I'd like a regular "Whale watch" from you DC. That was quite a nice psychological analysis.
+1
This thread needs a bit more entertainment content- but this is absolutely no criticism of your sterling work, dooglus!
Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 22. (Read 192896 times)
+1
This thread needs a bit more entertainment content- but this is absolutely no criticism of your sterling work, dooglus!
Lmao
I'd like a regular "Whale watch" from you DC. That was quite a nice psychological analysis.
Nice
It looks like we have a whale playing. Check out the slope of the red line over the last couple of days. He seems to switch addresses. 1KYS3HyeDUt467hnRpzF7WHyvgr861MnL4 and then 12N3m1zR6dkovEZ8fP9LkZkbgtKVX6iGwd.
See also this previously-unseen address:
See also this previously-unseen address:
Quote
Tue Apr 16 00:15:55 2013 <48000 231540 e62cc0f45f9fffef:0 1Eq9eBs8sfTbzKxk2oHLBRhHP4n5nmVJmQ BET 10.00000000 LOSE -9.95000000
Tue Apr 16 00:15:55 2013 <48000 231540 88027c2479b0743c:0 1Eq9eBs8sfTbzKxk2oHLBRhHP4n5nmVJmQ BET 10.00000000 WIN 3.37565333
Tue Apr 16 00:15:55 2013 <60000 231540 bdf7b00bd74da64a:0 1Eq9eBs8sfTbzKxk2oHLBRhHP4n5nmVJmQ BET 100.00000000 WIN 7.10522666
Tue Apr 16 00:15:55 2013 <60000 231540 161341214afd56ce:0 1Eq9eBs8sfTbzKxk2oHLBRhHP4n5nmVJmQ BET 93.00000000 WIN 6.60786080
Tue Apr 16 01:23:26 2013 <48000 231552 203afff224e2c108:0 1Eq9eBs8sfTbzKxk2oHLBRhHP4n5nmVJmQ BET 213.00000000 WIN 71.90141600
Tue Apr 16 01:54:23 2013 <48000 231563 a82e3c26d2b59778:0 1Eq9eBs8sfTbzKxk2oHLBRhHP4n5nmVJmQ BET 311.00000000 LOSE -309.44500000
Tue Apr 16 00:15:55 2013 <48000 231540 88027c2479b0743c:0 1Eq9eBs8sfTbzKxk2oHLBRhHP4n5nmVJmQ BET 10.00000000 WIN 3.37565333
Tue Apr 16 00:15:55 2013 <60000 231540 bdf7b00bd74da64a:0 1Eq9eBs8sfTbzKxk2oHLBRhHP4n5nmVJmQ BET 100.00000000 WIN 7.10522666
Tue Apr 16 00:15:55 2013 <60000 231540 161341214afd56ce:0 1Eq9eBs8sfTbzKxk2oHLBRhHP4n5nmVJmQ BET 93.00000000 WIN 6.60786080
Tue Apr 16 01:23:26 2013 <48000 231552 203afff224e2c108:0 1Eq9eBs8sfTbzKxk2oHLBRhHP4n5nmVJmQ BET 213.00000000 WIN 71.90141600
Tue Apr 16 01:54:23 2013 <48000 231563 a82e3c26d2b59778:0 1Eq9eBs8sfTbzKxk2oHLBRhHP4n5nmVJmQ BET 311.00000000 LOSE -309.44500000
Quote
Total of 53 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Apr-15 10:50pm (up to block 231594)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 127662 | 3 (0.00002) | 125691 | 1968 | 1586.63 | 3842.41 | 148.50 | -2255.77 | 242.174
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 10371 | 0 (0.00000) | 9813 | 558 | 148.26 | 0.33 | 22.55 | 147.93 | 0.223
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 9833 | 1 (0.00011) | 9350 | 482 | 149.34 | 160.17 | 14.96 | -10.82 | 107.252
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 22654 | 5 (0.00023) | 22150 | 499 | 540.34 | 433.55 | 10.13 | 106.79 | 80.236
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 23039 | 4 (0.00018) | 22564 | 471 | 829.11 | 566.40 | 22.15 | 262.71 | 68.314
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 28233 | 13 (0.00047) | 27799 | 421 | 1589.52 | 1830.57 | 1.48 | -241.04 | 115.165
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 29309 | 35 (0.00122) | 28764 | 510 | 2122.63 | 1740.07 | 116.94 | 382.55 | 81.977
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 21289 | 38 (0.00183) | 20765 | 486 | 2397.36 | 1562.98 | 48.46 | 834.38 | 65.196
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 26453 | 114 (0.00438) | 25925 | 414 | 6016.53 | 8656.22 | 13.27 | -2639.68 | 143.874
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 38405 | 305 (0.00810) | 37352 | 748 | 8380.03 | 6938.88 | 10.18 | 1441.15 | 82.803
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 138598 | 2101 (0.01522) | 135903 | 594 | 42496.02 | 36890.92 | 2.36 | 5605.10 | 86.810
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 25945 | 595 (0.02327) | 24974 | 376 | 7977.74 | 8575.80 | 15.15 | -598.05 | 107.497
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 88394 | 2702 (0.03071) | 85280 | 412 | 43139.27 | 38547.21 | 9.41 | 4592.06 | 89.355
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 30710 | 1403 (0.04641) | 28826 | 481 | 9839.12 | 10648.34 | 25.38 | -809.21 | 108.224
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 36700 | 2252 (0.06205) | 34039 | 409 | 7743.68 | 7532.80 | 31.41 | 210.88 | 97.277
