Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 43. (Read 192889 times)
Dice shares will now go down the drain
I hope it's just a fluke and no one's found an angle.
Worst day for satoshidice ever?
Quote
Total of 58 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Jan-29 12:26pm (up to block 218637)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 76856 | 0 (0.00000) | 75566 | 1290 | 790.58 | 0.01 | 103.64 | 790.56 | 0.003
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3814 | 0 (0.00000) | 3317 | 497 | 62.49 | 0.01 | 17.03 | 62.48 | 0.020
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5979 | 1 (0.00018) | 5557 | 421 | 86.98 | 159.97 | 8.46 | -72.98 | 183.907
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 8650 | 3 (0.00036) | 8221 | 426 | 130.78 | 176.01 | 10.03 | -45.22 | 134.579
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 10485 | 1 (0.00010) | 10072 | 412 | 311.45 | 4.56 | 18.66 | 306.89 | 1.466
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 11575 | 3 (0.00027) | 11179 | 393 | 619.64 | 303.62 | 1.36 | 316.01 | 49.000
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 13868 | 14 (0.00104) | 13434 | 420 | 885.73 | 230.74 | 55.72 | 654.99 | 26.051
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 16157 | 31 (0.00197) | 15694 | 432 | 1954.25 | 1379.19 | 48.32 | 575.06 | 70.574
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 17938 | 78 (0.00444) | 17482 | 378 | 2247.20 | 3542.75 | 13.17 | -1295.55 | 157.652
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 26848 | 201 (0.00768) | 25964 | 683 | 4443.85 | 4122.07 | 9.98 | 321.78 | 92.759
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 85869 | 1312 (0.01536) | 84108 | 449 | 22812.55 | 19207.97 | 1.95 | 3604.57 | 84.199
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 20350 | 476 (0.02380) | 19524 | 350 | 6530.52 | 6608.00 | 15.07 | -77.47 | 101.186
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 51105 | 1574 (0.03103) | 49146 | 385 | 25349.58 | 22798.57 | 9.32 | 2551.01 | 89.937
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 23650 | 1078 (0.04640) | 22154 | 418 | 8618.38 | 9768.54 | 25.11 | -1150.15 | 113.345
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 29285 | 1772 (0.06128) | 27143 | 370 | 6669.87 | 6239.21 | 31.28 | 430.65 | 93.543
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 35861 | 3341 (0.09421) | 32122 | 398 | 14167.42 | 15898.80 | 7.14 | -1731.37 | 112.221
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 145237 | 17831 (0.12315) | 126956 | 450 | 70577.64 | 70857.86 | 100.22 | -280.22 | 100.397
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 59405 | 10870 (0.18435) | 48095 | 440 | 139050.04 | 142268.56 | 3314.66 | -3218.52 | 102.315
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 177844 | 43228 (0.24372) | 134137 | 479 | 313178.25 | 301753.76 | 2056.09 | 11424.49 | 96.352
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 172557 | 63334 (0.36814) | 108704 | 519 | 473747.23 | 478907.68 | 1012.96 | -5160.45 | 101.089
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 923120 | 449982 (0.48821) | 471720 | 1418 | 721187.68 | 704498.03 | 2924.16 | 16689.64 | 97.686
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 421037 | 209817 (0.49937) | 210345 | 875 | 542316.27 | 531778.85 | 5720.39 | 10537.42 | 98.057
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 269949 | 198169 (0.73555) | 71246 | 534 | 261690.70 | 256088.63 | 5454.87 | 5602.06 | 97.859
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 52608 | 41428 (0.79393) | 10753 | 427 | 54307.80 | 53141.52 | 1187.19 | 1166.27 | 97.852
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 39747 | 33629 (0.85624) | 5646 | 472 | 57208.56 | 56774.27 | 400.23 | 434.29 | 99.241
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 53665 | 48741 (0.91586) | 4478 | 446 | 55958.77 | 55522.95 | 0.21 | 435.82 | 99.221
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 13077 | 12072 (0.98083) | 236 | 769 | 22389.40 | 22005.81 | 239.69 | 383.59 | 98.287
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2671711 | 1094119 | 1563330 | 14262 | 611092.23 | 598106.44 | 224.35 | 12985.78 | 97.875
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 94825 | 44867 | 49669 | 289 | 2196201.55 | 2165931.63 | 22562.70 | 30269.92 | 98.622
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 2766536 | 1138986 | 1612999 | 14551 | 2807293.78 | 2764038.07 | 22787.05 | 43255.70 | 98.459
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 43255.70945392 BTC (1.541%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1964.45447500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 41291.25497892 BTC (1.471%)
Pending Liabilities: 148.07916462 BTC
