Topic: Sanctions at work:Russia posts its second highest deficit in the post-Soviet era (Read 1713 times)

The Russian ruble continues its full-scale collapse, dropping below 102 rubles per euro in the morning and falling below the level of 93 rubles per dollar.

Experts unequivocally agree that the greatest blow to the ruble is caused by the fall in Russia's oil and gas revenues, caused, among other things, by Western sanctions. Another serious blow to the stability of the ruble was Prigozhin's military revolt, which became the biggest challenge to the Putin regime during his reign.

Similar exchange rate figures were observed in the first month of the Russian army's invasion of Ukraine, which came as a shock to the Russian economy.

Moreover, earlier the Russian authorities were counting on a weak devaluation, but it is already clear that it is out of control. Since January, the ruble has already fallen by 18%, which is one of the worst indicators among developing countries.

Both I and you know and understand very well that the exchange rate of the local currency, in an isolated country under sanctions, and with severe restrictions on foreign exchange transactions, has no real value! And what you see now is an absolutely artificial picture that the government is trying to keep through manipulations and restrictions. Something like "a good mask for a bad game."
What is the value of the currency of a country that imports almost nothing with high added value, but is only TRYING to manipulate the price of natural resources like oil ? Despite the fact that the manipulations with gas have already ended, a complete collapse And oil and gas - it WAS the main income of the CURRENCY that filled the state budget.

Now the population of this country can only remember about the economic and military power of Russia. There was no need to attack Ukraine. A fatal mistake of the great empire, which, in a collision with a small Ukraine, became weak and vulnerable.

Today, the Russian currency has depreciated to 94.94 against the euro and 11.98 against the yuan, and analysts expect it to fall further. Even the not entirely successful campaign of the Wagnerites against Moscow influences the current fall. Because the shock of the Russians was so great that the panic continues to this day. Everyone suddenly realized that the king was naked and not in control of the situation, a sick and weak old man.
https://m.gazeta.ua/ru/articles/world-life/_rubl-upal-posle-bunta-v-rossii/1149003#:~

Ruble has performed poorly so far in 2023, partly due to the embargo on Russian crude and refined products. But at the same time, don't forget the fact that it was one of the best performing currencies in 2022, despite the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. Before the war started on February 2022, Ruble was trading at around 77.50 to the US Dollar. Now the exchange rate is 84.70. It has got devalued, but not to the extend that a lot many of the experts predicted. And one reason for that is the large gold reserves that Russian central bank holds.

Russia's economic situation is deteriorating not only as a result of international sanctions due to the military attack on Ukraine, but also as a result of an internal struggle for power. The recent failed rebellion by PMC Wagner, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, plunged the Russian ruble to a 15-month low, i.e. almost since the beginning of the full-scale war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.

An attempted military coup by the Wagner PMC, which took place on June 23-24, hastened the fall of the ruble. As of morning, the Russian currency was trading at 85.1 rubles/dollar. This is the lowest level since March 2022, when it fell to record lows a few weeks after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, analysts believe that the ruble will continue to fall - up to 90 rubles / dollar. After all, a period of uncertainty continues in Russia.

However, the cash exchange rate of the ruble has already overcome this mark. As early as Saturday, June 24, Russian banks and exchangers raised rates to more than 100 rubles per dollar. A day after Prigozhin announced the withdrawal of his PMC from Moscow, the value of the dollar fell slightly.

In general, since the beginning of the year, the ruble has lost about 13% in value. This made the Russian currency one of the worst in terms of stability among the currencies of the emerging markets of the world.

The only thing I will add, this is my personal opinion, is about Taiwan. For some reason I am sure that all this will be beautifully presented both inside China, inside the U.S., and for the world stage.
For China there will be a pitch - we found common ground with Taiwan and the U.S., they agreed that Taiwan is part of China and nothing else.
For Taiwan, the scheme of "wide autonomy" and security guarantees for private businesses and businesses owned/controlled by the Taiwanese government will most likely be implemented.
For the world, it will be produced by a joint, three-party statement of China, Taiwan, U.S. - we have found a compromise, learn how modern countries, politicians should conduct relations.
...And on the backs of civilization will finish the center of the new brown plague and tear it to pieces, smiling sweetly I'm sure China will "unexpectedly" get the "historical territories", or get the right of external control until the remnants of russia are stabilized.


But also to the news from Russia

About how good and safe to do business with Russia:
Germany's largest bank said in a June 9 note seen by Reuters that it had discovered a shortage of shares securing depositary receipts issued by Deutsche Bank before Russia's "military special operation" in Ukraine. The shares themselves were held in Russia at another depository bank.

