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Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 23. (Read 192914 times)

dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 12, 2013, 07:02:09 PM
#1162
Having checked, there really are over 15000 bets pending settlement, but most of them are below the minimum bet.  I didn't used to count those, but recently accidentally started counting them.

I'll re-ran the script and had it ignore bets under the minimum, and:

"Total of 35 bets unaccounted for."

So that 15k number was including rejected bets.  Oops!

Here's an updated report with data from the most recent blocks:

Quote
Total of 50 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-12 05:01pm (up to block 231055)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   125289 |       3 (0.00002) |  123375 |    1911 |    1540.22 |    3842.18 |   145.08 |  -2301.95 | 249.455
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     8498 |       0 (0.00000) |    7944 |     554 |     128.55 |       0.23 |    22.24 |    128.32 |   0.181
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     9724 |       1 (0.00011) |    9247 |     476 |     146.56 |     160.15 |    14.55 |    -13.59 | 109.273
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    19173 |       5 (0.00027) |   18674 |     494 |     396.91 |     432.83 |    10.13 |    -35.92 | 109.052
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    20703 |       3 (0.00015) |   20235 |     465 |     705.20 |     245.96 |    22.14 |    459.23 |  34.879
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    26397 |      11 (0.00042) |   25968 |     418 |    1470.08 |    1538.14 |     1.46 |    -68.05 | 104.629
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    29009 |      35 (0.00123) |   28468 |     506 |    2108.76 |    1740.00 |   116.93 |    368.75 |  82.513
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21161 |      38 (0.00184) |   20642 |     481 |    2393.93 |    1562.96 |    48.45 |    830.97 |  65.288
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26284 |     114 (0.00441) |   25762 |     408 |    6009.98 |    8656.18 |    13.26 |  -2646.20 | 144.030
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    37827 |     300 (0.00809) |   36790 |     737 |    8340.45 |    6909.70 |    10.15 |   1430.75 |  82.846
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   136146 |    2063 (0.01522) |  133506 |     577 |   41339.52 |   36418.77 |     2.27 |   4920.75 |  88.097
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25779 |     589 (0.02318) |   24819 |     371 |    7969.63 |    8562.65 |    15.13 |   -593.01 | 107.441
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    86849 |    2653 (0.03069) |   83789 |     407 |   41132.39 |   36727.29 |     9.40 |   4405.10 |  89.290
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30521 |    1395 (0.04643) |   28647 |     479 |    9822.75 |   10641.67 |    25.37 |   -818.91 | 108.337
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    36508 |    2238 (0.06199) |   33864 |     406 |    7737.33 |    7525.75 |    31.41 |    211.57 |  97.266
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    51626 |    4697 (0.09187) |   46427 |     502 |   16851.83 |   18463.96 |     7.47 |  -1612.13 | 109.567
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   200471 |   24508 (0.12259) |  175411 |     552 |   96575.62 |   95439.60 |   100.65 |   1136.02 |  98.824
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   112003 |   20413 (0.18325) |   90981 |     609 |  175868.73 |  176843.40 |  3315.13 |   -974.66 | 100.554
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   277585 |   67656 (0.24429) |  209295 |     634 |  373912.85 |  360285.16 |  2322.72 |  13627.69 |  96.355
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   269993 |   99045 (0.36771) |  170313 |     635 |  591873.36 |  583076.87 |  1013.41 |   8796.49 |  98.514
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1185389 |  577638 (0.48804) |  605948 |    1803 |  908206.39 |  890012.68 |  2925.51 |  18193.71 |  97.997
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   669868 |  333954 (0.49956) |  334544 |    1370 |  684831.19 |  667818.36 |  6522.15 |  17012.83 |  97.516
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   383543 |  281386 (0.73515) |  101372 |     785 |  308665.36 |  301499.77 |  6172.43 |   7165.58 |  97.679
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    86727 |   68381 (0.79405) |   17736 |     610 |   64771.05 |   63335.84 |  1187.87 |   1435.20 |  97.784
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    78275 |   66492 (0.85682) |   11111 |     672 |   81816.99 |   81030.58 |   400.88 |    786.40 |  99.039
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   123863 |  112813 (0.91607) |   10336 |     714 |   75298.70 |   74197.17 |     1.21 |   1101.52 |  98.537
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    20366 |   18558 (0.97952) |     388 |    1420 |   24873.48 |   24456.07 |   240.67 |    417.41 |  98.322
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3978956 | 1630398           | 2329856 |   18702 |  822457.73 |  807902.60 |   291.97 |  14555.13 |  98.230
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   120621 |   54591           |   65736 |     294 | 2712330.20 | 2653521.45 | 24406.21 |  58808.75 |  97.832
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4099577 | 1684989           | 2395592 |   18996 | 3534787.94 | 3461424.05 | 24698.18 |  73363.88 |  97.925
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      73363.88985134 BTC (2.075%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3316.70557500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       70047.18427634 BTC (1.982%)
Pending Liabilities:           43.74421794 BTC
Final SD Profit:            70003.44005840 BTC (1.980%)
Profit This Month:           2160.51349078 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13154500  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7521380  (57.2%)
Blockchain MB:   5727.0  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3101.6  (54.2%)



