Topic: Ryans' log - page 5. (Read 50750 times)

i have hard time believing that we will rise to 430 before fall, there's some resistance at 415 (can be fake, but i doubt it) and that hidden bearish divergence on hourly...

Today we have divergence in the hourly chart. This completes the 1 of (5) of III. Fibo says we see a pullback around the $430 range (61.8% retrace of wave-(1) ) I had to reuse some higher degree labels for this chart. These are only representative of the count, so I will switch back and forth but the true count remains the same. We are in a "2 of some degree" is all that's important right now.


Happy trading!

Later I will explain that second sentence

imo you people can practice EW TA on this 2020 gold contract https://www.tradingview.com/x/yFoPtRHs/

Great answers!  Thanks!  Will get to work on that tonight!

The reason I use different time frames is to confirm that all sub-waves indeed have all of their respective sub-waves. A Daily chart can give you the larger count (currently the largest degree for Bitcoin, but will eventually require weekly to show the all-time count), then a 4hr chart gives you access to the sub-waves of the major Daily count. Remember, some daily bars don't quite pick up on the intraday movements, so a lower time frame is necessary. The 1 hr gives a glimps of the sub-waves to the sub-waves from the 4hr chart, and so on. Right now I'm on the 10, 30 and hourly charts because the minute waves we are in require that kind of resolution to count them. The hourly still holds most of the important divergences. Divergences on a 10 minute chart are not really tradeable unless you really want to and are willing to babysit the position. A pull back on a 10 minute count is usually only 1 or 2%, so small.



The very best thing to do is to start at a price extreme. The ATH or the ATL, or in the case of Bitcoin, the 2011 wave-[II] low at $1.994... Start counting the biggest, most noticeable waves first. Then you can go to a lower time frame and confirm that each impulse you just counted has the 5 waves of an impulse within it. If that checks out, go to a lower time frame yet, and check for your 5 valid waves in each of those.


The problem with a line chart is that it's usually based on an average. OHLC avg, HLC, VWAP, etc... So it's doesn't tell the whole story and it won't show overlaps that invalidate a count either. Candlesticks and OHLC bars are best suited for this job.

Yeah, the picture shows regular divergence on lower timescales. Hidden bullish is in the linked post:

According to this: http://www.babypips.com/school/high-school/trading-divergences/hidden-divergence.html hidden bullish divergence would mean lower high price and higher high indicator. In your picture it is the other way around.

I have noticed that hidden divergences are often ignored if either the current trend is too strong and/or there are regular divergences that override it, even on lower timescales.

For example before the September August drop there was hidden bullish divergence (even 2 in a row) on daily as pointed out by oda.krell, but seemingly, market instead chose to react to the much smaller regular bearish divergence on <=1h candles.



Although this may have been compounded by some other technical signal I missed, since I'm a noob :-)

EDIT: Showed wrong divergence/drop, Friday ))

idk how i missed that =D

This one is easy to answer from my phone...
A large part of that volume was in one market sell into one giant bid. That is the candle that started the capitulation low of $1.994 and marked the end of the correction. and the end of the bear market. "End of bear market" is a difficult thing to determine because the wave-1 off the bottom is still believed by many to be part of the bear market (this also works the same way with bull markets as seen January through April). Either way, the 2011 bear market counts out in full valid waves from the top so it's not as if someone wanted to force a broken EW count.

notme made a good point to add that much of that volume was support (accumulation).

Zoom in, much of the volume on the 14th was support.



Since it is kind of hard to see the volume on the big red candle, here is the raw data, btc volume bolded:
2011-11-14 00:00:00   2.99573   2.99573   2.45   2.46082   48935.23   131623.81   2.69
2011-11-14 01:00:00   2.46082   2.74999   2.46082   2.55   41662.84   107080.98   2.57
2011-11-14 02:00:00   2.55185   2.7   2.499   2.60002   98127.51   250252.12   2.55
2011-11-14 03:00:00   2.6001   2.74   2.4   2.47223   62247.65   155135.56   2.49

So, for those 4 candles on the beginning of the 14th, we have 111,182.88 BTC on the two red candles and 139,790.35 BTC on the green candles.

Price didn't bottom until a few days later, on lower volume, but the 14th is when the sellers exhausted themselves.

RyNinDaCleM I also have a question, if you don't mind: in your opinion where did the bear market of 2011 end, mid October or mid November?



My problem is that the largest volume down was in mid November, but the appearance was of a flash crash, so it looked to me more
like a half-failed first sub-wave of wave 1 that lead the sellers to believe it was going to drop to 1$.

I will answer this in about an hour or so when I have a few minutes

hidden bearish divergence maybe forming on 1h at approx 410, but volume has not been strong so maybe this is not so important...

For what it's worth, I went here and accessed the ten free lessons:

http://www.elliottwave.com/club/EWI-basic-tutorial/default.aspx?code=dc&articleid=0

Pretty helpful.  I followed the lessons reasonably well, and it helped me understand a LOT better what Ryan is doing.  I still have to say there appears to be quite a bit of interpretation that Ryan is doing--and doing very well, and even explaining it to us really well.  

A couple more questions:

1)  I just went back and looked at your last couple of charts.  One was a 60 minute chart and one was a 10 minute.  Does the picture look markedly different in one day charts versus 60 minute charts versus 10 minute charts?

2)  The lessons I took last night give me a much better understanding and ability to follow what you are doing with this particular set of counts on BTC.  But when I started looking at XMR and BTM, I just got completely lost.  Any suggestions for how one might look at a virgin chart and start the process of decoding the waves?  One thing I haven't tried is using something like Sierra Charts that allows me to mark it up.  Seems like that might be pretty necessary.  

3)  The candles actually seem to distract me from the points.  I wonder if it would make sense for me, anyway, to use a line chart.  

Edit...the only thing I can think of as a starting point is to try to find the 3's.

since u ppl like to talk about EW education take a look here http://studyofcycles.com/  also buy the book 90€ well spent

As h3speros said, ABC's are the corrective moves... Well, the labeling for the corrective moves. The boxes were only to give highlights to the count and the sub-waves, so I had an easy way to refer to the different degrees of waves. The actual count is just normal EW.

if i have understood correctly, ABC means 3 waves and 12345 means 5 waves, these wave patterns comes by turns

EDIT. don't think what you lack, just try to concentrate on facts

EDIT2. "Elliott Wave Basics.pdf - DailyFX" is great for basics