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Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 39. (Read 192889 times)

dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 10, 2013, 03:53:06 PM
#851
Quote from: evoorhees on February 10, 2013, 03:07:57 PM
Quote from: dooglus on February 09, 2013, 11:00:52 PM
My first thought was "I wonder if HE was the whale?".

He wasn't.

Wouldn't it be possible in theory for him to be the whale and for you to be unaware of the fact?

Quote
Total of 2 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Feb-10 11:49am (up to block 220548)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    80922 |       0 (0.00000) |   79539 |    1383 |     859.06 |       0.01 |   114.72 |    859.04 |   0.002
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     3928 |       0 (0.00000) |    3427 |     501 |      67.59 |       0.01 |    17.22 |     67.57 |   0.021
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     6311 |       1 (0.00017) |    5885 |     425 |      95.43 |     159.98 |    11.46 |    -64.55 | 167.650
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     8825 |       3 (0.00036) |    8394 |     428 |     140.72 |     176.03 |    10.03 |    -35.30 | 125.092
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    11346 |       1 (0.00009) |   10921 |     424 |     388.89 |       4.77 |    22.04 |    384.12 |   1.227
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    13470 |       5 (0.00038) |   13070 |     395 |     768.57 |     733.68 |     1.36 |     34.88 |  95.461
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    15749 |      15 (0.00098) |   15302 |     432 |    1195.50 |     331.68 |    55.74 |    863.82 |  27.744
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    17271 |      33 (0.00196) |   16801 |     437 |    2182.82 |    1422.40 |    48.33 |    760.41 |  65.164
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    21150 |      97 (0.00467) |   20673 |     380 |    3873.23 |    6344.68 |    13.18 |  -2471.44 | 163.808
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    29331 |     225 (0.00786) |   28416 |     690 |    5460.75 |    5536.22 |    10.00 |    -75.47 | 101.382
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    95985 |    1485 (0.01555) |   94038 |     462 |   27934.37 |   23784.68 |     1.98 |   4149.68 |  85.145
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    21402 |     505 (0.02399) |   20546 |     351 |    7444.56 |    8052.43 |    15.07 |   -607.87 | 108.165
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    57767 |    1800 (0.03137) |   55578 |     389 |   29262.80 |   26234.40 |     9.33 |   3028.40 |  89.651
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    24268 |    1097 (0.04600) |   22750 |     421 |    9005.87 |    9913.69 |    25.13 |   -907.81 | 110.080
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    30068 |    1825 (0.06146) |   27869 |     374 |    7412.17 |    7228.37 |    31.30 |    183.79 |  97.520
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    38114 |    3539 (0.09386) |   34168 |     407 |   15085.14 |   17073.09 |     7.19 |  -1987.94 | 113.178
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   155329 |   19061 (0.12308) |  135806 |     462 |   77562.44 |   76716.98 |   100.29 |    845.45 |  98.910
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    64360 |   11787 (0.18453) |   52089 |     484 |  152739.06 |  155506.75 |  3314.75 |  -2767.69 | 101.812
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   195336 |   47509 (0.24384) |  147324 |     503 |  344252.62 |  330337.35 |  2056.21 |  13915.27 |  95.958
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   191006 |   70105 (0.36807) |  120360 |     541 |  554838.51 |  547429.17 |  1013.05 |   7409.33 |  98.665
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   967358 |  471403 (0.48804) |  494505 |    1450 |  797196.64 |  780815.15 |  2924.27 |  16381.49 |  97.945
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   470620 |  234711 (0.49969) |  235000 |     909 |  612473.89 |  599047.38 |  5720.47 |  13426.51 |  97.808
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   284994 |  209192 (0.73545) |   75248 |     554 |  280572.11 |  274047.59 |  5454.95 |   6524.52 |  97.675
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    60546 |   47735 (0.79419) |   12370 |     441 |   56810.60 |   55589.11 |  1187.23 |   1221.48 |  97.850
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    44807 |   37974 (0.85687) |    6343 |     490 |   65535.46 |   65083.88 |   400.32 |    451.58 |  99.311
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    63603 |   57831 (0.91595) |    5307 |     465 |   61019.06 |   60566.42 |     0.25 |    452.63 |  99.258
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    13743 |   12664 (0.98019) |     256 |     823 |   22706.33 |   22308.04 |   239.76 |    398.29 |  98.246
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  2884877 | 1182663           | 1687482 |   14732 |  657969.55 |  644806.27 |   243.07 |  13163.28 |  97.999
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   102732 |   47940           |   54503 |     289 | 2478914.76 | 2429637.81 | 22562.70 |  49276.94 |  98.012
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  2987609 | 1230603           | 1741985 |   15021 | 3136884.32 | 3074444.09 | 22805.77 |  62440.23 |  98.009
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      62440.23338066 BTC (1.991%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2186.73667500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       60253.49670566 BTC (1.921%)
Pending Liabilities:           -0.49849999 BTC
Final SD Profit:            60253.99520565 BTC (1.921%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  9663919  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  5502829  (56.9%)
Blockchain MB:   4124.6  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2258.8  (54.8%)



