So it must just be that the winning bets happened to be higher stakes on average than the losing bets.
I'll look at the actual bets and see what I find.
As of now, there have been 1021 winning bets and 20953 losing bets.
The total staked on the winning bets is 436.16236956 BTC, making an average of 0.42719 BTC per winning bet. The total profit from the winning bets was 8859.71980712, making the average payout 21.313x. That's a little lower than the current payout, because the house edge used to be a bit higher than it is now.
The total staked on the losing bets is 7783.09448172 BTC, making an average of 0.37145 BTC per losing bet. The total losses from the losing bets was 7750.01507560, a little lower than the amount staked, since a small percentage is returned to losing players.
So the winning bets averaged 15% higher than the losing bets.
That's why the house is doing so badly; on average the winning bets were bigger than the losing bets.
Here's a breakdown of the bets on lessthan 3000. The 4 columns are:
* the number of bets of each size
* the size in bitcoins
* the percentage this size represents
* the cumulative percentage so far
For winning bets (for example, the first line means "there were 71 winning bets of 0.001 BTC. That represents 6.95% of all the winning bets, and 6.95% of winning bets were for this amount or less"):
#bet stake percent cumulative%
71 0.001 6.953967 6.953967
4 0.00102 0.391773 7.345739
1 0.0015 0.097943 7.443683
4 0.002 0.391773 7.835455
2 0.0025 0.195886 8.031342
2 0.003 0.195886 8.227228
1 0.00373426 0.097943 8.325171
6 0.004 0.587659 8.912831
2 0.0045 0.195886 9.108717
5 0.005 0.489716 9.598433
2 0.006 0.195886 9.794319
1 0.00751093 0.097943 9.892262
5 0.008 0.489716 10.381978
1 0.0083 0.097943 10.479922
4 0.00899999 0.391773 10.871694
256 0.01 25.073457 35.945152
1 0.011 0.097943 36.043095
2 0.01116071 0.195886 36.238981
2 0.01157625 0.195886 36.434868
1 0.01215506 0.097943 36.532811
2 0.013 0.195886 36.728697
1 0.014 0.097943 36.826641
1 0.014071 0.097943 36.924584
3 0.015 0.293830 37.218413
1 0.01551328 0.097943 37.316357
2 0.01628895 0.195886 37.512243
1 0.01649073 0.097943 37.610186
37 0.02 3.623898 41.234084
1 0.02142 0.097943 41.332027
1 0.02164236 0.097943 41.429971
1 0.022 0.097943 41.527914
1 0.02205 0.097943 41.625857
1 0.02232143 0.097943 41.723800
2 0.023 0.195886 41.919687
1 0.0231525 0.097943 42.017630
3 0.025 0.293830 42.311459
1 0.02680191 0.097943 42.409403
1 0.027 0.097943 42.507346
2 0.02954911 0.195886 42.703232
23 0.03 2.252693 44.955926
3 0.03125 0.293830 45.249755
2 0.032 0.195886 45.445642
1 0.033 0.097943 45.543585
1 0.034 0.097943 45.641528
2 0.035 0.195886 45.837414
1 0.03762747 0.097943 45.935357
1 0.03959863 0.097943 46.033301
6 0.045 0.587659 46.620960
56 0.05 5.484819 52.105779
1 0.06 0.097943 52.203722
2 0.0625 0.195886 52.399608
1 0.064 0.097943 52.497551
4 0.07 0.391773 52.889324
1 0.08 0.097943 52.987267
148 0.1 14.495593 67.482860
1 0.1075 0.097943 67.580803
1 0.11 0.097943 67.678746
3 0.125 0.293830 67.972576
3 0.15 0.293830 68.266405