jborkl
sr. member
Activity: 246
Merit: 250
Team Heritage Motorsports
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 12, 2013, 02:35:01 PM
#1161
I placed a bet earlier, it went right through and was returned properly. It showed up in the stats also
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 12, 2013, 01:56:23 PM
#1160
Quote from: bitpop on April 11, 2013, 08:25:18 PM
Are they even beginning to process pending transactions? At this point, it's a GREAT take and run opportunity.

I don't think they stopped processing transactions.  They've just been processing them much slower than people have been betting.

I'm wondering whether the 15k bets 'unaccounted for' is an error in my script.  I'm checking into it now.

Quote
Total of 15185 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-12 11:51am (up to block 231019)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   125136 |       3 (0.00002) |  123224 |    1909 |    1538.56 |    3842.17 |   145.08 |  -2303.60 | 249.724
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     7694 |       0 (0.00000) |    7140 |     554 |     120.50 |       0.19 |    22.24 |    120.31 |   0.159
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     9722 |       1 (0.00011) |    9245 |     476 |     146.53 |     160.15 |    14.55 |    -13.62 | 109.295
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    19171 |       5 (0.00027) |   18672 |     494 |     396.89 |     432.83 |    10.13 |    -35.94 | 109.057
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    20698 |       3 (0.00015) |   20230 |     465 |     705.15 |     245.96 |    22.14 |    459.18 |  34.881
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    26392 |      11 (0.00042) |   25963 |     418 |    1470.03 |    1538.14 |     1.46 |    -68.10 | 104.633
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    29004 |      35 (0.00123) |   28464 |     505 |    2108.72 |    1740.00 |   116.93 |    368.71 |  82.515
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21158 |      38 (0.00184) |   20639 |     481 |    2393.90 |    1562.96 |    48.45 |    830.93 |  65.289
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26276 |     114 (0.00441) |   25754 |     408 |    6009.85 |    8656.18 |    13.26 |  -2646.33 | 144.033
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    37803 |     300 (0.00809) |   36766 |     737 |    8339.25 |    6909.69 |    10.15 |   1429.56 |  82.857
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   136093 |    2062 (0.01522) |  133454 |     577 |   41338.60 |   36418.13 |     2.27 |   4920.47 |  88.097
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25778 |     589 (0.02318) |   24818 |     371 |    7969.62 |    8562.65 |    15.13 |   -593.02 | 107.441
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    86733 |    2648 (0.03067) |   83678 |     407 |   41128.91 |   36725.67 |     9.40 |   4403.24 |  89.294
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30514 |    1395 (0.04644) |   28641 |     478 |    9822.67 |   10641.67 |    25.36 |   -818.99 | 108.338
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    36507 |    2238 (0.06199) |   33863 |     406 |    7737.31 |    7525.75 |    31.41 |    211.55 |  97.266
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    51597 |    4695 (0.09189) |   46400 |     502 |   16849.96 |   18463.63 |     7.47 |  -1613.67 | 109.577
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   200252 |   24481 (0.12259) |  175220 |     551 |   96562.28 |   95433.83 |   100.65 |   1128.44 |  98.831
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   111919 |   20399 (0.18326) |   90911 |     609 |  175862.45 |  176839.85 |  3315.13 |   -977.39 | 100.556
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   277407 |   67612 (0.24429) |  209161 |     634 |  373875.09 |  360273.75 |  2322.72 |  13601.33 |  96.362
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   269642 |   98935 (0.36778) |  170072 |     635 |  591807.58 |  583042.84 |  1013.41 |   8764.74 |  98.519
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1184936 |  577436 (0.48806) |  605700 |    1800 |  908122.34 |  889927.89 |  2925.50 |  18194.44 |  97.996
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   669412 |  333726 (0.49956) |  334320 |    1366 |  684677.21 |  667699.72 |  6522.14 |  16977.48 |  97.520
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   383296 |  281210 (0.73516) |  101303 |     783 |  308632.78 |  301468.61 |  6172.42 |   7164.16 |  97.679
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    86661 |   68324 (0.79399) |   17727 |     610 |   64766.65 |   63330.98 |  1187.87 |   1435.67 |  97.783
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    78209 |   66433 (0.85679) |   11104 |     672 |   81809.13 |   81022.14 |   400.88 |    786.99 |  99.038
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   123712 |  112686 (0.91615) |   10313 |     713 |   75278.03 |   74178.45 |     1.21 |   1099.57 |  98.539
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    20341 |   18538 (0.97950) |     388 |    1415 |   24871.78 |   24454.36 |   240.66 |    417.41 |  98.322
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3975462 | 1629333           | 2327447 |   18682 |  822135.04 |  807662.48 |   291.92 |  14472.56 |  98.240
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   120601 |   54584           |   65723 |     294 | 2712206.85 | 2653435.85 | 24406.21 |  58770.99 |  97.833
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4096063 | 1683917           | 2393170 |   18976 | 3534341.90 | 3461098.33 | 24698.14 |  73243.56 |  97.928
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      73243.56522736 BTC (2.072%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3313.00317500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       69930.56205236 BTC (1.979%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            69930.56205236 BTC (1.979%)
Profit This Month:           2087.63548474 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13139978  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7515600  (57.2%)
Blockchain MB:   5720.8  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3099.2  (54.2%)