evoorhees
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1023
Democracy is the original 51% attack
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 10, 2013, 03:07:57 PM
#850
Quote from: dooglus on February 09, 2013, 11:00:52 PM

I saw on the S.DICE thread earlier today that Erik's recent "dumps" were a result of a large S.DICE private investor cashing out by selling to Erik, and Erik passing on a part of his shares to the market.  My first thought was "I wonder if HE was the whale?".

He wasn't.
ThickAsThieves
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 10, 2013, 12:39:20 PM
#849
Quote from: wtfvanity on February 10, 2013, 12:24:51 PM
Quote from: dooglus on February 09, 2013, 11:00:52 PM
I saw on the S.DICE thread earlier today that Erik's recent "dumps" were a result of a large S.DICE private investor cashing out by selling to Erik, and Erik passing on a part of his shares to the market.  My first thought was "I wonder if HE was the whale?".

But how do you prove it?

Torture is probably the only option. Or blackmail maybe. Good luck!
wtfvanity
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
WTF???
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 10, 2013, 12:24:51 PM
#848
Quote from: dooglus on February 09, 2013, 11:00:52 PM
I saw on the S.DICE thread earlier today that Erik's recent "dumps" were a result of a large S.DICE private investor cashing out by selling to Erik, and Erik passing on a part of his shares to the market.  My first thought was "I wonder if HE was the whale?".

But how do you prove it?
Bugpowder
sr. member
Activity: 394
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 10, 2013, 10:48:30 AM
#847
Quote from: dooglus on February 09, 2013, 11:00:52 PM

Do you have net profit/loss details for each address?

According to the SD website's leaderboard, 1EP4rM is the 2nd biggest net winning overall.

But until very recently, the 1Di6ux address was listed as being in first place, with many less bets than it had actually made, so I don't really trust the leaderboard page.

I saw on the S.DICE thread earlier today that Erik's recent "dumps" were a result of a large S.DICE private investor cashing out by selling to Erik, and Erik passing on a part of his shares to the market.  My first thought was "I wonder if HE was the whale?".

It's a bit difficult to determine because they pass the coins around between them, and I don't really want to do a serious analysis.  But, looking over the history, it appears to be something along the lines of

Code:
                                      Starting Remaining     
15HJgkvj6roZQvNRC3pUJNKP2YgfEuD8wo     3323       0 BTC  
17sjYPaYJAvtwXM2q5ojzrCiYewnQMBi9y     2271    1233 BTC  
1A3z7M6GhpUejQ5eqgSyjVWRuezeepdKKV      735       0 BTC     
1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk    11199       0 BTC     
1DBH7Xum2re7LXd8YNSe1uRznttsqeMXGK     4211       0 BTC  
1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah     3317    1649 BTC  
1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ    12200      31 BTC  
1MxgyKiKiHEemMUTJuq9NAbjmhKnUL5Ric     2500       0 BTC 
Bowjob
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 10, 2013, 10:06:48 AM
#846
Quote from: Ploo on February 10, 2013, 10:02:08 AM
Quote from: dooglus on February 09, 2013, 04:59:51 PM

Would a flat red line indicate no betting volume for that period?

