Ryans' log - page 4. | Bitcointalksearch.org

CoinBurner

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 26, 2014, 10:53:11 PM

There are a couple of options for the all-time count. One that we have finished a full five wave cycle in which case the next rise would be building on the [ I ] of [[III]]. The other (and imo, more likely) scenario is that 1163 was the top of (III) of [III] and we are about to complete [III] with the next big rally to new ATH's.

This is the more likely count in my opinion
http://i.imgur.com/Un9xN3G.png

wow so if this plays out ...

http://i.imgur.com/pbg1EEw.png

ehmmm sorry I couldn't resist Grin

serious question now: some weeks ago I stumbled upon a BTC long-term wave count from http://www.elliottwave.com/ in which they labelled the december high as a [V], predicting a massive retracement to early 2013 levels. By the way, during the July-August 2013 rise the same guys were swearing that it was a B correction, and soon bitcoin would have fallen in a terrible C wave... we all know how it ended!!
so question is: could the whole Gox affair, and in particular the infamous willy bot (which seems to have started its operation around that time), have played some major role in heavily distorting market dynamics ? Have you (Ryan or any other EW master) been surprised back then by the price evolution e.g. by some evident EW rule (or at least guideline) violation which in hindsight could have been attributed to this massive market manipulation??

RyNinDaCleM

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: Gimmelfarb on September 27, 2014, 03:49:43 AM

i saw someone post something like this in the Tradingview chat room. i am not taking it seriously, but wondering if this is in any way plausible from an EW perspective of the larger cycle. Grin

The Chinese exchanges are the only place it's valid. It could lead to a failed C for the western exchanges, in which case, it is plausible. I do not think this is the case though, because the E wave makes a great 1-2-3 of an impulse but the C (in the case of an ABC to create the E) is grossly disproportionate to the A. But, this is Bitcoin...

RyNinDaCleM

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Quote from: Raystonn on September 27, 2014, 12:47:14 AM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 26, 2014, 10:53:11 PM

Quote from: Raystonn on September 26, 2014, 10:09:43 PM

We are currently in (C). It looks close to ending, perhaps near 30x. We should then resume our bull market with (I), right? Where are we in terms of SuperCycles?

Thanks

There are a couple of options for the all-time count. One that we have finished a full five wave cycle in which case the next rise would be building on the [ I ] of [[III]]. The other (and imo, more likely) scenario is that 1163 was the top of (III) of [III] and we are about to complete [III] with the next big rally to new ATH's.

This is the more likely count in my opinion

Interesting. This chart would imply a [I] that is very much larger than the [III], no? The earliest price I see for the start of [I] would be 0.04951. From that to 31.91 is massively larger than the labeled [III], which is supposed to be the largest. How do we deal with this discrepancy?

EW is price based, so the rise in 2011, while astronomical on a percentage basis, is not nearly as big on a Dollar basis. Also, 3 cannot be the shortest wave, but it does not have to be the largest wave either. In most bubbles during Bitcoins' short history, the 5th wave is by far the largest wave however, for intraday waves it is not the same story.

Gimmelfarb

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i saw someone post something like this in the Tradingview chat room. i am not taking it seriously, but wondering if this is in any way plausible from an EW perspective of the larger cycle. Grin

Raystonn

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Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 26, 2014, 10:53:11 PM

Quote from: Raystonn on September 26, 2014, 10:09:43 PM

We are currently in (C). It looks close to ending, perhaps near 30x. We should then resume our bull market with (I), right? Where are we in terms of SuperCycles?

Thanks

There are a couple of options for the all-time count. One that we have finished a full five wave cycle in which case the next rise would be building on the [ I ] of [[III]]. The other (and imo, more likely) scenario is that 1163 was the top of (III) of [III] and we are about to complete [III] with the next big rally to new ATH's.

This is the more likely count in my opinion

Interesting. This chart would imply a [I] that is very much larger than the [III], no? The earliest price I see for the start of [I] would be 0.04951. From that to 31.91 is massively larger than the labeled [III], which is supposed to be the largest. How do we deal with this discrepancy?

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: canibalbranco on September 26, 2014, 11:53:15 PM

Quote

3) The candles actually seem to distract me from the points. I wonder if it would make sense for me, anyway, to use a line chart.

Edit...the only thing I can think of as a starting point is to try to find the 3's.

Quote

The problem with a line chart is that it's usually based on an average. OHLC avg, HLC, VWAP, etc... So it's doesn't tell the whole story and it won't show overlaps that invalidate a count either. Candlesticks and OHLC bars are best suited for this job.

