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Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 52. (Read 192889 times)

legendary
Activity: 2506
Merit: 1010
December 14, 2012, 01:23:12 AM
Bitcoin will be doomed to failure if it doesn't shed all of it's fiat currency traits. eg. gambling, interest..

Where is this utopia of which you speak?
sr. member
Activity: 394
Merit: 250
December 13, 2012, 09:25:32 PM
And within 15 minutes of your post a string of Losses from the Whales.

S.DICE up 1700 BTC since your post.    Grin

Somebody has too many coins on their hands....  Undecided

And then down 1500BTC in 8 minutes of betting...

I gotta stop looking at this, too crazy.

These bets are moving the line 1500BTC in a single transaction.  Did veganhippie get another $200,000 stake from poker investors and is blowing it on Satoshi Dice instead?
legendary
Activity: 1624
Merit: 1001
All cryptos are FIAT digital currency. Do not use.
December 13, 2012, 09:25:24 PM
And within 15 minutes of your post a string of Losses from the Whales.

S.DICE up 1700 BTC since your post.    Grin

Somebody has too many coins on their hands....  Undecided

They could be doing so many things with that money instead of gambling it!

Bitcoin will be doomed to failure if it doesn't shed all of it's fiat currency traits. eg. gambling, interest..

Then there is the pool system. From what I've seen, PPS and DGM miners are not being paid fairly. If the ENTIRE BTC network was one giant proportoinal pool, we would ALL get our FAIR share and make shady pool owners and pool hopping a thing of the past.

pEACe
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
December 13, 2012, 08:02:50 PM
And within 15 minutes of your post a string of Losses from the Whales.

S.DICE up 1700 BTC since your post.    Grin

Somebody has too many coins on their hands....  Undecided

They could be doing so many things with that money instead of gambling it!
vip
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1000
AKA: gigavps
December 13, 2012, 07:46:57 PM
And within 15 minutes of your post a string of Losses from the Whales.

S.DICE up 1700 BTC since your post.    Grin

Somebody has too many coins on their hands....  Undecided
sr. member
Activity: 394
Merit: 250
December 13, 2012, 07:44:27 PM
And within 15 minutes of your post a string of Losses from the Whales.