Little to no betting volume, yes.
Ploo
full member
Activity: 125
Merit: 100
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 10, 2013, 10:02:08 AM
#845
Quote from: dooglus on February 09, 2013, 04:59:51 PM

Would a flat red line indicate no betting volume for that period?
Bowjob
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 10, 2013, 02:31:00 AM
#844
That would be conflict of interest..
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 09, 2013, 11:00:52 PM
#843
Quote from: Bugpowder on February 09, 2013, 09:09:51 PM
The following addresses contributed approximately 40,000BTC to S.DICE's profits.

This is how much they have left.

Code:
                                      Remaining
15HJgkvj6roZQvNRC3pUJNKP2YgfEuD8wo      0BTC 
17sjYPaYJAvtwXM2q5ojzrCiYewnQMBi9y      0BTC
1A3z7M6GhpUejQ5eqgSyjVWRuezeepdKKV      0BTC   
1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk      0BTC   
1DBH7Xum2re7LXd8YNSe1uRznttsqeMXGK      0BTC
1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah   1649BTC
1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ     31BTC 
1MxgyKiKiHEemMUTJuq9NAbjmhKnUL5Ric      0BTC

Any questions?

Do you have net profit/loss details for each address?

According to the SD website's leaderboard, 1EP4rM is the 2nd biggest net winning overall.

But until very recently, the 1Di6ux address was listed as being in first place, with many less bets than it had actually made, so I don't really trust the leaderboard page.

I saw on the S.DICE thread earlier today that Erik's recent "dumps" were a result of a large S.DICE private investor cashing out by selling to Erik, and Erik passing on a part of his shares to the market.  My first thought was "I wonder if HE was the whale?".
ajk
donator
Activity: 447
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 09, 2013, 09:29:33 PM
#842
Quote from: Bugpowder on February 09, 2013, 09:09:51 PM
The following addresses contributed approximately 40,000BTC to S.DICE's profits.

This is how much they have left.

Code:
                                      Remaining
15HJgkvj6roZQvNRC3pUJNKP2YgfEuD8wo      0BTC 
17sjYPaYJAvtwXM2q5ojzrCiYewnQMBi9y      0BTC
1A3z7M6GhpUejQ5eqgSyjVWRuezeepdKKV      0BTC   
1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk      0BTC   
1DBH7Xum2re7LXd8YNSe1uRznttsqeMXGK      0BTC
1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah   1649BTC
1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ     31BTC 
1MxgyKiKiHEemMUTJuq9NAbjmhKnUL5Ric      0BTC

Any questions?

Wow interesting ive seen the 1Di6ux address play a few times and have seen him/her lose some substantial coins and also gain as well, Im surprised that their wallet doesnt have more coins in it than 1.6K
Bugpowder
sr. member
Activity: 394
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 09, 2013, 09:09:51 PM
#841
The following addresses contributed approximately 40,000BTC to S.DICE's profits.

This is how much they have left.

Code:
                                      Remaining
15HJgkvj6roZQvNRC3pUJNKP2YgfEuD8wo      0BTC 
17sjYPaYJAvtwXM2q5ojzrCiYewnQMBi9y      0BTC
1A3z7M6GhpUejQ5eqgSyjVWRuezeepdKKV      0BTC   
1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk      0BTC   
1DBH7Xum2re7LXd8YNSe1uRznttsqeMXGK      0BTC
1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah   1649BTC
1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ     31BTC 
1MxgyKiKiHEemMUTJuq9NAbjmhKnUL5Ric      0BTC

