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Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 253. (Read 907212 times)

hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
...has anyone calculated the window of opportunity that NSA has in order to attack it, before the network becomes too large to gain 51%?

See my earlier posts today on this topic.

2 or 3 mining pools already control 51%. Government can just regulate them.

It is getting worse over time, not better as you assumed.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
Quote from: rpietila
To raise Bitcoin's price to $100k, the marketcap would have to rise to $1,300 billion. This would mean about $130 billion new investment.

Anony:
As can be seen, I did take it into account. Please read before commenting.

And it has always been that Bitcoin liquidity is weak when we go to several thousand bitcoins at once. This was the reason why I also did not buy more when I started. If a $100millionaire considers buying into bitcoin now, why not just buy BTC5,000 and forget about it. With similar strategy I am doing very good.

Fact about Bitcoin
It does not matter, how much you paid for your bitcoins. It only matters, how many you have.

For this reason people, corporations and states who wait until "it grows bigger" are not acting smartly because they could buy the same amount for less now. Especially now, I mean this week.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087

Well I have to disagree.

Even the past is not definite. How do you prove what happened in the past? It is an argument about whose memory is accurate, yet each of us have a different aliasing error in our sampling (because no one samples the entire universe).


I assume you are disagreeing with HODL, how can I possibly be wrong about the other stuff Wink

anyway yeah I considered that, I rejected it (As per above post) I agree a memory of what happened can be subject to probabilistic outcomes, but it doesn't make sense that everything else seems to be made up of stuff between zero and one, but somehow the future and past are actually the same. They need an opposite. Clyde needs his bonnie.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001

Well I have to disagree.

Even the past is not definite. How do you prove what happened in the past? It is an argument about whose memory is accurate, yet each of us have a different aliasing error in our sampling (because no one samples the entire universe).



agreed. there is no authentic 'evidence' of the past. there is no way to prove theories of statistics without probing the past. in philosophy, it is still not proven that 1+1=2. simplified, that is 1=1. I know that 1 is 1, but 1 is not necessarily equal to 1. In science they are different by nature simply by that fact that they are distinguished on either side of the equation, in a different space and time etc...
maths is invalid.


besides, if we had indeed scientifically collected a statistical pool of data enough to 'prove' the past, we would have changed the past entirely. quantum physics.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087

Everything past is definite, everything future is probabilistic.  


No, there is no difference between the past and the future. Causality is not probabilistic, neither in the past nor in the future.

Einstein:

 "I do not believe in free will. Schopenhauer's words: 'Man can do what he wants, but he cannot will what he wants,[Der Mensch kann wohl tun, was er will, aber er kann nicht wollen, was er will]' accompany me in all situations throughout my life and reconcile me with the actions of others, even if they are rather painful to me. This awareness of the lack of free will keeps me from taking myself and my fellow men too seriously as acting and deciding individuals, and from losing my temper." Schopenhauer's clearer, actual words were: "You can do what you will, but in any given moment of your life you can will only one definite thing and absolutely nothing other than that one thing." [Du kannst tun was du willst: aber du kannst in jedem gegebenen Augenblick deines Lebens nur ein Bestimmtes wollen und schlechterdings nichts anderes als dieses eine.]

I dunno why you brought causality into it. I'm 100% with nagarjan on that one, its his most fundamental thought...

Neither from itself nor from another,
Nor from both,
Nor without a cause,
Does anything whatever, anywhere arise.

If my words misled you (highly probable! i get excited and just spraff sometimes) into thinking that, then I apologise that wasn't my intention.

My original hypothesis still stands the future is probable outcomes, the past is memory of what happened. I think that makes the different (in fact I believe they are opposites hence the term anti-future).

You can make them semi-equivalent by suggesting that what happened becomes probabilistic based on the observer. (You said X, no I said Y. both remembering different) but I have since discarded this, as it felt the 'future/anti-future' concept sat better with everything else. Yin yang etc.

