Topic: Sanctions at work:Russia posts its second highest deficit in the post-Soviet era - page 5. (Read 1687 times)

As Wikipedia says: a unitary state is a form of government in which the state does not include any state entities with elements of sovereignty, and its constituent administrative-territorial units are subordinate to single central authorities.
 
This form of government does not at all contradict the multinationality in this state. Now almost any state is multinational, because in open civilized states, thanks to the current technical progress, people of all races and nationalities move freely. And this does not mean at all that the representatives of all nations in each state must necessarily have separate elements of their sovereignty.

Although Russia is a federation according to the Constitution, in fact it is more suitable for the classification of a unitary state, since the nations and nationalities representing it do not have any real rights. Moreover, now Russia is more like a monarchy, which is single-handedly ruled by the monarch - Putin. He makes sole important decisions, and all other state democratic institutions are actually subordinate to him. The central government rests on repressive law enforcement agencies that suppress any dissent. So, in fact, only Putin and several other persons close to him made the decision to invade Ukraine militarily. And to go out into the streets with slogans for peace and against war, for this any citizen faces a long prison term.

But failures in the war against Ukraine inevitably cause centrifugal tendencies, and it is precisely this that Russia should be afraid of in the near future.

 


1. This is a FORECAST. The IMF forecast, which, according to the Russians, are "creepy manipulators who speak only for their own benefit." or in this context - the IMF has become a fount of truth and truth?
2. Even if SUDDENLY the forecast comes true - what do you have to do with the income of the group of Kremlin kleptomaniacs? It will not affect the population in any way. First of all, they will fill their pockets, which are depleted from the sanctions
3. There is an improvement option, and most likely they had it in mind - Russia will become a region of China More precisely, it will become OFFICIAL, because now it actually happened, but not officially formalized ...
4. It's strange, but my relatives from Krasnodar and Novosibirsk, for some reason, began to howl around 2020 - either medicines became more expensive, then pensions were small and utility bills were growing, then products were becoming more expensive and worse in quality ... But in 2022 they generally howled from "improvements" in Russia ))
5. Let me return to the forecasts - until recently, Russia predicted "Europe will freeze without Russian gas", "oil and gas will cost $100,500", "sanctions will only benefit - economic growth, incomes, pensions will soon grow", "Ukraine will be taken under full control for 2-3 weeks" and many other equally fabulous forecasts. Do you believe in all fairy tales? You are an adult, and not a very stupid person, and you are led by such fairy tales!?
6. IMF forecasts - I recommend reading them and comparing them with reality - you can start looking right somewhere from 2010
7. I recommend reading the forecasts of the Russian Ministry of Finance - they understand the real picture, but their forecasts are not so fabulous. Although I understand - you choose the best one for yourself
I’ll add here - the IMF, for example, announces a global recession in 2023, and it will hook many, including Russia. Don't these 2 predictions seem a bit contradictory?
8. And now we look at the forecasts of 10 large financial institutions involved in forecasts regarding the growth or fall of Ukraine's GDP for 2023-2024. Here is a picture, so visually it is better to perceive

I read you and think - Lord, how do I even live here in Russia? Then I open a fresh IMF report and see another change in the forecast for Russia for 2023, instead of 0.3% growth, 0.7% growth is now predicted. It's probably not so bad, at least compared to Germany and the UK.

It is precisely because the Kremlin executioner decided to wishful thinking, and you did not understand the history, now wonderful sanctions have been imposed on Russia
It is precisely for the annexation, precisely for the illegitimate, forced, under threat, and without the admission of international observers, without observing the laws of the country to which these territories belong - SANCTIONS!

And due to the fact that someone manipulated Kosovo/Ukrainian/legitimately, now we have the following events:

- The well-established scheme for the supply of Russian oil to Asia by the “shadow fleet”, assembled in case of sanctions, has cracked at the seams. The European authorities have tightened control over tankers that raid the coasts of EU countries in order to transfer oil from one ship to another and “hide” from the control of sanctions.
Under scrutiny were both "points" that Russian barrel carriers liked - not far from the Greek Kalamata and near Ceuta, a Spanish enclave on the coast of North Africa.
As a result, according to Reuters, in March the volume of offshore transshipment transactions (ship-to-ship, STS) fell: at Kalamata from 1 million tons to 300 thousand tons, at Ceuta - from 500 thousand tons to 100 thousand.
https://www.portseurope.com/russian-maritime-register-of-shipping-certified-vessels-banned-in-bulgarian-ports/

- Exodus of Western traders from the Russian grain market continues to gain momentum.