39 0.2 3.819785 72.086190
2 0.22 0.195886 72.282076
2 0.25 0.195886 72.477963
42 0.3 4.113614 76.591577
1 0.33 0.097943 76.689520
7 0.4 0.685602 77.375122
75 0.5 7.345739 84.720862
2 0.6 0.195886 84.916748
14 0.7 1.371205 86.287953
1 0.95 0.097943 86.385896
73 1 7.149853 93.535749
1 1.5 0.097943 93.633692
17 2 1.665034 95.298727
6 3 0.587659 95.886386
1 4.999 0.097943 95.984329
40 5 3.917728 99.902057
1 6 0.097943 100.000000
and for losing bets:
#bet stake percent cumulative%
1494 0.001 7.130244 7.130244
13 0.00100001 0.062044 7.192288
64 0.00102 0.305446 7.497733
1 0.00106 0.004773 7.502506
3 0.0011 0.014318 7.516823
2 0.0012 0.009545 7.526369
3 0.0013 0.014318 7.540686
1 0.001329 0.004773 7.545459
1 0.00138329 0.004773 7.550231
1 0.0014 0.004773 7.555004
12 0.0015 0.057271 7.612275
1 0.0016 0.004773 7.617048
1 0.0017 0.004773 7.621820
2 0.0018 0.009545 7.631365
171 0.002 0.816112 8.447478
21 0.0025 0.100224 8.547702
1 0.0027 0.004773 8.552475
1 0.00275 0.004773 8.557247
1 0.0029 0.004773 8.562020
64 0.003 0.305446 8.867465
1 0.0031 0.004773 8.872238
1 0.003177 0.004773 8.877010
1 0.0033 0.004773 8.881783
1 0.0035 0.004773 8.886556
4 0.0036 0.019090 8.905646
24 0.00373426 0.114542 9.020188
141 0.004 0.672935 9.693123
1 0.00429439 0.004773 9.697895
16 0.0045 0.076361 9.774257
156 0.005 0.744523 10.518780
1 0.0055 0.004773 10.523553
1 0.00584955 0.004773 10.528325
14 0.006 0.066816 10.595142
1 0.0065 0.004773 10.599914
3 0.00653124 0.014318 10.614232
7 0.0067 0.033408 10.647640
1 0.0069 0.004773 10.652413
1 0.00692305 0.004773 10.657185
9 0.007 0.042953 10.700138
1 0.0075 0.004773 10.704911
2 0.00751093 0.009545 10.714456
1 0.00778233 0.004773 10.719229
54 0.008 0.257720 10.976948
1 0.008002 0.004773 10.981721
1 0.0083 0.004773 10.986494
1 0.0085 0.004773 10.991266
3 0.00863757 0.014318 11.005584
1 0.0089 0.004773 11.010357
130 0.00899999 0.620436 11.630793
6 0.009 0.028636 11.659428
6 0.0095 0.028636 11.688064
5030 0.01 24.006109 35.694173
1 0.01001 0.004773 35.698945
1 0.01003588 0.004773 35.703718
1 0.01009985 0.004773 35.708490
1 0.01012191 0.004773 35.713263
1 0.01039657 0.004773 35.718036
1 0.01041177 0.004773 35.722808
12 0.0105 0.057271 35.780079
1 0.0108034 0.004773 35.784852
1 0.01091 0.004773 35.789624
1 0.01092729 0.004773 35.794397
81 0.011 0.386579 36.180976
9 0.011025 0.042953 36.223930
1 0.0111 0.004773 36.228702
1 0.0111296 0.004773 36.233475
11 0.01116071 0.052498 36.285973
1 0.0112 0.004773 36.290746
1 0.011331 0.004773 36.295519
1 0.01142318 0.004773 36.300291
1 0.011575 0.004773 36.305064
7 0.01157625 0.033408 36.338472
28 0.012 0.133632 36.472104
14 0.01215506 0.066816 36.538920
1 0.01217875 0.004773 36.543693
1 0.0122 0.004773 36.548466
15 0.0123 0.071589 36.620054
1 0.01234 0.004773 36.624827
1 0.01245 0.004773 36.629600
2 0.0125 0.009545 36.639145
1 0.0126 0.004773 36.643917
5 0.01276282 0.023863 36.667780
1 0.01281269 0.004773 36.672553
17 0.013 0.081134 36.753687
17 0.01302083 0.081134 36.834821
5 0.01340096 0.023863 36.858684
1 0.01347832 0.004773 36.863456
1 0.0134796 0.004773 36.868229
