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Topic: Russian roadmap to Solar System colonisation. Moon is the first step. - page 2. (Read 6175 times)

hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
Yeah, Mir sure lasted a long time. But ask Jerry M. Linenger, an astronaut who served on Mir, and he would probably tell you about the time there was a fire on board. The place was full of trash because the Russians basically weren't providing garbage hauling service. I don't think too many people cried when it finally came down.
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 501
too bad the article is in Russian so I'll just make my assumption here, I think that this is a study and draft plan like you can find at any big space agency. I think Russia is on a good road when it comes to space program their space agency budget is increasing dramatically every year, as well as the chinese program, so we are bound to see some interesting stuff happening in the next decade or so
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1014
Mir was actually a brilliant station - far ahead of its time (and NASA acknowledges it http://history.nasa.gov/SP-4225/mir/mir.htm ), and based on Saljut stations research.
Space race. The Moon was there as a target, but at the same time Soviet Union was very heavily investing into rover technology - ahead of US, with the sights set on Martian exploration. That was the initial objective. SU accepted the Lunar challenge after the Apollo program was announced, diverting engineering resources from the Martian program. The result was that neither program got gull attention and both dwindled.

And more interesting reading here:
http://www.russianspaceweb.com/spacecraft_manned_salyut.html
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
These are the guys who lost the race to the Moon and then denied that they were ever involved in the Space Race. These are the guys who want to "recycle" their part of the International Space Station into their own orbital station so they can turn it into the same kind of junkyard that Mir turned into. Actually, colonizing the Moon could be done if you wanted to reach back into the NASA files for the Apollo technology, modernize it, and basically do what they wanted to do with Apollo Applications with an eye towards colonization. Does anybody with a few billion dollars to spare want to fill out a Freedom of Information Act request?
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1014
Hmm... Freeing resources?

Permanently manned ISS could end in 2020
http://rt.com/news/161632-iss-rogozin-effective-output/

Quote
Man in orbit might become history after 2020, as Russia sees no need to keep the ISS operating, announced Vice Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. Manned flights make little profit for Russia’s space agency, which might focus on other projects.

Russia’s Roskosmos space corporation gets little commercial payback from the International Space Station despite spending up to 30 percent of its annual budget on the project, said Rogozin, who is also responsible for the defence industry.

“Our profit is flat low… so we see no business interest in it [going on with the ISS]. Would there be other commercial proposals [we’d consider them],” Rogozin said.

Also, there is an interesting sideline in the article:

Quote
If there is no reaction from the US by May 31, the GPS stations will suspend operation for the next three months. If that does not help either, the operation of GSM stations in Russia will cease to exist by August 31, Rogozin promised, adding that this will not interfere with ordinary users of the system in Russia, because the information collected by these stations is being used primarily by the US military and national security agencies.

“These [GSM] stations are situated primarily alongside the Northern Sea Route and it is a big question why they were deployed on our territory in the mid-1990s and for what purpose,” the Deputy PM said, stressing that once the stations are gone, “the American military would feel the difference, whereas Russian GSM users would not.”
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1003
As soon as commercial space companies pick up steam the US should easily surpass Russia in terms of space technology. Frankly I think we are still ahead but it won't even be close. American private corporations will be far more effective than Russian government bodies that are rife with corruption and quality control issues (Those last two items are not my opinions, those are facts. Russia has a serious problem with corruption in military technology and development and they struggle with quality issues.)

Now, American government-funded programs do suffer from the same issues but American corporations suffer less than Russian ones do in that respect. Russian corps are far more interwoven with the government than their American counterparts are.

Right now commercial space companies face the same problem as almost all companies - global economy is slowing down, credit is drying up and the whole debt wall is in danger of eventually collapsing.
That means things will not pick up steam - they'll rather grind to a complete halt instead, unless they find a way to become profitable.

Money is hard to come by these days and it will only get harder in the forseeable future. The US lost the technology race about 1-2 decades ago in many respects with only isolated lighttower projects that still stand out (as a direct result of the ill-fated US policy priorities). Today, the US is doomed as a comsumer nation either of eastern/european technology (hightech) or going the cheap route with sub-par equipment. Some domestic products are availble but those either carry an extreme price tag or lack the technology (direct result of vastly insufficient funding during the last decades).
These handicaps could be countered but that would need lots of money and even more time... and that's something money can't buy in unlimited amounts.

