Topic: Sanctions at work:Russia posts its second highest deficit in the post-Soviet era - page 4. (Read 1713 times)

Damn it, of course this is very good for Russia. Loading the military-industrial complex with 100% orders, forcing the defense industry to work in three shifts around the clock and seven days a week - this is the backbone thanks to which the Russian economy did not fall to pieces when turning from the West to the South and East. This is a great, perhaps the best, way to inject money into the economy without causing inflation to spike. In fact, money is just a material equivalent of life force, and Russia has a huge energy surplus, it has to be spent somewhere. And a controlled armed conflict on foreign territory is an ideal option, first destroy everything there, and then rebuild everything anew - a double profit.

The conflict in Ukraine is beneficial to the United States, Russia, India and China. Unfavorable for energy-deficient Europe and Ukraine itself. This is in short.

Everything is a little different. According to Reuters, Russia spent 525.4 billion rubles from its budget on "national defense" in January and February 2022. However, in the first two months of 2023, the Russian government spent 2 trillion rubles, or $26 billion, on defense. According to experts, these funds were directed to the war against Ukraine. In addition, they were supposed to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions on the Russian economy.
At the same time, Russia budgeted for 2023 spending in the amount of 4.98 trillion rubles. But almost 40% of them have already spent in the first 2 months of the year.
Also, according to analysts, the defense spending of the aggressor country in January and February 2023 amounted to 36.2% of total budget spending. This is almost twice as much spending on social programs and almost four times as much - on the "national economy". Do you think this is very good for Russia?

Do you also think that a budget deficit is bad? Your beloved US and every G7 country has been running chronic budget deficits for years. Or is it different?

By itself, the budget deficit is not very good, you have to be able to live within your means. But at the macroeconomic level, the budget deficit is rather the norm. Nobody likes a recession (although there is nothing wrong with a recession, the processes in the economy are usually cyclical) and governments artificially stimulate economic growth by spending more than they earn. And they also stimulate their own citizens, the savings model of behavior again provokes a recession. Therefore, there is no need to dramatize the current budget deficit in Russia, especially since part of it is purely technical in nature (the government now has a trillion rubles of undistributed income - these are still the consequences of the winter transition to a single tax account). But if economic growth indicators matter to you, then the current budget deficit is definitely a success, because it will directly lead to an increase in the percentage of GDP growth in the foreseeable future and right now.

That is why Biden cannot agree on an increase in the debt ceiling - the Republicans are demanding spending cuts, and this will immediately lead to a recession, which is extremely disadvantageous for Biden before the elections. Economic growth is not determined by how much you earn, but by how much you spend.

One of my favorite topics. HERE it is very interesting to watch some characters who realize in reality what is called "cognitive dissonance" This is when you see that everything in the country is collapsing, but you cheerfully talk about SUCCESS

I repeat once again - the best phrase describing the situation in Russia today: "things on the collective farm were not bad, one might even say good, but every day it gets worse and worse." The only thing I'm not sure that I could convey the meaning by literally translating the phrase.

Well, to consolidate reality, and for lovers of Russian propaganda, where the phrase works - "a fall is actually an increase, albeit negative, but GROWTH!"

So, the new "successes" of Russia:
- The national project "Demography" worth 4 trillion rubles, appeals to traditional values and calls to have children, voiced by officials up to the president, were powerless to pull Russia out of the demographic hole.
“Demography is where we have failed so far. And indeed, <…> we are now in a very difficult situation in terms of demographics,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at a briefing on Friday.
https://www.moscowtimes.eu/2023/05/19/u-nas-ne-poluchaetsya-v-kremle-konstatirovali-proval-popitok-ugovorit-rossiyan-rozhat-detei-a43433

- China has offered a military alliance to Kazakhstan and four other countries of the former USSR. Xi Jinping met with the leaders of 5 Central Asian countries and offered defense cooperation and billions of yuan in aid.
Guess - this is a defense against whom? And note - China did not offer Russia to join this union! Guess why?

