Topic: Ryans' log - page 6. (Read 50750 times)

May I suggest this video to refresh EW basics: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIIyevqaJoM

Search google to find pdf: "Elliott Wave Basics.pdf - DailyFX"

@RyNinDaCleM

Reading up on Elliot Waves, it doesnt mention anything about ABC, or these numbered boxes you have drawn.  Perhaps you can give us a list of what you are using to do TA. I see you are using Elliot Waves, ABC of something, Trend lines that you use to draw triangles.

I wonder if this type of TA requires some form of abstract thinking that I lack.

You guys are funny!  


You are getting close already, and that's good!
I do expect both, a lower low in price and divergence to signal the end of 3 off the $450 spike.

That big spike up was the C of the correction. The tell tail sign was the A shown below in the box


3 waves up means corrective, so the next valid 5 waver after that must be the C. When you have 3 waves up, you don't immediately know if it's a 123 or an ABC, but once the 4 falls below the top of 1 it automatically becomes an ABC and that proposed 4 becomes part of the B.

BTW, that is hidden bearish divergence shown in the chart

OK...did some reading tonight.  Not sure if I'm following or not, but your post #418 helps a lot.

Now I realize how much I've been oversimplifying, but that gray box for 3 would be followed by a gray box 4 (that shouldn't intersect with the first wave in the series, so target around $416-420) and then a gray box 5 that should end up below where you've got gray box 3.  Is that right?  So the $375-380 to $420 wave is a wave 4--a countertrend up wave of a 5 wave down?

I think I follow the divergence of the lower lows, and I read tonight that wave 3 is typically a strong wave, so wave 5 might not have quite as much downdraft.  But what kind of a divergence in your gray box count would signify some kind of larger market trend up?  A truncated wave, where the gray box 5 does not go lower than the gray box 3?  So, say if goes $380 to $420 completing your gray box 4, then goes to $400 and turns on strong volume?  But dammit, how did you NOT think the run from $400 to $450 was that?  It was like you knew it wasn't, as it was happening!

Grrr. 

To expand on this a little...
Today the price dropped below the original wave-i of C, so this drop from $450 can no longer be a 4th wave. It can however, be a larger B of an even larger ABC. In the chart I posted in post #418, The impulsive 1-2-3 down can also be a zig-zag ABC to make that larger B.

TL;DR
The rise from Tuesday was not impulsive. It was corrective, so more down trend to come.


I read your first couple of posts today, and I'm looking forward to seeing more! But you keep it locked so I couldn't tell you that :/ Well thought out! Keep it up

cool.
there is method to my madness too, my target will probably change as more data comes in... ( like if your target changes , thats some valuable info to consider )
but my thread will be more focused on sentiment, and correlating news events with price movements, basically i'll throw up a chart and start talking about bitcoin price.

Yes, unless something changes the count

 ~375$ thats my magic number, so far, yes.

i don't understand Elliott wave TA, but i'm assuming you have some kind of target price, what's the Elliott wave TA targeting?

am i correct in assuming its targeting ~382$

I thought you have your own target? Something like $375 is your buy zone and that's only if we can break below $400...
Well, I got some good news for you. That $375 isn't a bad spot to buy for a quick bounce back into the $400's, possibly to ~$420. If you can get it

no, way to complicated.

whats your target? for the next wave  

I'll try it this way
Chart from earlier with a little modification


The gray boxes are major waves. The red boxes are sub-waves of the gray boxes. The blue boxes are sub-waves of the red boxes.
I also labeled the divergence in 1 and the lack thereof in 3. Those are the "LL", "HL" Note that you get lower lows (LL) throughout the wave-1 but the indicator makes a higher low (HL) on the 5th wave. This is Bullish divergence and signals the end of the first impulse. That is when I expect an ABC correction. Then note the next group of waves heading down. LL all the way through the price, but also on the EWO. This is lacking the divergence so it requires one more wave down to complete 3.

To the left of the impulses lower we have a complex correction (WXY, the Y would be where the "(iv)" is, but I leave it out for clarity purposes)
WXY corrections are made up of ABC moves (but they can be smaller wxy, too) The point is, is that WXY corrections are all 3 wave structures. Any combination of 3 wave structures. In this chart there are the sub-waves of W, (a) and (b). The X is a smaller degree wxy labeled as (w), (x) and (y)  for it's sub-waves (again the (y) is left out for clarity), but the (w) has sub-waves of abc. Then to finish off the Y, we have (a), (b) and the 5 waves of (c) labeled.

Still following? I hope so  

Over all, yes, I see us dropping further for now.
We may meander sideways or even get another small rise, but the Bear market is not finished in my opinion.


I can explain what is going on, but I don't know where you are having trouble. Is it mainly the corrective waves in that last chart (WXY)? Or the impulse waves? The labeling of the sub-waves?

Even after reading up on EW, I am still not clear on what we are seeing drawn on your charts.

Personally I have not been at it for as long as you have, and I have not done anything related to TA for 4-5 months so I have forgotten a few things, but generally I am bad at it, I knew we were going down from this recent swing to 450, but I couldn't set on an entry price, I just cant figure them out.

So, your bet is down from here?

Yep! It ended up being this


Except it might be a 3/4 instead of the pictured iii/iv


I do except in margin markets

Do you strictly follow the EW rules for altcoin markets as well?

if i have understood correctly, the count to 460+ has invalidated?

Yes, I use SierraChart for Bitcoin, Litecoin and DRK. I was going to write my own data feed for the others, I just haven't got around to it yet.
Based on Trading view charts
https://cryptrader.com/charts/poloniex/xmr/btc
They have a lot of markets there.

I should probably go back and read through the thread, but didn't you say you use Sierra Charts?  I took a quick look and didn't see XMR.  Is there another tool you use?

I'd love to see what waves you're counting on XMR and hear your take in general.  In particular, I'm wondering how you account for a big event.  With XMR, the BCX event was probably even a bigger impact than the paypal was for BTC.

I do actively chart and trade XMR, BBR, DRK, LTC and NXT. They all work pretty well with TA. Like the earlier years of Bitcoin, they tend to way overshoot targets (likely due to panic from inexperienced traders), but over all, they respond well to TA and EW. Higher volume is better, but in the case of Dog, higher volumes don't matter because it is in a seemingly infinite inflation so there will always be more selling pressure than buying pressure.