Any questions?
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 09, 2013, 04:59:51 PM
#840
Quote
Total of 67 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Feb-09 12:57pm (up to block 220389)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    80568 |       0 (0.00000) |   79185 |    1383 |     852.12 |       0.01 |   114.72 |    852.10 |   0.002
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     3914 |       0 (0.00000) |    3413 |     501 |      67.08 |       0.01 |    17.22 |     67.07 |   0.022
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     6304 |       1 (0.00017) |    5878 |     425 |      95.18 |     159.98 |    11.46 |    -64.80 | 168.091
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     8819 |       3 (0.00036) |    8389 |     427 |     140.45 |     176.03 |    10.03 |    -35.57 | 125.331
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    11156 |       1 (0.00009) |   10732 |     423 |     386.12 |       4.76 |    22.04 |    381.35 |   1.235
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    13397 |       5 (0.00038) |   12997 |     395 |     765.04 |     733.67 |     1.36 |     31.36 |  95.900
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    15725 |      15 (0.00098) |   15279 |     431 |    1192.47 |     331.67 |    55.74 |    860.80 |  27.814
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    17254 |      33 (0.00196) |   16784 |     437 |    2180.19 |    1422.39 |    48.33 |    757.79 |  65.242
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    21130 |      97 (0.00467) |   20654 |     379 |    3870.68 |    6344.67 |    13.17 |  -2473.98 | 163.916
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    29265 |     224 (0.00784) |   28351 |     690 |    5456.91 |    5532.46 |    10.00 |    -75.55 | 101.385
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    94968 |    1470 (0.01555) |   93037 |     461 |   27861.80 |   23756.56 |     1.98 |   4105.23 |  85.266
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    21353 |     504 (0.02400) |   20498 |     351 |    7442.09 |    8052.00 |    15.07 |   -609.91 | 108.195
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    57334 |    1791 (0.03145) |   55155 |     388 |   29218.93 |   26200.35 |     9.32 |   3018.57 |  89.669
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    24238 |    1097 (0.04606) |   22721 |     420 |    9003.56 |    9913.68 |    25.12 |   -910.11 | 110.108
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    30026 |    1825 (0.06155) |   27828 |     373 |    7410.24 |    7228.37 |    31.30 |    181.87 |  97.546
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    37991 |    3523 (0.09373) |   34062 |     406 |   14937.77 |   16794.58 |     7.19 |  -1856.81 | 112.430
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   155019 |   19022 (0.12307) |  135538 |     459 |   77476.47 |   76606.90 |   100.28 |    869.57 |  98.878
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    63933 |   11707 (0.18451) |   51742 |     484 |  152561.49 |  155349.12 |  3314.75 |  -2787.63 | 101.827
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   192999 |   46917 (0.24373) |  145579 |     503 |  343685.17 |  329773.89 |  2056.21 |  13911.28 |  95.952
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   189586 |   69593 (0.36812) |  119455 |     538 |  554171.19 |  546595.42 |  1013.04 |   7575.77 |  98.633
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   961996 |  468780 (0.48803) |  491770 |    1446 |  793827.72 |  777069.55 |  2924.26 |  16758.16 |  97.889
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   467187 |  232990 (0.49968) |  233291 |     906 |  611258.82 |  597831.58 |  5720.47 |  13427.24 |  97.803
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   283979 |  208452 (0.73547) |   74975 |     552 |  280305.31 |  273784.32 |  5454.95 |   6520.98 |  97.674
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    60325 |   47557 (0.79414) |   12328 |     440 |   56685.92 |   55456.30 |  1187.23 |   1229.61 |  97.831
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    44262 |   37500 (0.85665) |    6275 |     487 |   65319.21 |   64866.25 |   400.29 |    452.96 |  99.307