Maybe anti-future is just another way of viewing observation, it cancels out future (possibility) leaving us with a concrete instant in 'time'. (I kept calling it 'T' but I guess planck time would be better) 1 unit later fresh observation, fresh new reality! Probably not much different from the last one, but possibly is Smiley The reason we find it so hard to see is because its all happening so fast, and our observational capacity is just so woefully underpowered on the quantum scale. We can see a tiny fraction of electromagnetic radiation, we careen through ~10^42 outcomes in the blink of an eye. Its bound to look complicated to us Smiley


legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1049
A different kind of question:

Taking the three following assumptions as correct:

1. Bitcoin was not a creation of the Elite / NSA

2. Bitcoin will inevitably compete with fiat - at least as a store of wealth, primarily because of the debasement of fiat

3. Bitcoin will be attacked with all means, including NSA trying to 51% attack it, in order to preserve the multi-trillion $$$ fiat system

...has anyone calculated the window of opportunity that NSA has in order to attack it, before the network becomes too large to gain 51%?

I think, financially, the expiration of this window plus a year or so just to be certain, will be the moment when uncertainty can be substantially reduced against the possibility that an investment can be rendered worthless due to a 51% rape. It's actually when big money, like government* money that wants to diversify their foreign exchange with things beyond gold and silver, can actually flow in.

* of non-globalized countries, as it is also assumed that globalized countries act in accord under one shadowy leadership and would try to maintain the fiat scam.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
You realize we said the same thing mathematically. You are simply saying it is worth betting a smaller amount on smaller probabilities.

In that case, you should be buying altcoins but you don't. Ostensibly you don't want any development that could actually help humanity. You talk about how Bitcoin is going to help the world, but the facts are it is fully centralized and is driving us towards a fiat result and thus it can only be a world governance fiat result.

How you could possibly deny that, I can not comprehend. You would have to explain it to me.

And that is why I am not happy with you. At least I don't hide it.

Perhaps you don't comprehend why diversity is critical to freedom?! But I find it very difficult to believe you don't understand that already.

I can't figure you out. Have you joined the cabal?

Edit: it like, "dude what happened to you, did you get infected with a Bitcoin delirium virus". Why not continue to be a speculator and play to the resilience of diverse bets? What caused you to become so monotonically myopic on Bitcoin at the cost of every other smaller probability with higher potential gains?

That is why you need for that $100,000 to be true. Because you don't want to admit to yourself that you need to be buying altcoins.

Did you just get lazy? Yeah that is the only rational explanation (and add also your fantasy about being a Baron and having a roundtable with Knights). I'm sure you didn't join the cabal literally, but sort of figuratively with your goal to have lifestyle as an aristocrat blueblood.

I am thinking that you actually hate nerds. You don't want it to be true that a nerd could be more powerful than a blueblood. I am thinking it makes you very uncomfortable the prospect that there could be continual competition and technological disruption.

Or maybe you believe in the Moldbug theory, "there can only be one" (winner in crypto-currency). If Moldbug is correct, it is in direct opposition to his philosophy of the Dark Enlightenment.

There is this problem that I try to coordinate with you but you make it difficult. That's why you don't know what I am up to, and accuse me of inaction. But since you know so well, why not post here what I should be doing! That I can review without revealing my plans.

Okay mea culpa me. After writing that I remembered you mentioned publicly about buying some Auroracoin.

I guess I am aghast that you don't ever talk critically about Bitcoin. It is always rose colored glasses. Yes Bitcoin provides some things, but it taketh other things.

I think you will find that creekbore and I just are wishing you would be more forthcoming on balance and transparency about Bitcoin's pluses and minuses.

I suppose I hate snake oil salesmen.
sr. member
Activity: 263
Merit: 280
I would say it is a 50/50 coin flip, but if you win, you get 10 times return, if you lose, you just lose what you had. Invest accordingly.

+1
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521

I not only believe there is only one possible future, but also that the whole existence has been "written" before being played. But from the human mind perspective that is shut-down in the space-time illusion, probabilities is the only way to make assessments, preparations, investments in relation with the future.

there is no evidence for that argument, and there is some pretty interesting evidence against that argument in the realm of quantum physics.

 - anything is possible. did you know that in the highest study of philosophy, even the validity mathematics is being debated.

Maha, i say this.

There are infinitely possible futures, which are all the realisation of the outcome of the probabilistic nature of everything around us. When time 'T' happens the wave function of probable outcomes collapses into that instant's reality. The macro scale resolves, based on the quantum scale.

All our individual consciousness appear to exist in that instant 'T' - the present. The future exists insomuch as it is the set of probable outcomes, the past (lets call it anti future) only exists as a collective memory (echo?) of actual outcomes, observed by 'T' collapsing the wave function(s).

Consciousness is observation, our perception of time is based on the repeated collapse of probable outcomes. Everything past is definite, everything future is probabilistic.  