In a note, Deutsche Bank explained the absence of some of the shares by Moscow's decision to allow investors to convert some depositary receipts into Russian securities. The conversion was carried out without the participation or supervision of the German bank, which failed to reconcile the companies' securities with the depositary receipts. This is the first time a major bank has officially notified holders of depositary receipts that they may not receive ownership of all the shares to which they are entitled, two sources advising foreign holders of Russian receipts told Reuters.

Most traders have written down the value of Russian assets, reducing it to zero, but some are still hoping for a recovery in the future.

The clutches of the totalitarian regime are tightening:
The state has taken the biometrics of 75 million Russians from banks. Russian banks began transferring their customers' biometric data to the state Unified Biometric System (UBS GIS).
According to "Kommersant", credit institutions must provide the state data of Russians until September 30, 2023, and 30 days before the transfer of data to notify customers.
For what purposes this data will be used - you can only imagine. By the way, it is possible that this data can be used to access the data of crypto-exchanges.

It seems that the crisis in Russia will intensify after the recent events:
- An American-Chinese rapprochement in which America proved its lack of support for the independence of Taiwan, and surely this will ensure the reduction of Chinese support for Russia.
- An American-Indian rapprochement in which the United States made great offers to India, such as military and technological support.
- An American-Iranian rapprochement, in which the United States made more concessions to establish a new nuclear agreement that guarantees Iran higher levels of enrichment of uranium.
- The rebellion of Wagner's forces and the possibility of an internal conflict in Russia after Wagner announced its control over Russian regions.

Despite the fact that it is customary in Russia to deny the effectiveness of international sanctions, they continue to be introduced even by states "friendly" to it. Thus, one of the largest Chinese banks Bank of China introduced new restrictions for Russian clients. From June 13, Russians cannot make money transactions from Russia to EU, US, UK and Swiss banks.
Similar restrictions have been introduced by banks in other countries, such as Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates. All due to the fact that these states themselves are afraid of being subject to secondary sanctions.

Source: https://world.comments.ua/news/china/neozhidannyy-shag-kitaya-dlya-rossii-pekin-vvel-novye-ogranicheniya-714495.html

While the respected Sithara007 is trying to convince himself that everything is fine in Russia, even after official statements about a more than 50% decrease in oil revenues, as well as the official classification of data on the level of production and reserves of oil and hydrocarbons, those who live in reality observe the impact of events generated by sanctions and related processes (perhaps an attempt to change power), on the economy of a terrorist country
The picture for yesterday, according to stock quotes, looks like this:

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Now even more significant events have begun to take place in Russia than the beginning of the national liberation movements of the regions against the Kremlin. It seems that there is a large-scale struggle for power with the use of tanks, aircraft and the capture of Russian cities.

It all started with the fact that, according to the head of the PMC "Wagner" Prigozhin, the Russian army received the task of eliminating the militants of the PMC "Wagner", who remained in the vicinity of Bakhmut. Apparently, the Kremlin decided not to let armed prisoners out of the front. However, Yevgeny Prigozhin's mercenaries did not wait for their enemy to start executing the order, and they themselves opened fire on Russian regular troops.

On the afternoon of June 23, Prigozhin accused the Russian Defense Ministry of lying about successes at the front in Ukraine and said that the Kremlin had lied about the reasons for the invasion of Ukraine. He stated that Ukraine was not going to attack Russia and did not pose any threat to it, and that for the past eight years it had not shelled the Donbass region, but defended itself from the attack of Russian soldiers. For such statements, the Kremlin opened a criminal case against Prigogine.

On the evening of June 23, Prigozhin accused the Russian military of attacking the rear camp of mercenaries. According to Prigozhin, "a huge number of fighters died." In his last audio address, he specified that a missile strike was carried out, after which helicopters and then artillery worked. Prigozhin noted that the orders to destroy the Wagner came from Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov after a meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Therefore, Prigozhin announced his intention to eliminate Shoigu and the military command of the Russian Federation.

Russian media recently reported on the seizure of the headquarters of the Southern Military District, the buildings of the local FSB and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, as well as the administration of Rostov by Prigozhin's armed men. At the same time, Prigozhin said that his people, and these are 25 thousand fighters, had already shot down two helicopters that fired at their columns moving towards Rostov.

Rostov was taken without a fight, but a fight with Kadyrovsky Akhmat is expected on the Rostov-Taganrog highway," the military correspondents write.

Ukraine is watching with interest and curiosity what is happening in Russia and rapidly developing events.