Final SD Profit: 41143.17581430 BTC (1.466%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 9014017 : SatoshiDice Tx: 5093206 (56.5%)
Blockchain MB: 3846.0 : SatoshiDice MB: 2091.3 (54.4%)
Results: 2013-Jan-29 12:26pm (up to block 218637)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 76856 | 0 (0.00000) | 75566 | 1290 | 790.58 | 0.01 | 103.64 | 790.56 | 0.003
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3814 | 0 (0.00000) | 3317 | 497 | 62.49 | 0.01 | 17.03 | 62.48 | 0.020
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5979 | 1 (0.00018) | 5557 | 421 | 86.98 | 159.97 | 8.46 | -72.98 | 183.907
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 8650 | 3 (0.00036) | 8221 | 426 | 130.78 | 176.01 | 10.03 | -45.22 | 134.579
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 10485 | 1 (0.00010) | 10072 | 412 | 311.45 | 4.56 | 18.66 | 306.89 | 1.466
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 11575 | 3 (0.00027) | 11179 | 393 | 619.64 | 303.62 | 1.36 | 316.01 | 49.000
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 13868 | 14 (0.00104) | 13434 | 420 | 885.73 | 230.74 | 55.72 | 654.99 | 26.051
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 16157 | 31 (0.00197) | 15694 | 432 | 1954.25 | 1379.19 | 48.32 | 575.06 | 70.574
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 17938 | 78 (0.00444) | 17482 | 378 | 2247.20 | 3542.75 | 13.17 | -1295.55 | 157.652
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 26848 | 201 (0.00768) | 25964 | 683 | 4443.85 | 4122.07 | 9.98 | 321.78 | 92.759
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 85869 | 1312 (0.01536) | 84108 | 449 | 22812.55 | 19207.97 | 1.95 | 3604.57 | 84.199
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 20350 | 476 (0.02380) | 19524 | 350 | 6530.52 | 6608.00 | 15.07 | -77.47 | 101.186
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 51105 | 1574 (0.03103) | 49146 | 385 | 25349.58 | 22798.57 | 9.32 | 2551.01 | 89.937
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 23650 | 1078 (0.04640) | 22154 | 418 | 8618.38 | 9768.54 | 25.11 | -1150.15 | 113.345
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 29285 | 1772 (0.06128) | 27143 | 370 | 6669.87 | 6239.21 | 31.28 | 430.65 | 93.543
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 35861 | 3341 (0.09421) | 32122 | 398 | 14167.42 | 15898.80 | 7.14 | -1731.37 | 112.221
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 145237 | 17831 (0.12315) | 126956 | 450 | 70577.64 | 70857.86 | 100.22 | -280.22 | 100.397
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 59405 | 10870 (0.18435) | 48095 | 440 | 139050.04 | 142268.56 | 3314.66 | -3218.52 | 102.315
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 177844 | 43228 (0.24372) | 134137 | 479 | 313178.25 | 301753.76 | 2056.09 | 11424.49 | 96.352
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 172557 | 63334 (0.36814) | 108704 | 519 | 473747.23 | 478907.68 | 1012.96 | -5160.45 | 101.089
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 923120 | 449982 (0.48821) | 471720 | 1418 | 721187.68 | 704498.03 | 2924.16 | 16689.64 | 97.686
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 421037 | 209817 (0.49937) | 210345 | 875 | 542316.27 | 531778.85 | 5720.39 | 10537.42 | 98.057
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 269949 | 198169 (0.73555) | 71246 | 534 | 261690.70 | 256088.63 | 5454.87 | 5602.06 | 97.859
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 52608 | 41428 (0.79393) | 10753 | 427 | 54307.80 | 53141.52 | 1187.19 | 1166.27 | 97.852
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 39747 | 33629 (0.85624) | 5646 | 472 | 57208.56 | 56774.27 | 400.23 | 434.29 | 99.241
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 53665 | 48741 (0.91586) | 4478 | 446 | 55958.77 | 55522.95 | 0.21 | 435.82 | 99.221
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 13077 | 12072 (0.98083) | 236 | 769 | 22389.40 | 22005.81 | 239.69 | 383.59 | 98.287
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2671711 | 1094119 | 1563330 | 14262 | 611092.23 | 598106.44 | 224.35 | 12985.78 | 97.875
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 94825 | 44867 | 49669 | 289 | 2196201.55 | 2165931.63 | 22562.70 | 30269.92 | 98.622
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 2766536 | 1138986 | 1612999 | 14551 | 2807293.78 | 2764038.07 | 22787.05 | 43255.70 | 98.459
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 43255.70945392 BTC (1.541%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1964.45447500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 41291.25497892 BTC (1.471%)
Pending Liabilities: 148.07916462 BTC
Final SD Profit: 41143.17581430 BTC (1.466%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 9014017 : SatoshiDice Tx: 5093206 (56.5%)
Blockchain MB: 3846.0 : SatoshiDice MB: 2091.3 (54.4%)