2 0.0137 0.009545 36.877774
1 0.0138 0.004773 36.882547
2 0.0139 0.009545 36.892092
4 0.014 0.019090 36.911182
4 0.014071 0.019090 36.930273
1 0.0141 0.004773 36.935045
1 0.01417724 0.004773 36.939818
1 0.01455739 0.004773 36.944590
2 0.0147 0.009545 36.954135
1 0.01471534 0.004773 36.958908
9 0.01477455 0.042953 37.001861
1 0.0149111 0.004773 37.006634
32 0.015 0.152723 37.159357
1 0.01515274 0.004773 37.164129
1 0.01525252 0.004773 37.168902
5 0.01551328 0.023863 37.192765
1 0.01566666 0.004773 37.197537
1 0.01568165 0.004773 37.202310
1 0.0157 0.004773 37.207083
1 0.0158 0.004773 37.211855
26 0.016 0.124087 37.335942
4 0.01628895 0.019090 37.355033
1 0.0165375 0.004773 37.359805
3 0.0167 0.014318 37.374123
1 0.01677549 0.004773 37.378896
4 0.017 0.019090 37.397986
1 0.01710339 0.004773 37.402759
3 0.018 0.014318 37.417076
1 0.0188 0.004773 37.421849
1 0.01885649 0.004773 37.426621
2 0.019 0.009545 37.436167
1 0.01912406 0.004773 37.440939
1 0.01979932 0.004773 37.445712
1 0.01999999 0.004773 37.450484
756 0.02 3.608075 41.058560
4 0.0202 0.019090 41.077650
1 0.0202464 0.004773 41.082423
6 0.0204 0.028636 41.111058
3 0.0206 0.014318 41.125376
2 0.020808 0.009545 41.134921
13 0.021 0.062044 41.196965
1 0.021012 0.004773 41.201737
1 0.0211111 0.004773 41.206510
1 0.021212 0.004773 41.211282
2 0.021218 0.009545 41.220828
2 0.0214 0.009545 41.230373
10 0.022 0.047726 41.278099
15 0.02205 0.071589 41.349687
1 0.02215939 0.004773 41.354460
1 0.02216183 0.004773 41.359233
5 0.02232143 0.023863 41.383095
1 0.02247 0.004773 41.387868
1 0.02292018 0.004773 41.392641
3 0.023 0.014318 41.406958
1 0.02314836 0.004773 41.411731
11 0.0231525 0.052498 41.464229
1 0.024 0.004773 41.469002
1 0.02406619 0.004773 41.473775
1 0.024255 0.004773 41.478547
9 0.02431013 0.042953 41.521501
1 0.02443342 0.004773 41.526273
1 0.0246 0.004773 41.531046
126 0.025 0.601346 42.132392
10 0.02552563 0.047726 42.180117
3 0.026 0.014318 42.194435
6 0.02604167 0.028636 42.223071
1 0.02674114 0.004773 42.227843
8 0.02680191 0.038181 42.266024
7 0.027 0.033408 42.299432
1 0.028 0.004773 42.304205
8 0.02814201 0.038181 42.342385
1 0.0285 0.004773 42.347158
11 0.02954911 0.052498 42.399656
329 0.03 1.570181 43.969837
1 0.031 0.004773 43.974610
6 0.03102656 0.028636 44.003245
55 0.03125 0.262492 44.265738
6 0.032 0.028636 44.294373
1 0.03202647 0.004773 44.299146
3 0.03257789 0.014318 44.313463
4 0.033 0.019090 44.332554
2 0.0333 0.009545 44.342099
1 0.03406901 0.004773 44.346872
5 0.03420679 0.023863 44.370735
33 0.035 0.157495 44.528230
1 0.03514243 0.004773 44.533002
2 0.03591713 0.009545 44.542548
3 0.036 0.014318 44.556865
2 0.03771298 0.009545 44.566411
1 0.037778 0.004773 44.571183
3 0.038 0.014318 44.585501
1 0.039 0.004773 44.590273
1 0.0391398 0.004773 44.595046
1 0.0395 0.004773 44.599819
2 0.03959863 0.009545 44.609364
105 0.04 0.501122 45.110485
4 0.04157856 0.019090 45.129576
1 0.0417 0.004773 45.134348
1 0.042 0.004773 45.139121
2 0.043 0.009545 45.148666
1 0.04393789 0.004773 45.153439
5 0.044 0.023863 45.177302
3 0.04464286 0.014318 45.191619