So ass chestnut says anything is possible. (my caveat being within the scope of what can possibly be probable e.g. 'time going backwards' isn't possible because time doesn't have a direction, it doesn't exist, it is just a 'memory')

practically speaking. HODL Wink

Well I have to disagree.

Even the past is not definite. How do you prove what happened in the past? It is an argument about whose memory is accurate, yet each of us have a different aliasing error in our sampling (because no one samples the entire universe).


I dump this here for lack of a better place to quickly record this publicly in such an unpolished state.

Someday I want to blog in careful detail about Eric's insightful refutation of Schrödinger’s Cat (which parallels some of the ways I initially thought about it, yet he adds some details such as the decoherence aspect):

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=690

The quick, uncareful dump of my thoughts is to tie this into my existing articles on my blog. Eric S. Raymond is correct that observation doesn't have an absolute point (everything in our universe is relative), but he missed is the conclusion from his own point which that the classical physics objects are also superimposed. There is no absolute point where classical objects exist and are no longer superimposed. Every day the earth has billions of simultaneous realities going which do not connected to your life in any way that you could possibly measure scientifically unless the speed-of-light was not finite and you could measure forever to capture all the possible long-tail butterfly effects of zillions of interactions of events that are not observable to you now.

There are few times I have been able to see things that Eric didn't and corrected him... (more to read at this post)
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1004
I think that the most important fact of that chart comparison is that the superbubble is a possibility, the nice fitting of shape of the charts, and the order of magnitude of the price and time.


Everything is a possibility. We can fit an elephant to a mouse using a math model.
The real value is in correctly discerning probabilities.

There are no such things as possibilities and probabilities. There is only one 'possible' future.

http://www.ntslibrary.com/PDF%20Books/Necessity%20or%20Contingency.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diodorus_Cronus#Master_Argument

Actually every day there a billions of different futures occurring and you can't possibly know them all.

Yes, my future is different than your future, and the same is true for the past. But neither the past nor the future is open.
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1004

Everything past is definite, everything future is probabilistic.  


No, there is no difference between the past and the future. Causality is not probabilistic, neither in the past nor in the future.

Einstein:

 "I do not believe in free will. Schopenhauer's words: 'Man can do what he wants, but he cannot will what he wants,[Der Mensch kann wohl tun, was er will, aber er kann nicht wollen, was er will]' accompany me in all situations throughout my life and reconcile me with the actions of others, even if they are rather painful to me. This awareness of the lack of free will keeps me from taking myself and my fellow men too seriously as acting and deciding individuals, and from losing my temper." Schopenhauer's clearer, actual words were: "You can do what you will, but in any given moment of your life you can will only one definite thing and absolutely nothing other than that one thing." [Du kannst tun was du willst: aber du kannst in jedem gegebenen Augenblick deines Lebens nur ein Bestimmtes wollen und schlechterdings nichts anderes als dieses eine.]
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
Risto you posted today about how much capital is in the world how only $1.3 trillion of that can send BTC to $100,000.

First of all, that is incorrect, because price is set by marginal flow, not by entire market cap flow. But this point is actually more in your favor. The capital needed to send BTC to $100,000 is much less than you think.

However, large capital holders are not coming to BTC (now), because the fact is capital needs liquidity. Bitcoin's float is way too small even for a $100 millionaire. Rather it is headed into USA stocks and the dollar:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/04/02/us-corporates-all-cashed-up/

Quote
The numbers are in. U.S. companies (excluding banks) are all cashed up holding more cash on their balance sheets than ever in history – some $1.64 trillion at the end of 2013. That is up 12% over 2012. If history repeats, they will start to buy their own shares back when the market turns down. So much for US equities being overvalued.


You can't accelerate adoption by making observations about nominal sizes (even relative nominal sizes). This is the greatest failing of the human race. You see where Jason Hommel ended up with his crazy projections of $50,000 per oz silver. There are structural impediments that take time. This is because the universe would not exist if there were no friction, as past and present would collapse into a single infinitesimal point in time.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
this argument that the future is set in stone is not falsifiable. The very fact that you must 'believe' such a theory implies that you could be wrong. and what would that mean......?
there is more scientific evidence to disprove this theory than there is to prove it.
and naturally, other explanations are possible. But the nature of any given explanaton cannot be known to us, because as you will know, to know what something is means you have changed its nature.

hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
I think that the most important fact of that chart comparison is that the superbubble is a possibility, the nice fitting of shape of the charts, and the order of magnitude of the price and time.