S.DICE up 1700 BTC since your post.    Grin
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
December 13, 2012, 07:20:49 PM
Quote
Results: 2012-Dec-13 03:12pm (up to block 212111)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    54616 |      0 (0.00000) |   53652 |     964 |     371.30 |       0.01 |    73.02 |    371.28 |   0.005
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2995 |      0 (0.00000) |    2508 |     487 |      41.62 |       0.00 |    14.83 |     41.62 |   0.004
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     4567 |      0 (0.00000) |    4154 |     413 |      55.58 |       0.04 |     7.44 |     55.53 |   0.087
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     5740 |      2 (0.00038) |    5330 |     408 |      84.80 |      16.08 |     7.01 |     68.71 |  18.971
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     7129 |      1 (0.00015) |    6722 |     406 |     186.48 |       4.32 |    18.65 |    182.16 |   2.321
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     8922 |      3 (0.00035) |    8531 |     388 |     500.47 |     303.44 |     1.36 |    197.03 |  60.631
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    11489 |     10 (0.00090) |   11089 |     390 |     774.53 |     135.65 |    55.69 |    638.87 |  17.515
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    13057 |     23 (0.00182) |   12613 |     421 |    1705.84 |    1293.38 |    48.30 |    412.45 |  75.821
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    16294 |     69 (0.00433) |   15855 |     370 |    1891.67 |    2651.98 |    13.16 |   -760.31 | 140.193
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    22239 |    164 (0.00760) |   21409 |     666 |    3623.82 |    3453.08 |     9.94 |    170.74 |  95.288
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    60213 |    923 (0.01544) |   58865 |     425 |   14606.95 |   12112.13 |     1.90 |   2494.81 |  82.920
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    18909 |    447 (0.02407) |   18120 |     342 |    5973.32 |    6240.61 |    15.04 |   -267.29 | 104.475
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    35039 |   1088 (0.03138) |   33580 |     371 |   12726.03 |   11157.15 |     9.29 |   1568.88 |  87.672
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    20511 |    934 (0.04645) |   19173 |     404 |    8154.32 |    9295.88 |    25.08 |  -1141.55 | 113.999
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    25581 |   1549 (0.06141) |   23674 |     358 |    5456.37 |    4980.66 |    31.25 |    475.71 |  91.282
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    28961 |   2679 (0.09369) |   25914 |     368 |   12020.23 |   12702.35 |     7.09 |   -682.12 | 105.675
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   118214 |  14429 (0.12249) |  103371 |     414 |   35558.26 |   33881.69 |   100.10 |   1676.57 |  95.285
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    39367 |   7206 (0.18496) |   31754 |     407 |   32413.86 |   31154.66 |   114.63 |   1259.19 |  96.115
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   139451 |  33810 (0.24319) |  105219 |     422 |  110500.97 |  108433.53 |   616.93 |   2067.44 |  98.129
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   108262 |  39623 (0.36753) |   68186 |     453 |  112238.15 |  110841.79 |   212.78 |   1396.36 |  98.756
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   744747 | 363316 (0.48867) |  380158 |    1273 |  464763.14 |  458587.49 |  2923.75 |   6175.64 |  98.671
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   311613 | 155180 (0.49917) |  155696 |     737 |  309176.28 |  300561.31 |  5319.98 |   8614.97 |  97.214
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   209806 | 154059 (0.73596) |   55273 |     474 |  217244.77 |  212606.38 |  5454.67 |   4638.38 |  97.865
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    31310 |  24640 (0.79599) |    6315 |     355 |   39962.85 |   39962.98 |  1187.06 |     -0.13 | 100.000
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    26958 |  22772 (0.85793) |    3771 |     415 |   40112.26 |   39603.09 |   400.08 |    509.17 |  98.731
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    26190 |  23654 (0.91654) |    2154 |     382 |   40024.77 |   39905.15 |     0.04 |    119.61 |  99.701
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    10757 |   9997 (0.98096) |     194 |     566 |   20309.84 |   19965.02 |   239.34 |    344.82 |  98.302
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  2033693 | 822113           | 1198767 |   12813 |  484988.89 |  474825.20 |   184.82 |  10163.69 |  97.904
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    69244 |  34465           |   34513 |     266 | 1005489.71 |  985024.78 | 16723.70 |  20464.92 |  97.965
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  2102937 | 856578           | 1233280 |   13079 | 1490478.61 | 1459849.98 | 16908.52 |  30628.62 |  97.945
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      30628.62760334 BTC (2.055%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        1297.60427500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       29331.02332834 BTC (1.968%)
Pending Liabilities:           -0.04999999 BTC
Final SD Profit:            29331.07332833 BTC (1.968%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  6970351  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  3873105  (55.6%)
Blockchain MB:   2966.4  :  SatoshiDice MB:   1588.5  (53.6%)



sr. member
Activity: 394
Merit: 250
December 13, 2012, 04:32:32 PM
wow. I mean, WOW. Some people are really going nuts. If it weren't for the shareholders I would also have thought the play against themselves just for PR. But this will result in huge shareholder payments, so very unlikely.

Over $130,000. I think some real competition to satoshidice might be coming soon.
Indeed  Wink
But for sure not yet ready for THAT kind of volume. Im still blown away.

It's been coming soon since August, so why not. Day after BFL ships.

First mover advantage, long history of transactions that match the house house edge, advertising, API interface, potential partnerships with real-world casinos...   I don't see clones displacing much volume.  Gonna have to be something significantly better and different.


hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 522
December 13, 2012, 04:22:15 PM
wow. I mean, WOW. Some people are really going nuts. If it weren't for the shareholders I would also have thought the play against themselves just for PR. But this will result in huge shareholder payments, so very unlikely.

Over $130,000. I think some real competition to satoshidice might be coming soon.
Indeed  Wink
But for sure not yet ready for THAT kind of volume. Im still blown away.

It's been coming soon since August, so why not. Day after BFL ships.
sr. member
Activity: 394
Merit: 250
December 13, 2012, 04:17:22 PM
They are back... 10k bet in last hour.  Dice is down by 500BTC.
member
Activity: 75
Merit: 10
December 13, 2012, 03:37:52 PM
Looks like that same big spender is back:

Code:
Details	2012-12-13 19:33:19	lessthan 32000	e5e1cda3	116c4735	1dhAwVy		100.00000000	LOSE	0.49950000	38120
Details 2012-12-13 19:33:10 lessthan 8000 e5e1cda3 88b5b4e8 1dhAwVy 25.00000000 LOSE 0.12450000 38120
Details 2012-12-13 19:33:06 lessthan 16000 e5e1cda3 5e26d819 1dhAwVy 90.00000000 LOSE 0.44950000 38120
Details 2012-12-13 19:33:05 lessthan 32768 e5e1cda3 7af3b26a 1dhAwVy 110.00000000 LOSE 0.54950000 38120
Details 2012-12-13 19:32:59 lessthan 24000 e5e1cda3 4430da1f 1dhAwVy 50.00000000 LOSE 0.24950000 38120
Details 2012-12-13 19:32:57 lessthan 12000 e5e1cda3 90e8c978 1dhAwVy 30.00000000 LOSE 0.14950000 38120
Details 2012-12-13 19:32:49 lessthan 8000 09cbbd68 2d6e08d8 1EP4rM8 25.00000000 LOSE 0.12450000 19769
Details 2012-12-13 19:32:41 lessthan 12000 09cbbd68 d7dc54d9 1EP4rM8 30.00000000 LOSE 0.14950000 19769
Details 2012-12-13 19:32:35 lessthan 16000 09cbbd68 6864302e 1EP4rM8 90.00000000 LOSE 0.44950000 19769
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:27 lessthan 8000 438e367f e6178667 17sjYPa PENDING 25.00000000 LOSE 0.12450000 14629
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:19 lessthan 12000 d00de002 fe9ff550 1Di6ux3 PENDING 30.00000000 WIN 160.05734000 6052
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:15 lessthan 48000 438e367f 1cc76258 17sjYPa PENDING 50.00000000 WIN 66.87776666 14629
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:13 lessthan 16000 438e367f c4dbd4c4 17sjYPa PENDING 90.00000000 WIN 360.24214000 14629
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:11 lessthan 32768 438e367f 1b5d0f90 17sjYPa PENDING 110.00000000 WIN 215.26950000 14629
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:09 lessthan 12000 438e367f ae1cfeb5 17sjYPa PENDING 30.00000000 LOSE 0.14950000 14629
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:08 lessthan 24000 438e367f 94b91cc5 17sjYPa PENDING 50.00000000 WIN 133.50603333 14629
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:07 lessthan 48000 d00de002 c0ba3bc9 1Di6ux3 PENDING 50.00000000 WIN 66.87776666 6052
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:04 lessthan 24000 d00de002 bf22495e 1Di6ux3 PENDING 50.00000000 WIN 133.50603333 6052
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:02 lessthan 16000 d00de002 bfbcf344 1Di6ux3 PENDING 90.00000000 WIN 360.24214000 6052
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:00 lessthan 32000 438e367f a6cd4ecf 17sjYPa PENDING 100.00000000 WIN 200.38430000 14629
Details 2012-12-13 19:28:54 lessthan 32768 d00de002 40db7752 1Di6ux3 PENDING 110.00000000 WIN 215.26950000 6052
Details 2012-12-13 19:28:53 lessthan 8000 d00de002 4115d3c2 1Di6ux3 PENDING 25.00000000 WIN 200.00930000 6052
Details 2012-12-13 19:28:46 lessthan 8000 28511504 6d92758a 1Mn9Zn1 PENDING 25.00000000 WIN 200.00930000 1844
Details 2012-12-13 19:28:43 lessthan 16000 28511504 70c307c5 1Mn9Zn1 PENDING 90.00000000 WIN 360.24214000 1844
Details 2012-12-13 19:28:41 lessthan 48000 28511504 cbb9a41c 1Mn9Zn1 PENDING 50.00000000 WIN 66.87776666 1844
Details 2012-12-13 19:28:39 lessthan 32000 28511504 f758ec85 1Mn9Zn1 PENDING 100.00000000 WIN 200.38430000 1844
Details 2012-12-13 19:28:38 lessthan 24000 28511504 0af1b599 1Mn9Zn1 PENDING 50.00000000 WIN 133.50603333 1844
Details 2012-12-13 19:28:34 lessthan 32768 28511504 c19d8c01 1Mn9Zn1 PENDING 110.00000000 WIN 215.26950000 1844
Details 2012-12-13 19:28:32 lessthan 12000 28511504 bc444ef6 1Mn9Zn1 PENDING 30.00000000 WIN 160.05734000 1844

I need to get some of shares of SatoshiDice.
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
December 12, 2012, 06:50:14 PM
I just noticed that overnight there was almost as much volume of bets refunded as "above max" as in the entire previous lifetime of satoshidice:

Turns out it's because of this kind of bet:

http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=d45ece42



You can send two bets to the same address in a single transaction if you like, but it won't help you evade the maximum bet...
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
December 12, 2012, 06:43:38 PM
Over 100,000 BTC were bet in the last day.  Over 400,000BTC were traded on mt.gox in the past 2 weeks, with a steady increase in price, so casinos could possibly be buying some up.  Especially is Satoshi Dice is quickly recycling back to USD.