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    62602 |   56933 (0.91622) |    5206 |     463 |   60667.64 |   60250.35 |     0.24 |    417.29 |  99.312
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    13696 |   12626 (0.98013) |     256 |     814 |   22690.63 |   22292.29 |   239.74 |    398.34 |  98.244
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  2866646 | 1174904           | 1677049 |   14693 |  654036.30 |  640913.84 |   242.94 |  13122.46 |  97.994
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   102380 |   47762           |   54329 |     289 | 2475494.03 | 2425613.46 | 22562.70 |  49880.57 |  97.985
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  2969026 | 1222666           | 1731378 |   14982 | 3129530.33 | 3066527.30 | 22805.64 |  63003.03 |  97.987
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      63003.03264889 BTC (2.013%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2168.10487500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       60834.92777389 BTC (1.944%)
Pending Liabilities:           20.94023601 BTC
Final SD Profit:            60813.98753788 BTC (1.943%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  9608415  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  5467439  (56.9%)
Blockchain MB:   4101.2  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2244.6  (54.7%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 08, 2013, 04:51:13 PM
#839
Quote
Total of 93 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Feb-08 12:49pm (up to block 220252)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    80319 |       0 (0.00000) |   78942 |    1377 |     847.18 |       0.01 |   114.71 |    847.16 |   0.002
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     3908 |       0 (0.00000) |    3407 |     501 |      66.80 |       0.01 |    17.22 |     66.79 |   0.022
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     6296 |       1 (0.00017) |    5870 |     425 |      94.96 |     159.98 |    11.46 |    -65.02 | 168.473
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     8798 |       3 (0.00036) |    8368 |     427 |     138.49 |     176.03 |    10.03 |    -37.53 | 127.104
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    11078 |       1 (0.00009) |   10657 |     420 |     366.46 |       4.70 |    22.03 |    361.76 |   1.283
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    12934 |       4 (0.00032) |   12535 |     395 |     664.88 |     383.60 |     1.36 |    281.27 |  57.695
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    15641 |      15 (0.00099) |   15197 |     429 |    1157.59 |     331.53 |    55.74 |    826.06 |  28.639
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    17089 |      33 (0.00198) |   16622 |     434 |    2061.15 |    1421.87 |    48.32 |    639.27 |  68.984
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    20565 |      95 (0.00471) |   20091 |     379 |    3230.37 |    5842.03 |    13.17 |  -2611.65 | 180.847
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    29038 |     224 (0.00790) |   28126 |     688 |    5243.19 |    5531.49 |     9.99 |   -288.29 | 105.499
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    93176 |    1447 (0.01561) |   91270 |     459 |   26226.80 |   23148.74 |     1.97 |   3078.06 |  88.264
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    21155 |     495 (0.02379) |   20309 |     351 |    7064.44 |    7289.89 |    15.07 |   -225.44 | 103.191
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    56640 |    1767 (0.03141) |   54486 |     387 |   28681.65 |   25881.18 |     9.32 |   2800.47 |  90.236
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    24165 |    1096 (0.04616) |   22649 |     420 |    8886.50 |    9912.91 |    25.12 |  -1026.40 | 111.550
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    29935 |    1817 (0.06146) |   27746 |     372 |    7237.98 |    6915.40 |    31.29 |    322.58 |  95.543
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    37800 |    3505 (0.09373) |   33890 |     405 |   14664.72 |   16466.34 |     7.18 |  -1801.62 | 112.285
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   154624 |   18974 (0.12308) |  135191 |     459 |   76929.37 |   75839.50 |   100.28 |   1089.86 |  98.583