1.00000512 BTC coming through to you now. Thanks again.
Thanks!
You're welcome. There's a link in my signature for that... 
1.00000512 BTC coming through to you now. Thanks again.
Maybe in the end, Satoshi will return and tell us the whole point of Bitcoin was to make Satoshi dice in the first place. Since of course, that's what it is used for more then anything else. 
guess who bought the other 90%...
Though I don't know if this is "Gambling" or "Service Discussion". (This thread isn't exactly a solicitation to gamble, after all...)
Or maybe even Securities as it is about the financials of SatoshiDice.
+1
Obligatory conspiracy mode: If you didn't get any money directly from Erik then etotheipi simply robbed you from your rightfully gained income. Ask him for a proof that he didn't get any money from Erik! etotheipi will be probably ashamed to admit that he neglected to squeeze any funds from Erik or at least have a cross-promotion deal with him regarding Armory.
Boring mode: I have nothing against your posts. The thread just drifted quite far. The original posts had some data about what percentage of transactions and what percentage of blockchain space is caused by Satoshi Dice. Now it is more about the financial aspect.
etotheipi can move this thread: there should be "move topic" and "lock topic" available to him. It just remains to choose which area to move to.
Boring mode: I have nothing against your posts. The thread just drifted quite far. The original posts had some data about what percentage of transactions and what percentage of blockchain space is caused by Satoshi Dice. Now it is more about the financial aspect.
etotheipi can move this thread: there should be "move topic" and "lock topic" available to him. It just remains to choose which area to move to.
Hah! I'm in the same boat as dooglus -- Erik has contacted me a few times asking for some analysis/advice on statistical matters, and then subsequently tipped for that advice. But he's never even mentioned this thread, other than implicitly knowing that I already know when he's had a bad day and I already have all the data I would need to do some analysis...
On that note, I should thank dooglus for doing all this work. I originally made the SD thread to track a variety of things, not just the blockchain bloat. The "statistical analysis" in the title, still makes the financial aspect relevant. I just wish I had more time to analyze the data with my statistical skillz.
I didn't realize that I could move threads... once there is some consensus about where it should go, I'll be happy to move it.
Maybe in the end, Satoshi will return and tell us the whole point of Bitcoin was to make Satoshi dice in the first place. Since of course, that's what it is used for more then anything else.
Quote
I started posting because I thought it was cool how you could find out SD's bottom line from the publicly available blockchain. I don't really know why I keep posting. Partly it's a silly obsession, and partly people seem to appreciate it. It's certainly not a good use of my time.
Thanks for all this job !!
Set your price for make it accessible 24/7 with graphs etc.. !
I'm sure all the S.DICE holders we'll be happy to contribute.
I'm sure you could make some money this way. Charge a fee for real time access and allow free access to a delayed version.
And thanks for the analysis. I don't know why I keep reading, either, but it is amazing to watch.
It just remains to choose which area to move to.
Definitely "Securities".
Like FTWbitcoinFTW suggests, it could even include other useful data for quick reference, like daily profit/loss, projected monthly dividend per share, or whichever stats make the most sense.
I could also see MPEx or Havelock building these reports into their system for shareholders. The S.DICE business model does provide a unique opportunity to pinpoint the current value per share pretty closely... barring unexpected expense claims from the company, and "bad" months I guess...
I've never received anything from Erik for this thread. He's tipped me in the past for some private analysis he asked me to do, but nothing for this thread. I forget what the imgur account cost, but it's probably not covered by the tips I've received from readers of this thread.
I started posting because I thought it was cool how you could find out SD's bottom line from the publicly available blockchain. I don't really know why I keep posting. Partly it's a silly obsession, and partly people seem to appreciate it. It's certainly not a good use of my time.
