below $400 then $300 gets exceedingly smaller, thus it is too risky to sell now at $420. You could have sold at $490 after when I wrote in this thread 2 days ago that it was a bull trap and I was sure we are going lower.

If you think Bitcoin is going to $100,000 in 6 months, then you are not calculating probabilities correctly. If you said, there is a 1% chance Bitcoin goes to $100,000 by 2017, there is no way I can disagree. If you increased it to 10% by 2017, I would quibble but I wouldn't have strong confidence to disagree. If you raised it to 33% in the next 6 months as Risto is, I would say you are irrational and emphatically disagree.

So my point in replying to you is you will never be wealthy because you whorEship fantasy. Your excuse that you will give to charity is just a veiled facade to cover for your inability to actually go create something of value in this world that makes you wealthy.

What I am trying to say is there is too much fucking delusion going on here in this thread and in the Bitcoin space in general.

And that is typical of all pyramid schemes and mass manias.

I only see snake oil salesmen here, perhaps unintentional due to delirium.

Edit: And then...


You surprise me. And I incorrectly appraised you apparently.

Hahaha on myself. I confused you with frienemy .

I have agreed with your posts.

I disagree with both of you because bitcoin seems to have trouble getting past certain financial thresholds that are critical to further growth.
I still don't care much about bitcoin, but I care about the idea that bitcoin brought forward. To me, bitcoin's maximum potential is the cash transfer service, but it will never reach there with the current quality market system. I'm optimistic about the future and waiting to see see if someone could actually create an open-sourced digital currency, that would work like an actual currency, not like an overly simplified play money.

1 It is strechted vertically and horizontally.

2 Yes, but changing the strechting just a little makes the top much smaller or bigger.

3 No. Made by hand. But it can be calculated easily, because the time and price rulers have been strechted together with the candles.



I think that the most important fact of that chart comparison is that the superbubble is a possibility, the nice fitting of shape of the charts, and the order of magnitude of the price and time.

Until we break the roof of the 4 months downtrend channel, the probability of superbubble remains very low.
I guess it's around 10% by now. May be less. May be more. Who knows?
Let's wait for one or two weeks...

Long time lurker about to post for the first time here.

There are three reasons for my registering on the forum after lurking for a whole year:

1 - Eventually I can put some people on ignore
2 - In the distant future I may have time to start some kind of bitcoin charity, so that those who became rich with bitcoin can give at least a little bit back to those left behind (e.g. most of the African countries)
3 - Now I can thank a few of you guys

I will start with -3- right now:

Mr. Pietilä, I would like to thank you. Some people don't get the importance of your threads for people like me. Right now, I am not very wealthy. If I had invested in BTC when I first heard about it in 2011, I would be. I invested from spring to summer 2013 and almost decided to get out of Bitcoin again, because I didn't understand it completely. Then I read a lot of your posts, I read a lot of what other people think about you (positive and negative) and then made up my mind about the opportunities coming along with Bitcoin. It was you and a few others on this forum who let me understand the power of bitcoin. Working in a German tax business and being capable of thinking myself, I don't follow mindlessly and I'm definitively not here for kissing someone's backside. I'm fully aware that no one on this forum is able to provide spot-on predictions all of the time. But I am still happy to have increased my amount of BTCs over the last few months (though still being stuck in the 2-digit range). I will keep on hodling and even if Bitcoin fails, I don't feel like a piglet, I don't feel like mislead sheeple. I feel like having participated in the right thing.

Nonetheless, I have to admit that fear has a certain impact on me right now, but it just doesn't make sense to sell all my bitcoins right now. I wonder what impact a crash to the 200s would have on the anticipated ATH in summer. Would that lower the top?

Okay folks there you have it. So if Bitpay is not a crook, then you can expect to lose 14% of your capital in exchange spreads (+fees) just to support Bitcoin merchants by irrationally spending your BTC to them via Bitpay, then buying back BTC from Risto (or similarly uncrooked market maker).



Risto is loudly (given his repetition and stature as a "whale") pushing the concept that Bitcoin is growing 12X in price per year which is causing followers to dream of fantastical wealth which helps them to become irrational (as evident by frienemy's post which follows this one). Whereas my crudely fitted log-logistic adoption model says very roughly 10X every 16 to 20 months by now (was faster before and will be slower in the future).

Well, that depends a lot. For instance in politics, the loudest liberators are the biggest crooks. And if you take a subtle person, and compare him to a person that is very loud on plans to "liberate everyone from themselves", then it's a lot more probable that the loud one is really a crook. The same mostly applies to the "bitcoin world liberators", who act like they are about monetary freedom, but really they are after personal wealth by wealth redistribution, while not caring that bitcoin would actually create bigger distribution problems then we currently have.