Oh, and btw. the US military industrial complex with its strong government collusion is about the most corrupt entity besides its even larger energy and financial complex. All of them are struggling with severe quality issues (albeit with the military still standing the most effective to this date, except their quality equipment is extremely expensive and nearly impossible to operate & maintain financially over the next decade). But again, that's a government policy issue. And that policy is of a very classic and earthly nature, in a mentally sick kind of way.

When it comes to big bucks, only the US government supported companies would still have the ability for large-scale operations in space (industrial sized) within the United States - however, US government doesn't care about space for as long as it isn't a) extremely lucrative or of b) strategic military benefit in order to accept the financial risks of entering large projects.
In short : if it can't deliver a strategic resource or effectively bomb other nations - they won't invest a single penny in it outside some symbolic PR stunts.

SpaceX is profitable right now without any reuse of rocket parts.  Most people think SpaceX is on the verge of being able to reuse the first stage of their rocket which will cut the cost of flight down (for them) nearly 50%.  9 out of 10 rocket engines are in the first stage.

As SpaceX increases its launch rate and gets re-use going it will have the highest profit in the rocket industry bar none.  SpaceX will also have the highest operational payload to orbit with the Falcon Heavy which is not much more then a ganged version of a rocket they are already flying.  This is possible because they have mastered LOW COST liquid propulsion and have gone away from lower tech solid rockets. 
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
Sentinel
As soon as commercial space companies pick up steam the US should easily surpass Russia in terms of space technology. Frankly I think we are still ahead but it won't even be close. American private corporations will be far more effective than Russian government bodies that are rife with corruption and quality control issues (Those last two items are not my opinions, those are facts. Russia has a serious problem with corruption in military technology and development and they struggle with quality issues.)

Now, American government-funded programs do suffer from the same issues but American corporations suffer less than Russian ones do in that respect. Russian corps are far more interwoven with the government than their American counterparts are.

Right now commercial space companies face the same problem as almost all companies - global economy is slowing down, credit is drying up and the whole debt wall is in danger of eventually collapsing.
That means things will not pick up steam - they'll rather grind to a complete halt instead, unless they find a way to become profitable.

Money is hard to come by these days and it will only get harder in the forseeable future. The US lost the technology race about 1-2 decades ago in many respects with only isolated lighttower projects that still stand out (as a direct result of the ill-fated US policy priorities). Today, the US is doomed as a comsumer nation either of eastern/european technology (hightech) or going the cheap route with sub-par equipment. Some domestic products are availble but those either carry an extreme price tag or lack the technology (direct result of vastly insufficient funding during the last decades).
These handicaps could be countered but that would need lots of money and even more time... and that's something money can't buy in unlimited amounts.

Oh, and btw. the US military industrial complex with its strong government collusion is about the most corrupt entity besides its even larger energy and financial complex. All of them are struggling with severe quality issues (albeit with the military still standing the most effective to this date, except their quality equipment is extremely expensive and nearly impossible to operate & maintain financially over the next decade). But again, that's a government policy issue. And that policy is of a very classic and earthly nature, in a mentally sick kind of way.

When it comes to big bucks, only the US government supported companies would still have the ability for large-scale operations in space (industrial sized) within the United States - however, US government doesn't care about space for as long as it isn't a) extremely lucrative or of b) strategic military benefit in order to accept the financial risks of entering large projects.
In short : if it can't deliver a strategic resource or effectively bomb other nations - they won't invest a single penny in it outside some symbolic PR stunts.
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1014
As soon as commercial space companies pick up steam the US should easily surpass Russia in terms of space technology. Frankly I think we are still ahead but it won't even be close. American private corporations will be far more effective than Russian government bodies that are rife with corruption and quality control issues (Those last two items are not my opinions, those are facts. Russia has a serious problem with corruption in military technology and development and they struggle with quality issues.)