- Belgorod residents asked the authorities to give them weapons on the eve of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The men turned to the governor and the Ministry of Internal Affairs with a request to give them weapons in order to protect their families. In defense of the Russian army and the Defense Ministry, they do not believe, which is logical.
https://twitter.com/Igor12066848/status/1659579661326721025?s=20
PS Belgorod is a Russian city that Russia itself periodically bombs!

- The proposal to ban the import of Russian uranium has received support in the US Congress.

- Every day, the Russian military machine "eats" about 30 billion rubles - an amount comparable to what the poorest regions collect in the treasury in a year. For example, the income of the Jewish Autonomous Region in 2023 is set at the level of 19.3 billion rubles, Kalmykia - 24.9 billion rubles, Ingushetia - 35.9 billion rubles.

- and of course about the "second army of the world" and its "successes". About the army that on its knees begged drones from Iran for terrorism: Russia attacked Kyiv for the eleventh time since the beginning of May. A total of 18 Shahed kamikaze drones were launched. All of them were shot down, no one was injured, the Air Force of Ukraine reported

PS This is the special forces of Eritrea, the OFFICIAL strategic partner of Russia. Yes, Russia now has only such partners
https://twitter.com/Igor12066848/status/1659798175064940544?s=20

Now I will tell you that the budget deficit in Russia is very good.

It sounds paradoxical, but if you understand economics at least a little deeper than at a primitive philistine level, then you will agree with me. In general, it is not clear how the Russian economy demonstrated GDP growth in past years, given the very tight monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia and the savings model of the Government's behavior. Now last year’s surge in inflation after the imposition of sanctions has been curbed, the current inflation rate in Russia has been below the Central Bank’s target level of 4% for two months already (and lower than in any of the EU countries and in the United States), and the Central Bank has significantly softened its rhetoric and monetary policy, in other words stopped raising the key rate, began to give signals about its possible reduction and began to increase the money supply. For Russia, which lives in conditions of a chronic shortage of the money supply, this is like life-giving rain after a drought!

The existing global metric for calculating nominal GDP is designed in such a way that GDP growth is possible almost only with a budget deficit. This is a feature of the Western paradigm of the advanced consumption society and the debt-based economy - if you do not have a budget deficit, you have nothing else to grow on. This is a bit exaggerated, but economic indicators fit this paradigm. I mean, there is nothing surprising in the fact that every quarter the world forecasts for the Russian economy are revised upwards. And it will not be surprising if in a year or two the Russian economy makes an impressive jump to double digits precisely against the background of the current anomalously large budget deficit for Russia, which has already become accustomed to a sustained budget surplus.

For reference: The National Wealth Fund of Russia allows you to completely close the budget deficit of 20% within three years without external or internal borrowing.

I have to say that -1.9% is not a critical decrease and by no means can be called a collapse.


Besides, it seems that in the last year they still showed some growth being under sanctions already. It mean in the last 2 years Russia's economy has in fact gone up 1.1%. Which is not that bad, taking into account that economies of many EU countries have contracted by similar %. Europe's biggest economy - Germany is forecasted to contract by 0.6 percent, Latvia, by 0.3 percent, and Sweden, by 0.6 percent. Most other EU countries are either at 0% growth or some tiny growth (less than 1%).

According to The Moscow Times, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, at a meeting with Putin, spoke about problems with filling the Russian budget, which can no longer be hidden.

According to the Ministry of Finance, in the first four months of this year, oil and gas tax revenues halved at once - to 2.3 trillion rubles, while total revenues fell by 22% - to 7.8 trillion rubles. Russian budget expenditures turned out to be 1.4 times higher than revenues. This led to the fact that the treasury deficit as of the beginning of May amounted to 3.4 trillion rubles.

Siluanov acknowledged that the reduction in raw material revenues was caused by the current situation on the market and the discounts that Russian oil companies are forced to make for customers. The Russian authorities planned that the budget deficit for the current year would be 2% of GDP (2.9 trillion rubles). This number is in the law. However, analysts predict that in reality the hole could reach 4% of GDP (4-5 trillion rubles).