Zaih
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 11, 2013, 09:29:23 PM
#1159
Seems like business has rly slowed don for S.Dice. the expected profit is pretty straight. I woulda thought it would be going crazy right now with people trying to make back losses Tongue

And I don't see how people can be worried about the pending payments. There's no doubt that it will be sorted out really soon.
bitpop
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 1060
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 11, 2013, 08:25:18 PM
#1158
Are they even beginning to process pending transactions? At this point, it's a GREAT take and run opportunity.
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 11, 2013, 03:46:02 PM
#1157
The 'pending liabilities' code is still disabled due to the large amount of pending bets.  I'll leave it off until the number gets sane again.

Quote
Total of 15147 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-11 12:35pm (up to block 230856)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   124367 |       3 (0.00002) |  122458 |    1906 |    1528.75 |    3842.12 |   145.07 |  -2313.37 | 251.325
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     7473 |       0 (0.00000) |    6919 |     554 |     118.22 |       0.18 |    22.24 |    118.04 |   0.153
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     9349 |       1 (0.00011) |    8873 |     475 |     142.58 |     160.13 |    14.55 |    -17.54 | 112.306
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    19152 |       5 (0.00027) |   18653 |     494 |     396.63 |     432.83 |    10.13 |    -36.20 | 109.128
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    20469 |       2 (0.00010) |   20003 |     464 |     702.68 |     205.97 |    22.14 |    496.71 |  29.313
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    25963 |      11 (0.00043) |   25534 |     418 |    1465.55 |    1538.11 |     1.46 |    -72.56 | 104.951
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    28970 |      35 (0.00123) |   28430 |     505 |    2107.95 |    1740.00 |   116.93 |    367.95 |  82.545
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21141 |      38 (0.00184) |   20622 |     481 |    2393.57 |    1562.96 |    48.45 |    830.60 |  65.298
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26240 |     114 (0.00441) |   25719 |     407 |    6008.20 |    8656.18 |    13.25 |  -2647.97 | 144.073
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    37686 |     300 (0.00812) |   36649 |     737 |    8336.82 |    6909.68 |    10.15 |   1427.14 |  82.881
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   135827 |    2055 (0.01519) |  133198 |     574 |   41327.41 |   36407.84 |     2.26 |   4919.57 |  88.096
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25757 |     588 (0.02316) |   24799 |     370 |    7969.10 |    8562.22 |    15.13 |   -593.11 | 107.443
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    86549 |    2645 (0.03071) |   83497 |     407 |   41102.14 |   36724.58 |     9.40 |   4377.56 |  89.350
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30475 |    1392 (0.04640) |   28605 |     478 |    9821.57 |   10640.89 |    25.36 |   -819.31 | 108.342
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    36448 |    2234 (0.06198) |   33808 |     406 |    7736.26 |    7524.71 |    31.41 |    211.55 |  97.265
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    51463 |    4682 (0.09187) |   46281 |     500 |   16842.63 |   18455.68 |     7.47 |  -1613.05 | 109.577
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   200043 |   24450 (0.12256) |  175044 |     549 |   96436.43 |   95216.75 |   100.64 |   1219.67 |  98.735
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   111554 |   20336 (0.18329) |   90612 |     606 |  175814.60 |  176796.82 |  3315.13 |   -982.21 | 100.559
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   276674 |   67430 (0.24427) |  208617 |     627 |  373554.63 |  359522.84 |  2322.68 |  14031.79 |  96.244
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   268701 |   98586 (0.36776) |  169483 |     632 |  590921.83 |  582712.94 |  1013.38 |   8208.89 |  98.611
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1183532 |  576763 (0.48806) |  604972 |    1797 |  907773.46 |  889545.33 |  2925.48 |  18228.13 |  97.992
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   667872 |  332958 (0.49955) |  333554 |    1360 |  683820.40 |  666782.17 |  6522.13 |  17038.22 |  97.508
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   382075 |  280286 (0.73509) |  101010 |     779 |  308480.42 |  301347.30 |  6172.39 |   7133.11 |  97.688
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    86273 |   68016 (0.79395) |   17652 |     605 |   64713.21 |   63278.98 |  1187.85 |   1434.23 |  97.784
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    77977 |   66247 (0.85692) |   11061 |     669 |   81756.47 |   80966.23 |   400.88 |    790.24 |  99.033
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   122911 |  111964 (0.91613) |   10250 |     697 |   75207.40 |   74109.47 |     1.12 |   1097.92 |  98.540
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    20215 |   18435 (0.97949) |     386 |    1394 |   24866.88 |   24449.55 |   240.63 |    417.32 |  98.322
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3964674 | 1625050           | 2321027 |   18597 |  821037.80 |  806538.20 |   291.62 |  14499.59 |  98.234
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   120482 |   54526           |   65662 |     294 | 2710308.14 | 2651554.38 | 24406.21 |  58753.75 |  97.832
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4085156 | 1679576           | 2386689 |   18891 | 3531345.94 | 3458092.59 | 24697.83 |  73253.35 |  97.926
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      73253.35290889 BTC (2.074%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3301.50937500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       69951.84353389 BTC (1.981%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            69951.84353389 BTC (1.981%)
Profit This Month:           2108.91696627 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13083326  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7495803  (57.3%)
Blockchain MB:   5694.3  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3091.0  (54.3%)



phantomcircuit
sr. member
Activity: 463
Merit: 252
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 11, 2013, 02:55:43 PM
#1156
Quote from: ?? on ??
Feel compelled to chime in here.

When it comes to gambling companies, there is literally NO other big ($10,000,000+) gambling company out there as transparent and inherently honest, as Satoshi Dice.  Can you think of any other company where their profits are so clearly defined, down to the satoshi?  Doubt it.

Don't come in here and start dumping the "it's a scam" on us, it's slander.  Yesterday was a CRAZY day in the Bitcoin world, so of course there'll be transaction delays.  Those who won, will get paid, those who didn't, won't.  Just like any other bet!

Quote from: ?? on ??
What I'm worried about is that they're directing their efforts elsewhere.

As an S.DICE investor, why would they expand their service, when they can just as easily make a new one, and startup an investment fund around their new service, leaving the S.DICE investors to fester in what they originally invested in, S.DICE.

