Topic: Ryans' log - page 7. (Read 50750 times)

Certainly possible that other market participants follow EW charts or even this thread.  If Ryan had, as he said, many hundred BTC, even if he multiplied it several times, I don't suspect he's personally moving the market.

Man, I'm pretty skeptical of TA in general, especially in a market that is as thinly traded as BTC, but based on what I've seen in following this thread pretty closely for...I don't know how long...my ears and eyes are open to some possibilities that I wouldn't have considered before.

I've been a reasonably good investor over time, definitely NOT great.  I've been a pretty horrible trader.  I do best when I understand fundamentals and economics....much better than I do with understanding markets.  Frankly, in crypto, there just aren't the same indicators that one can get on publicly traded stocks, for example.  Can't use PE, PEG, price/book, price/revenue, etc.... can't understand market player consolidation and associated multiples related to that with crypto.  I did very well in financial services sector about ten years ago by loading up on companies that would eventually be acquired.

In the absence of those tools, and given what I've seen in this thread....  

I'm no whale compared to the money involved in Bitcoin. I also have over 50% of my total BTC in cold storage. I have worked hard to do what I have done in trading and this thread. So no need to go there... 

Truth be told, Bitcoin was my first financial vehicle. 2012 was my first intro to TA and EW. I have put countless hours into learning what I know, practicing what I've learned, and applying my knowledge.

On an aside... I called Silvers demise in June of last year. My plan is to buy physical at or around $15. I came to my targets using my own EW skills. Do I have the wealth of JPM to force Silver toward my target? Not even close

Does the market follow EW?  Or does the market follow his whale money, which follows his EW charts?  TA can be a self fulfilling prophecy based on how much money follows any particular TA.

loving such threads!

Wow...dude, you are so humble posting in this thread...I had no idea you were a semi-whale!  Glad to hear it, though.  You absolutely deserve that success you've had.

Thanks for the explanations about divergence. 

One other question about EW in general...what kind of volume would you think is necessary to get accurate readings?  I've got a couple of alts I'm following and I'm wondering if it would be worth trying to apply some EW analysis to charts for XMR and/or BTM.

Keep up the great work!

I had a private chat with some fellow bitcoiners who were asking about divergences and what causes them. I will make a post here to explain them and the cause/effect of what makes them so useful.

Bullish divergence
Bullish divergence happens when an indicator makes a higher low while price makes a lower low. This is caused by low volume market sells into thin depth bids. Many bids were already removed in search of lower entries. This happens in 5th waves because sellers are exhausted and buyers want better prices, naturally. Therefore, the price moves easier and with less force than the 3rd wave which then creates the divergence.

Hidden Bullish divergence
The hidden Bullish divergence is a bit different to Regular Bullish divergence in that it is more of an accumulation of the asset. Heavy volume trying (and failing) to move the price down. This makes lower lows on indicators combined with higher lows in price.

Bearish divergence
Bearish divergence is the exact opposite of Bullish divergence. Indicator makes lower highs while price makes higher highs. Just like regular Bullish divergence, this happens when the price moves easier than the indicator, usually due to low volume, high slippage market buying. This happens in 5th waves of Bullish trends and is caused by an exhaustion of buyers.

Hidden Bearish divergence
Hidden Bearish divergence, again, is different than regular Bearish divergence in that it is more of the distribution side. High volume market buying into massive resistance which halts progress in price but due to the high volume, makes higher highs in the indicator and lower highs in price


Divergences can go on for a few bars before they are really aknowledged by the market. For instance, there is divegence on the daily chart, and has been for a while. But if there is a 4th wave "Return to zero" on a lower time frame, then the Daily divergence will wait until the 5th wave is complete before it is truely locked in. This is why you see 2, 3 or even 5 spikes of larger divergences before the signal is actually correct. This is what I was talking about in one of my posts earlier in this thread when I said there is still time to neutralize the daily divergence before it is actually a strong enough signal to trade from.

Take this chart.