Now, American government-funded programs do suffer from the same issues but American corporations suffer less than Russian ones do in that respect. Russian corps are far more interwoven with the government than their American counterparts are.

dogechode, I agree with your entire post, save for the last sentence. Smiley You could say that American corps are the government acting through a series of middlemen.


full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 100
As soon as commercial space companies pick up steam the US should easily surpass Russia in terms of space technology. Frankly I think we are still ahead but it won't even be close. American private corporations will be far more effective than Russian government bodies that are rife with corruption and quality control issues (Those last two items are not my opinions, those are facts. Russia has a serious problem with corruption in military technology and development and they struggle with quality issues.)

Now, American government-funded programs do suffer from the same issues but American corporations suffer less than Russian ones do in that respect. Russian corps are far more interwoven with the government than their American counterparts are.
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 501
in defi we trust
Russians should repair roads first Cheesy

Have you ever been to Russia? The Russian roads are in a much better state, compared to those in your home state (Alabama).

Here is a pic from Alabama:



You mean like this one?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3-r22od-zI

legendary
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1386
...
US companies can build the RD-180 and the companies that use it have a two year supply already.  The problem is that it COSTS MORE to make it locally then the Russians charge for it.  It is a cost issue only.  Russia has no magic technology in the RD-180 that the west does not understand. 

The Atlas V is a political rocket.  SpaceX can replace it for less money but is blocked mostly for political reasons.   The biggest weakness in the US space program is politics not technology or know how.

This is correct.  Building a rocket motor is simply advanced machine shop work.  We have those.  And the RD-180 is not anywhere near some really advanced motor.  The SpaceX motors have significant advantages and are far cheaper.  But that is likely because SpaceX motors are not built in a government program.

RD-180 motors are built in a government program (Russian) and are cheaper because of lower labor costs and lower taxes.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1003
How Russia could strangle the US space program

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/united-states/140324/nasa-russia-sanctions-rocket-rd-180-atlas-v

Quote
The US relies heavily on Russia to furnish the engines that power rockets that deliver both military and civil payloads into space. This includes GPS systems in cars and cellphones, and even systems that allow ATMs to function. Weather satellites are launched into space via Russian-powered rockets, and military systems such as early missile detection also depend on our friends in Moscow. In addition, since NASA scrapped the space shuttle program in 2011, the US has to rely on Russian Soyuz capsules to get its astronauts to the space station and to bring them back home.

Quote
One of the things Americans may dislike very much indeed is a possible ban on the sale of RD-180 engines to the US under a contract with Russian manufacturer NPO Energomash. The RD-180 powers the Atlas V rocket, the main launch vehicle used to get US military and civil payloads into space.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2602291/We-coming-Moon-FOREVER-Russia-sets-plans-conquer-colonise-space-including-permanent-manned-moon-base.html

Quote
The West fears Russia is poised to invade Ukraine, but it seems the Kremlin has a bigger conquest in its sights - the Moon. Moscow today set out plans to conquer and colonise space, including a permanent manned moon base. Deputy premier Dmitry Rogozin said: 'We are coming to the moon forever.'

US companies can build the RD-180 and the companies that use it have a two year supply already.  The problem is that it COSTS MORE to make it locally then the Russians charge for it.  It is a cost issue only.  Russia has no magic technology in the RD-180 that the west does not understand. 

The Atlas V is a political rocket.  SpaceX can replace it for less money but is blocked mostly for political reasons.   The biggest weakness in the US space program is politics not technology or know how.


legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1003
Well, those "buckets on wheels" are still serving humanity. Scientists managed to locate them and use their reflectors to triangulate and measure precise distance shifts between Moon and Earth.

Why not use the reflectors put out there on purpose by Apollo?  Oh yea, that is what they used to measure the distance!
legendary
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1386
Something new cropped up on this topic!

Russia will begin Moon colonization in 2030 - draft space program
http://rt.com/news/157800-russia-moon-colonization-plan/

Quote
“We are going to the Moon forever,” the Russian Deputy PM said in April, and it was not just empty words. It appears Russia does plan to colonize the Moon by 2030 and the first stage of the ambitious project may start as soon as two years from now.

Quote
“Moon is a space object of the future reclamation by Earth civilization, and in XXI century there might be a geopolitical competition for lunar natural resources,” the authors of the draft project state in the opening line.

