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Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 77. (Read 192896 times)

legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
July 05, 2012, 09:10:41 PM
#91
Since I wrote that, the effect has stopped.  Now the big bets are more profitable than the small bets.

How is it even possible that such a large population of independant events (those bets up to 4 and those above 4) can differ so heavily from the mean (0 level)? Shouldn`t they even themselves out?
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
July 05, 2012, 03:13:45 PM
#90
Quote
Results: 2012-Jul-05 12:41pm (up to block 187680)

   Address   Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |    BTC In    |   BTC Out    |    Profit    |   RTP 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p        1      0.00002 |     6453 |      0 (0.00000) |   6196 |     257 |        22.70 |         0.01 |        22.68 |   0.085
 1dice1Qf4        2      0.00003 |      901 |      0 (0.00000) |    834 |      67 |         7.23 |         0.00 |         7.22 |   0.024
 1dice2pxm        4      0.00006 |     1414 |      0 (0.00000) |   1384 |      30 |        12.30 |         0.00 |        12.30 |   0.046
 1dice2vQo        8      0.00012 |     1155 |      0 (0.00000) |   1117 |      38 |        15.78 |         0.00 |        15.77 |   0.030
 1dice2WmR       16      0.00024 |     1372 |      0 (0.00000) |   1344 |      28 |        21.50 |         0.01 |        21.48 |   0.076
 1dice2xkj       32      0.00049 |     3141 |      1 (0.00032) |   3129 |      11 |        91.02 |       100.38 |        -9.35 | 110.276
 1dice2zdo       64      0.00098 |     4520 |      5 (0.00111) |   4498 |      17 |       178.02 |       110.74 |        67.28 |  62.208
 1dice37Ee      128      0.00195 |     5953 |     12 (0.00203) |   5894 |      47 |      1211.08 |      1142.21 |        68.86 |  94.314
 1dice3jkp      256      0.00391 |     4419 |     20 (0.00454) |   4387 |      12 |       462.01 |       330.69 |       131.32 |  71.576
 1dice4J1m      512      0.00781 |     5622 |     32 (0.00570) |   5585 |       5 |       769.88 |       330.67 |       439.21 |  42.951
 1dice5wwE     1000      0.01526 |     6980 |     95 (0.01362) |   6882 |       2 |      1434.36 |       746.87 |       687.49 |  52.070
 1dice61SN     1500      0.02289 |     5722 |    125 (0.02187) |   5591 |       6 |      2312.58 |      2548.64 |      -236.06 | 110.208
 1dice6DPt     2000      0.03052 |     5841 |    180 (0.03083) |   5658 |       3 |      1849.04 |      1740.25 |       108.79 |  94.116
 1dice6gJg     3000      0.04578 |     5930 |    296 (0.04997) |   5627 |       7 |      4187.34 |      5317.57 |     -1130.22 | 126.991
 1dice6GV5     4000      0.06104 |     5838 |    365 (0.06255) |   5470 |       3 |      1643.96 |      1509.06 |       134.90 |  91.794
 1dice6wBx     6000      0.09155 |    10107 |    942 (0.09324) |   9161 |       4 |      6542.74 |      6934.11 |      -391.37 | 105.982
 1dice6YgE     8000      0.12207 |    12767 |   1558 (0.12203) |  11209 |       0 |      3051.56 |      2668.70 |       382.86 |  87.454
 1dice7EYz    12000      0.18311 |    14987 |   2859 (0.19085) |  12121 |       5 |      6048.12 |      6430.64 |      -382.52 | 106.325
 1dice7fUk    16000      0.24414 |    36604 |   8871 (0.24239) |  27727 |       6 |      9290.29 |      9018.05 |       272.24 |  97.070
 1dice7W2A    24000      0.36621 |    25173 |   9270 (0.36871) |  15872 |      30 |     11157.77 |     11382.89 |      -225.12 | 102.018
 1dice8EMZ    32000      0.48828 |   277183 | 134987 (0.48721) | 142074 |     121 |     82385.78 |     83902.06 |     -1516.27 | 101.840
 1dice97EC    32768      0.50000 |   109756 |  54795 (0.49954) |  54895 |      65 |     38539.38 |     37612.67 |       926.70 |  97.595
 1dice9wcM    48000      0.73242 |    67585 |  49649 (0.73500) |  17901 |      35 |     38852.41 |     37421.81 |      1430.60 |  96.318
 1dice9wVt    64000      0.97656 |     5695 |   4598 (0.97457) |    120 |     976 |      4901.49 |      4709.70 |       191.79 |  96.087
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 |   625118 |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cumulative Wagers:             219217.47210252 BTC
Cumulative Rewards:            218185.09823143 BTC
Cumulative Fees Paid:             314.58460000 BTC
Cumulative Unreturned:              1.76000000 BTC
----
SD Profit on Completed Bets :       716.02927109 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  1827797  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1165307  (63.8%)
Blockchain MB:  773.9  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 474.7  (61.3%)


legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
July 04, 2012, 07:59:17 PM
#89
Small bets are very profitable.  Big bets are very expensive.