Russian refinery output is close to record highs:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russias-Crude-Oil-Processing-Hits-New-Highs.html

At the time, Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) recently published an article claiming that NATO countries purchased €42 billion worth of refined products, that were produced using Russian crude.

https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/the-laundromat-how-the-price-cap-coalition-whitewashes-russian-oil-in-third-countries/

Everyone is blaming India, but if you check this graph, you can see the important role that Turkey is playing in laundering the Russian hydrocarbons:

It must be understood that sanctions are not a "shot in the head" when the effect occurs immediately. This is a slow suffocation of the economy. Of course, everyone wants Russia to return to the Stone Age as soon as possible, but we must realistically look at the situation. Firstly, the world itself has created a kind of financial cushion for Russia, thoughtlessly buying oil and gas from them. It's good that this issue has already been closed. But we also do not forget that in addition to Russia, there is more than one "offended" state in the world, or one for whom "money does not smell", or those that simply use the situation as "the last chance to remove at least some benefit from Russia." But also do not deny the effectiveness of sanctions! Kremlin terrorists squeal through all the holes "lift the sanctions", the degradation of the economy is already beginning to have a very negative impact on the wallets of those in power, and Putin's inner circle. They don't care about the people! At the same time, most of the population of Russia has never lived normally, so sanctions do not apply to them ...
But, we already see how India and China are turning away from Russia, and these were the last important partners of the terrorist country.
I will give one example - against the USSR, a more powerful country than modern Russia, sanctions were introduced in the late 70s. The USSR withstood about 20 years. In Russia, after less than one year of sanctions, the situation is already close to the situation in the USSR before the collapse. just watch






Everything is within the framework of the law and accepted methodologies in Russia. At the request of the people of your region, tired of oppression, they voted for them and for you! Thanks to everyone who voted and to you for recognizing an independent republic! Be the brotherly people of the Belgorod People's Republic, which the Kremlin constantly bombs!

And soon ordinary tractor drivers, teachers and doctors will dig up tanks (a lot of them have been buried there since the times of the USSR - well, you know! ), buy small arms and uniforms (sold in any store - well, you know ) and release you at your request!

Russia is one of the countries I don't believe anything they say and they try as much as possible to paint themselves good in the spotlight. But truly, the impact of the Western sanction is not as bitting as thought, maybe in the nearest future, I don't know. What happens is that Russia which subsides the effect also has some cooperating allies' involvement that made it easy for them, and such allies have stepped up trades with them to cushion the effect of the transactions.

Experts predict conflicting forecasts this year, and according to IMF, they are holding up but still forecasts a trade deficit for them in 2023.

That's the news, it turns out there was a referendum on secession from Russia in the region where I live, and this is the first time I hear about it.

LOL.. the regions you have mentioned have sent the maximum number of soldiers to the war zone. Buryats and Chechens dominated the early phase of the war, while other minorities such as Ossets and Daghestanis are also having a higher representation compared to their actual population. A small minority of the people in these regions may be having separatist tendencies. But the vast majority are more than happy to serve in the Armed Forces of Russia. And it is really laughable to talk about Koenigsberg, Ingria.etc. The minorities in these regions number only a few hundred each.

The Kremlin was so engaged in self-hypnosis about its greatness, the uniqueness of impunity, that they forgot about the law of "boomerang".
And it's real - why can the "dombas people" "express a desire to secede from the country, at a referendum", while others cannot? CAN! And now what they so "flaunted" in Russia has returned to them. And the funny thing is that now they are obliged to close their mouths and Humble themselves, with the right of the local population to self-determination! Including - the right to secede from some country. Moreover, Russia itself said "you don't give a damn about the laws of the country where this part of the population lives!" , which means that no one gives a damn about any laws of Russia itself

Kaliningrad - it's time to raise the issue of protecting the German-speaking population, and returning the territory! Königsberg People's Republic - must be free! )))


Well, back to the topic topic.

Bank of China (BoC), the third largest bank in China by assets, has introduced restrictions on payments in yuan for Russian clients. This was reported to Frank Media by several Russian banks that used correspondent accounts in BoC.

According to bankers, the restrictions apply to yuan transfers to EU, Swiss, UK and US banks. Moreover, the ban applies even to payments to China if their recipients are Chinese branches of Western banks.

Those. China, adopted the experience of India in "assisting fraternal Russia", buys oil, gas, resources from Russia for its yuan. And then he blocks them in his banks!
So to understand the scale of "friendship" - in India, and its banks are now blocked from money from oil deals, about 3 billion dollars! And India does not allow Russia to do something with them, and in the first place - to exchange them for dollars! Those. fairy tales about the high price of oil are also broken by the fact that Russia does not receive MONEY for its oil from India Now from China!

Today's Russia is an empire that rests on brutal force and forced subjugation of its indigenous peoples. Therefore, it is quite logical that now these peoples are looking with hope as the central government of Russia is weakening due to defeats in the war in Ukraine. But now the regions are beginning to raise their heads.