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    63712 |   11666 (0.18450) |   51564 |     482 |  152361.72 |  155139.35 |  3314.75 |  -2777.63 | 101.823
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   192043 |   46675 (0.24368) |  144867 |     501 |  343467.60 |  329572.99 |  2056.19 |  13894.60 |  95.955
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   188492 |   69186 (0.36809) |  118773 |     533 |  553507.71 |  545950.59 |  1013.01 |   7557.12 |  98.635
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   957957 |  466815 (0.48804) |  489701 |    1441 |  792372.50 |  775501.71 |  2924.24 |  16870.79 |  97.871
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   463966 |  231406 (0.49973) |  231657 |     903 |  609984.90 |  596822.44 |  5720.46 |  13162.46 |  97.842
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   283064 |  207779 (0.73546) |   74735 |     550 |  280166.36 |  273652.17 |  5454.94 |   6514.19 |  97.675
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    60220 |   47473 (0.79412) |   12308 |     439 |   56511.28 |   55245.43 |  1187.22 |   1265.85 |  97.760
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    43923 |   37207 (0.85659) |    6229 |     487 |   65207.84 |   64756.46 |   400.29 |    451.37 |  99.308
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    61808 |   56203 (0.91612) |    5146 |     459 |   60421.59 |   60006.72 |     0.23 |    414.87 |  99.313
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    13642 |   12578 (0.98005) |     256 |     808 |   22659.30 |   22260.85 |   239.74 |    398.45 |  98.242
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  2849980 | 1168822           | 1666516 |   14642 |  648075.74 |  635983.84 |   242.77 |  12091.90 |  98.134
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   102008 |   47643           |   54076 |     289 | 2472147.72 | 2422230.18 | 22562.70 |  49917.54 |  97.981
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  2951988 | 1216465           | 1720592 |   14931 | 3120223.47 | 3058214.02 | 22805.47 |  62009.44 |  98.013
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      62009.44683579 BTC (1.987%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2150.95207500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       59858.49476079 BTC (1.918%)
Pending Liabilities:          194.75484221 BTC
Final SD Profit:            59663.73991858 BTC (1.912%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  9557246  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  5435614  (56.9%)
Blockchain MB:   4079.8  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2231.9  (54.7%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 07, 2013, 03:59:41 PM
#838
Quote
Total of 62 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Feb-07 11:52am (up to block 220094)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    79843 |       0 (0.00000) |   78467 |    1376 |     842.03 |       0.01 |   114.71 |    842.01 |   0.002
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     3896 |       0 (0.00000) |    3395 |     501 |      66.27 |       0.01 |    17.22 |     66.25 |   0.022
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     6282 |       1 (0.00017) |    5856 |     425 |      94.72 |     159.98 |    11.46 |    -65.26 | 168.900
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     8767 |       3 (0.00036) |    8337 |     427 |     137.99 |     176.03 |    10.03 |    -38.03 | 127.565
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    11072 |       1 (0.00009) |   10652 |     419 |     366.30 |       4.70 |    22.03 |    361.60 |   1.284
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    12921 |       4 (0.00032) |   12522 |     395 |     664.43 |     383.60 |     1.36 |    280.83 |  57.733
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    15623 |      15 (0.00099) |   15180 |     428 |    1157.27 |     331.53 |    55.74 |    825.74 |  28.647
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    17067 |      33 (0.00198) |   16600 |     434 |    2060.24 |    1421.87 |    48.32 |    638.37 |  69.015