Since I wrote that, the effect has stopped.  Now the big bets are more profitable than the small bets.

Quote
Results: 2012-Jul-04 05:49pm (up to block 187572)

   Address   Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |    BTC In    |   BTC Out    |    Profit    |   RTP 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p        1      0.00002 |     6396 |      0 (0.00000) |   6139 |     257 |        22.41 |         0.01 |        22.39 |   0.086
 1dice1Qf4        2      0.00003 |      898 |      0 (0.00000) |    831 |      67 |         7.19 |         0.00 |         7.19 |   0.024
 1dice2pxm        4      0.00006 |     1412 |      0 (0.00000) |   1382 |      30 |        12.24 |         0.00 |        12.23 |   0.046
 1dice2vQo        8      0.00012 |     1152 |      0 (0.00000) |   1114 |      38 |        15.62 |         0.00 |        15.61 |   0.030
 1dice2WmR       16      0.00024 |     1370 |      0 (0.00000) |   1342 |      28 |        21.29 |         0.01 |        21.27 |   0.075
 1dice2xkj       32      0.00049 |     3110 |      1 (0.00032) |   3098 |      11 |        90.71 |       100.38 |        -9.66 | 110.653
 1dice2zdo       64      0.00098 |     4479 |      5 (0.00112) |   4457 |      17 |       177.61 |       110.74 |        66.87 |  62.351
 1dice37Ee      128      0.00195 |     5951 |     12 (0.00203) |   5892 |      47 |      1210.87 |      1142.21 |        68.65 |  94.330
 1dice3jkp      256      0.00391 |     4417 |     20 (0.00454) |   4385 |      12 |       462.00 |       330.69 |       131.31 |  71.577
 1dice4J1m      512      0.00781 |     5621 |     32 (0.00570) |   5584 |       5 |       769.83 |       330.67 |       439.16 |  42.953
 1dice5wwE     1000      0.01526 |     6882 |     95 (0.01381) |   6784 |       2 |      1428.24 |       746.85 |       681.38 |  52.292
 1dice61SN     1500      0.02289 |     5606 |    121 (0.02161) |   5479 |       6 |      2309.16 |      2539.37 |      -230.20 | 109.969
 1dice6DPt     2000      0.03052 |     5790 |    180 (0.03110) |   5607 |       3 |      1842.33 |      1740.24 |       102.09 |  94.459
 1dice6gJg     3000      0.04578 |     5849 |    294 (0.05033) |   5548 |       7 |      4171.64 |      5313.31 |     -1141.66 | 127.367
 1dice6GV5     4000      0.06104 |     5771 |    358 (0.06207) |   5410 |       3 |      1636.81 |      1443.86 |       192.95 |  88.212
 1dice6wBx     6000      0.09155 |     9881 |    922 (0.09335) |   8955 |       4 |      6467.88 |      6912.13 |      -444.24 | 106.868
 1dice6YgE     8000      0.12207 |    12435 |   1521 (0.12232) |  10914 |       0 |      3032.06 |      2616.39 |       415.66 |  86.291
 1dice7EYz    12000      0.18311 |    14937 |   2850 (0.19089) |  12080 |       5 |      6029.20 |      6374.06 |      -344.85 | 105.720
 1dice7fUk    16000      0.24414 |    36469 |   8837 (0.24236) |  27626 |       6 |      9217.75 |      8980.68 |       237.07 |  97.428
 1dice7W2A    24000      0.36621 |    24505 |   9036 (0.36921) |  15438 |      30 |     10984.14 |     11178.53 |      -194.39 | 101.770
 1dice8EMZ    32000      0.48828 |   275950 | 134351 (0.48708) | 141477 |     121 |     82125.09 |     83627.65 |     -1502.55 | 101.830
 1dice97EC    32768      0.50000 |   108253 |  54052 (0.49961) |  54137 |      64 |     37408.77 |     36644.39 |       764.37 |  97.957
 1dice9wcM    48000      0.73242 |    67184 |  49350 (0.73493) |  17799 |      35 |     38665.31 |     37241.58 |      1423.72 |  96.318
 1dice9wVt    64000      0.97656 |     5695 |   4598 (0.97457) |    120 |     976 |      4901.49 |      4709.70 |       191.79 |  96.087
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 |   620013 |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cumulative Wagers:             217238.77021334 BTC
Cumulative Rewards:            216310.81217506 BTC
Cumulative Fees Paid:             312.02222500 BTC
Cumulative Unreturned:              1.74000000 BTC
----
SD Profit on Completed Bets :       614.19581328 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  1810476  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1156403  (63.9%)
Blockchain MB:  766.5  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 470.8  (61.4%)

legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
July 03, 2012, 08:48:08 PM
#88
Is this just a natural consequence of martingale type betting strategies? Players start with small bets, go on a losing run, doubling up each time, so there are string of profitable small bets for SatoshiDice and then player finally gets a winning (larger) bet, so those larger bets are less profitable from SatoshiDice's point of view.

I don't think so.  The dice don't care whether your bet of 5 BTC is part of a martingale chain or not.  Each bet has the same (slightly negative) expectation no matter what your previous and next bets are.
k
sr. member
Activity: 451
Merit: 250
July 03, 2012, 04:52:05 PM
#87
If it weren't for the big bets, SatoshiDice would be almost 4000 BTC up by now, but instead they're 500 BTC down.
Sounds like SatoshiDice is lazy and use big amounts for their statistics-skewing transactions masqueraded as real bets.

It occurred to me that it was their way of taking a profit.  But if that's the case, why have they lowered the max bet and kept it low?  It doesn't make any sense to be decreasing the bet sizes as the profits grow.

Is this just a natural consequence of martingale type betting strategies? Players start with small bets, go on a losing run, doubling up each time, so there are string of profitable small bets for SatoshiDice and then player finally gets a winning (larger) bet, so those larger bets are less profitable from SatoshiDice's point of view.
legendary
Activity: 1120
Merit: 1152
July 03, 2012, 03:33:17 AM
#86

Yeah, I wish the big bets had been paying out better for SatoshiDice, but we've been unlucky thus far. We lowered the max bet down to 5btc for a while to help curb the losses, and now have raised it back to 25btc.

As of today, SatoshiDice is back in the black after a fairly gruesome couple weeks. Needless to say, it is stressful running this site but hopefully the players are having fun!

Question is are you being actively scammed?
What have you learnt about zero-confirmation transactions and how safe they are?

Also, have you talked to zipconf? I dunno how exactly their service works - is it transaction or address based? - but it'd make for an interesting, high-visibility, high-risk test case. IE: maybe they'd give you a discount on the fees. Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 438
Merit: 291
July 03, 2012, 02:53:26 AM
#85

Yeah, I wish the big bets had been paying out better for SatoshiDice, but we've been unlucky thus far. We lowered the max bet down to 5btc for a while to help curb the losses, and now have raised it back to 25btc.

As of today, SatoshiDice is back in the black after a fairly gruesome couple weeks. Needless to say, it is stressful running this site but hopefully the players are having fun!

Question is are you being actively scammed?
What have you learnt about zero-confirmation transactions and how safe they are?

We know there are theories as to how you could be scammed etc.. but would be interesting if they are actually occurring in the wild, and if there are any changes the bitcoin that could fix it or at least make it harder.

Having to wait 1-6 confirmations is one of bitcoins few weaknesses, so knowing if zero confirmation transactions were reasonably safe in the real world would be "news".
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1023
Democracy is the original 51% attack
July 02, 2012, 06:43:06 PM
#84
If it weren't for the big bets, SatoshiDice would be almost 4000 BTC up by now, but instead they're 500 BTC down.
Sounds like SatoshiDice is lazy and use big amounts for their statistics-skewing transactions masqueraded as real bets.

It occurred to me that it was their way of taking a profit.  But if that's the case, why have they lowered the max bet and kept it low?  It doesn't make any sense to be decreasing the bet sizes as the profits grow.

Yeah, I wish the big bets had been paying out better for SatoshiDice, but we've been unlucky thus far. We lowered the max bet down to 5btc for a while to help curb the losses, and now have raised it back to 25btc.

As of today, SatoshiDice is back in the black after a fairly gruesome couple weeks. Needless to say, it is stressful running this site but hopefully the players are having fun!
staff
Activity: 4284
Merit: 8808
July 02, 2012, 05:19:16 PM
#83
It occurred to me that it was their way of taking a profit.  But if that's the case, why have they lowered the max bet and kept it low?  It doesn't make any sense to be decreasing the bet sizes as the profits grow.