What this is basically all about is deposits of water and possibly other volatiles deep in craters at the Lunar N and S Pole.  Think in terms of places that are colder than any other measured location in the Solar System, and which have never seen sunlight - direct or reflected!

A national entity could attempt to claim these deposits.  We don't know how extensive they are, so someone going and making three or four claims could possibly grab the largest part of the deposits.  Maybe.

What water means is rocket fuel - the ability to create H2 and O2.  It also means help in supporting humans but mainly it's the fuel.  Stepping stone to Mars sound good but isn't really logical, easier to go direct.  Delta V to Mars is actually less than to the Moon, because for the Moon you need rocket braking to land.
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1014
Something new cropped up on this topic!

Russia will begin Moon colonization in 2030 - draft space program
http://rt.com/news/157800-russia-moon-colonization-plan/

Quote
“We are going to the Moon forever,” the Russian Deputy PM said in April, and it was not just empty words. It appears Russia does plan to colonize the Moon by 2030 and the first stage of the ambitious project may start as soon as two years from now.

Quote
“Moon is a space object of the future reclamation by Earth civilization, and in XXI century there might be a geopolitical competition for lunar natural resources,” the authors of the draft project state in the opening line.
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
Russians should repair roads first Cheesy

No need they have powerful trucks and brave drivers. They can even cross a flooded river without using a bridge.
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 1217
Russians should repair roads first Cheesy

Have you ever been to Russia? The Russian roads are in a much better state, compared to those in your home state (Alabama).

Here is a pic from Alabama:

newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
Russians should repair roads first Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1386
I don't think that there is an immediate threat to human existence. There are a large number of scarcely populated nations around the world, such as Russia and Brazil. Even China can sustain a lot more people than it is having right now. Also, the world population will stabilize sometime in 2050, and will start declining after that.

There are many scarcely populated ares in Russian and China where people don't want to live. Yes those countries are huge but much of their land is tundra, desert, etc and not desirable.

I don't buy that the population is going to start declining any time soon. Life expectancy keeps going up and the classes that have more children per family seem to be growing faster than the classes that have 0-2 children per family. Medicine is advancing at an alarming rate and we are already having problems paying for medical care because people just aren't dying like they used to.

Creating a human presence off Earth does not necessarily mean and should not necessarily mean Mars, read up on O'Neil colonies.  

Creating a human presence off Earth means having ... somewhere ... serious building capabilities, like the ability to build spaceships, motors and tanks.

That is a valid point though I am not sure if I have heard of O'Neil colonies. Can you post a link or two and/or a basic explanation of O'Neil colonies?

yeah it is basically a self sustaining artificial world built and placed at the L4 or L5 lagrange points in lunar orbit.  

http://www.nss.org/settlement/space/oneillcylinder.htm

The basic method here is to use a lunar railgun to lob materials to the L4 or L5 point.  These are unique locations in the Earth Moon system which are truly gravity neutral, so anything there, stays there forever.  A projectile shot off the Moon at the right velocity will reach the L4 point, continually losing velocity due to the lunar gravity, and will reach zero velocity at the L4 point.  Thus, a very large amount of building material could be accumulated there.  Think Legos.

That's not the whole solution, though.  O2, N2, C2, H2 and other elements which are the stuff of life, but which are extremely scarce on the Moon, would need to be also accumulated.   These are believed to be at the lunar poles in some few areas and to be possibly recoverable.

Think along the lines of a hundred year project.  A 100kg projectile shot each hour for ten years is 8,640 tons.

By contrast the total mass of equipment from Earth on the Moon after what, 50 some years? 

Between 20 and 30 tons.
full member
Activity: 140
Merit: 100
but couldn't it pay itself out?

Even if they are mining the most expensive metal on earth, the trip would be uneconomical (it will cost around $100 billion, equivalent to some 5,000 tonnes of gold). 

Uneconomical at first but once we started mining asteroids, we will be using those asteroids to build spacecrafts, robots, machines, orbiting cities, space elevator and for fuels.That would cut the cost drastically to very minimum. Most of that $100 billion cost is for bringing that needed parts to orbit.
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