Meanwhile, gas prices in Europe have fallen to the region of $360 per thousand cubic meters. These are no longer just pre-war levels, the current price is 10 times lower than the peak values observed in 2022.

The situation for Russia will continue to deteriorate exponentially, as the fall has affected all spheres of life in this aggressive country. And there is no quick way out of this situation.

And here we are again, right after being told that the deficit was a fluke, that it's some state business with taxes and other bla bla that the deficit will be covered, and that Russia's economy will keep grow when in reality:

Russia Budget Deficit Hits $45 Billion, Exceeding Full-Year Goal
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-11/russia-budget-gap-hits-45-billion-exceeding-full-year-goal

Russia's Economy Contracts 1.9% In First Quarter
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-economy-shrank-1-9-161523790.html

Love how Europe is sinking although it records growth while Russia becomes a superpower while in a complete recession.
But, yeah, reality and propaganda can't show the same picture, ever!!!!

I'm not sure if you're referring to the fact that Russia is trying to get rid of the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and other countries.
 
The sanctions are aimed at Russia, not the United States.

Does dissonance bother you? Simple, ordinary dissonance? You described everything beautifully, just like in Russia it is customary to present your failures as heroic and correct steps

But if everything is as you wrote - why is the Foreign Ministry, and the top of the Kremlin squeals that the sanctions are not fair, they ask to be canceled, they knock on the table with their fists and ... drastically reduce social programs and lower the standard of living of Russians? Or is it useful? So maybe you are not quite all right with a breadth of views, but do you have a rich imagination?

Just a few facts from 2023, about the "successes of Russia", and of course my narrow outlook and not understanding the benefits
All sanctions have not yet been introduced, as the Kremlin Fuhrer wanted, they were introduced a little more than half a year ago ... And now:
- The federal budget deficit in the first ten days of March exceeded the figure set for the whole year. This was stated by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, speaking with the annual report of the government in the State Duma, writes RBC.
According to Mishustin, as of early March, budget revenues amounted to 3 trillion rubles, expenses - 6.3 trillion rubles, and a deficit - 3.3 trillion rubles.
https://www.rbc.ru/economics/23/03/2023/641c52c89a79477c8ab0fa50
- 30% of the RF budget is SECRET

... but according to you, everything is ideal in Russia and even better than it was before, but the West has real problems By the way, what happened to the freezing of the EU? Well, without Russian gas and oil? Still, the whole industry collapsed there and all the companies closed and went bankrupt?!

It seems to be 2 points, but they contain all the fakeness of your arguments

UPD 
Just stumbled upon it right now
Six regions of Russia have exhausted the remaining budget reserves and entered 2023 with a complete or almost complete lack of funds in their accounts. According to RBC, analysts of Expert RA came to this conclusion after analyzing the data of the Electronic Budget portal.
Thus, in the fourth quarter, the Tyumen region missed every second ruble of taxes: fees fell by 48.9%. The income of the Krasnoyarsk Territory fell by 39%, the Murmansk Region - by 33%, Khakassia - by 32%, the Kemerovo Region - by 30%.


PS Your concept is very reminiscent of the ideology of the USSR to me: living well is bad. Poverty is not a vice. In the West, everything is plentiful and cheap, but they have no soulfulness. So what if we live badly, but stable

I'm not sure if you have read the article or not, but it looks like you are trying to get a sense of reality out of the fact that Russia is to me that Russia is one of the biggest oil exporters of all time, and that is a good thing for Russia as a whole. 
 
Russia is not a threat to the world, but it is a threat to the people of the world. 
 
If you look at the economy of Russia, it is very similar to that of the U.S. dollar, which is much more dependent on oil than it is on oil. 
 
The Russian economy is not the same as the U.S. dollar, but it is the same in terms of production and consumption. 
 
