Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] - page 380.

Cnut237

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Quote from: suchmoon on January 24, 2022, 08:39:09 PM

Quote from: Cnut237 on January 24, 2022, 11:19:52 AM

I suspect that all Russia really wants is what they've always wanted... a warm water port. Anything else is just macho posturing. They want Ukraine because they want the Crimea. They want the Crimea because they want Sevastapol. But give it a few more years of global warming, and they should have plenty of warm water ports.

They've had Crimea for 8 years, and everyone (except Ukraine) seems to have shrugged it off, so why draw attention to it now? Unless you're saying this latest escalation is intended to force the West to compromise and recognize the occupation.

I'm sure they want various things, but I think most of them are 'nice to haves', the port is the 'must have'.

If they don't want Ukraine to be part of NATO, then what's the answer? Russia takes Ukraine, and it becomes part of Russia, and then Russia borders Poland and Romania, so "we don't want Poland/Romania to be part of NATO" ... If this is the main concern, then the only solution for Russia is to take over all of mainland Europe. Estonia, Latvia etc have been in NATO for years, and it may have been a kick in the Baltics for Russia, but why would Ukraine be the concern?

Russia tends to achieve its political aims by other means. They weakened Europe by influencing the Brexit referendum so that the UK left the union. They can further control Europe almost literally at the flick of a switch on the gas pipeline. They weakened the US and its standing abroad by promoting the election of one of the most divisive presidents in history, who also had the benefit of being both a halfwit and an isolationist.

Tanks are often just populist strongman crap, or the means to test an opponent's (US/NATO) resolve.

PrimeNumber7

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Quote from: LTU_btc on January 24, 2022, 02:52:28 PM

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on January 24, 2022, 01:41:38 PM

Germany seems to be another hindrance to defending Ukraine. They are willing to be subjected to economic blackmail via the Nordstream 2 pipeline, and are preventing military equipment from being sent via Germany to Ukraine.

And I'm not suprised about their actions at all. They already blocked Estonia from sending weapons to Ukraine. Offcourse, later they will impose "strict sanctions" and they will be deeply concenerned, but as we saw so many times already, sanctions don't work.

I would not be certain that Germany will follow through with sanctions. They are pushing through with the Nordstream 2 pipeline, which makes them dependent on Russia for energy. Germany is also spending well under what they promised to spend on defense and has been doing so for years.

Quote from: coolcoinz on January 24, 2022, 09:38:17 PM

Russia is doing what it wants. It took Crimea, made Belarus its puppet state, shot down a Malaysian passenger jet and blamed it on the Ukrainians, refused to give back Polish government plane that crashed in Smolensk, forced the US to cancel a deal with Poland that was supposed to place missile defense systems along its eastern border. Russian agents poisoned Sergei Skripal and his daughter, poisoned and then arrested Alexei Navalny. Putin and Lavrov often threaten other countries and lie in public. Russian elections are known to be a joke and in one of them there was so many fraudulent votes for Putin that the sum of votes shown on TV was over 100%.

I'm fairly certain that if they invade Ukraine, the UN, NATO and the EU will issue formal letters to Putin, maybe even call him, then do some reconnaissance flights, drop some aid packages, accept refugees and that's going to be it.

Putin is certainly a dictator, even if Russia has "elections".

Putin has taken his aggressive steps while there has been weak US presidents. It is no accident that Russia took steps to undermine US Presidents that would be willing to stand up to Putin, and took steps to elect weak US presidents (such as Obama and Biden).

coolcoinz

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Russia is doing what it wants. It took Crimea, made Belarus its puppet state, shot down a Malaysian passenger jet and blamed it on the Ukrainians, refused to give back Polish government plane that crashed in Smolensk, forced the US to cancel a deal with Poland that was supposed to place missile defense systems along its eastern border. Russian agents poisoned Sergei Skripal and his daughter, poisoned and then arrested Alexei Navalny. Putin and Lavrov often threaten other countries and lie in public. Russian elections are known to be a joke and in one of them there was so many fraudulent votes for Putin that the sum of votes shown on TV was over 100%.

I'm fairly certain that if they invade Ukraine, the UN, NATO and the EU will issue formal letters to Putin, maybe even call him, then do some reconnaissance flights, drop some aid packages, accept refugees and that's going to be it.

suchmoon

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Quote from: Cnut237 on January 24, 2022, 11:19:52 AM

I suspect that all Russia really wants is what they've always wanted... a warm water port. Anything else is just macho posturing. They want Ukraine because they want the Crimea. They want the Crimea because they want Sevastapol. But give it a few more years of global warming, and they should have plenty of warm water ports.

They've had Crimea for 8 years, and everyone (except Ukraine) seems to have shrugged it off, so why draw attention to it now? Unless you're saying this latest escalation is intended to force the West to compromise and recognize the occupation.

LTU_btc

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Slava Ukraini!

I'm not very surprised that there is no thread about it. I got impression that in this board things happening outside US don't get much attention.
I don't know how likely is Russia invasion in Ukraine. I still want to believe that it won't happen. Invading whole Ukraine isn't same as invading pro-Russian regions like Crimea or Donbass. I doubt that they will reach Kyiv. It's more likely that they will try to take another part of eastern Ukraine, like Kharkiv where part of pro-Russian people isn't small.

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on January 24, 2022, 01:41:38 PM

Germany seems to be another hindrance to defending Ukraine. They are willing to be subjected to economic blackmail via the Nordstream 2 pipeline, and are preventing military equipment from being sent via Germany to Ukraine.

And I'm not suprised about their actions at all. They already blocked Estonia from sending weapons to Ukraine. Offcourse, later they will impose "strict sanctions" and they will be deeply concenerned, but as we saw so many times already, sanctions don't work.

PrimeNumber7

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Quote from: ?? on ??

American politicians across the political aisle are calling for war if Russia tries to invade Ukraine. Our biggest problem is that we have a corrupt, incompetent president who has been wrong on every foreign policy issue over the past 40 years.

Germany seems to be another hindrance to defending Ukraine. They are willing to be subjected to economic blackmail via the Nordstream 2 pipeline, and are preventing military equipment from being sent via Germany to Ukraine.

Cnut237

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I suspect that all Russia really wants is what they've always wanted... a warm water port. Anything else is just macho posturing. They want Ukraine because they want the Crimea. They want the Crimea because they want Sevastapol. But give it a few more years of global warming, and they should have plenty of warm water ports.

PrimeNumber7

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I am surprised there haven't been any threads opened about this yet.

In recent months, Russia has massed hundreds of thousands of troops and other military equipment on the Russia-Ukraine border. It is well known that Russia wants Ukraine to be part of its county, however Russian dictator, President Putin, has claimed that the troop mass is part of a training exercise.

The US and NATO allies are sending military equipment to Ukraine to help repeal an attack, and there is some talk about possibly sending troops to the region.

Update 2/18/22:
It appears there may have been some kind of false flag operation in Dumbas, Ukraine, an area controlled by a separatist group, today, possibly involving an alleged bombing of the car belonging to the leader of the separatist group. It is possible this is part of some kind of false flag operation to create a pretext for an invasion.

President Biden today said he believes Putin has made the decision to invade and will start an invasion in the coming days.

Update 2/21/22:
It appears an invasion has begun

Update 2/23/22:
It appears there are some kind of bombings in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine

Topic: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] - page 380. (Read 79424 times)