62k BTC were bet between my last 2 reports.
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
December 12, 2012, 06:42:08 PM
I just noticed that overnight there was almost as much volume of bets refunded as "above max" as in the entire previous lifetime of satoshidice:

Quote
    #Bets |       Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  2076530 | 844363           | 1219133 |   13034 | 1412956.62 | 1391795.61 |  8548.41 |  21161.00 |  98.502
   +10557 |   4710           |   +5808 |     +39 |  +61966.84 |  +51271.82 | +8360.10 | +10695.03 |  -0.662
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  2087087 | 849073           | 1224941 |   13073 | 1474923.46 | 1443067.43 | 16908.51 |  31856.03 |  97.840

and the lifetime RTP for 'big bets' decreased by almost a full 1%, just from the last day's worth of bets:

Quote
   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    68096 |  33881           |   33987 |     228 |  932526.39 |  921332.21 |  8363.70 |  11194.17 |  98.800
                                |     +719 |   +352           |    +329 |     +38 |  +60041.59 |  +49457.22 | +8360.00 | +10584.38 |  -0.994
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    68815 |  34233           |   34316 |     266 |  992567.98 |  970789.43 | 16723.70 |  21778.55 |  97.806

The RTP on just the big bets in the last 24h is:

49457.22 / 60041.59 = 82.3716%

and the RTP on all bets in the last 24h is:

51271.82 / 61966.84 = 82.7407%

So the house kept a whopping 18% of monies bet!
hero member
Activity: 488
Merit: 500
December 12, 2012, 06:37:44 PM
wow. I mean, WOW. Some people are really going nuts. If it weren't for the shareholders I would also have thought the play against themselves just for PR. But this will result in huge shareholder payments, so very unlikely.

Over $130,000. I think some real competition to satoshidice might be coming soon.
Indeed  Wink
But for sure not yet ready for THAT kind of volume. Im still blown away.
sr. member
Activity: 394
Merit: 250
December 12, 2012, 06:37:04 PM
But where did the casino's get the bitcoins? There hasn't been volume on mtgox to suggest they had bought $100k+ worth of bitcoins.

It takes only 1 BTC to send a thousand 0.001 bets (excluding fees).

Here's a list of all the bets which profited or risked more than 10 BTC between my last two updates here.  These bets represent a profit for satoshidice of 10594.72649778 BTC:

A profit of over 10000 BTC means at least 10000 BTC were bet.

Over 100,000 BTC were bet in the last day.  Over 400,000BTC were traded on mt.gox in the past 2 weeks, with a steady increase in price, so casinos could possibly be buying some up.  Especially is Satoshi Dice is quickly recycling back to USD.


full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
December 12, 2012, 06:16:46 PM
But where did the casino's get the bitcoins? There hasn't been volume on mtgox to suggest they had bought $100k+ worth of bitcoins.

It takes only 1 BTC to send a thousand 0.001 bets (excluding fees).

Here's a list of all the bets which profited or risked more than 10 BTC between my last two updates here.  These bets represent a profit for satoshidice of 10594.72649778 BTC:

A profit of over 10000 BTC means at least 10000 BTC were bet.
hero member
Activity: 634
Merit: 500
December 12, 2012, 06:07:36 PM
But where did the casino's get the bitcoins? There hasn't been volume on mtgox to suggest they had bought $100k+ worth of bitcoins.

It takes only 1 BTC to send a thousand 0.001 bets (excluding fees).
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
December 12, 2012, 05:56:15 PM
These bursts of high volume started the day after Erik came back from his meeting in Macau with casino owners.  Maybe casinos there are doing some robustness testing? It's pocket change for them.

But where did the casino's get the bitcoins? There hasn't been volume on mtgox to suggest they had bought $100k+ worth of bitcoins.
sr. member
Activity: 394
Merit: 250
December 12, 2012, 05:53:58 PM
These bursts of high volume started the day after Erik came back from his meeting in Macau with casino owners.  Maybe casinos there are doing some robustness testing? It's pocket change for them.
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