Everything is a possibility. We can fit an elephant to a mouse using a math model.
The real value is in correctly discerning probabilities.

There are no such things as possibilities and probabilities. There is only one 'possible' future.

http://www.ntslibrary.com/PDF%20Books/Necessity%20or%20Contingency.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diodorus_Cronus#Master_Argument

Actually every day there a billions of different futures occurring and you can't possibly know them all. This is why following a leader is unfit.

Opportunity is borne in the small and diverse, i.e. specific knowledge.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087

Bitcoin was carefully designed for this outcome by some very astute strategists. Appears to be the work of a black budget think tank.

Note my prior post I provided a link to Catherine Austin Fitts audio interview wherein she describes the $4 trillion black budget of the USA. It is incredulous but true. Secretary of Defense Rumsfield confirmed $2.3 trillion of it the day before 9/11 and then all the records were destroyed by the missleairplane that hit the Pentagon the next day. Armstrong has also written about this and has inside knowledge. Just last week, a smoking gun book was published by Jim Rickards (former covert agent) who was in the room with the government and also corroborated by Max Keiser's first hand conversions with Cantor Fitzgerald admitting that government was aware of the short options on two airlines before 9/11.


All I've heard is naive theory of a lone man doing this, covering all his tracks like a covert agent yet not being one. A brilliant lone cryptography researcher whom no one ever heard of, never published anything before, who managed to obfuscate his activity from all his family and friends.
And "he" (Satoshi Inc) predicted all the ill effects and was promoting them, e.g. he expected ASICs and corporations to take control of mining.


Very interesting statements.

If the elite is behind bitcoin, don't you think that the chances of succes folds hundreds of times?
absolutely yes. if you are gonna be a slave, might as well throw in some stockholm syndrome.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087

I not only believe there is only one possible future, but also that the whole existence has been "written" before being played. But from the human mind perspective that is shut-down in the space-time illusion, probabilities is the only way to make assessments, preparations, investments in relation with the future.

there is no evidence for that argument, and there is some pretty interesting evidence against that argument in the realm of quantum physics.

 - anything is possible. did you know that in the highest study of philosophy, even the validity mathematics is being debated.

Maha, i say this.

There are infinitely possible futures, which are all the realisation of the outcome of the probabilistic nature of everything around us. When time 'T' happens the wave function of probable outcomes collapses into that instant's reality. The macro scale resolves, based on the quantum scale.

All our individual consciousness appear to exist in that instant 'T' - the present. The future exists insomuch as it is the set of probable outcomes, the past (lets call it anti future) only exists as a collective memory (echo?) of actual outcomes, observed by 'T' collapsing the wave function(s).

Consciousness is observation, our perception of time is based on the repeated collapse of probable outcomes. Everything past is definite, everything future is probabilistic.  

So ass chestnut says anything is possible. (my caveat being within the scope of what can possibly be probable e.g. 'time going backwards' isn't possible because time doesn't have a direction, it doesn't exist, it is just a 'memory')

practically speaking. HODL Wink
sr. member
Activity: 263
Merit: 280

Bitcoin was carefully designed for this outcome by some very astute strategists. Appears to be the work of a black budget think tank.

Note my prior post I provided a link to Catherine Austin Fitts audio interview wherein she describes the $4 trillion black budget of the USA. It is incredulous but true. Secretary of Defense Rumsfield confirmed $2.3 trillion of it the day before 9/11 and then all the records were destroyed by the missleairplane that hit the Pentagon the next day. Armstrong has also written about this and has inside knowledge. Just last week, a smoking gun book was published by Jim Rickards (former covert agent) who was in the room with the government and also corroborated by Max Keiser's first hand conversions with Cantor Fitzgerald admitting that government was aware of the short options on two airlines before 9/11.


All I've heard is naive theory of a lone man doing this, covering all his tracks like a covert agent yet not being one. A brilliant lone cryptography researcher whom no one ever heard of, never published anything before, who managed to obfuscate his activity from all his family and friends.
And "he" (Satoshi Inc) predicted all the ill effects and was promoting them, e.g. he expected ASICs and corporations to take control of mining.


Very interesting statements.

If the elite is behind bitcoin, don't you think that the chances of succes folds hundreds of times?
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
You realize we said the same thing mathematically. You are simply saying it is worth betting a smaller amount on smaller probabilities.

