18 Oct - 19 OctTotal return: 323%
Coins: APEX, URO
Through my analysis I aim to underscore the distinction between gambling and betting or trading with an edge. Participants in Crypto may well be gambling. If you don’t have a method (an edge), then trading is every bit as much as a gamble as betting in the casinos. But with a method, trading becomes a business rather than gambling. Fortunately for us Crypto traders, whereas the casinos can ban players because they become too proficient, this market has no way of eliminating the skilful traders. Therefore if you have an edge that provides you with the most unfair advantage over other traders, no exchange can come to you and say, “We’ve noticed that you’re making too much money. You can’t trade here anymore.”
APEX
Regular readers are well aware of how important it is to put orders 40 – 50% (or more, depending on the environment) below high volume markets.
This is just easy money through and through. As I’ve mentioned a dozen times, this strategy was my bread and butter when I first started trading altcoins. This is the closest you will get to risk free trading in this market , and it requires no particular skills – other than understanding that what goes up must come down, and then back up again.
By using this strategy, you are taking advantage of the correction that occurs after every single decline in price.
It happens all the time.
If you were to browse the markets, you will see that every high volume coin that dips – often produces a very profitable correction, providing the easiest profit that you will ever make trading cryptos - besides knowing which coins are going to move days before the move actually occurs.
APEX has been a recurring Pumpers Pick for some weeks now, and has continued to perform over a sustained period of time. This is a sign of strength and shows that market sentiment towards this coin is positive.
After seeing alot of volatile price action, and noticing an astoundingly wide spread (for a coin with high volume) – AND noticing that the sell orders were arranged in such a way that could produce a 300%+ gain with only the slightest injection of BTC.
This was a no brainer.
Brilliant technicals + sound fundamentals = home run. Start paying attention to probabilities and realise that trading isn’t a game of being right or wrong. Once you start to key into probabilities instead of possibilities you will have the means to measure the odds of a trade. You will naturally begin to pay attention to the things that matter – volume, sell resistance and market momentum.
Before getting into a trade, always ask yourself. Based on what I can see, what is most likely to happen, a rally or a decline in price? If you find yourself not being able to adequately answer this question, it’s because you don’t have an edge or a strategy that works.
Tip:
Novice traders tend to lose because they overtrade, which means that they have to be right a lot just to cover trading fees. You need to have patience; if you have a good trade on, you have to be able to stay with it. Second, you need courage to go into the market, and courage comes from adequate capitalisation. The trick is not being a contrarian, but being a contrarian at the right time. The successful contrarian needs to be able to filter out the true opportunities. Personally, my filters are a combination of a keen sense of fundamentals and market timing. To me, the Crypto market is a giant treasure hunt. Somewhere in the rubble, there is a big winner – every week, and I am always engaged in finding that next coin with all the characteristics that are going to make it a big move. You should be willing to buy or sell anything. So many people say “I could never buy that kind of coin”. You should be flexible and alert to trading based on probabilities, not marketing or hysteria. Your desire to win must be greater than your desire to be right, only then will these opportunities becoming glaringly obvious to you.URO
Another important factor that I frequently stress is that Trading Volume is the MOST important indicator for the novice trader. They want to see a coin “on the first page of Bittrex” before they buy.
Going further, nearly 90% of the crypto community has this same view. So the most eyes are on the first page of Bittrex.
Now, why is that important?
Well... Skilful traders, are only skilled because they make the majority of their money from the mistakes of novice traders. In fact, each time a novice buys into a coin – they are letting a skilled trader out of that coin with profit. Think about that for a second.
I look at dumping sprees as a wonderful thing – provided I’m not in the coin at the time.
Firstly, the mere fact that you have the ability to dump out – indicates that there is considerable interest in that coin, just at a lower price point. Second, when people dump out of a coin they are essentially inflating the trading volume – making the coin look like a safe bet to novice traders who have their eye on that Bittrex front page..
Additionally, when people contribute to dumping action, they assist in creating a huge (and profitable) spread between the bid and ask.
Question...
what normally happens when unskilled traders have low bids placed whilst a dumping spree is erupting? .........They begin to pull their orders, leaving behind only a few key players who understand how markets work.
So, in the end, it may only be a slim handful of people who get brought into the market via negative price action.
This has significant implications because, these new participants are now given a window where they have absolute control of where the price goes next – based on how they arrange their sell orders.
When a coin dips, new sell orders have to be placed from that price range (to close the spread) – all the way to the pre-dump price. But because only a few (skilled) traders will allow themselves to be dumped on, these skilled players are literally given their pick of where to place their sell orders for maximum profit - which leads to profitable gaps between price ranges – which leads to very easy returns.
Tip:
Don’t be arrogant. During these winning times it is easy to lose discipline. I frequently stress to members ; when you get arrogant, you forsake risk control. The best traders are the most humble. Don’t trade until an opportunity presents itself. Knowing when to stay out of the market is just as important as knowing when to be in. Your strategy has to be flexible enough to change when the environment changes. The mistake most people make is they keep the same strategy all the time. They say “damn, the market didn’t behave the way I thought it would.” Why should it? Life and the Crypto markets just don’t work that way. You need an edge.SIDENOTE: Look at each market (coin) as a venue - a venue that has a max capacity. In our case the venues capacity, instead of human beings, can only be filled with BTC (trading volume). So, If a coin has already attracted a tremendous amount of volume, volume that is magnitudes above what the logical part of your brain would deem average levels – then that particular market is filled (or close to being filled) to its maximum capacity. Thus the only thing left to happen is for the BTC to come back out of that market – causing the value to plummet. Note: BTC is a buy right now. Pay attention to the price and execute your buys at the low points. Oct - Dec will be very interesting.
Twtter: @Pumper_Ryan follow for daily picks, and updates.