Following American Cargill and Canadian Viterra, the two largest international exporters of Russian wheat, the French trading house Louis Dreyfus announced the termination of operations with the Russian Federation.
...
The departure of Louis Dreyfus will leave the Russian grain market without Western participants. Cargill and Viterra, which announced they were halting deliveries last week, controlled 14% of Russian grain exports, and have exported 3.5 million tons of grain since the beginning of last year's agricultural season.
Following the termination of operations, Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) thought. The company, which owns a 50% stake in a joint venture with the Rostov holding Aston, is considering how to deal with the business, sources familiar with the situation told Bloomberg.
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/04/03/poslednii-krupnii-zapadnii-treider-uhodit-s-rossiiskogo-rinka-zerna-a38883

- And in general, unexpected news
Russia turns out to be China's biggest 'hidden' borrower
AidData: Russia received $125 billion in loans from China over 17 years
The largest recipient of "hidden" loans from China for 2000-2017 was Russia - $125 billion. Loans were received mainly by state-owned oil and gas companies on terms close to market terms and against future oil and gas supplies. This is stated in the report of the American research laboratory AidData, dedicated to the PRC program to finance projects abroad.

But everyone screams - "Russia has no external debts" .... Russia has no money, not "no debts"!

this and much more - all due to the fact that someone does not learn history and confuses situations 

Okay, so let's dive into the tea on Russia's economy. Everyone and their mama has been arguing about it lately. Some people were all like, "nah, the sanctions ain't gonna do nothin'," while others side-eyed Russia's claim that they had a surplus. But, like always, the truth is a hot mess in between those two extremes. Russia claimed they had a surplus, but now they're dealing with a 2.3% deficit 'cause of gas prices taking a dive, people getting laid off, and that whole situation with Ukraine. But here's the kicker, that deficit could be even worse than what they're saying. That's why we need transparency and accountability, y'all.

Bruh, it ain't simple, and we can't fix it with just one quick fix. Some people might say that we need to be more nationalistic, but that won't fix what's really going on with the economy. We need leaders that will actually answer to the people and make real moves to fix things, even if it's tough. 'Cause, let's be real, the alternative is straight-up whack.

Wet fantasies of Ukrainian nationalists do not agree well with reality. Ukraine is a multinational state, it has regions with a predominance of ethnic Russians, Poles, Hungarians, Romanians. If Ukraine insists on its unitarity, it may cease to exist as a state altogether due to the strengthening of centrifugal tendencies. What is actually happening now.

Ukraine is a unitary state and therefore there can be no autonomy in it regarding the structure of state power, the presence of law enforcement agencies with special powers, and so on. What happened to all the autonomies, where the Russians speculate in the Russian language and the Russian-speaking population, we have already seen in the example of the so-called Transnistrian Republic, North Ossetia, and so on. Russia provokes a conflict on the basis of language and under this pretext introduces its troops and promotes its state interests.

  In the situation with the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine, the task was somewhat different. Russia wanted to achieve extensive autonomy in these areas with its own authorities, law enforcement and judicial structures and then transfer the destroyed territory back to Ukraine, so that by representing this autonomy in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, blocking Ukraine's entry into the EU and NATO. But the plan of Russia was not destined to come true.

In the future, there may be several state languages in Ukraine, but not the language of the occupier. It is already proposed to introduce, in addition to Ukrainian, English as the second state language. This will forever put an end to possible further Russian aggression on the basis of the Russian language and the Russian-speaking population. By the way, already now the population of Ukraine, including the eastern regions, is voluntarily trying to switch to an exclusively Ukrainian language so as not to experience another "Russian spring" anymore.

Why don't I jump from Ukraine to Kosovo if, firstly, these are two similar cases in modern European practice, and secondly, we are conducting this dialogue in the topic of the budget deficit in Russia. 