So, Abu22, I am irritiated, yes.
DutchBrat
hero member
Activity: 868
Merit: 1000
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 11, 2013, 02:29:57 PM
#1155
Quote from: dooglus on April 11, 2013, 02:18:18 PM
Quote from: MPOE-PR on April 11, 2013, 11:08:01 AM
Are you the guy in the pic?

Are you?

I know you are  Grin
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 11, 2013, 02:18:18 PM
#1154
Quote from: MPOE-PR on April 11, 2013, 11:08:01 AM
Are you the guy in the pic?

Are you?
MPOE-PR
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 522
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 11, 2013, 11:08:01 AM
#1153
Quote from: bitpop on April 10, 2013, 09:41:48 PM
Damn almost time to give them the scammer tag!!

Are you the guy in the pic?
ErebusBat
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
I am the one who knocks
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 11, 2013, 08:35:17 AM
#1152
Quote from: deadweasel on April 11, 2013, 07:37:48 AM
It will be sorted and people will be paid.  Cool thing about S.Dice is that it's all public record -- their ledger is the blockchain. 
Yes... very hard to label them scammers.

Also we can see their profit and we know that it would not be in their best interest to start scamming.  They will make more money by being honest than by scamming, and there is no better motivator.
pizzaman1337
newbie
Activity: 37
Merit: 0
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 11, 2013, 07:51:23 AM
#1151
Quote from: dooglus on April 10, 2013, 09:21:20 PM
15.6k bets unaccounted for!


dooglus, I'm sure this has been asked before somewhere in this 50+ page thread, but have you made your script that calculates these stats publicly available?
deadweasel
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 11, 2013, 07:37:48 AM
#1150
Quote from: bitpop on April 10, 2013, 09:41:48 PM
Damn almost time to give them the scammer tag!!

Txns were taking forever yesterday, how do you expect them to keep up when the bet txns don't even confirm for 19 hours?

It will be sorted and people will be paid.  Cool thing about S.Dice is that it's all public record -- their ledger is the blockchain. 
bitpop
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 1060
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 10, 2013, 09:41:48 PM
#1149
Damn almost time to give them the scammer tag!!
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 10, 2013, 09:21:20 PM
#1148
15.6k bets unaccounted for!