It makes sense after you've seen people argue that their 'losses' and betcaps are "proof" that a favored gambling strategy is a "sure win".

Same reason casinos promote grand stories of card counting blackjack sharks bilking casinos and pretend to be concerned about card counters,  while simultaneously employing multi deck continuous shuffling machines that moot card counting. Smiley

legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
July 02, 2012, 03:36:35 PM
#82


Quote
Results: 2012-Jul-02 01:23pm (up to block 187242)

   Address   Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |    BTC In    |   BTC Out    |    Profit    |   RTP 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p        1      0.00002 |     6250 |      0 (0.00000) |   5992 |     257 |        21.71 |         0.01 |        21.69 |   0.088
 1dice1Qf4        2      0.00003 |      888 |      0 (0.00000) |    821 |      67 |         7.15 |         0.00 |         7.14 |   0.025
 1dice2pxm        4      0.00006 |     1397 |      0 (0.00000) |   1367 |      30 |        12.15 |         0.00 |        12.15 |   0.046
 1dice2vQo        8      0.00012 |     1102 |      0 (0.00000) |   1064 |      38 |        15.19 |         0.00 |        15.18 |   0.031
 1dice2WmR       16      0.00024 |     1358 |      0 (0.00000) |   1330 |      28 |        21.01 |         0.01 |        20.99 |   0.076
 1dice2xkj       32      0.00049 |     3092 |      1 (0.00032) |   3080 |      11 |        89.89 |       100.38 |       -10.48 | 111.666
 1dice2zdo       64      0.00098 |     4460 |      5 (0.00113) |   4438 |      17 |       176.73 |       110.74 |        65.99 |  62.661
 1dice37Ee      128      0.00195 |     5901 |     12 (0.00205) |   5840 |      47 |      1197.34 |      1142.16 |        55.17 |  95.392
 1dice3jkp      256      0.00391 |     4399 |     20 (0.00456) |   4366 |      12 |       458.86 |       330.67 |       128.18 |  72.064
 1dice4J1m      512      0.00781 |     5462 |     32 (0.00587) |   5424 |       5 |       748.28 |       330.60 |       417.67 |  44.182
 1dice5wwE     1000      0.01526 |     6656 |     93 (0.01398) |   6558 |       2 |      1377.12 |       711.48 |       665.64 |  51.664
 1dice61SN     1500      0.02289 |     5172 |    108 (0.02091) |   5057 |       6 |      1913.72 |      2135.76 |      -222.03 | 111.602
 1dice6DPt     2000      0.03052 |     5628 |    174 (0.03096) |   5447 |       3 |      1786.52 |      1635.04 |       151.47 |  91.521
 1dice6gJg     3000      0.04578 |     5518 |    277 (0.05028) |   5232 |       7 |      3791.62 |      4916.50 |     -1124.87 | 129.667
 1dice6GV5     4000      0.06104 |     5586 |    344 (0.06163) |   5238 |       3 |      1619.49 |      1429.16 |       190.33 |  88.247
 1dice6wBx     6000      0.09155 |     9550 |    893 (0.09358) |   8650 |       4 |      6146.27 |      6745.93 |      -599.66 | 109.756
 1dice6YgE     8000      0.12207 |    10612 |   1297 (0.12232) |   9306 |       0 |      2952.77 |      2544.50 |       408.26 |  86.173
 1dice7EYz    12000      0.18311 |    14629 |   2789 (0.19087) |  11823 |       5 |      5962.82 |      6312.56 |      -349.74 | 105.865
 1dice7fUk    16000      0.24414 |    35975 |   8723 (0.24258) |  27236 |       6 |      9011.21 |      8694.07 |       317.13 |  96.481
 1dice7W2A    24000      0.36621 |    24066 |   8887 (0.36977) |  15147 |      30 |     10854.86 |     11103.44 |      -248.57 | 102.290
 1dice8EMZ    32000      0.48828 |   272702 | 132734 (0.48701) | 139817 |     121 |     80984.06 |     82596.47 |     -1612.40 | 101.991
 1dice97EC    32768      0.50000 |   106458 |  53176 (0.49984) |  53210 |      64 |     36476.09 |     35805.28 |       670.81 |  98.161
 1dice9wcM    48000      0.73242 |    66349 |  48731 (0.73487) |  17581 |      32 |     38074.31 |     36695.62 |      1378.68 |  96.379
 1dice9wVt    64000      0.97656 |     5694 |   4598 (0.97457) |    120 |     975 |      4901.49 |      4709.70 |       191.79 |  96.087
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                                 |   608904 |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cumulative Wagers:             212865.75014757 BTC
Cumulative Rewards:            212275.45778249 BTC
Cumulative Fees Paid:             306.38627500 BTC
Cumulative Unreturned:             39.71568201 BTC
----
SD Profit on Completed Bets :       244.19040807 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  1761683  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1136393  (64.5%)
Blockchain MB:  746.3  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 462.7  (62.0%)
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
July 02, 2012, 04:50:20 AM
#81
If it weren't for the big bets, SatoshiDice would be almost 4000 BTC up by now, but instead they're 500 BTC down.
Sounds like SatoshiDice is lazy and use big amounts for their statistics-skewing transactions masqueraded as real bets.