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 52128 | 4739 (0.09181) | 46877 | 512 | 16943.89 | 18482.96 | 7.51 | -1539.07 | 109.083
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 202474 | 24754 (0.12260) | 177152 | 568 | 99903.82 | 99327.95 | 100.71 | 575.86 | 99.424
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 114214 | 20851 (0.18356) | 92742 | 621 | 178830.61 | 180334.46 | 3315.16 | -1503.85 | 100.841
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 280216 | 68261 (0.24417) | 211298 | 657 | 376394.37 | 362647.74 | 2322.80 | 13746.63 | 96.348
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 273012 | 100110 (0.36756) | 172255 | 647 | 593006.75 | 584182.71 | 1013.46 | 8824.03 | 98.512
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1192670 | 581165 (0.48803) | 609670 | 1835 | 909908.28 | 891821.69 | 2925.63 | 18086.59 | 98.012
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 676896 | 337417 (0.49955) | 338030 | 1449 | 687558.91 | 670366.54 | 6522.44 | 17192.36 | 97.500
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 388700 | 285163 (0.73517) | 102722 | 815 | 309716.22 | 302291.85 | 6172.55 | 7424.37 | 97.603
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 88170 | 69520 (0.79416) | 18019 | 631 | 64944.55 | 63521.31 | 1187.93 | 1423.23 | 97.809
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 79768 | 67744 (0.85677) | 11325 | 699 | 82089.21 | 81299.25 | 400.97 | 789.95 | 99.038
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 127125 | 115770 (0.91617) | 10593 | 762 | 75884.40 | 74799.67 | 1.41 | 1084.73 | 98.571
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 21047 | 19138 (0.97923) | 406 | 1503 | 24946.57 | 24528.43 | 240.80 | 418.13 | 98.324
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 4032121 | 1649308 | 2363579 | 19234 | 827361.64 | 812924.53 | 297.62 | 14437.11 | 98.255
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 121894 | 54895 | 66705 | 294 | 2727721.67 | 2668606.79 | 24406.21 | 59114.87 | 97.833
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 4154015 | 1704203 | 2430284 | 19528 | 3555083.31 | 3481531.33 | 24703.84 | 73551.98 | 97.931
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 73551.98608776 BTC (2.069%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 3374.17117500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 70177.81491276 BTC (1.974%)
Pending Liabilities: 1.64050944 BTC
Final SD Profit: 70176.17440332 BTC (1.974%)
Profit This Month: 2333.24783570 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13338587 : SatoshiDice Tx: 7611534 (57.1%)
Blockchain MB: 5810.7 : SatoshiDice MB: 3141.1 (54.1%)
Results: 2013-Apr-15 10:50pm (up to block 231594)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 127662 | 3 (0.00002) | 125691 | 1968 | 1586.63 | 3842.41 | 148.50 | -2255.77 | 242.174
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 10371 | 0 (0.00000) | 9813 | 558 | 148.26 | 0.33 | 22.55 | 147.93 | 0.223
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 9833 | 1 (0.00011) | 9350 | 482 | 149.34 | 160.17 | 14.96 | -10.82 | 107.252
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 22654 | 5 (0.00023) | 22150 | 499 | 540.34 | 433.55 | 10.13 | 106.79 | 80.236
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 23039 | 4 (0.00018) | 22564 | 471 | 829.11 | 566.40 | 22.15 | 262.71 | 68.314
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 28233 | 13 (0.00047) | 27799 | 421 | 1589.52 | 1830.57 | 1.48 | -241.04 | 115.165
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 29309 | 35 (0.00122) | 28764 | 510 | 2122.63 | 1740.07 | 116.94 | 382.55 | 81.977
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 21289 | 38 (0.00183) | 20765 | 486 | 2397.36 | 1562.98 | 48.46 | 834.38 | 65.196
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 26453 | 114 (0.00438) | 25925 | 414 | 6016.53 | 8656.22 | 13.27 | -2639.68 | 143.874
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 38405 | 305 (0.00810) | 37352 | 748 | 8380.03 | 6938.88 | 10.18 | 1441.15 | 82.803
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 138598 | 2101 (0.01522) | 135903 | 594 | 42496.02 | 36890.92 | 2.36 | 5605.10 | 86.810
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 25945 | 595 (0.02327) | 24974 | 376 | 7977.74 | 8575.80 | 15.15 | -598.05 | 107.497