I don't think I can move the thread, but wouldn't have any objection to it being moved. It does belong in the gambling section, I agree.
Edit: I just tried to find out who moderates this section, but don't see anyone listed. Who should I contact about getting the thread moved to 'gambling'?
Obligatory conspiracy mode: If you didn't get any money directly from Erik then etotheipi simply robbed you from your rightfully gained income. Ask him for a proof that he didn't get any money from Erik! etotheipi will be probably ashamed to admit that he neglected to squeeze any funds from Erik or at least have a cross-promotion deal with him regarding Armory.I started posting because I thought it was cool how you could find out SD's bottom line from the publicly available blockchain. I don't really know why I keep posting. Partly it's a silly obsession, and partly people seem to appreciate it. It's certainly not a good use of my time.
I don't think I can move the thread, but wouldn't have any objection to it being moved. It does belong in the gambling section, I agree.
Edit: I just tried to find out who moderates this section, but don't see anyone listed. Who should I contact about getting the thread moved to 'gambling'?
Boring mode: I have nothing against your posts. The thread just drifted quite far. The original posts had some data about what percentage of transactions and what percentage of blockchain space is caused by Satoshi Dice. Now it is more about the financial aspect.
etotheipi can move this thread: there should be "move topic" and "lock topic" available to him. It just remains to choose which area to move to.
Quote
I started posting because I thought it was cool how you could find out SD's bottom line from the publicly available blockchain. I don't really know why I keep posting. Partly it's a silly obsession, and partly people seem to appreciate it. It's certainly not a good use of my time.
Thanks for all this job !!
Set your price for make it accessible 24/7 with graphs etc.. !
I'm sure all the S.DICE holders we'll be happy to contribute.
Though I don't know if this is "Gambling" or "Service Discussion". (This thread isn't exactly a solicitation to gamble, after all...)
Or maybe even Securities as it is about the financials of SatoshiDice.
Edit: I just tried to find out who moderates this section, but don't see anyone listed. Who should I contact about getting the thread moved to 'gambling'?
I'd suggest posting on the "Meta" board and asking for it to be moved. Though I don't know if this is "Gambling" or "Service Discussion". (This thread isn't exactly a solicitation to gamble, after all…)
And thanks for the analysis. I don't know why I keep reading, either, but it is amazing to watch.
Obligatory (on bitcointalk) conspiracy theory:
So how much did you (doglus & ethoteipi) managed to squeeze out of Erik Voorhees for keeping this topic on the first page of the Development and Technical Discussion forum?
Is he at least covering your paid account at imgur?
Or are you guys doing just for the cachet and a status symbol?
Without the conspiracy theory:
Can you guys move this thread to the Economy->Marketplace->Gambling where it belongs?
So how much did you (doglus & ethoteipi) managed to squeeze out of Erik Voorhees for keeping this topic on the first page of the Development and Technical Discussion forum?
Is he at least covering your paid account at imgur?
Or are you guys doing just for the cachet and a status symbol?
Without the conspiracy theory:
Can you guys move this thread to the Economy->Marketplace->Gambling where it belongs?
I've never received anything from Erik for this thread. He's tipped me in the past for some private analysis he asked me to do, but nothing for this thread. I forget what the imgur account cost, but it's probably not covered by the tips I've received from readers of this thread.
I started posting because I thought it was cool how you could find out SD's bottom line from the publicly available blockchain. I don't really know why I keep posting. Partly it's a silly obsession, and partly people seem to appreciate it. It's certainly not a good use of my time.
I don't think I can move the thread, but wouldn't have any objection to it being moved. It does belong in the gambling section, I agree.
Edit: I just tried to find out who moderates this section, but don't see anyone listed. Who should I contact about getting the thread moved to 'gambling'?
I just want to thank you for doing these stats daily 
You're welcome. There's a link in my signature for that...
Just waiting to move some funds around
2112 is correct, this thread probably is probably better off in another forum category.
I just want to thank you for doing these stats daily
You're welcome. There's a link in my signature for that...
So how much did you (doglus & ethoteipi) managed to squeeze out of Erik Voorhees for keeping this topic on the first page of the Development and Technical Discussion forum?
Is he at least covering your paid account at imgur?
Or are you guys doing just for the cachet and a status symbol?
Without the conspiracy theory:
Can you guys move this thread to the Economy->Marketplace->Gambling where it belongs?
I just want to thank you for doing these stats daily
You're welcome. There's a link in my signature for that...
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