In my opinion, Russia is the most powerful country in the world right now, and it is the most powerful country in the world right now. 
 
It is not surprising at all, but it is very difficult to predict the future of Russia in the near future.

You seem to find this statement paradoxical and meaningless. This indicates the extreme limitation of your consciousness and your inability to see obvious things a little further than your nose. See what happens when a country or alliance imposes economic sanctions on another country. In the short term, both sides suffer from the imposed sanctions - well-established economic ties are torn, the seller loses the sales market, and the buyer loses the opportunity to buy the right product in the usual way and at the same price. It's easy to understand. More interesting things happen next, depending on the type of reaction of the sanctioned country to the imposed sanctions. Let's look at these types of reactions in more detail, with examples.
1. A country may decide that it no longer needs a sanctioned product, is not necessary for normal life, and simply refuse it. For example, from luxury goods. This will lower the quality of life of the population, but not in a critical way. The country that imposed the sanctions will also continue to suffer from the loss of a sales market.
2. The country can establish "parallel imports" of sanctioned goods through intermediaries. For example cars. This will lead to an increase in the cost of sanctioned goods for the population due to more complex logistics and payment for intermediary services. The country that imposed the sanctions will suffer less, because the lost sales market will recover, but not completely - the higher price for end consumers will make goods imported under the parallel import scheme less competitive.
3. The country can establish its own production of sanctioned goods. For example, before the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia was a food importer, and after the sanctions imposed on it, it increased its own production many times over and is now the largest food exporter in the world. Countries that imposed sanctions continued to suffer from the loss of markets.

These types of reactions to economic sanctions can be combined. It is easy to see that a country that imposes economic sanctions, to one degree or another, always continues to suffer from the loss of production volume and sales market. A sanctioned country, on the other hand, suffers only in the short term, and depending on the type of its response to the sanctions imposed against it. And with the right response, in a more or less long-term perspective, external economic sanctions are beneficial for it, helping to develop its own production or forcing it to abandon excesses, moving to a more reasonable and conscious consumption model.

I do not think that the United States, as the initiator and developer of the sanctions campaign against Russia, is so infected with the virus of idiocracy that it does not understand such simple and self-evident things - they understand everything perfectly. The puzzle comes together if we assume that this campaign is directed not primarily against Russia, but against Europe, which is the main victim in this story. At the same time, the United States achieves two goals at once - they temporarily weaken Russia and destroy their main competitor, trying to save their own economy from collapse. Good job.

"Sanctions only benefit us. Enter everything at once!" (c) Putin

  - The Central Bank stated that the withdrawal of cash currency will be limited until it starts arriving in the Russian Federation. Restrictions on the withdrawal of cash in the Russian Federation cannot be lifted due to the fact that it does not enter the country, said Dmitry Tulin, First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
"If someone brings tens, hundreds of billions worth of cash dollars and euros into the country... There are no restrictions (on the import of cash currency - IF). They are not supplied to us, moreover, friendly or neutral states do not welcome their conversion cash currency abroad," Tulin said at a meeting of the working group in the State Duma.

- The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced that it had taken control of three quarters in Bakhmut. The second army of the world, 9 (!!!!) months can not capture 1 small town in Ukraine! SECOND PEACE ARMY ))))

- "Students, sick people, parents of three children are being called in": Russians are receiving massive summonses to go to war with Ukraine.

- Large Russian business was given six months to collect 300 billion rubles for the war. The "voluntary-compulsory" contribution to the budget must be paid by October-November. Otherwise, its size will double.

- The G7 nuclear powers agreed to cut Russia out of the world uranium market. Great Britain, the United States, Canada, Japan and France have created an alliance whose goal is to "undermine Russia's control" over the fuel supply chain for nuclear power plants. Russia has lost customers for hydrocarbons, and now it will also lose the nuclear fuel market

- Things are so good in the Russian economy that "Russian regions are on the brink of a budget crisis: every third entity is faced with a tax shortage. In five regions, there is a complete budget collapse: revenues have fallen by 30-50%."