Quote
Total of 15659 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-10 07:05pm (up to block 230738)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   123294 |       3 (0.00002) |  121385 |    1906 |    1515.85 |    3842.06 |   145.07 |  -2326.20 | 253.458
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     7447 |       0 (0.00000) |    6893 |     554 |     117.84 |       0.17 |    22.24 |    117.66 |   0.152
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     9315 |       1 (0.00011) |    8839 |     475 |     142.03 |     160.13 |    14.55 |    -18.09 | 112.739
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    19136 |       5 (0.00027) |   18638 |     493 |     396.37 |     432.83 |    10.13 |    -36.46 | 109.200
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    20410 |       2 (0.00010) |   19944 |     464 |     701.88 |     205.97 |    22.14 |    495.91 |  29.346
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    25619 |      11 (0.00044) |   25190 |     418 |    1461.68 |    1538.09 |     1.46 |    -76.41 | 105.228
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    28906 |      35 (0.00123) |   28367 |     504 |    2105.39 |    1739.99 |   116.93 |    365.40 |  82.644
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21112 |      38 (0.00184) |   20593 |     481 |    2392.82 |    1562.95 |    48.45 |    829.86 |  65.319
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26208 |     114 (0.00442) |   25687 |     407 |    6007.66 |    8656.17 |    13.25 |  -2648.51 | 144.086
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    37617 |     300 (0.00813) |   36580 |     737 |    8334.82 |    6909.67 |    10.15 |   1425.14 |  82.901
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   135648 |    2052 (0.01519) |  133022 |     574 |   41322.96 |   36403.34 |     2.26 |   4919.62 |  88.095
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25732 |     588 (0.02318) |   24774 |     370 |    7968.67 |    8562.21 |    15.13 |   -593.54 | 107.448
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    86430 |    2644 (0.03074) |   83380 |     406 |   41091.37 |   36723.88 |     9.39 |   4367.48 |  89.371
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30443 |    1389 (0.04635) |   28576 |     478 |    9819.63 |   10640.24 |    25.36 |   -820.61 | 108.357
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    36419 |    2233 (0.06201) |   33780 |     406 |    7735.47 |    7524.55 |    31.41 |    210.92 |  97.273
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    51383 |    4674 (0.09186) |   46209 |     500 |   16838.28 |   18453.12 |     7.47 |  -1614.83 | 109.590
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   199822 |   24424 (0.12257) |  174849 |     549 |   96381.17 |   95207.83 |   100.64 |   1173.33 |  98.783
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   111073 |   20249 (0.18330) |   90218 |     606 |  175778.96 |  176769.27 |  3315.13 |   -990.30 | 100.563
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   276063 |   67262 (0.24420) |  208174 |     627 |  373498.00 |  359470.69 |  2322.68 |  14027.31 |  96.244
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   268309 |   98434 (0.36773) |  169243 |     632 |  590882.93 |  582666.75 |  1013.38 |   8216.17 |  98.610
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1182681 |  576338 (0.48806) |  604546 |    1797 |  907570.48 |  889251.25 |  2925.48 |  18319.23 |  97.982
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   666578 |  332324 (0.49957) |  332899 |    1355 |  683501.22 |  666459.31 |  6522.10 |  17041.91 |  97.507
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   381321 |  279717 (0.73505) |  100825 |     779 |  308432.17 |  301299.62 |  6172.39 |   7132.54 |  97.687