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 88394 | 2702 (0.03071) | 85280 | 412 | 43139.27 | 38547.21 | 9.41 | 4592.06 | 89.355
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 30710 | 1403 (0.04641) | 28826 | 481 | 9839.12 | 10648.34 | 25.38 | -809.21 | 108.224
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 36700 | 2252 (0.06205) | 34039 | 409 | 7743.68 | 7532.80 | 31.41 | 210.88 | 97.277
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 52128 | 4739 (0.09181) | 46877 | 512 | 16943.89 | 18482.96 | 7.51 | -1539.07 | 109.083
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 202474 | 24754 (0.12260) | 177152 | 568 | 99903.82 | 99327.95 | 100.71 | 575.86 | 99.424
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 114214 | 20851 (0.18356) | 92742 | 621 | 178830.61 | 180334.46 | 3315.16 | -1503.85 | 100.841
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 280216 | 68261 (0.24417) | 211298 | 657 | 376394.37 | 362647.74 | 2322.80 | 13746.63 | 96.348
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 273012 | 100110 (0.36756) | 172255 | 647 | 593006.75 | 584182.71 | 1013.46 | 8824.03 | 98.512
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1192670 | 581165 (0.48803) | 609670 | 1835 | 909908.28 | 891821.69 | 2925.63 | 18086.59 | 98.012
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 676896 | 337417 (0.49955) | 338030 | 1449 | 687558.91 | 670366.54 | 6522.44 | 17192.36 | 97.500
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 388700 | 285163 (0.73517) | 102722 | 815 | 309716.22 | 302291.85 | 6172.55 | 7424.37 | 97.603
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 88170 | 69520 (0.79416) | 18019 | 631 | 64944.55 | 63521.31 | 1187.93 | 1423.23 | 97.809
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 79768 | 67744 (0.85677) | 11325 | 699 | 82089.21 | 81299.25 | 400.97 | 789.95 | 99.038
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 127125 | 115770 (0.91617) | 10593 | 762 | 75884.40 | 74799.67 | 1.41 | 1084.73 | 98.571
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 21047 | 19138 (0.97923) | 406 | 1503 | 24946.57 | 24528.43 | 240.80 | 418.13 | 98.324
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 4032121 | 1649308 | 2363579 | 19234 | 827361.64 | 812924.53 | 297.62 | 14437.11 | 98.255
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 121894 | 54895 | 66705 | 294 | 2727721.67 | 2668606.79 | 24406.21 | 59114.87 | 97.833
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 4154015 | 1704203 | 2430284 | 19528 | 3555083.31 | 3481531.33 | 24703.84 | 73551.98 | 97.931
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 73551.98608776 BTC (2.069%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 3374.17117500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 70177.81491276 BTC (1.974%)
Pending Liabilities: 1.64050944 BTC
Final SD Profit: 70176.17440332 BTC (1.974%)
Profit This Month: 2333.24783570 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13338587 : SatoshiDice Tx: 7611534 (57.1%)
Blockchain MB: 5810.7 : SatoshiDice MB: 3141.1 (54.1%)
What matters more to me is the ultra-steady 1.9% edge line because that's indicative of longer term profits and this month - the last few days in particular- have shown it getting pretty close to flat.
Can someone remind me why we care about the 1.9% margin? I mean, if I wanted to make 1.9%, on average, for a term of say one year, then I might as well keep my fiat in the bank and not assume the risks associated with the stock price or SD being out-competed. Not to mention the risk associated with BTC/USD rate that apparently influences SD share price.
The thing is, SDICE doesn't pay 1.9% per year, it pays 1.9% per bet, on average.
So far, they've been running for less than a year, and have taken around 3.6 million BTC in bets.
The share price is somewhere around 0.00368, and there are 100 million shares.
That means their market cap is around 360k BTC.
So in less than a year, they've taken 10 times their market cap in bets, and so are expected to have profited about 19% of their market cap, not 1.9%.
Does your bank pay 19% per year?
What matters more to me is the ultra-steady 1.9% edge line because that's indicative of longer term profits and this month - the last few days in particular- have shown it getting pretty close to flat.