And my favorite topic is about "unparalleled technologies of Russia, which is the envy of the whole West" ))

An attempt by the Russian aviation industry to establish the production of parts for the engines of SSJ-100 aircraft has reached a dead end.
Although more than a year has passed since the breakup of relations with the French company Safran, Rostec still has not been able to adjust the production of fuel filters, the shortage of which threatens to "ground" the entire fleet of "superjets" in Russia.
There are no engines, no avionics... Just FUEL FILTERS

Yes, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been a point of tension for years, and resulted in various economic sanctions against Russia. These sanctions had a significant impact on the Russian economy, and as a result, the country posted a high deficit. The situation appeared to be deadlocked, with neither side willing to give up. It remains to be seen how the conflict will be resolved, but it is clear that the sanctions will continue to impact the Russian economy.

I think  the impact of sanctions on Russia's economy is a complex issue, and their effectiveness will depend on a variety of factors, including the nature and scope of the sanctions, the resilience of the targeted economy, and the political will of the country being sanctioned to make necessary changes.

After many decades of glorifying its own military power, in Russia, of course, it will not immediately come to terms with a military defeat in Ukraine. In addition, Russian propaganda is still trying to distort the objective situation about the course of this war, and even individual major defeats are passed off as their successes. But if at the beginning of the war Russia demanded that NATO return to the 1997 framework in terms of the number of members of this alliance, then they have even come to terms with the fact that they have an additional 1,300 kilometers of a new NATO border represented by Finland.

Gradually, even ordinary Russians will realize that their nation is not so great and invincible. This will be a great disappointment, which may be accompanied by riots and civil war. Indeed, for the sake of this greatness, they were obliged for a long time to live without normal amenities and endure hardships.

Ukraine will no longer cede its territories. And the propaganda of the Kremlin has already gradually begun to prepare its society for this.

These type of stuff will continue as long as Russia keeps on trying to take land from Ukraine, and not like Ukraine is giving up anytime soon but Russia (or Putin in this case) can't say "oh well we lost, have your lands" and just withdraw from there, it is a do or die situation for them that is slowly becoming die or die.

Either they will accept defat and that would be horrible for them and they will get lesser and lesser sanctions and do better, which they won't because they do not accept defeat, or they will just continue to attack and maybe they will get those lands, but sanctions will be even harder so they won't be winning anything. So there is absolutely no way to get out of this for them, it will just get worse and worse.

This fact is easy to verify.

Well, she has the right to say anything But this is "the assumption of a negative scenario", this is not a fact.
"Of course, China, Russia and Iran have a desire to find an alternative" - and this becomes the RMB, on which China, as a drug dealer, puts Iran, Russia and other "guinea pigs" in order to later become their economic owner


And here are examples of FACTS:

- The share of Russia in space launches in the world has collapsed to a historical minimum. In 2022, Russia made only 22 launches, which is three less than a year earlier. As a result, Russia's share in the global number of launches fell to a historic low of 12%.
This is a fact that is calculated on the basis of data from Roscosmos and the Ministry of Defense

- The State Duma proposed to oblige the Russians to deduct 2 thousand rubles for the war every month. It will become a reality soon

- Deliveries of Russian Urals oil to offshore transshipments (ship-to-ship, STS) off the coast of the EU countries fell sharply in March amid growing concern from European authorities about sanctions restrictions, as well as weakening ice conditions in Russian ports, according to traders and Refinitiv Eikon . Thus, deliveries of Urals to one of the main points for STS operations, near the Greek Kalamata, fell to below 0.3 million tons in March against about 1 million tons per month in January-February.
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/04/03/postavki-rossiyskoy-nefti-urals-na-reydovye-perevalki-v-evrope-upali-v-marte-treydery-refinitiv-a38884

- Two major Western traders announced a boycott of Russian grain

- The Ministry of Defense announced the start of military registration through the "Gosuslugi" contrary to the promise of the State Duma. Haven't you received your summons yet?