There is a pretty large divergence currently. But inside that box, there is no way to count 5 waves down without overlap. So this divergence is not "Locked in" until a valid wave is complete. A 5th wave can neutralize this divergence if it's strong enough. It can also make a second higher low in the EWO, but then a 5th wave would be complete, effectively locking in the divergence and making a strong trading signal. So this means the lower time frame sub-waves need to complete before the higher time frame divergences can be utilized effectively. If you only trade based on Weekly charts, you may sit for weeks waiting for the market to turn in your favor, missing out on profits (but it is lower risk).

oda.krell pointed me to a prime example posted by JustAnotherSheep of a Daily divergence that got wider and wider before it was the strong signal it eventually became. This is exactly what I am talking about here. The lower time frames had unfinished business that had to be completed before the Daily signal was ripe.

Courtesy of JustAnotherSheep;

Actually, this was pretty amusing to me.  
What I'll do is clean it up, but consolidate it all into one post.


Indeed I was here in 2011 and bought many hundreds of coins at $2.xx after selling my mining proceeds around $10. I have since multiplied my holdings many times using my knowledge of markets. Why am I still here? Well, Bitcoin is a special kind of animal. The volatility is second to none (when we get it) and I can do my trading at any time of day I desire since it's a 24/7 market, and it's fun for me. It's just something I enjoy! This thread is sort of my way to "give back" to those that drove the price so high making my life a little less stressful. I'm sure those who aren't writing this thread off as "TA, therefore can't possibly work" are profiting handsomely with their new found knowledge they are gathering, and will continue to as long as there are financial trading markets.



oda was correct in his assumption that it was a joke, which is why I said:


Also oda is correct that I do not only use EW for my trades. I have said it numerous times through this thread, and I stand by it.


More words to live by. If I worried about every person in this forum, I'd drive myself crazy.


This is good, and I will

That is seriously the funniest financial cartoon I have ever seen!

I'd just like to remind everyone here that EW is based entirely on technical analysis.  This works great in the absence of any strong fundamental change that disrupts the technical progression of price.  I will leave it as an exercise to the reader to determine if/when we hit such a disruption.

Thanks for the replies, Tzupy and RyNinDaCleM!  Let's hope that comes to $ 100,000 and we're all good! 

Haha I just posted that image which looks like what RyNinDaCleM posted...  
But I don't think that will happen.. I think the big guys won't let that happen... unless something really really bad happens to bitcoin  
Just like mtgox:


If they had not stopped the trading, it would have dropped further down  

I'll agree there with the exception that going below 250 doesn't matter. It will be bearish, yes, but the bullish long term will still be valid. My reply would be as long as Bitcoin doesn't die due to abandonment or protocol failure, it is all but guaranteed to make new all time highs eventually.

Since this question seems directed at me, I'll try to answer: if the bottom won't be below 250$, then IMO a return to the ATH and more
in the second half of 2015 is almost certain. But for me the most important is that bitcoin stays healthy until the second half of 2016,
when the block reward halving combined with a general uptrend should create a nice mania phase.

We arrive again at US $ 1.200 or more in the future?

http://blogpop.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/touro.jpeg

  

If $339 is broken, it does not automatically mean we go to double digits. It really depends on the count and how the indicators look when we get there. Also what the following waves do after that.
If we break $339, have a valid 5 waves down, divergence in EWO (and some other indicators) on a higher time frame such as Daily, get good (and I mean pretty heavy) volume to get a strong rejection of further breakdown in price, and get a good rebound in groups of 5 waves up, then there is a pretty good chance that the bottom is in. Whew, that's a lot of stipulations, right? Well, you want to be damn sure.
If what we see is volume that's meh, lower lows on indicators and a rise similar to that of May-early June, It doesn't matter if there is a completed 5 waver down, there is likely more to come. At that point, it's time to refer to old support levels, Fibo and looking for the next completed 5 waves down to find a bottom.

So, between 80 and 300 is a big range, but a lot is possible right now.

RyNinDaCleM would you mind elaborating on that unbelievably (for me, and I'm a bear!) bearish scenario.
Do you mean that if long term support at 340$ will be broken (and I believe it will be), then what follows might be a death spiral?

Months ago I made this prediction, and I was called insane for making it:

Degrees in the charts are meaningless - the x axis is not comparable to the y axis.

What about



 

Bump and run reversal