And why did you start jumping from the topic of Ukraine to the topic of Kosovo? Did not like the questions? So expected!
Well, and most importantly - you are trying, as always, to confuse concepts and events. Kosovo was an ethnic autonomous region with its own history. It was not occupied, and a referendum was not held there under the barrels of machine guns and the threat "if you do not vote for the right side, we will kill you." And the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, as well as the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, are integral parts of Ukraine, which is recognized by the entire world community. At the same time, Russia also undertook to ensure the integrity and inviolability of the borders of Ukraine.
At the same time, already today, the Kremlin ghoul, without hiding, says that his goal is the illegal CAPTURE OF FOREIGN TERRITORIES. These are absolutely 2 different stories that you, not very successfully, are trying to pass off as the same thing. You didn’t manage to “push through” this lie either

By the way - tell me, what happened that after the fake referendum in the terrorist-occupied Crimea, in "free Russia" the next morning, Putin categorically banned any referendums on changing the status of territories?

The legitimacy of the referendums in the former eastern Ukraine is exactly the same as the legitimacy of the referendum in Kosovo, because the precedent in Kosovo was taken as a basis as an example.

Russia did not need Donbass, it did not want to take it, and for 8 years it tried to resolve the issue through diplomacy within the framework of the Minsk agreements. And then it suddenly became clear that neither France, nor Germany, nor Ukraine were going to fulfill the obligations they had voluntarily assumed, but were simply playing for time so that Ukraine would prepare for a war with Russia. Well, I'm glad you got what you wanted, now don't complain. They did not want to give Donetsk and Lugansk a little more autonomy and the ability to speak their native language freely - so much the worse for you.

"You're all lying" is the classic First Chapter of the Russian "propaganda manual". I will ask a question that will drive you into a corner - but prove the opposite, with arguments and real evidence?
I can even easily prove that your words are a cheap, primitive lie! Easily !
So 3 simple questions:
1. What population of Donetsk and Luhansk regions was before the occupation by Russian terrorists?
2. What is the number of internal migrants from the moment of occupation by Russian terrorists to the holding of pseudo-referendums?
3. How many votes were recorded in pseudo-referendums?

I will not say anything about compliance with the rules and control of the electoral right ... But, it will be enough for everyone - to hear the answers to 3 simple questions

PS Would you like to talk about how the "referendum" was held in the southern regions temporarily occupied by Russia? With the facts of coercion, threats, and armed "election commissions", which on video recordings, without hiding, indicated to residents, for example, Kherson, who to vote for, and what will happen if you do not vote "correctly" for the occupying authorities?

PS Have you already started learning Chinese? A resident of the future depressive new region of China, called Novokitayshchina?

You are lying and this is the usual practice of your behavior on this forum. Residents of the eastern regions of Ukraine voted in a referendum for joining Russia and they are fighting together with the Russian armed forces against the occupying forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. As for destruction, this is a common thing in armed conflicts and the liberated territories are being actively restored, for example, Mariupol was practically rebuilt in less than a year.

war is never a solution - it changes the life of people and the nation.
Both the countries should have a dialogue instead of deadlock
on the other hand - one nation freedom fighter is a terisot of other nation. So there is a dire need to understand the fact that people want peace at any cost.

Do you think that now the inhabitants of Eastern Ukraine still want to join Russia? They changed their mind long ago, because they realized that Russia is chaos, devastation, disregard for the rights of residents, death, and so on. What did Russia bring to the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine? Destroyed to the foundation of the city and other settlements, because advancing, Russia used the tactics of a fiery shaft and at first the settlement turned into ruins by 90 percent, and only after that the Russians entered there. In the more or less surviving Donetsk and Lugansk, public utilities practically do not work, there is almost no male population left due to constant forced mobilization for war. At the same time, the invaders constantly robbed, raped and killed even the Russian-speaking population. Now they even agree to take an exam on the knowledge of the Ukrainian language, if only not to be part of Russia.

US and it's NATO allies have one rule for Israel and another rule for countries such as Russia and Iran. This amounts to double speak. And take the case of Kosovo. That territory is recognized as a part of Serbia. NATO justified the secession saying that Albanians are a majority in Kosovo and they want to become independent from Serbia. The same argument should be applied to Eastern Ukraine, I guess. The population is mostly Russian speaking and if they want to become part of Russia, then let it be so.