- One of the largest banks in the UAE began to block the accounts of Russians. Russia's largest Middle Eastern "offshore", where wealthy citizens massively transferred assets in an attempt to hide from Western sanctions, has ceased to be a "safe haven" for money of Russian origin.
The second largest bank in the United Arab Emirates - Emirates NBD (ENBD) - began to block investment accounts of clients from the Russian Federation, Forbes reports, citing sources familiar with the situation.

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/04/14/odin-iz-krupneishih-bankov-oae-nachal-blokirovat-scheta-rossiyan-a40060

Would the US Treasury Secretary lie? Yellen says sanctions may risk hegemony of US dollar.

Under the howl from the Kremlin, from the words "sanctions are for our benefit, enter everything at once", to hysteria - "cancel the sanctions - it's not fair", we get acquainted "with stability in the Russian way"

- No dollars, no yuan: China refused to import cash into Russia. “Friendly” states, following the “unfriendly” ones, refuse to import cash currency into Russia, Dmitry Tulin, First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, said on Wednesday.
According to him, we are talking, in particular, about the Chinese yuan, whose share in the foreign trade turnover of the economy increased by more than 30 times over the past year.
Although the yuan has become the leader in terms of trading volume on the Moscow Exchange, and China has become Russia's largest trading partner, the Chinese Central Bank, according to Tulin, "does not welcome" the circulation of cash yuan abroad.
As a result, according to the official, the central bank does not have the opportunity to ease restrictions on the withdrawal of cash currency from the accounts of individuals: dollars and euros are prohibited from being imported due to sanctions, and other currencies are also not received.
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/04/05/ni-dollarov-ni-yuanei-kitai-otkazalsya-zavozit-v-rossiyu-nalichnuyu-valyutu-a39198

- The largest recipient of "hidden" loans from China in 2000-2017 was Russia - $125 billion. Loans were received mainly by state-owned oil and gas companies on terms close to the market.

- The largest logistics company in China has stopped shipments to Russia of a number of product categories. OOCL cites sanctions as the reason for the refusal.

- The Central Bank stated the collapse of the inflow of foreign currency into Russia to a minimum for 7 years. The river of energy surpluses that flowed into Russia amid soaring commodity prices continues to rapidly dwindle.

According to the results of the first quarter of 2023, the net inflow of foreign currency into the Russian Federation decreased by almost 4 times, to $18.6 billion - this is the amount the Central Bank estimated the surplus of the current account of the balance of payments (the difference between the main currency flows into and out of the country).

Export revenues sank by a third, to $100.8 billion, while import spending returned to pre-war levels of $71.8 billion. As a result, the foreign trade surplus shrank to $29 billion and was $54 billion less than in January-March last year.
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/04/12/tsb-konstatiroval-obval-pritoka-valyuti-v-rossiyu-do-minimuma-za-7-let-a39832

- And a little selective humor ))

Mishustin demanded to urgently invent technologies instead of Western ones. Russia needs to “ensure a high degree of independence” as soon as possible from foreign technologies and engineering solutions, access to which was closed by sanctions for the war in Ukraine. This was announced by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin on Tuesday, Interfax reports.
https://www.moscowtimes.eu/2023/04/11/mishustin-potreboval-srochno-izobresti-tehnologii-vmesto-zapadnih-a39742

Those. for 20 years of a well-fed life, Russia did not know how to make nails, and the technology of sticking the Moskvich nameplate on a Chinese car became the highest limit of Russian technologies, and then take it and urgently invent everything! Clowns


PS yes. Have you noticed - how have recently been activated, synchronously, "writers" on the topic "the world is abandoning the dollar"?
Moreover, the variability is wide - from "the BRICS countries are abandoning the dollar", to "the WHOLE world is abandoning the dollar" and even - "all countries are draining the dollar and buying gold."
True, when checking "information" it turns out that these are all "wet fantasies"
Guess what it's for? ))