Can someone remind me why we care about the 1.9% margin? I mean, if I wanted to make 1.9%, on average, for a term of say one year, then I might as well keep my fiat in the bank and not assume the risks associated with the stock price or SD being out-competed. Not to mention the risk associated with BTC/USD rate that apparently influences SD share price.
Your bank pays you 1.9% on every transaction? Even with bad months, and splitting profits 100m ways, SDICE probly pays better interest than anything your bank offers...
What matters more to me is the ultra-steady 1.9% edge line because that's indicative of longer term profits and this month - the last few days in particular- have shown it getting pretty close to flat.
Can someone remind me why we care about the 1.9% margin? I mean, if I wanted to make 1.9%, on average, for a term of say one year, then I might as well keep my fiat in the bank and not assume the risks associated with the stock price or SD being out-competed. Not to mention the risk associated with BTC/USD rate that apparently influences SD share price.
I am the gal in the pic, yes.
Everybody knows there are no girls on the internet.
Recent big wins, accounting for the reduction in monthly profit:
https://blockchain.info/tx-index/66272384?show_adv=true
https://blockchain.info/tx-index/66290582?show_adv=true
https://blockchain.info/tx-index/66338492?show_adv=true
https://blockchain.info/tx-index/66344759?show_adv=true
Quote
Total of 66 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Apr-14 12:13pm (up to block 231342)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 126439 | 3 (0.00002) | 124507 | 1929 | 1558.91 | 3842.27 | 146.04 | -2283.36 | 246.471
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 8528 | 0 (0.00000) | 7972 | 556 | 129.32 | 0.23 | 22.25 | 129.09 | 0.183
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 9793 | 1 (0.00011) | 9313 | 479 | 148.00 | 160.16 | 14.96 | -12.15 | 108.215
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 21212 | 5 (0.00024) | 20709 | 498 | 483.78 | 433.27 | 10.13 | 50.51 | 89.559
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 22795 | 4 (0.00018) | 22323 | 468 | 823.68 | 566.37 | 22.14 | 257.31 | 68.761
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 28185 | 13 (0.00047) | 27752 | 420 | 1588.45 | 1830.56 | 1.47 | -242.10 | 115.242
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 29226 | 35 (0.00122) | 28684 | 507 | 2121.36 | 1740.07 | 116.93 | 381.29 | 82.026
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 21246 | 38 (0.00183) | 20725 | 483 | 2396.33 | 1562.97 | 48.45 | 833.36 | 65.223
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 26384 | 114 (0.00439) | 25860 | 410 | 6014.55 | 8656.21 | 13.26 | -2641.65 | 143.921
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 38146 | 303 (0.00810) | 37103 | 740 | 8363.43 | 6913.81 | 10.16 | 1449.62 | 82.667
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 137765 | 2092 (0.01525) | 135089 | 584 | 41537.61 | 36742.98 | 2.31 | 4794.62 | 88.457
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 25865 | 590 (0.02314) | 24903 | 372 | 7976.20 | 8570.25 | 15.13 | -594.04 | 107.448
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 87574 | 2677 (0.03071) | 84488 | 409 | 41215.17 | 36767.41 | 9.40 | 4447.76 | 89.208
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 30629 | 1400 (0.04643) | 28750 | 479 | 9826.29 | 10646.78 | 25.37 | -820.49 | 108.350
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 36583 | 2244 (0.06203) | 33932 | 407 | 7740.60 | 7527.98 | 31.41 | 212.62 | 97.253
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 51813 | 4715 (0.09189) | 46594 | 504 | 16857.87 | 18469.00 | 7.48 | -1611.13 | 109.557
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 201286 | 24614 (0.12262) | 176117 | 555 | 96740.41 | 95552.20 | 100.65 | 1188.21 | 98.772
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 112974 | 20601 (0.18334) | 91761 | 612 | 176056.71 | 177103.31 | 3315.14 | -1046.60 | 100.594
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 278703 | 67933 (0.24431) | 210131 | 639 | 374038.09 | 360453.83 | 2322.74 | 13584.26 | 96.368
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 271260 | 99485 (0.36762) | 171135 | 640 | 591997.45 | 583253.40 | 1013.42 | 8744.04 | 98.523
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1189244 | 579512 (0.48804) | 607914 | 1818 | 908876.80 | 890748.66 | 2925.54 | 18128.13 | 98.005