85 0.045 0.405670 45.597289
1 0.04519886 0.004773 45.602062
1 0.045766 0.004773 45.606834
1 0.04584037 0.004773 45.611607
2 0.046 0.009545 45.621152
1 0.047 0.004773 45.625925
1 0.048 0.004773 45.630697
1 0.04884156 0.004773 45.635470
1 0.049 0.004773 45.640242
1 0.04924716 0.004773 45.645015
1 0.049437 0.004773 45.649788
1376 0.05 6.567079 52.216866
1 0.05042546 0.004773 52.221639
3 0.051 0.014318 52.235957
3 0.052 0.014318 52.250274
5 0.05208333 0.023863 52.274137
1 0.0525252 0.004773 52.278910
4 0.055 0.019090 52.298000
1 0.0555 0.004773 52.302773
1 0.057777 0.004773 52.307545
1 0.05982513 0.004773 52.312318
26 0.06 0.124087 52.436405
1 0.0602 0.004773 52.441178
32 0.0625 0.152723 52.593901
4 0.064 0.019090 52.612991
1 0.0666 0.004773 52.617764
5 0.0667 0.023863 52.641626
1 0.067 0.004773 52.646399
1 0.0695 0.004773 52.651172
45 0.07 0.214766 52.865938
1 0.07121274 0.004773 52.870711
1 0.072 0.004773 52.875483
10 0.075 0.047726 52.923209
1 0.07793123 0.004773 52.927982
1 0.079 0.004773 52.932754
1 0.07980875 0.004773 52.937527
41 0.08 0.195676 53.133203
1 0.08039827 0.004773 53.137975
6 0.0833 0.028636 53.166611
1 0.085 0.004773 53.171384
1 0.08709104 0.004773 53.176156
1 0.088 0.004773 53.180929
2 0.08928571 0.009545 53.190474
9 0.09 0.042953 53.233427
1 0.09290347 0.004773 53.238200
2 0.095 0.009545 53.247745
1 0.098 0.004773 53.252518
1 0.09852058 0.004773 53.257290
1 0.0995 0.004773 53.262063
3170 0.1 15.129098 68.391161
1 0.101 0.004773 68.395934
2 0.10416667 0.009545 68.405479
16 0.11 0.076361 68.481840
1 0.11318846 0.004773 68.486613
1 0.1145361 0.004773 68.491385
8 0.12 0.038181 68.529566
23 0.125 0.109769 68.639336
2 0.128 0.009545 68.648881
3 0.13 0.014318 68.663199
1 0.132 0.004773 68.667971
2 0.1333 0.009545 68.677516
1 0.135 0.004773 68.682289
1 0.1356 0.004773 68.687062
1 0.13625449 0.004773 68.691834
4 0.14 0.019090 68.710924
1 0.1407124 0.004773 68.715697
96 0.15 0.458168 69.173865
1 0.151 0.004773 69.178638
1 0.155 0.004773 69.183410
7 0.16 0.033408 69.216819
4 0.1667 0.019090 69.235909
1 0.169 0.004773 69.240682
2 0.17 0.009545 69.250227
1 0.175 0.004773 69.254999
4 0.18 0.019090 69.274090
4 0.19 0.019090 69.293180
898 0.2 4.285782 73.578962
1 0.201 0.004773 73.583735
2 0.20833333 0.009545 73.593280
1 0.21 0.004773 73.598053
1 0.212121 0.004773 73.602825
14 0.22 0.066816 73.669642
1 0.222 0.004773 73.674414
2 0.24 0.009545 73.683959
47 0.25 0.224312 73.908271
1 0.25342271 0.004773 73.913043
1 0.25530287 0.004773 73.917816
1 0.256 0.004773 73.922589
1 0.25861035 0.004773 73.927361
1 0.28 0.004773 73.932134
2 0.29 0.009545 73.941679
1 0.296 0.004773 73.946452
736 0.3 3.512623 77.459075
1 0.31 0.004773 77.463848
3 0.32 0.014318 77.478165
9 0.33 0.042953 77.521119
2 0.3333 0.009545 77.530664
3 0.34 0.014318 77.544982
7 0.35 0.033408 77.578390
5 0.38 0.023863 77.602253
1 0.39 0.004773 77.607025
80 0.4 0.381807 77.988832
3 0.4167 0.014318 78.003150
1 0.42 0.004773 78.007922
1 0.43 0.004773 78.012695
1 0.432 0.004773 78.017468
4 0.44 0.019090 78.036558
1 0.445 0.004773 78.041331
