Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 40.

dooglus

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Quote from: Kryptox on January 31, 2013, 04:36:25 AM

Quote from: dooglus on January 30, 2013, 03:57:34 PM

Quote

$ python
Python 2.7.3 (default, Sep 26 2012, 21:51:14)
[GCC 4.7.2] on linux2
Type "help", "copyright", "credits" or "license" for more information.
>>> import hashlib, hmac
>>> txid = 'df7a5cb1ed439f1e0f314cfed88f77ab0f0fdf4a4d2e4714a8287834791fbd95'
>>> secret = 'DIGtgGbebAIjJeuh1tlzMW5Xzs8ds0V9azgs40JvWOd24NpFEttZEFM32OHgEqFd'
>>> for nout in range(10): print nout, int(hmac.new(secret, "%s:%d" % (txid, nout), hashlib.sha512).hexdigest()[:4], 16)
0 10351
1 37909
2 63099
3 19569
4 13550
5 36796
6 28032
7 53908
8 64653
9 36560
>>>

Thank you dooglus for explaining this so clearly! I didn't realize SD allows you to split a single transaction into multiple bets now. From what I understand, there was an update to the Bitcoin network not too long ago that doesn't actually allow you to use the exact same transaction ID twice.

I put up a simple page at http://dooglus.com/sd/ that prompts for the txid and the secret and calculates the magic number(s) for you, if you don't want to install Python for yourself.

dooglus

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Quote from: Bowjob on February 01, 2013, 03:43:24 PM

Looks like we spooked the whale!

He's still playing right now. Just not as much as in recent days.

Bowjob

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Looks like we spooked the whale!

dooglus

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Quote

Total of 31 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Feb-01 12:33pm (up to block 219132)

   Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 77686 | 0 (0.00000) | 76382 | 1304 | 801.28 | 0.01 | 105.50 | 801.26 | 0.002
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3837 | 0 (0.00000) | 3337 | 500 | 63.41 | 0.01 | 17.22 | 63.39 | 0.020
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 6081 | 1 (0.00018) | 5658 | 422 | 89.79 | 159.98 | 8.46 | -70.18 | 178.167
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 8680 | 3 (0.00036) | 8251 | 426 | 132.41 | 176.01 | 10.03 | -43.60 | 132.927
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 10611 | 1 (0.00010) | 10196 | 414 | 315.98 | 4.56 | 20.03 | 311.41 | 1.445
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 12030 | 4 (0.00034) | 11632 | 394 | 641.94 | 383.59 | 1.36 | 258.35 | 59.755
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 15025 | 14 (0.00096) | 14586 | 425 | 948.20 | 230.75 | 55.73 | 717.45 | 24.336
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 16716 | 32 (0.00197) | 16252 | 432 | 2001.85 | 1416.70 | 48.32 | 585.14 | 70.770
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 18503 | 84 (0.00463) | 18041 | 378 | 2305.66 | 3683.16 | 13.17 | -1377.49 | 159.744
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 27301 | 206 (0.00774) | 26411 | 684 | 4491.67 | 4210.26 | 9.98 | 281.40 | 93.735
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 87951 | 1353 (0.01546) | 86145 | 453 | 23263.64 | 19774.85 | 1.95 | 3488.78 | 85.003
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 20552 | 480 (0.02376) | 19721 | 351 | 6566.44 | 6619.64 | 15.07 | -53.20 | 100.810
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 52654 | 1621 (0.03101) | 50647 | 386 | 25912.96 | 23376.42 | 9.32 | 2536.53 | 90.211
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 23733 | 1081 (0.04637) | 22234 | 418 | 8648.93 | 9898.95 | 25.11 | -1250.01 | 114.453
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 29368 | 1781 (0.06142) | 27215 | 372 | 6723.72 | 6385.15 | 31.29 | 338.56 | 94.965
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 36697 | 3407 (0.09387) | 32889 | 401 | 14238.54 | 15933.48 | 7.16 | -1694.93 | 111.904
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 150188 | 18489 (0.12348) | 131245 | 454 | 72932.01 | 73228.80 | 100.24 | -296.78 | 100.407
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 60682 | 11109 (0.18444) | 49122 | 451 | 145717.37 | 149202.78 | 3314.67 | -3485.40 | 102.392
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 180562 | 43902 (0.24379) | 136179 | 481 | 332925.52 | 319549.93 | 2056.10 | 13375.59 | 95.982
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 178590 | 65516 (0.36793) | 112552 | 522 | 532287.03 | 528557.90 | 1012.97 | 3729.13 | 99.299
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 933519 | 454985 (0.48813) | 477110 | 1424 | 756264.91 | 739164.60 | 2924.17 | 17100.30 | 97.739
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 430481 | 214555 (0.49943) | 215045 | 881 | 577639.13 | 565285.22 | 5720.41 | 12353.91 | 97.861
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 273491 | 200745 (0.73545) | 72210 | 536 | 263973.73 | 258206.22 | 5454.88 | 5767.51 | 97.815
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 54840 | 43202 (0.79402) | 11207 | 431 | 55597.01 | 54391.49 | 1187.21 | 1205.52 | 97.832
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 40507 | 34282 (0.85634) | 5751 | 474 | 63313.52 | 62853.37 | 400.24 | 460.14 | 99.273
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 55066 | 50016 (0.91579) | 4599 | 451 | 57196.81 | 56789.54 | 0.22 | 407.26 | 99.288
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 13215 | 12194 (0.98054) | 242 | 779 | 22516.74 | 22121.09 | 239.71 | 395.64 | 98.243
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2720881 | 1112988 | 1593538 | 14355 | 621011.82 | 608073.42 | 227.95 | 12938.40 | 97.917
   big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 97685 | 46075 | 51321 | 289 | 2356498.53 | 2313531.16 | 22562.70 | 42967.36 | 98.177
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   | 2818566 | 1159063 | 1644859 | 14644 | 2977510.35 | 2921604.58 | 22790.65 | 55905.76 | 98.122
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 55905.76815102 BTC (1.878%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 2016.81227500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 53888.95587602 BTC (1.810%)
Pending Liabilities: 412.22806110 BTC
Final SD Profit: 53476.72781492 BTC (1.796%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 9164276 : SatoshiDice Tx: 5187972 (56.6%)
Blockchain MB: 3911.8 : SatoshiDice MB: 2130.4 (54.5%)

smickles

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Quote from: dooglus on January 31, 2013, 03:37:38 PM

Incidentally, how's the font look in the table inside the 'quote' above? It's much easier to read than the one I usually use, but does it show up well for you too?

It comes out as 'Source Code Pro' for me, so it looks like the best font out there Cheesy

Herbert

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Quote from: dooglus on February 01, 2013, 12:18:22 AM

2) I never noticed before how the graph sometimes goes back in time, due to the way that some blocks have an older timestamp than the preceding block.

This looks funny.

dserrano5

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Quote from: dooglus on January 31, 2013, 06:07:12 PM

Quote

New: asdsadasdad23101010 ... ?!"#%#$

Quote

Old: asdsadasdad23101010 ... ?!"#%#$

For me, the first one is much clearer. The 2nd looks kind of grey, not black.

Same here. First one has way more contrast.

dooglus

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Two things:

1) The black line very nearly caught the red line.

2) I never noticed before how the graph sometimes goes back in time, due to the way that some blocks have an older timestamp than the preceding block.

dooglus

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Quote from: 2112 on January 31, 2013, 07:25:45 PM

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/825/snaph.png/

Lets see if my reply with imageshack link works. Well, it appears to be working for now. Both fonts are quite readable on my end. The forum software prepends some proxy by anonymouse; but when I save and compare the images they are identical.

Thanks for that.

2112

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http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/825/snaph.png/

Lets see if my reply with imageshack link works. Well, it appears to be working for now. Both fonts are quite readable on my end. The forum software prepends some proxy by anonymouse; but when I save and compare the images they are identical.

ingrownpocket

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dooglus

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Quote from: m_yaw on January 31, 2013, 04:03:15 PM

"if any": in the latest chart the black line hasn't caught up to the red line yet.

