Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 22. (Read 192914 times)

It looks like we have a whale playing.  Check out the slope of the red line over the last couple of days.  He seems to switch addresses.  1KYS3HyeDUt467hnRpzF7WHyvgr861MnL4 and then 12N3m1zR6dkovEZ8fP9LkZkbgtKVX6iGwd.

See also this previously-unseen address:

The thing is, SDICE doesn't pay 1.9% per year, it pays 1.9% per bet, on average.

So far, they've been running for less than a year, and have taken around 3.6 million BTC in bets.

The share price is somewhere around 0.00368, and there are 100 million shares.

That means their market cap is around 360k BTC.

So in less than a year, they've taken 10 times their market cap in bets, and so are expected to have profited about 19% of their market cap, not 1.9%.

Does your bank pay 19% per year?

Your bank pays you 1.9% on every transaction? Even with bad months, and splitting profits 100m ways, SDICE probly pays better interest than anything your bank offers...

Can someone remind me why we care about the 1.9% margin? I mean, if I wanted to make 1.9%, on average, for a term of say one year, then I might as well keep my fiat in the bank and not assume the risks associated with the stock price or SD being out-competed. Not to mention the risk associated with BTC/USD rate that apparently influences SD share price.

Everybody knows there are no girls on the internet.

Recent big wins, accounting for the reduction in monthly profit:

https://blockchain.info/tx-index/66272384?show_adv=true
https://blockchain.info/tx-index/66290582?show_adv=true
https://blockchain.info/tx-index/66338492?show_adv=true
https://blockchain.info/tx-index/66344759?show_adv=true

The whales certainly distorted things. Would be great to have them back though.

I am the gal in the pic, yes.

Thanks both.  That clears that one up for me and is affirmed by looking at the upper chart of dooglus's pair for the same time frames where we can see the 1.9% edge line showing proportionally the same jumps over the same time periods.  I was under the understanding however that the primary reason for the massive drop after Feb was more to do with the disappearance of a 'whale' rather than anything to do with usd/btc.  But maybe ThickAsThieves, your assumtion has some merit in explaining the halving in revenue between the latter pair of periods.  This is not as obvious just by looking at the charts - which lazily has been my means of keeping tabs on how my investment is doing.

The following is the amount of "BTC In" for SatoshiDice.com for four 4-week periods:   
   BTC IN
Jan 16th   1992532
Feb 13th   1174083
Mar 13th   240936
Apr 9th   121371

Hi! I am very much a beginner myself, but one thought would be to look at running a custom algorithm development system. This would be helpful if you expect to see the effects between many other variables that may be useful.

I don't think so.  I think you're both looking at much the same thing, in that they're both indicators of the bet volume rather than the (short term) profitability.

The sums provided are all-time cumulative. You need to do some math to compare changes in BTC In over time. More hints: Compare the daily BTC In from the last 2 or 3 reports. Then compare the BTC In for the last four 4-week periods. Then realize that SDICE income is highly tied to BTC/USD.

If I've understood this right the 1.9 edge figure reflects the "BTC In" sum and the 1.9% line on the chart showing pretty flat tells me that 'BTC In' in is also pretty flat.  Have I missed something here?

You both don't see it because you aren't looking in the right place. Hint: "BTC In"

I think people wanted cash on hand so if the bubble got too crazy they'd be able to cash out at the top.  That drove the price down.  Now that the bubble seems to be over, people would rather invest than hold cash.

Yes, I'm not seeing that happening either - especially given that many will have bought them at a much higher price than today.  My guess is they might treat them with a little more care.  However there's always the new influx which I still suspect make up the majority of plays.

Also we can't necessarily expect - even were people to play with their bitcoins more fast and loose - for that in any particular month to be reflected in the profit and subsequent dividend.  What matters more to me is the ultra-steady 1.9% edge line because that's indicative of longer term profits and this month - the last few days in particular- have shown it getting pretty close to flat.

However I'm tending to believe evoorhees when he says there's stuff going on behind the scenes on the development/advertising front so we may well be seeing that on a more significant rise again soon.

As an aside, does anybody know of any fundamental reason the stocks are on the rise again?  I suspect unless we see a large dump bringing it back down it is because those who were taking their time over a couple of weeks dumping every recovery have finally reduced their holding sufficiently to stop, thereby allowing the demand that had never quite disappeared, to have their effect on price, thus encouraging others who had been waiting to see if it would bottom out do do likewise.

Either way, on all counts I have nothing to complain about and will just use this opportunity to thank dooglus once more for continuing to provide this data in visual form   Cheers

It was the same price or less for all of march ! didn't see people make large bet in march  !?

Expect it to look a lot better in coming days. With BTC value lowering, people will make larger/more BTC bets.

This number looks better with each report.