Topic: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? - page 47. (Read 14504 times)

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan will happen all of a sudden without any warning, and that will be 100 times bloodier than the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war.

In Germany, there is already natural hysteria about the imminent shutdown of the Nord Stream for scheduled repairs.

Let's keep in mind some important facts from the very beginning:
1. 45% of Russia's federal budget in 2021 came from oil and natural gas revenues
2. 49% of Russia's crude oil and condensate exports went to European OECD nations.
3. Supplies from Russia account for about 40% of the EU's natural gas imports
4. just under three-quarters of all Russian natural gas exports went to European countries in 2021

I hate when everyone talks about how is Europe, especially Germany going to replace the dependence on Russian gas? Wait, 20 centuries have passed without Russian gas and European countries still managed to not only survive but become the most amazing countries with the highest quality of life.


How the fuck is Russia going to replace the European market?
Russia has two options:
1. China - After Saudi Arabia, Russia is the second-largest gas & oil supplier for China.
2. India - Right now Russia accounts for 2% of Indian oil import after Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Russia will try to increase its oil and gas export in China & India but we should also don't forget some details:
1. The reason why I underlined Saudi Arabia is that they are one of the largest suppliers in these countries and probably they won't let Russia to easily take over them.
2. China and India probably sees that good relationship with West is better for them and they may see that Russia isn't a country that loves freedom.
3. China may use this as an advantage and milk Russia like a cow, good for China but not for Russia.


Europe & USA have a huge advantage over Russia, this is the education. Where do people go dream to study? In Russia, no! In the USA, UK, Germany, Canada, France, Ireland, Switzerland and other countries? Hell yes! Were top scientists from Russia? Hell no! But from western countries - hell yes.


The fact is the fact - war has one advantage, it always accelerates things up. In this war, we don't need to focus on military equipment but on our weak sides, everyone sees how bad military equipment Russia has compared to the western countries. Don't you think that after all the innovations that come from the USA and Europe, can't we significantly lessen the demand on gas and oil if the situation really requires that from us as soon as possible?

At this point, we can't rule out a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. And that is the main reason why China is taking a sympathetic stance to Russia at this point. The NATO-backed Ukrainian army is getting obliterated in the last few weeks, after putting up stiff resistance till end of April. China is carefully watching the performance of the Ukrainian armed forces and the capability of the weapons and equipment that NATO provided them. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan will happen all of a sudden without any warning, and that will be 100 times bloodier than the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war.

At this point, we can't rule out a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. And that is the main reason why China is taking a sympathetic stance to Russia at this point. The NATO-backed Ukrainian army is getting obliterated in the last few weeks, after putting up stiff resistance till end of April. China is carefully watching the performance of the Ukrainian armed forces and the capability of the weapons and equipment that NATO provided them. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan will happen all of a sudden without any warning, and that will be 100 times bloodier than the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war.

At this point, we can't rule out a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. And that is the main reason why China is taking a sympathetic stance to Russia at this point. The NATO-backed Ukrainian army is getting obliterated in the last few weeks, after putting up stiff resistance till end of April. China is carefully watching the performance of the Ukrainian armed forces and the capability of the weapons and equipment that NATO provided them. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan will happen all of a sudden without any warning, and that will be 100 times bloodier than the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war.

China will stand aside, because they are smart. They will wait while others gnaw at each other and finish the remained one. China does not need to be involve into this mess. While others fight, they make their economy stronger. How many articles there are on the forum about financial difficulties, inflation and etc? A lot. How many of them are China related? Guess not many. Did China nominate sanctions against Russia? I think yes, but they are not as serious as other countries did. China is ready to substitute everything that Russia has lost due sanctions. China is ready to make and produce everything in double size for the whole world.

China will stand aside, because they are smart. They will wait while others gnaw at each other and finish the remained one. China does not need to be involve into this mess. While others fight, they make their economy stronger. How many articles there are on the forum about financial difficulties, inflation and etc? A lot. How many of them are China related? Guess not many. Did China nominate sanctions against Russia? I think yes, but they are not as serious as other countries did. China is ready to substitute everything that Russia has lost due sanctions. China is ready to make and produce everything in double size for the whole world.

China will neither harm nor help Russia - why? If very soon most of the Trans-Urals will go to China, and so ?!

Russia is an old and trusted ally of India. Indian defence is mostly dependent on Russian supplies until recently when India move to Western block for procurement of weapons like rafale jets. China defiantly don't wanna hurt Russia at this time when they have attacked on USA backed country directly.

There is some interesting news coming in from India. Russia has become the top crude oil supplier to India for the month of June. This is happening for the first time in history, as India has always depended on oil from middle east. Russia has displaced Iraq from the no.1 spot, after 1.2 million barrels of Russian crude was imported into India last month. Not sure about gas, but from what I have heard, purchases of Russian gas by Turkey and China are at all time high levels. So in this case, it is becoming easier to replace the buyer than the supplier.

almost all countries, as part of the fight against global climate change, have pledged to gradually reduce their consumption and switch to alternative energy sources.

In the short term, it appears this will be more a problem for Europe which can be solved.  However, it seems the long term affect on Russia is not going to be good as there are some negative repercussions that will occur that still aren't known.

Everything is logical and true!
Few people want to buy oil from an international terrorist and finance his terrorist war in Ukraine, with the prospect of deploying it in the Baltics and other countries.

Iraq is a source of oil supplies, in replacement of terrorists' oil. And Iraq is ready to cooperate with the US and the EU in this matter. Negotiations are already underway and preliminary agreements have been reached. By the way, for some reason they don’t write about this in the Indian media?

Well, the most "cherry on the cake" - as if you didn’t like it, but excess oil from the country of a terrorist is bought by China and India at a dumping price By the way, India can make good money on oil that it buys at $ 39-42 per barrel and resells to the EU 70-80 - do not thank for the advice

There is some interesting news coming in from India. Russia has become the top crude oil supplier to India for the month of June. This is happening for the first time in history, as India has always depended on oil from middle east. Russia has displaced Iraq from the no.1 spot, after 1.2 million barrels of Russian crude was imported into India last month. Not sure about gas, but from what I have heard, purchases of Russian gas by Turkey and China are at all time high levels. So in this case, it is becoming easier to replace the buyer than the supplier.

It can be said that almost the entire Middle East is completely controlled by the United States,
but previously what was done by Iran to get out of the shadow of the United States was certainly not easy,
actually what the United States did by controlling the middle east has been going on for a long time and we'll see what it will turn out to be

The gas ban is proving to be both. A problem for both sides. However, the long term effects will be felt more by Russia because it's easier to replace the suplier than the biyer in this case. Especialy in this capacity. It does pose a wuestion, is rhisna real turning point in earth shift towards oter sources of energy?

So far they have avoided backlash from the public. Inflation is at all time high, but a large part of the population do want to side with Ukraine. Things may get changed, once the rationing of gas is implemented and factories start to close down due to lack of piped gas. At this point, the popularity of Olaf Scholz and that of the warmonger Green Party remains intact. The big test will come after 2 weeks. Nord Stream will close down for maintenance on July 13th. And I don't think that the Russians will turn on the pipeline once the maintenance is completed on 23rd as scheduled.

Meanwhile, the world's largest chemical complex BASF is under threat of closure due to cuts in Russian gas supplies. For reference, this is an agglomeration of more than 200 plants in Germany, for which natural gas is both a source of energy and a raw material for production.