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    20529 |      95 (0.00471) |   20056 |     378 |    3229.38 |    5842.03 |    13.17 |  -2612.64 | 180.902
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    28819 |     223 (0.00793) |   27908 |     688 |    5216.78 |    5525.18 |     9.99 |   -308.40 | 105.912
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    92153 |    1420 (0.01549) |   90274 |     459 |   26168.74 |   23104.52 |     1.97 |   3064.22 |  88.291
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    21031 |     493 (0.02384) |   20187 |     351 |    6929.29 |    7129.35 |    15.07 |   -200.05 | 102.887
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    55845 |    1736 (0.03130) |   53722 |     387 |   28650.95 |   25847.67 |     9.32 |   2803.28 |  90.216
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    24120 |    1093 (0.04612) |   22607 |     420 |    8884.61 |    9911.10 |    25.12 |  -1026.48 | 111.554
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    29869 |    1816 (0.06157) |   27681 |     372 |    7223.56 |    6912.15 |    31.29 |    311.40 |  95.689
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    37583 |    3486 (0.09377) |   33692 |     405 |   14630.88 |   16422.45 |     7.18 |  -1791.57 | 112.245
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   154251 |   18949 (0.12321) |  134843 |     459 |   76902.22 |   75830.97 |   100.28 |   1071.24 |  98.607
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    63434 |   11608 (0.18439) |   51346 |     480 |  152343.42 |  155112.77 |  3314.74 |  -2769.35 | 101.818
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   190915 |   46386 (0.24360) |  144031 |     498 |  343402.23 |  329511.30 |  2056.18 |  13890.92 |  95.955
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   186681 |   68479 (0.36787) |  117672 |     530 |  553187.12 |  545564.96 |  1012.99 |   7622.16 |  98.622
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   952035 |  463897 (0.48801) |  486701 |    1437 |  789349.02 |  772601.00 |  2924.23 |  16748.01 |  97.878
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   458157 |  228455 (0.49962) |  228801 |     901 |  608496.90 |  595192.07 |  5720.45 |  13304.82 |  97.813
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   280572 |  205947 (0.73546) |   74078 |     547 |  279768.32 |  273255.00 |  5454.93 |   6513.32 |  97.672
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    59992 |   47291 (0.79407) |   12264 |     437 |   56450.54 |   55177.42 |  1187.22 |   1273.12 |  97.745
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    43095 |   36488 (0.85637) |    6120 |     487 |   65013.55 |   64553.80 |   400.29 |    459.75 |  99.293
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    59718 |   54285 (0.91602) |    4977 |     456 |   59510.77 |   59113.99 |     0.23 |    396.77 |  99.333
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    13574 |   12518 (0.98019) |     253 |     803 |   22634.35 |   22235.87 |   239.73 |    398.48 |  98.239
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  2826052 | 1157191           | 1654250 |   14611 |  643745.13 |  631682.95 |   242.70 |  12062.18 |  98.126
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   101792 |   47531           |   53972 |     289 | 2469636.86 | 2419638.50 | 22562.70 |  49998.36 |  97.975
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  2927844 | 1204722           | 1708222 |   14900 | 3113382.00 | 3051321.45 | 22805.40 |  62060.55 |  98.007
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      62060.55046000 BTC (1.993%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2126.78667500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       59933.76378500 BTC (1.925%)
Pending Liabilities:           48.38323436 BTC
Final SD Profit:            59885.38055064 BTC (1.923%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  9488892  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  5390013  (56.8%)
Blockchain MB:   4050.6  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2212.9  (54.6%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 07, 2013, 03:20:44 AM
#837
Quote from: Bowjob on February 07, 2013, 02:24:40 AM
Aren't we on track on 26k BTC earnings this month? :3 One can hope..