It occurred to me that it was their way of taking a profit.  But if that's the case, why have they lowered the max bet and kept it low?  It doesn't make any sense to be decreasing the bet sizes as the profits grow.
full member
Activity: 185
Merit: 100
July 02, 2012, 04:48:05 AM
#80
If it weren't for the big bets, SatoshiDice would be almost 4000 BTC up by now, but instead they're 500 BTC down.
Sounds like SatoshiDice is lazy and use big amounts for their statistics-skewing transactions masqueraded as real bets.
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
July 01, 2012, 04:47:59 PM
#79
You mean Satoshi lose more money with big bets ? is the graph now right ?

He lose alote of money with big bets ans makes money with small bets ?
is this right so ?

Yes, that's what I mean.  The graph is right, but a little out of date.  Here's an up-to-date one;



Quote
Results: 2012-Jul-01 02:44pm (up to block 187092)

   Address   Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |    BTC In    |   BTC Out    |    Profit    |   RTP 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p        1      0.00002 |     6201 |      0 (0.00000) |   5943 |     256 |        21.36 |         0.01 |        21.34 |   0.090
 1dice1Qf4        2      0.00003 |      882 |      0 (0.00000) |    814 |      67 |         7.12 |         0.00 |         7.12 |   0.025
 1dice2pxm        4      0.00006 |     1382 |      0 (0.00000) |   1351 |      30 |        11.99 |         0.00 |        11.99 |   0.047
 1dice2vQo        8      0.00012 |     1092 |      0 (0.00000) |   1055 |      36 |        15.05 |         0.00 |        15.05 |   0.031
 1dice2WmR       16      0.00024 |     1349 |      0 (0.00000) |   1321 |      27 |        20.65 |         0.01 |        20.64 |   0.075
 1dice2xkj       32      0.00049 |     3075 |      1 (0.00033) |   3062 |      11 |        89.10 |       100.38 |       -11.27 | 112.650
 1dice2zdo       64      0.00098 |     4438 |      5 (0.00113) |   4415 |      17 |       175.99 |       110.74 |        65.24 |  62.927
 1dice37Ee      128      0.00195 |     5843 |     12 (0.00206) |   5803 |      26 |      1176.62 |      1142.07 |        34.54 |  97.064
 1dice3jkp      256      0.00391 |     4369 |     20 (0.00459) |   4335 |      12 |       458.47 |       330.67 |       127.80 |  72.125
 1dice4J1m      512      0.00781 |     5402 |     32 (0.00593) |   5364 |       5 |       723.43 |       330.50 |       392.93 |  45.685
 1dice5wwE     1000      0.01526 |     6570 |     92 (0.01402) |   6472 |       2 |      1306.15 |       695.34 |       610.80 |  53.236
 1dice61SN     1500      0.02289 |     5088 |    108 (0.02125) |   4974 |       6 |      1598.74 |      2134.22 |      -535.47 | 133.494
 1dice6DPt     2000      0.03052 |     5583 |    173 (0.03103) |   5403 |       3 |      1750.55 |      1619.07 |       131.48 |  92.489
 1dice6gJg     3000      0.04578 |     5445 |    275 (0.05057) |   5163 |       6 |      3608.20 |      4704.79 |     -1096.58 | 130.392
 1dice6GV5     4000      0.06104 |     5515 |    340 (0.06171) |   5170 |       3 |      1602.86 |      1402.21 |       200.65 |  87.481
 1dice6wBx     6000      0.09155 |     9358 |    879 (0.09400) |   8472 |       4 |      5961.81 |      6560.49 |      -598.68 | 110.042
 1dice6YgE     8000      0.12207 |    10325 |   1259 (0.12204) |   9057 |       0 |      2891.30 |      2498.25 |       393.04 |  86.406
 1dice7EYz    12000      0.18311 |    14500 |   2768 (0.19109) |  11717 |       5 |      5905.06 |      6230.00 |      -324.94 | 105.503
 1dice7fUk    16000      0.24414 |    35833 |   8688 (0.24253) |  27134 |       6 |      8967.36 |      8620.49 |       346.86 |  96.132
 1dice7W2A    24000      0.36621 |    23916 |   8841 (0.37015) |  15044 |      30 |     10783.37 |     11044.96 |      -261.59 | 102.426
 1dice8EMZ    32000      0.48828 |   270535 | 131680 (0.48700) | 138711 |     120 |     80495.15 |     82188.83 |     -1693.67 | 102.104
 1dice97EC    32768      0.50000 |   105990 |  52945 (0.49986) |  52975 |      61 |     36154.48 |     35516.80 |       637.68 |  98.236
 1dice9wcM    48000      0.73242 |    66124 |  48556 (0.73470) |  17534 |      31 |     38033.84 |     36657.31 |      1376.52 |  96.381
 1dice9wVt    64000      0.97656 |     5692 |   4598 (0.97457) |    120 |     973 |      4901.49 |      4709.70 |       191.79 |  96.087
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 |   604507 |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cumulative Wagers:             210867.93922406 BTC
Cumulative Rewards:            210773.98925246 BTC
Cumulative Fees Paid:             304.16610000 BTC
Cumulative Unreturned:             30.63706275 BTC
----
SD Profit on Completed Bets :      -240.85319115 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  1737546  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1128216  (64.9%)
Blockchain MB:  736.9  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 459.5  (62.4%)
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
July 01, 2012, 04:38:29 PM
#78
Here's an interesting graph:



It splits the profit/loss into that caused by bets under 4 BTC and that caused by bets of 4 BTC or more.

There's a marked difference.  Small bets are very profitable.  Big bets are very expensive.

If it weren't for the big bets, SatoshiDice would be almost 4000 BTC up by now, but instead they're 500 BTC down.

Everything was looking fine until the first week of June.  Since then there's been a big difference between the profitability of "big" and "small" bets.

Edit: fixed the graph.  the >= and < labels were the wrong way around

You mean Satoshi lose more money with big bets ? is the graph now right ?

He lose alote of money with big bets ans makes money with small bets ?
is this right so ?
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
July 01, 2012, 02:14:43 PM
#77
Here's an interesting graph:



It splits the profit/loss into that caused by bets under 4 BTC and that caused by bets of 4 BTC or more.

There's a marked difference.  Small bets are very profitable.  Big bets are very expensive.

If it weren't for the big bets, SatoshiDice would be almost 4000 BTC up by now, but instead they're 500 BTC down.

Everything was looking fine until the first week of June.  Since then there's been a big difference between the profitability of "big" and "small" bets.

Edit: fixed the graph.  the >= and < labels were the wrong way around
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
June 29, 2012, 05:01:24 PM
#76
Reminds me of my poker playing days where you can only ever lose. But I was never good enough to run this badly:



legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
June 29, 2012, 02:54:46 PM
#75
Here are updated stats, along with a graph showing profit over time, along with expected profits given 1.0% and 1.5% house edges.