In that case, you should be buying altcoins but you don't. Ostensibly you don't want any development that could actually help humanity. You talk about how Bitcoin is going to help the world, but the facts are it is fully centralized and is driving us towards a fiat result and thus it can only be a world governance fiat result.

How you could possibly deny that, I can not comprehend. You would have to explain it to me.

And that is why I am not happy with you. At least I don't hide it.

Perhaps you don't comprehend why diversity is critical to freedom?! But I find it very difficult to believe you don't understand that already.

I can't figure you out. Have you joined the cabal?

Edit: it like, "dude what happened to you, did you get infected with a Bitcoin delirium virus". Why not continue to be a speculator and play to the resilience of diverse bets? What caused you to become so monotonically myopic on Bitcoin at the cost of every other smaller probability with higher potential gains?

That is why you need for that $100,000 to be true. Because you don't want to admit to yourself that you need to be buying altcoins.

Did you just get lazy? Yeah that is the only rational explanation (and add also your fantasy about being a Baron and having a roundtable with Knights). I'm sure you didn't join the cabal literally, but sort of figuratively with your goal to have lifestyle as an aristocrat blueblood.

I am thinking that you actually hate nerds. You don't want it to be true that a nerd could be more powerful than a blueblood. I am thinking it makes you very uncomfortable the prospect that there could be continual competition and technological disruption.

Or maybe you believe in the Moldbug theory, "there can only be one" (winner in crypto-currency). If Moldbug is correct, it is in direct opposition to his philosophy of the Dark Enlightenment.

There is this problem that I try to coordinate with you but you make it difficult. That's why you don't know what I am up to, and accuse me of inaction. But since you know so well, why not post here what I should be doing! That I can review without revealing my plans.
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1049
I am very confident because I have history and rationality on my side.

I would be cautious of normalcy bias.  We are dealing with iterated expansive maps.   Such systems can diverge rapidly.  It's a new technology and will introduce novel system dynamics.  Very few external analysts foresaw the collapse of the Soviet Union.  There is strong self-similarity in the price curve.  The manias seen so far may be higher order.  

That was due to being a conscious decision to "pull it" (a la WTC 7 terminology) rather than the Soviets going bankrupt.

If you check the CIA factbook for 1990-91, you'll see that USSR had ~2trn usd gdp. Its external debt was like 50 bn usd. Who the f*ck goes bankrupt and collapses with just 2.5% external debt? It's all bullshit.

There was one who "predicted" this, in writing, but his "prediction" was not really a prediction but rather knowledge of the plan ahead (as he was a KGB defector):

Quote
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anatoliy_Golitsyn

...

His books[edit]

New Lies for Old[edit]
In 1984, Golitsyn published the book New Lies For Old,[13] wherein he warned about a long-term deception strategy of seeming retreat from hard-line Communism designed to lull the West into a false sense of security, and finally economically cripple and diplomatically isolate the United States. Among other things, Golitsyn stated:
"The 'liberalization' [in the Soviet Union] would be spectacular and impressive. Formal pronouncements might be made about a reduction in the communist party's role; its monopoly would be apparently curtailed."
"If [liberalization] should be extended to East Germany, demolition of the Berlin Wall might even be contemplated."
"The European Parliament might become an all-European socialist parliament with representation from the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. 'Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals' would turn out to be a neutral, socialist Europe."
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1004
I think that the most important fact of that chart comparison is that the superbubble is a possibility, the nice fitting of shape of the charts, and the order of magnitude of the price and time.


Everything is a possibility. We can fit an elephant to a mouse using a math model.
The real value is in correctly discerning probabilities.

There are no such things as possibilities and probabilities. There is only one 'possible' future.

http://www.ntslibrary.com/PDF%20Books/Necessity%20or%20Contingency.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diodorus_Cronus#Master_Argument

I not only believe there is only one possible future, but also that the whole existence has been "written" before being played. But from the human mind perspective that is shut-down in the space-time illusion, probabilities is the only way to make assessments, preparations, investments in relation with the future.

Exactly, and the 'stone age interpretation' of quantum mechanics (Kopenhagen) is the greatest bullshit ever.

»In rerum natura nullum datur contingens, sed omnia ex necessitate divinae naturae determinata sunt ad certo modo existendum et operandum«
Spinoza

»Le mot hasard sert officieusement à voiler notre ignorance.« Quételet
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