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 673411 | 335707 (0.49956) | 336301 | 1403 | 686259.49 | 669209.35 | 6522.28 | 17050.13 | 97.515
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 385923 | 283143 (0.73520) | 101982 | 798 | 308925.04 | 301748.09 | 6172.48 | 7176.95 | 97.677
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 87399 | 68907 (0.79402) | 17875 | 617 | 64840.64 | 63407.79 | 1187.89 | 1432.84 | 97.790
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 78819 | 66940 (0.85673) | 11194 | 685 | 81943.27 | 81147.95 | 400.93 | 795.31 | 99.029
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 125361 | 114178 (0.91614) | 10451 | 732 | 75490.16 | 74390.11 | 1.31 | 1100.04 | 98.543
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 20655 | 18805 (0.97933) | 397 | 1453 | 24894.48 | 24476.61 | 240.70 | 417.87 | 98.321
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 4006428 | 1639391 | 2348134 | 18903 | 824946.93 | 810791.03 | 293.88 | 14155.89 | 98.284
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 120790 | 54668 | 65828 | 294 | 2713897.30 | 2655130.72 | 24406.21 | 58766.58 | 97.835
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 4127218 | 1694059 | 2413962 | 19197 | 3538844.23 | 3465921.75 | 24700.09 | 72922.47 | 97.939
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 72922.47934577 BTC (2.061%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 3345.78837500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 69576.69097077 BTC (1.966%)
Pending Liabilities: 157.21935779 BTC
Final SD Profit: 69419.47161298 BTC (1.962%)
Profit This Month: 1576.54504536 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13249776 : SatoshiDice Tx: 7567771 (57.1%)
Blockchain MB: 5769.7 : SatoshiDice MB: 3121.8 (54.1%)
Results: 2013-Apr-14 12:13pm (up to block 231342)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 126439 | 3 (0.00002) | 124507 | 1929 | 1558.91 | 3842.27 | 146.04 | -2283.36 | 246.471
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 8528 | 0 (0.00000) | 7972 | 556 | 129.32 | 0.23 | 22.25 | 129.09 | 0.183
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 9793 | 1 (0.00011) | 9313 | 479 | 148.00 | 160.16 | 14.96 | -12.15 | 108.215
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 21212 | 5 (0.00024) | 20709 | 498 | 483.78 | 433.27 | 10.13 | 50.51 | 89.559
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 22795 | 4 (0.00018) | 22323 | 468 | 823.68 | 566.37 | 22.14 | 257.31 | 68.761
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 28185 | 13 (0.00047) | 27752 | 420 | 1588.45 | 1830.56 | 1.47 | -242.10 | 115.242
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 29226 | 35 (0.00122) | 28684 | 507 | 2121.36 | 1740.07 | 116.93 | 381.29 | 82.026
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 21246 | 38 (0.00183) | 20725 | 483 | 2396.33 | 1562.97 | 48.45 | 833.36 | 65.223
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 26384 | 114 (0.00439) | 25860 | 410 | 6014.55 | 8656.21 | 13.26 | -2641.65 | 143.921
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 38146 | 303 (0.00810) | 37103 | 740 | 8363.43 | 6913.81 | 10.16 | 1449.62 | 82.667
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 137765 | 2092 (0.01525) | 135089 | 584 | 41537.61 | 36742.98 | 2.31 | 4794.62 | 88.457
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 25865 | 590 (0.02314) | 24903 | 372 | 7976.20 | 8570.25 | 15.13 | -594.04 | 107.448
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 87574 | 2677 (0.03071) | 84488 | 409 | 41215.17 | 36767.41 | 9.40 | 4447.76 | 89.208
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 30629 | 1400 (0.04643) | 28750 | 479 | 9826.29 | 10646.78 | 25.37 | -820.49 | 108.350
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 36583 | 2244 (0.06203) | 33932 | 407 | 7740.60 | 7527.98 | 31.41 | 212.62 | 97.253
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 51813 | 4715 (0.09189) | 46594 | 504 | 16857.87 | 18469.00 | 7.48 | -1611.13 | 109.557
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 201286 | 24614 (0.12262) | 176117 | 555 | 96740.41 | 95552.20 | 100.65 | 1188.21 | 98.772
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 112974 | 20601 (0.18334) | 91761 | 612 | 176056.71 | 177103.31 | 3315.14 | -1046.60 | 100.594
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 278703 | 67933 (0.24431) | 210131 | 639 | 374038.09 | 360453.83 | 2322.74 | 13584.26 | 96.368