Quote
Results: 2012-Jun-29 12:47pm

   Address   Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |    BTC In    |   BTC Out    |    Profit    |   RTP% 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p        1      0.00002 |     5968 |      0 (0.00000) |   5716 |     251 |        20.07 |         0.01 |        20.05 |   0.096
 1dice1Qf4        2      0.00003 |      865 |      0 (0.00000) |    798 |      67 |         7.06 |         0.00 |         7.06 |   0.025
 1dice2pxm        4      0.00006 |     1372 |      0 (0.00000) |   1342 |      30 |        11.93 |         0.00 |        11.92 |   0.047
 1dice2vQo        8      0.00012 |     1087 |      0 (0.00000) |   1051 |      36 |        14.93 |         0.00 |        14.93 |   0.032
 1dice2WmR       16      0.00024 |     1335 |      0 (0.00000) |   1308 |      27 |        20.23 |         0.01 |        20.21 |   0.075
 1dice2xkj       32      0.00049 |     3067 |      1 (0.00033) |   3055 |      11 |        88.65 |       100.38 |       -11.72 | 113.224
 1dice2zdo       64      0.00098 |     4425 |      5 (0.00113) |   4403 |      17 |       175.83 |       110.74 |        65.08 |  62.983
 1dice37Ee      128      0.00195 |     5739 |     12 (0.00210) |   5702 |      25 |      1087.25 |      1141.67 |       -54.42 | 105.006
 1dice3jkp      256      0.00391 |     4352 |     19 (0.00438) |   4321 |      12 |       458.06 |       256.56 |       201.50 |  56.010
 1dice4J1m      512      0.00781 |     5285 |     32 (0.00606) |   5248 |       5 |       701.77 |       330.41 |       371.35 |  47.083
 1dice5wwE     1000      0.01526 |     6367 |     87 (0.01367) |   6277 |       2 |      1257.79 |       655.93 |       601.85 |  52.150
 1dice61SN     1500      0.02289 |     5019 |    107 (0.02134) |   4907 |       5 |      1380.24 |      2091.00 |      -710.75 | 151.495
 1dice6DPt     2000      0.03052 |     5498 |    171 (0.03112) |   5324 |       3 |      1595.74 |      1459.85 |       135.88 |  91.484
 1dice6gJg     3000      0.04578 |     5394 |    272 (0.05048) |   5116 |       6 |      3476.60 |      4491.24 |     -1014.64 | 129.185
 1dice6GV5     4000      0.06104 |     5378 |    333 (0.06195) |   5042 |       3 |      1578.36 |      1378.16 |       200.19 |  87.316
 1dice6wBx     6000      0.09155 |     9136 |    856 (0.09373) |   8277 |       3 |      5842.87 |      6421.04 |      -578.17 | 109.895
 1dice6YgE     8000      0.12207 |     9609 |   1166 (0.12134) |   8443 |       0 |      2813.96 |      2430.33 |       383.62 |  86.367
 1dice7EYz    12000      0.18311 |    14200 |   2709 (0.19088) |  11483 |       5 |      5857.29 |      6191.28 |      -333.98 | 105.702
 1dice7fUk    16000      0.24414 |    35530 |   8609 (0.24235) |  26914 |       5 |      8893.77 |      8541.12 |       352.65 |  96.035
 1dice7W2A    24000      0.36621 |    23601 |   8726 (0.37022) |  14844 |      30 |     10701.69 |     10988.45 |      -286.76 | 102.680
 1dice8EMZ    32000      0.48828 |   266842 | 129874 (0.48693) | 136844 |     117 |     80094.30 |     81849.88 |     -1755.57 | 102.192
 1dice97EC    32768      0.50000 |   105161 |  52539 (0.49990) |  52561 |      60 |     35780.42 |     35176.72 |       603.69 |  98.313
 1dice9wcM    48000      0.73242 |    65717 |  48254 (0.73463) |  17431 |      31 |     37953.57 |     36577.94 |      1375.63 |  96.375
 1dice9wVt    64000      0.97656 |     5687 |   4598 (0.97457) |    120 |     968 |      4901.49 |      4709.70 |       191.79 |  96.087
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 |   596634 |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cumulative Wagers:             208853.68253522 BTC
Cumulative Rewards:            209038.94171709 BTC
Cumulative Fees Paid:             300.23065000 BTC
Cumulative Unreturned:              3.31029257 BTC
----
SD Profit on Completed Bets :      -488.80012444 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  1692649  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1113632  (65.8%)
Blockchain MB:  718.9  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 453.4  (63.1%)

legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
June 27, 2012, 08:03:28 PM
#74
i have noticed something off regarding SatoshiDice.    on june 25th, it appears they made some modifications  to the system, and it appears that if i add up all of the bets that i have sent to the following address:
1dice7fUkz5h4z2wPc1wLMPWgB5mDwKDx

that the payout odds coming back, were on average  1:7.91  instead of the approximately 1:4 that is advertised on the front of the website.

How many bets have you made to that address since June 25th, and how many won?

SatoshiDice is provably honest - they use a publicly known mathematical function to decide whether you won or not, using secret numbers decided before the game started.  A hash of the secret numbers was also published before the game started, so they can't change it.

Looking at the blockchain since June 25th (I started counting at block 186101), I can see that they have processed 3808 bets to that address. 1 was refunded for being over the max bet, 3 haven't yet been paid out either way, and of the remaining 3804, 885 won.  That's 23.26% of them that won (1:4.298).  We would expect 24.41% to win in the long run (1:4.096), so that's pretty close.  It's certainly nowhere near the 1:7.91 that you saw.
newbie
Activity: 15
Merit: 0
June 27, 2012, 07:38:41 PM
#73
i have noticed something off regarding SatoshiDice.    on june 25th, it appears they made some modifications  to the system, and it appears that if i add up all of the bets that i have sent to the following address:
1dice7fUkz5h4z2wPc1wLMPWgB5mDwKDx

that the payout odds coming back, were on average  1:7.91  instead of the approximately 1:4 that is advertised on the front of the website. of course, the payout had stayed at 4x.   something seems to be broken and maybe they need to look into this.   of course i'm a little bit pissed off because i have already lost a lot of money before i realized this was going on.  i could sense that something was off but by the time i actually sat down and did the counting of # of wins vs # of losses i didn't realize that the odds were stacked up against me at approx 1:8...




legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
June 25, 2012, 04:36:19 PM
#72
How about the potential that there are multiple wagers with the same transaction hash?  That would appear in the results.