The red line is the expected profit, based on the bet volume so far. The black line is the actual profit. As you say, the black line didn't catch the red line yet, but that just means the overall profit isn't quite 1.9% of turnover (it's 1.86% of turnover). So the site is performing a little worse than expected, but it's still doing amazingly well, and making huge profits.

(Note, the house edge hasn't always been 1.9%; it has changed a couple of times in the past. And also note that the red line is the expected profit after transaction fees are taken into account, so a little less than 1.9% of turnover).

dooglus

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Quote from: ingrownpocket on January 31, 2013, 03:56:18 PM

I prefer the old one. Not that there is much difference.

I was talking about the difference between these two:

Quote

New: asdsadasdad23101010 ... ?!"#%#$

Quote

Old: asdsadasdad23101010 ... ?!"#%#$

For me, the first one is much clearer. The 2nd looks kind of grey, not black. Here's a screenshot of how they look to me:

FTWbitcoinFTW

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Quote from: m_yaw on January 31, 2013, 03:57:53 PM

can anyone make an educated guess about s.dice's profits this month (if any)?

About 20K BTC

ingrownpocket

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Quote from: m_yaw on January 31, 2013, 04:03:15 PM

I always thought the 50.000 number is all-time profit not this month's profit.

You were right, the 'Final SD Profit' is the all-time profit.

m_yaw

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"if any": in the latest chart the black line hasn't caught up to the red line yet.

I always thought the 50.000 number is all-time profit not this month's profit.

Kryptox

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Quote from: dooglus on January 31, 2013, 02:55:29 PM

Quote from: Kryptox on January 31, 2013, 04:36:25 AM

Thank you dooglus for explaining this so clearly! I didn't realize SD allows you to split a single transaction into multiple bets now. From what I understand, there was an update to the Bitcoin network not too long ago that doesn't actually allow you to use the exact same transaction ID twice.

It's not splitting a transaction into multiple transactions. It's putting multiple bets into a single transaction. If you're using the reference (satoshi) client, go to the 'send coins' tab and then click 'add recipient' a few times. That way you can send bets to many different satoshidice addresses in a single transaction. You can't send multiple bets to the same address using the standard client, but apparently can with some of the other clients.

Right, I realized this shortly after my response. I don't actually play SD - I think I've maybe placed 2 or 3 minimum bets in the past but I'm finding the math behind it quite interesting, along with how they are relying on a hash to spit out a lucky number. I suppose it's probably the best way to make the game provable for now.

I just happened to come across some of your posts on stackexchange. Really enjoy reading your posts.

I read an interesting article regarding sha256 statistical patterns by Femtosecond, as well as a few other authors. From what I gathered, SD could actually create an even larger edge for themselves by being selective in the hashes they decide to use. Conversely, players could also be selective in choosing the transaction ID's they decide to actually submit to give themselves the edge, including possibly sending transactions ID's that hash out identically to previously calculated hashes. That's my understanding anyway, and I'm not sure how that applies to hmac sha512 but I'd guess it would be similar.

I might just start playing SD! Wink

ingrownpocket

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Quote from: m_yaw on January 31, 2013, 03:57:53 PM

can anyone make an educated guess about s.dice's profits this month (if any)?

December 31, 2012
Final SD Profit: 33274.25422617 BTC (1.879%)

January 01, 2013
Final SD Profit: 43115.08527065 BTC (2.342%)

Today
Final SD Profit: 53139.67029635 BTC (1.795%)

m_yaw

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can anyone make an educated guess about s.dice's profits this month (if any)?

ingrownpocket

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Thanks for the graphs dooglus.

The guy really had a run of bad luck there Lips sealed

BTW, both fonts:

Quote

New: asdsadasdad23101010 ... ?!"#%#$

Quote

Old: asdsadasdad23101010 ... ?!"#%#$

I prefer the old one. Not that there is much difference.

Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 40. (Read 192914 times)