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 271260 | 99485 (0.36762) | 171135 | 640 | 591997.45 | 583253.40 | 1013.42 | 8744.04 | 98.523
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1189244 | 579512 (0.48804) | 607914 | 1818 | 908876.80 | 890748.66 | 2925.54 | 18128.13 | 98.005
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 673411 | 335707 (0.49956) | 336301 | 1403 | 686259.49 | 669209.35 | 6522.28 | 17050.13 | 97.515
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 385923 | 283143 (0.73520) | 101982 | 798 | 308925.04 | 301748.09 | 6172.48 | 7176.95 | 97.677
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 87399 | 68907 (0.79402) | 17875 | 617 | 64840.64 | 63407.79 | 1187.89 | 1432.84 | 97.790
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 78819 | 66940 (0.85673) | 11194 | 685 | 81943.27 | 81147.95 | 400.93 | 795.31 | 99.029
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 125361 | 114178 (0.91614) | 10451 | 732 | 75490.16 | 74390.11 | 1.31 | 1100.04 | 98.543
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 20655 | 18805 (0.97933) | 397 | 1453 | 24894.48 | 24476.61 | 240.70 | 417.87 | 98.321
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 4006428 | 1639391 | 2348134 | 18903 | 824946.93 | 810791.03 | 293.88 | 14155.89 | 98.284
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 120790 | 54668 | 65828 | 294 | 2713897.30 | 2655130.72 | 24406.21 | 58766.58 | 97.835
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 4127218 | 1694059 | 2413962 | 19197 | 3538844.23 | 3465921.75 | 24700.09 | 72922.47 | 97.939
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 72922.47934577 BTC (2.061%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 3345.78837500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 69576.69097077 BTC (1.966%)
Pending Liabilities: 157.21935779 BTC
Final SD Profit: 69419.47161298 BTC (1.962%)
Profit This Month: 1576.54504536 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13249776 : SatoshiDice Tx: 7567771 (57.1%)
Blockchain MB: 5769.7 : SatoshiDice MB: 3121.8 (54.1%)
If I've understood this right the 1.9 edge figure reflects the "BTC In" sum and the 1.9% line on the chart showing pretty flat tells me that 'BTC In' in is also pretty flat. Have I missed something here?
I don't think so. I think you're both looking at much the same thing, in that they're both indicators of the bet volume rather than the (short term) profitability.
The following is the amount of "BTC In" for SatoshiDice.com for four 4-week periods:
BTC IN
Jan 16th 1992532
Feb 13th 1174083
Mar 13th 240936
Apr 9th 121371
The whales certainly distorted things. Would be great to have them back though.
I am the gal in the pic, yes.
If I've understood this right the 1.9 edge figure reflects the "BTC In" sum and the 1.9% line on the chart showing pretty flat tells me that 'BTC In' in is also pretty flat. Have I missed something here?
I don't think so. I think you're both looking at much the same thing, in that they're both indicators of the bet volume rather than the (short term) profitability.
The following is the amount of "BTC In" for SatoshiDice.com for four 4-week periods:
BTC IN
Jan 16th 1992532
Feb 13th 1174083
Mar 13th 240936
Apr 9th 121371
If I've understood this right the 1.9 edge figure reflects the "BTC In" sum and the 1.9% line on the chart showing pretty flat tells me that 'BTC In' in is also pretty flat. Have I missed something here?
I don't think so. I think you're both looking at much the same thing, in that they're both indicators of the bet volume rather than the (short term) profitability.
The following is the amount of "BTC In" for SatoshiDice.com for four 4-week periods:
BTC IN
Jan 16th 1992532
Feb 13th 1174083
Mar 13th 240936
Apr 9th 121371
Hi! I am very much a beginner myself, but one thought would be to look at running a custom algorithm development system. This would be helpful if you expect to see the effects between many other variables that may be useful.
If I've understood this right the 1.9 edge figure reflects the "BTC In" sum and the 1.9% line on the chart showing pretty flat tells me that 'BTC In' in is also pretty flat. Have I missed something here?
I don't think so. I think you're both looking at much the same thing, in that they're both indicators of the bet volume rather than the (short term) profitability.