And its going to get worse if you ask me about it. West may have attacked a lot of innocent people and killed tens of thousands and created instability in many regions, that's a thing we dislike about west and will continue to do so until they fix their mistakes, this is the group of nations that became as rich as they are right now thanks to killing and pillaging and murdering people all around the world, the amount of people USA, UK and all of Europe killed is impossible to measure, and that's how they are rich. BUT! the case here is Russia attacking a "western" nation, Ukraine is not exactly western but not eastern neither, its right in the middle of Europe and Russia, so when they did that, it pissed of west, and west has every right to stop working with anyone they want, that's why Russia will get worse and worse.

Russia is unstoppable and they will achieve what they plane for sure
So its better not to interfere in other business and EU should remain silent like the whole world is silent for Palestinae and Syria

there was a video which went viral about Russia and Ukraine war. The Russian representative said those who feel bad about Ukraine must consider Ukraine as Palestine and Russia as USA - this is a very powerful message given by Russia - If EU and NATO is so concerned about the Ukraine they must also consider Palestine and other muslim countries

A little about how "sanctions do not work"
To begin with, let me remind you of Putin's "world-class politics" speech:
"... it would be good if all countries wishing to impose sanctions against Russia did so "as soon as possible." He stated this at the international forum "Russian Energy Week"
“This would give us a free hand to protect our national interests by such means as we consider most effective for us,” the president said.
Read more on RBC:
https://www.rbc.ru/politics/03/10/2018/5bb4b5169a794730e720fcf0

And in the middle of 2022, they began to impose sanctions, and not all of them and not immediately

April 2023:
- The two largest international traders, who have exported a total of 3.5 million tons of Russian grain since the summer of 2022, simultaneously decided to abandon Russian products.
The American Cargill, which provided 1.4 million tons of Russian grain exports, notified the Ministry of Agriculture that it would suspend the export of grain from the Russian Federation from July 1, 2023. The company explained its step by the growing difficulties in working with Russia: although grains did not fall under the sanctions of the United States and the European Union, restrictions on banks and state-owned companies make it difficult to pay for transactions.
Viterra, one of the largest agricultural traders in the world, has decided to abandon Russian grain, which is connected with the Swiss commodity trader Glencore.
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/03/29/dva-krupneishih-zapadnih-treidera-obyavili-boikot-rossiiskomu-zernu-a38466

- Reuters: Russia sells oil to India for only $32-35 per barrel: half the market price

- In March, the average price of the main Russian export brand fell to $47.85 per barrel, the Ministry of Finance reported on Monday. Compared to February, Urals quotes sank another $1.71 (3.4%), compared to January they turned out to be lower by $1.63, and in annual terms they collapsed almost 2 times.
So cheap, according to official statistics, Russian oil has never been worth since November 2020, when the global market experienced the shock of the pandemic and the strongest overproduction crisis in history.
PS Yes, now, after the OPEC+ demarche, the price jumped a little, but again it is smoothly going down

- Intelligence of Britain: The Kremlin is looking for ways to offer foreign investors from "friendly" countries to buy out part of the sovereign debt of the impoverished budget of the Russian Federation.

- According to Markus Coip, the Russian military-industrial complex is not able to make up for the material losses of the Russian army in Ukraine. By mid-autumn, according to his forecast, the reserves will finally run out.
https://www.dw.com/ru/voennyj-ekspert-ukraina-oderzit-pobedu-uze-v-oktabre/a-65224957?maca=rus-tco-dw

- In Russia, in January 2023, the incidence of infectious diseases, including HIV, hepatitis, tuberculosis and syphilis, has sharply increased, follows from the reports of Rosstat and Rospotrebnadzor, which were analyzed by Medvestnik.
According to the departments, the incidence of newly diagnosed tuberculosis increased by 10% compared to last year, HIV - by 20%, syphilis - by 71%, acute hepatitis - by 45%. The situation is especially serious with hepatitis A (+50% of those infected) and hepatitis C (+42%). The incidence of hepatitis B increased by 11%.
https://www.sibreal.org/a/v-rossii-rezko-vyrosla-zabolevaemost-vich-sifilisom-i-gepatitom/32350927.html