Still looking kind of flat at the moment:

Bowjob
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 07, 2013, 02:24:40 AM
#836
Aren't we on track on 26k BTC earnings this month? :3 One can hope..
thoughtfan
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 506
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 07, 2013, 02:12:29 AM
#835
Quote from: FTWbitcoinFTW on February 07, 2013, 02:08:50 AM
...
Thanks again dooglus !
Add my thanks to that too please dooglus.  Though silent (till now) on this thread I am a regular and appreciate your making your analysis available to us Smiley
FTWbitcoinFTW
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 07, 2013, 02:08:50 AM
#834
Quote
The whale seems to have stopped playing for now

Code:
02/01/13 : Final SD Profit:            53476.72781492 BTC (1.796%)
02/06/13 : Final SD Profit:            59995.91375077 BTC (1.931%)



+6.5K/week  seems good for me !!


especially without 10K/day swing...

Thanks again dooglus !
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 06, 2013, 04:32:25 PM
#833
The whale seems to have stopped playing for now, just as 5 million previously unavailable SDICE shares hit the market...

Quote
Total of 21 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Feb-06 12:30pm (up to block 219953)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    79445 |       0 (0.00000) |   78070 |    1375 |     836.56 |       0.01 |   114.70 |    836.54 |   0.002
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     3886 |       0 (0.00000) |    3386 |     500 |      66.09 |       0.01 |    17.22 |     66.07 |   0.022
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     6273 |       1 (0.00017) |    5847 |     425 |      93.95 |     159.98 |    11.46 |    -66.03 | 170.282
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     8759 |       3 (0.00036) |    8329 |     427 |     135.46 |     176.02 |    10.03 |    -40.55 | 129.939
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    11063 |       1 (0.00009) |   10644 |     418 |     365.35 |       4.69 |    22.03 |    360.65 |   1.286
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    12888 |       4 (0.00032) |   12489 |     395 |     662.06 |     383.59 |     1.36 |    278.46 |  57.940
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    15604 |      15 (0.00099) |   15161 |     428 |    1155.45 |     331.52 |    55.74 |    823.92 |  28.692
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    17043 |      33 (0.00199) |   16576 |     434 |    2059.02 |    1421.86 |    48.32 |    637.15 |  69.056
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    20474 |      95 (0.00473) |   20001 |     378 |    3227.53 |    5842.02 |    13.17 |  -2614.49 | 181.006
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    28688 |     219 (0.00782) |   27782 |     687 |    5206.20 |    5492.68 |     9.99 |   -286.47 | 105.503
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    91570 |    1410 (0.01548) |   89701 |     459 |   26143.57 |   23094.55 |     1.97 |   3049.01 |  88.337
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    21000 |     492 (0.02383) |   20157 |     351 |    6928.55 |    7128.92 |    15.07 |   -200.37 | 102.892
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    55428 |    1717 (0.03119) |   53324 |     387 |   28635.11 |   25839.55 |     9.32 |   2795.56 |  90.237
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    24045 |    1089 (0.04609) |   22537 |     419 |    8879.86 |    9910.02 |    25.12 |  -1030.15 | 111.601
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    29822 |    1815 (0.06163) |   27635 |     372 |    7220.10 |    6911.79 |    31.29 |    308.31 |  95.730
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    37460 |    3477 (0.09383) |   33580 |     403 |   14587.02 |   16341.27 |     7.17 |  -1754.24 | 112.026
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   153632 |   18868 (0.12318) |  134308 |     456 |   76864.43 |   75777.96 |   100.25 |   1086.46 |  98.587
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    63060 |   11539 (0.18438) |   51044 |     477 |  152321.47 |  155094.58 |  3314.72 |  -2773.11 | 101.821
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   189746 |   46117 (0.24368) |  143134 |     495 |  343261.62 |  329411.64 |  2056.16 |  13849.98 |  95.965
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   184956 |   67825 (0.36776) |  116602 |     529 |  552772.54 |  545067.04 |  1012.99 |   7705.50 |  98.606
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   947385 |  461596 (0.48797) |  484360 |    1429 |  787231.78 |  770686.99 |  2924.19 |  16544.78 |  97.898
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   453190 |  225918 (0.49949) |  226376 |     896 |  607569.73 |  594351.98 |  5720.44 |  13217.74 |  97.824
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   279249 |  204964 (0.73542) |   73739 |     546 |  278542.86 |  271730.11 |  5454.93 |   6812.74 |  97.554
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    59809 |   47155 (0.79423) |   12217 |     437 |   56377.21 |   55110.79 |  1187.22 |   1266.41 |  97.754
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    42566 |   36027 (0.85615) |    6053 |     486 |   64434.49 |   63977.19 |   400.28 |    457.29 |  99.290
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    58799 |   53440 (0.91596) |    4903 |     456 |   59183.08 |   58794.71 |     0.23 |    388.37 |  99.344
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    13517 |   12467 (0.98042) |     249 |     801 |   22591.73 |   22195.51 |   239.73 |    396.22 |  98.246
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           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  2807739 | 1148849           | 1644313 |   14577 |  640664.91 |  628657.13 |   242.55 |  12007.78 |  98.126
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   101618 |   47438           |   53891 |     289 | 2466688.01 | 2416579.99 | 22562.70 |  50108.01 |  97.969
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                                |  2909357 | 1196287           | 1698204 |   14866 | 3107352.92 | 3045237.12 | 22805.25 |  62115.80 |  98.001
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SD Profit before fees:      62115.80652097 BTC (1.999%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2108.28777500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       60007.51874597 BTC (1.931%)
Pending Liabilities:           11.60499520 BTC
Final SD Profit:            59995.91375077 BTC (1.931%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  9432888  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  5355387  (56.8%)
Blockchain MB:   4026.8  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2198.9  (54.6%)



Bowjob
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
February 06, 2013, 07:28:44 AM
#832
This person did not do well. http://satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=de57ad&limit=100&min_bet=0&status=ALL

It was relatively quiet.. then bam!
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