Quote
Total of 144 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Apr-13 08:36pm (up to block 231237)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 125968 | 3 (0.00002) | 124043 | 1922 | 1551.40 | 3842.23 | 145.13 | -2290.82 | 247.661
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 8515 | 0 (0.00000) | 7959 | 556 | 128.77 | 0.23 | 22.25 | 128.54 | 0.181
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 9770 | 1 (0.00011) | 9292 | 477 | 147.60 | 160.16 | 14.55 | -12.56 | 108.510
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 19673 | 5 (0.00026) | 19170 | 498 | 417.52 | 432.94 | 10.13 | -15.41 | 103.693
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 21404 | 3 (0.00014) | 20934 | 467 | 739.86 | 246.14 | 22.14 | 493.72 | 33.268
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 27187 | 12 (0.00045) | 26756 | 419 | 1521.88 | 1658.33 | 1.47 | -136.44 | 108.966
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 29089 | 35 (0.00122) | 28547 | 507 | 2110.64 | 1740.01 | 116.93 | 370.62 | 82.440
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 21223 | 38 (0.00183) | 20702 | 483 | 2395.80 | 1562.97 | 48.45 | 832.83 | 65.238
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 26369 | 114 (0.00439) | 25846 | 409 | 6011.96 | 8656.19 | 13.26 | -2644.23 | 143.983
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 38009 | 302 (0.00810) | 36967 | 740 | 8352.14 | 6912.51 | 10.16 | 1439.63 | 82.763
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 136890 | 2076 (0.01523) | 134233 | 581 | 41395.30 | 36496.35 | 2.29 | 4898.94 | 88.165
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 25851 | 590 (0.02316) | 24890 | 371 | 7975.84 | 8570.25 | 15.13 | -594.41 | 107.453
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 87362 | 2674 (0.03075) | 84279 | 409 | 41144.78 | 36752.71 | 9.40 | 4392.07 | 89.325
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 30614 | 1400 (0.04646) | 28735 | 479 | 9825.47 | 10646.78 | 25.37 | -821.30 | 108.359
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 36560 | 2242 (0.06201) | 33911 | 407 | 7739.90 | 7527.54 | 31.41 | 212.35 | 97.256
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 51750 | 4714 (0.09199) | 46532 | 504 | 16855.84 | 18468.89 | 7.48 | -1613.04 | 109.570
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 200914 | 24561 (0.12258) | 175799 | 554 | 96593.71 | 95463.24 | 100.65 | 1130.47 | 98.830
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 112528 | 20515 (0.18331) | 91401 | 612 | 175910.97 | 176882.52 | 3315.14 | -971.54 | 100.552
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 278373 | 67850 (0.24430) | 209886 | 637 | 373966.53 | 360338.01 | 2322.73 | 13628.51 | 96.356
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 270921 | 99377 (0.36768) | 170905 | 639 | 591960.13 | 583210.48 | 1013.41 | 8749.64 | 98.522
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1187809 | 578808 (0.48804) | 607186 | 1815 | 908600.66 | 890449.91 | 2925.54 | 18150.74 | 98.002
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 672307 | 335163 (0.49956) | 335747 | 1397 | 685467.46 | 668471.61 | 6522.25 | 16995.84 | 97.521
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 385265 | 282691 (0.73527) | 101782 | 792 | 308804.38 | 301647.77 | 6172.46 | 7156.61 | 97.682
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 87177 | 68737 (0.79408) | 17825 | 615 | 64817.86 | 63382.53 | 1187.89 | 1435.33 | 97.786
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 78634 | 66790 (0.85679) | 11164 | 680 | 81887.38 | 81099.99 | 400.91 | 787.39 | 99.038
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 124756 | 113626 (0.91610) | 10406 | 724 | 75394.04 | 74290.55 | 1.27 | 1103.49 | 98.536
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 20546 | 18705 (0.97932) | 395 | 1446 | 24889.63 | 24471.76 | 240.70 | 417.87 | 98.321
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 3994793 | 1636409 | 2339538 | 18846 | 823849.13 | 809333.46 | 292.41 | 14515.67 | 98.238
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 120671 | 54623 | 65754 | 294 | 2712758.45 | 2654049.25 | 24406.21 | 58709.19 | 97.836
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 4115464 | 1691032 | 2405292 | 19140 | 3536607.58 | 3463382.71 | 24698.62 | 73224.87 | 97.930
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 73224.87328657 BTC (2.070%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 3333.32577500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 69891.54751157 BTC (1.976%)
Pending Liabilities: -18.29921425 BTC
Final SD Profit: 69909.84672582 BTC (1.977%)
Profit This Month: 2066.92015820 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13215515 : SatoshiDice Tx: 7549203 (57.1%)
Blockchain MB: 5753.3 : SatoshiDice MB: 3113.0 (54.1%)
Results: 2013-Apr-13 08:36pm (up to block 231237)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 125968 | 3 (0.00002) | 124043 | 1922 | 1551.40 | 3842.23 | 145.13 | -2290.82 | 247.661
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 8515 | 0 (0.00000) | 7959 | 556 | 128.77 | 0.23 | 22.25 | 128.54 | 0.181
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 9770 | 1 (0.00011) | 9292 | 477 | 147.60 | 160.16 | 14.55 | -12.56 | 108.510