2 0.45 0.009545 78.050876
1 0.46 0.004773 78.055648
2 0.48 0.009545 78.065194
1 0.49 0.004773 78.069966
1415 0.5 6.753210 84.823176
1 0.51 0.004773 84.827948
5 0.55 0.023863 84.851811
1 0.555 0.004773 84.856584
1 0.58 0.004773 84.861356
9 0.6 0.042953 84.904310
1 0.618 0.004773 84.909082
1 0.65 0.004773 84.913855
6 0.66 0.028636 84.942490
2 0.68 0.009545 84.952036
269 0.7 1.283826 86.235861
4 0.75 0.019090 86.254952
1 0.7504 0.004773 86.259724
1 0.77272797 0.004773 86.264497
19 0.8 0.090679 86.355176
1 0.89 0.004773 86.359948
6 0.9 0.028636 86.388584
1 0.93 0.004773 86.393357
1 0.94 0.004773 86.398129
1 0.95 0.004773 86.402902
1 0.98400844 0.004773 86.407674
6 0.99 0.028636 86.436310
1 0.9925 0.004773 86.441082
1 0.998 0.004773 86.445855
1804 1 8.609746 95.055601
1 1.001 0.004773 95.060373
1 1.04 0.004773 95.065146
7 1.1 0.033408 95.098554
1 1.11122222 0.004773 95.103326
1 1.13 0.004773 95.108099
1 1.14 0.004773 95.112872
1 1.16 0.004773 95.117644
2 1.2 0.009545 95.127189
1 1.23 0.004773 95.131962
1 1.25 0.004773 95.136735
1 1.3 0.004773 95.141507
1 1.35 0.004773 95.146280
3 1.4 0.014318 95.160598
1 1.45 0.004773 95.165370
5 1.5 0.023863 95.189233
2 1.6 0.009545 95.198778
1 1.75 0.004773 95.203551
1 1.8 0.004773 95.208323
1 1.82 0.004773 95.213096
2 1.99 0.009545 95.222641
284 2 1.355414 96.578056
1 2.1 0.004773 96.582828
1 2.2 0.004773 96.587601
1 2.32 0.004773 96.592373
1 2.4 0.004773 96.597146
3 2.5 0.014318 96.611464
1 2.55 0.004773 96.616236
1 2.6 0.004773 96.621009
1 2.74 0.004773 96.625782
2 2.8 0.009545 96.635327
1 2.99 0.004773 96.640099
146 3 0.696798 97.336897
2 3.1 0.009545 97.346442
1 3.2 0.004773 97.351215
1 3.4 0.004773 97.355987
1 3.5 0.004773 97.360760
1 3.8 0.004773 97.365532
18 4 0.085907 97.451439
1 4.3 0.004773 97.456212
6 4.5 0.028636 97.484847
1 4.7 0.004773 97.489620
1 4.76 0.004773 97.494392
1 4.8 0.004773 97.499165
18 4.999 0.085907 97.585071
492 5 2.348112 99.933184
3 6 0.014318 99.947502
1 8 0.004773 99.952274
6 10 0.028636 99.980910
1 15 0.004773 99.985682
1 42 0.004773 99.990455
1 51 0.004773 99.995227
1 57 0.004773 100.000000
Plotting the cumulative percentage against the stake we can see where the distribution of the winning bets is different than the losing bets:
The two lines are pretty much on top of each other until the 1 BTC point, at which point the losing bets goes ahead. It stays ahead until the 5 BTC point, where the winning bets line catches up.
What this means is that the 1 BTC bets lost more than they should have, and the 5 BTC bets won more than they should have, and all the other stakes are pretty much insignificant.
1 BTC bets:
73 won, 1804 lost, 1877 total. only 3.889% of 1 BTC bets won when it 'should' be 4.578%, or 86 winning bets.
We would expect players to have won 13 more 1 BTC bets than they did.
5 BTC bets:
40 win, 492 lost, 532 total. 7.519% of 5 BTC bets won when it 'should' be 4.578%, or 24 winning bets.
We would expect players to have won 16 less 5 BTC bets than they did.
These two together pretty much explain the overall house loss on lessthan 3000.