Representatives of Koenigsberg (Kaliningrad region), Ingria (St. Petersburg), the Urals (Yekaterinburg), Siberia (Novosibirsk) and Kuban (Krasnodar Territory) said they want to get rid of territorial, political and economic dependence on Moscow.
This was stated by the representatives of the initiative groups during the Post-Russia Forum, which took place in the premises of the European Parliament on the evening of January 30.

On May 12, a press conference was held in Warsaw to sum up the results of the national online referendum for the self-determination of the republics of the Russian Federation. Voting on the independence of five regions of Russia: Koenigsberg (Kaliningrad and the region), Ingria (St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region), Kuban (Krasnodar Territory), Siberia and the Urals took place from February 16 to February 28, 2023. In Chuvashia, Karelia, Belgorod, Novgorod and Voronezh people's republics will also begin referendums for independence.

In addition, Ichkeria (Chechnya), Buryatia, Tatarstan, Bashkirstan and other regions, where a liberation movement is already maturing, will also rise in due time.

Sources:
https://focus.ua/voennye-novosti/522560-svobodnaya-ichkeriya-chechency-gotovyatsya-voevat-za-nezavisimost-svoey-territorii-video

https://rubryka.com/ru/2023/02/01/dosyt-goduvaty-moskvu-na-rosiyi-u-p-yatoh-regionah-zagovoryly-pro-referendum-shhodo-nezalezhnosti/

https://uatv.ua/dekolonizatsiya-rossii-yakutiya-vystupaet-za-nezavisimost-ot-rf-video/

https://news.obozrevatel.com/russia/referendum-za-nezavisimost-novyie-regionyi-rossii-trebuyut-otdeleniya.htm

I am now listening to the lectures of the modern methodologist Peter Shchedrovitsky. 

His fate is an example of how active actions to change the world for the better lead to disastrous consequences.  Ideas are more dangerous than bullets and shells.

But listening to his lectures is interesting, he is one of the world's leading experts on human thinking.  Now he says Russia never had the slightest chance of achieving its goal of becoming a world superpower.  The path of Russia is the path of catching up industrial and information development, with a very cautious and balanced foreign and domestic policy. 

Nevertheless, Russia throughout its history has made repeated attempts to mobilize its economy and population to achieve this overarching goal.  Each time it ended in a colossal catastrophe and the waste of the most valuable resource for the development of the country - the human population. 

The best scenarios for the development of the country are associated with minimal efforts to mobilize the economy and the population. 

However, Russia did not comprehend the lessons of the twentieth century.

"Things in the country were not going badly. One might even say well. But every day it gets worse and worse" - this is an absolutely accurate description of what is happening in Russia now.

On the one hand, the Ministry of Statistics and other "mouthpieces for improvement" are trumpeting growth and other positive developments. And on the other hand, more and more information about the real indicators of the economy is hidden behind a secrecy stamp.

At the same time, the primitivism of the lies of Russian officials comes to the point that some say everything is fine, while others, specialized experts, say "this is a collapse."

An increase in indicators in 2023 will be possible, but this will not be due to economic growth indicators, but to high inflation and the depreciation of the ruble, which, of course, will give noticeably higher indicators of ruble receipts in the budgets. But we then understand that these will be unsecured pieces of paper, albeit in a huge amount.


A small selection of information from Russia itself.

https://republic.ru/posts/108481
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/05/25/kitai-vmesto-sili-sibiri-2-reshil-stroit-gazoprovod-izturkmenii-a44055
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/05/25/minoboroni-otkazalos-osvobozhdat-otmobilizatsii-lyudei-sdiabetom-iboleznyami-serdtsa-a44114
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/05/25/verhovnii-sud-podtverdil-chto-mobilizatsiya-vrossii-prodolzhaetsya-a44084
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/06/09/tseni-nabenzin-dlya-rossiyan-postavili-rekord-nesmotrya-napadenie-tsen-narossiiskuyu-neft-pochti-vdvoe-a45681



Patient, calm down, take the pills, and calmly communicate with the flowers You can't be so nervous

Russia is excluded from the global economy:
https://mind.ua/en/news/20258397-western-companies-that-remained-in-russia-increased-their-profits-by-one-and-a-half-times-in-2022
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-western-companies-operations-profits-tax-revenues-2022-exit-sanctions-2023-6
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/25/business/russia-chinese-brands-sales-surge-ukraine-war-intl-hnk/index.html
 

Don't your realize nobody believes this propaganda BS you're spreading? You forgot to use the words "terrorist state", "bloody dictator" and "killing innocent children" for more dramatic effect. I fear you won't get your bonus today