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 19673 | 5 (0.00026) | 19170 | 498 | 417.52 | 432.94 | 10.13 | -15.41 | 103.693
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 21404 | 3 (0.00014) | 20934 | 467 | 739.86 | 246.14 | 22.14 | 493.72 | 33.268
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 27187 | 12 (0.00045) | 26756 | 419 | 1521.88 | 1658.33 | 1.47 | -136.44 | 108.966
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 29089 | 35 (0.00122) | 28547 | 507 | 2110.64 | 1740.01 | 116.93 | 370.62 | 82.440
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 21223 | 38 (0.00183) | 20702 | 483 | 2395.80 | 1562.97 | 48.45 | 832.83 | 65.238
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 26369 | 114 (0.00439) | 25846 | 409 | 6011.96 | 8656.19 | 13.26 | -2644.23 | 143.983
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 38009 | 302 (0.00810) | 36967 | 740 | 8352.14 | 6912.51 | 10.16 | 1439.63 | 82.763
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 136890 | 2076 (0.01523) | 134233 | 581 | 41395.30 | 36496.35 | 2.29 | 4898.94 | 88.165
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 25851 | 590 (0.02316) | 24890 | 371 | 7975.84 | 8570.25 | 15.13 | -594.41 | 107.453
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 87362 | 2674 (0.03075) | 84279 | 409 | 41144.78 | 36752.71 | 9.40 | 4392.07 | 89.325
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 30614 | 1400 (0.04646) | 28735 | 479 | 9825.47 | 10646.78 | 25.37 | -821.30 | 108.359
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 36560 | 2242 (0.06201) | 33911 | 407 | 7739.90 | 7527.54 | 31.41 | 212.35 | 97.256
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 51750 | 4714 (0.09199) | 46532 | 504 | 16855.84 | 18468.89 | 7.48 | -1613.04 | 109.570
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 200914 | 24561 (0.12258) | 175799 | 554 | 96593.71 | 95463.24 | 100.65 | 1130.47 | 98.830
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 112528 | 20515 (0.18331) | 91401 | 612 | 175910.97 | 176882.52 | 3315.14 | -971.54 | 100.552
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 278373 | 67850 (0.24430) | 209886 | 637 | 373966.53 | 360338.01 | 2322.73 | 13628.51 | 96.356
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 270921 | 99377 (0.36768) | 170905 | 639 | 591960.13 | 583210.48 | 1013.41 | 8749.64 | 98.522
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1187809 | 578808 (0.48804) | 607186 | 1815 | 908600.66 | 890449.91 | 2925.54 | 18150.74 | 98.002
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 672307 | 335163 (0.49956) | 335747 | 1397 | 685467.46 | 668471.61 | 6522.25 | 16995.84 | 97.521
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 385265 | 282691 (0.73527) | 101782 | 792 | 308804.38 | 301647.77 | 6172.46 | 7156.61 | 97.682
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 87177 | 68737 (0.79408) | 17825 | 615 | 64817.86 | 63382.53 | 1187.89 | 1435.33 | 97.786
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 78634 | 66790 (0.85679) | 11164 | 680 | 81887.38 | 81099.99 | 400.91 | 787.39 | 99.038
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 124756 | 113626 (0.91610) | 10406 | 724 | 75394.04 | 74290.55 | 1.27 | 1103.49 | 98.536
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 20546 | 18705 (0.97932) | 395 | 1446 | 24889.63 | 24471.76 | 240.70 | 417.87 | 98.321
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 3994793 | 1636409 | 2339538 | 18846 | 823849.13 | 809333.46 | 292.41 | 14515.67 | 98.238
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 120671 | 54623 | 65754 | 294 | 2712758.45 | 2654049.25 | 24406.21 | 58709.19 | 97.836
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 4115464 | 1691032 | 2405292 | 19140 | 3536607.58 | 3463382.71 | 24698.62 | 73224.87 | 97.930
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 73224.87328657 BTC (2.070%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 3333.32577500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 69891.54751157 BTC (1.976%)
Pending Liabilities: -18.29921425 BTC
Final SD Profit: 69909.84672582 BTC (1.977%)
Profit This Month: 2066.92015820 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13215515 : SatoshiDice Tx: 7549203 (57.1%)
Blockchain MB: 5753.3 : SatoshiDice MB: 3113.0 (54.1%)
The sums provided are all-time cumulative. You need to do some math to compare changes in BTC In over time. More hints: Compare the daily BTC In from the last 2 or 3 reports. Then compare the BTC In for the last four 4-week periods. Then realize that SDICE income is highly tied to BTC/USD.
Expect it to look a lot better in coming days. With BTC value lowering, people will make larger/more BTC bets.
It was the same price or less for all of march ! didn't see people make large bet in march !?
You both don't see it because you aren't looking in the right place. Hint: "BTC In"
Expect it to look a lot better in coming days. With BTC value lowering, people will make larger/more BTC bets.
It was the same price or less for all of march ! didn't see people make large bet in march !?
You both don't see it because you aren't looking in the right place. Hint: "BTC In"
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