Furthermore, the shape of a candlestick also brings relevant market information. Cheesy

You are correct however, this has nothing to do with EW. There is a wealth of info in candles, but the only thing we use in EW is the high and low of the candle.

canibalbranco

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Quote

3) The candles actually seem to distract me from the points. I wonder if it would make sense for me, anyway, to use a line chart.

Edit...the only thing I can think of as a starting point is to try to find the 3's.

Quote

The problem with a line chart is that it's usually based on an average. OHLC avg, HLC, VWAP, etc... So it's doesn't tell the whole story and it won't show overlaps that invalidate a count either. Candlesticks and OHLC bars are best suited for this job.

Furthermore, the shape of a candlestick also brings relevant market information. Cheesy

http://d.stockcharts.com/school/data/media/chart_school/overview/technical_analysis16e.png

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: Gimmelfarb on September 26, 2014, 10:55:26 PM

thanks for this thread, RyNinDaCleM. i had always thought Eliott Wave was some sort of voodoo nonsense. but i'm learning a lot. i've been paper trading based on EW and EWO for the past few weeks (can't risk my real funds on something i am still learning and have not backtested much), but it's going really well!

No problem! I'm glad you find it of use

Gimmelfarb

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Activity: 658

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thanks for this thread, RyNinDaCleM. i had always thought Eliott Wave was some sort of voodoo nonsense. but i'm learning a lot. i've been paper trading based on EW and EWO for the past few weeks (can't risk my real funds on something i am still learning and have not backtested much), but it's going really well!

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: Raystonn on September 26, 2014, 10:09:43 PM

We are currently in (C). It looks close to ending, perhaps near 30x. We should then resume our bull market with (I), right? Where are we in terms of SuperCycles?

Thanks

There are a couple of options for the all-time count. One that we have finished a full five wave cycle in which case the next rise would be building on the [ I ] of [[III]]. The other (and imo, more likely) scenario is that 1163 was the top of (III) of [III] and we are about to complete [III] with the next big rally to new ATH's.

This is the more likely count in my opinion

Raystonn

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

We are currently in (C). It looks close to ending, perhaps near 30x. We should then resume our bull market with (I), right? Where are we in terms of SuperCycles?

Thanks

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: Schickeria on September 26, 2014, 08:18:58 PM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 01, 2014, 10:27:24 PM

Hey Ryn! How about about adding your legends to the first page? I already downloaded it, but maybe it would help others, too. Wink

I will do it right now!

However, this is what I use

Schickeria

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 01, 2014, 10:27:24 PM

Hey Ryn! How about about adding your legends to the first page? I already downloaded it, but maybe it would help others, too. Wink

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: Raystonn on September 26, 2014, 08:03:19 PM

Thanks. Where did "I" begin?

From the (B) top

Raystonn

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Thanks. Where did "I" begin?

RyNinDaCleM

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Quote from: Raystonn on September 26, 2014, 07:35:48 PM

Do you have a chart showing just I, II, III, IV, and V?

Something like this. It may vary but that is the gist.

Raystonn

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Activity: 364

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Do you have a chart showing just I, II, III, IV, and V?

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: Raystonn on September 26, 2014, 06:41:11 PM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 26, 2014, 06:03:01 PM

Today we have divergence in the hourly chart. This completes the 1 of (5) of III. Fibo says we see a pullback around the $430 range (61.8% retrace of wave-(1) ) I had to reuse some higher degree labels for this chart. These are only representative of the count, so I will switch back and forth but the true count remains the same. We are in a "2 of some degree" is all that's important right now.

Happy trading!

Later I will explain that second sentence Wink

How high do you expect IV to take us once (5) is complete?

It can be as high as $475, but it really depends on where we go next

Raystonn

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 26, 2014, 06:03:01 PM

Today we have divergence in the hourly chart. This completes the 1 of (5) of III. Fibo says we see a pullback around the $430 range (61.8% retrace of wave-(1) ) I had to reuse some higher degree labels for this chart. These are only representative of the count, so I will switch back and forth but the true count remains the same. We are in a "2 of some degree" is all that's important right now.

Happy trading!

Later I will explain that second sentence Wink

How high do you expect IV to take us once (5) is complete?

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: h3speros on September 26, 2014, 06:26:38 PM

i have hard time believing that we will rise to 430 before fall, there's some resistance at 415 (can be fake, but i doubt it) and that hidden bearish divergence on hourly...

An alternate count would be that the drop today was the i of an extended 5th. If that is the case, the bullish divergence will be quickly neutralized and we'll be off to the races. This would also fall inline with the lower target from yesterday around $382, but may make it a bit lower.

Edit, Also, a wave-2 can go anywhere except higher than the start of wave-1, so it can just end up with a weak retracement.

Topic: Ryans' log - page 4. (Read 50672 times)