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    86053 |   67842 (0.79396) |   17606 |     605 |   64682.25 |   63245.52 |  1187.85 |   1436.73 |  97.779
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    77753 |   66058 (0.85693) |   11029 |     666 |   81740.59 |   80951.20 |   400.87 |    789.39 |  99.034
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   122339 |  111449 (0.91619) |   10195 |     695 |   75164.95 |   74069.81 |     1.12 |   1095.14 |  98.543
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    20137 |   18360 (0.97946) |     385 |    1392 |   24861.46 |   24444.14 |   240.63 |    417.32 |  98.321
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3956801 | 1622037           | 2316182 |   18582 |  820480.65 |  806035.85 |   291.57 |  14444.80 |  98.239
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   120447 |   54509           |   65644 |     294 | 2709966.40 | 2651155.04 | 24406.21 |  58811.35 |  97.830
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4077248 | 1676546           | 2381826 |   18876 | 3530447.06 | 3457190.90 | 24697.79 |  73256.15 |  97.925
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      73256.15592801 BTC (2.075%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3293.21397500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       69962.94195301 BTC (1.982%)
Profit This Month:           2120.01538539 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13036018  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7481433  (57.4%)
Blockchain MB:   5670.5  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3085.1  (54.4%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 10, 2013, 08:22:35 PM
#1147
Quote from: dooglus on April 09, 2013, 02:40:19 PM
Lots of unprocessed bets, and my script timed out getting the result for many of them too, so there's lots of scope for error here.

Quote
Total of 771 bets unaccounted for.

I'm not sure yet how many bets are unaccounted for today, but the satoshidice site is so slow that my script has been hung for hours trying to look up the results for the bets which didn't get paid out yet.

I've changed the script to ignore those bets so at least I'll get to post a report today, without adding further strain to the site which is clearly already under attack.
bitpop
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 1060
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 10, 2013, 06:58:49 PM
#1146
Many of my bets are stuck. This is starting to become a scam.
kidgorgeous
member
Activity: 75
Merit: 10
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 10, 2013, 05:42:21 PM
#1145
What is up with the processing times on the bets?! Part of the appeal of SD is that people find out and get paid quickly. I'm seeing bets (winning and losing) only come back after 100+ confirmations
thoughtfan
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 506
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 09, 2013, 05:58:56 PM
#1144
Wow, since big whale 1 went away that 1.9% edge line has to be the steadiest and least volatile line on any chart that has anything to do with Bitcoin!

As long as it remains even a tiny bit up week on week I'm happy with the price I paid for my stock even if others are now able to buy rights to the same dividends as me for much less.
organofcorti
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
April 09, 2013, 05:01:27 PM
#1143
Quote from: ?? on ??
hey dooglus, thanks for all the updates.

Just curious, do you have any stakes in Satoshi Dice, or do you do this out of your own personal interest?

Cheers-
ar9

This, again?

dooglus may start having to display a disclaimer on his charts.
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