That's an interesting attack.  I'll check and see if there are any duplicate transaction IDs with SatoshiDice bets in them.

I looked at just the bets during the period of heaviest losses for SatoshiDice, the 800 blocks 182800 through 183599, and found the following.  My theory of it being double-spent longshot bets is clearly wrong.  The vast majority of the losses were from "under 32000" bets - pretty much coin tosses.  "under 4000" had the highest RTP, but much smaller losses, due to smaller volume of bets:

Quote
  Address   Target   Should Win |  #Bets |    Win |   Lose |        In |       Out |    Profit |     RTP
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p        1      0.00002 |     51 |      0 |     37 |      0.20 |      0.00 |      0.20 |    0.0%
 1dice1Qf4        2      0.00003 |     32 |      0 |     29 |      0.27 |      0.00 |      0.27 |    0.0%
 1dice2pxm        4      0.00006 |     20 |      0 |     17 |      0.26 |      0.00 |      0.26 |    0.0%
 1dice2vQo        8      0.00012 |     47 |      0 |     44 |      0.96 |      0.00 |      0.96 |    0.0%
 1dice2WmR       16      0.00024 |     26 |      0 |     25 |      1.18 |      0.00 |      1.18 |    0.0%
 1dice2xkj       32      0.00049 |     20 |      0 |     20 |      1.48 |      0.00 |      1.48 |    0.1%
 1dice2zdo       64      0.00098 |     49 |      0 |     47 |     10.43 |      0.03 |     10.40 |    0.3%
 1dice37Ee      128      0.00195 |    506 |      0 |    502 |     42.46 |      0.11 |     42.35 |    0.3%
 1dice3jkp      256      0.00391 |    115 |      1 |    111 |     19.39 |     10.06 |      9.33 |   51.9%
 1dice4J1m      512      0.00781 |    107 |      0 |    106 |     34.24 |      0.14 |     34.09 |    0.4%
 1dice5wwE     1000      0.01526 |    222 |      2 |    215 |    120.98 |      1.27 |    119.71 |    1.1%
 1dice61SN     1500      0.02289 |     37 |      1 |     35 |     56.35 |      0.31 |     56.03 |    0.6%
 1dice6DPt     2000      0.03052 |     94 |      2 |     92 |     56.92 |      1.25 |     55.66 |    2.2%
 1dice6gJg     3000      0.04578 |    105 |      3 |    101 |     83.61 |      1.26 |     82.34 |    1.5%
 1dice6GV5     4000      0.06104 |    135 |     12 |    123 |     94.54 |    224.38 |   -129.84 |  237.3%
 1dice6wBx     6000      0.09155 |    232 |     20 |    211 |    851.87 |   1168.98 |   -317.11 |  137.2%
 1dice6YgE     8000      0.12207 |    384 |     37 |    340 |    186.28 |    112.71 |     73.57 |   60.5%
 1dice7EYz    12000      0.18311 |   4309 |    819 |   3488 |    626.54 |    861.54 |   -235.00 |  137.5%
 1dice7fUk    16000      0.24414 |   3124 |    793 |   2322 |    427.20 |    467.04 |    -39.83 |  109.3%
 1dice7W2A    24000      0.36621 |   1342 |    501 |    824 |   1483.96 |   1635.54 |   -151.58 |  110.2%
 1dice8EMZ    32000      0.48828 |  50458 |  24498 |  25726 |  24846.77 |  26874.90 |  -2028.12 |  108.2%
 1dice97EC    32768      0.50000 |   3569 |   1783 |   1754 |   2187.61 |   2476.62 |   -289.00 |  113.2%
 1dice9wcM    48000      0.73242 |   4849 |   3571 |   1251 |   4339.44 |   4312.58 |     26.86 |   99.4%
 1dice9wVt    64000      0.97656 |    283 |    263 |     10 |    294.68 |    269.88 |     24.79 |   91.6%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(I'm ignoring bets which weren't paid out within the 800 blocks in question, though they count in the 'bets' column, and am also ignoring fees paid)
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