Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 79.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: dooglus on June 22, 2012, 04:05:53 PM

Here's the latest output:

Quote

Total Bets Made: 543412
Cumulative Wagers: 195424.98368132 BTC
Cumulative Rewards: 193333.06261702 BTC
Cumulative Fees Paid: 269.38745000 BTC
Cumulative Unreturned: 2038.08327919 BTC
----
SD Profit/Loss From Games: 2091.92106430 BTC
SD Profit/Loss With Fees: 1822.53361430 BTC

I don't know if that means they're up 2091 BTC but owe 2038 BTC in unreturned bets, or whether the 2091 BTC is profit.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Here's the latest output:

Quote

Results: 2012-Jun-22 12:50pm

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | Accounted-for
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 4941 | 0 (0.00000) | 4634 (1.00000) | 198 (0.04273) | (0.978)
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 635 | 0 (0.00000) | 470 (1.00000) | 59 (0.12553) | (0.833)
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 1152 | 0 (0.00000) | 1016 (1.00000) | 30 (0.02953) | (0.908)
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 832 | 0 (0.00000) | 687 (1.00000) | 34 (0.04949) | (0.867)
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 1119 | 0 (0.00000) | 910 (1.00000) | 26 (0.02857) | (0.836)
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 2842 | 1 (0.00038) | 2647 (0.99962) | 11 (0.00415) | (0.936)
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 4053 | 5 (0.00130) | 3850 (0.99870) | 15 (0.00389) | (0.955)
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 5460 | 11 (0.00209) | 5240 (0.99791) | 25 (0.00476) | (0.966)
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 4080 | 17 (0.00437) | 3869 (0.99563) | 11 (0.00283) | (0.955)
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 4903 | 29 (0.00615) | 4685 (0.99385) | 5 (0.00106) | (0.962)
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 5496 | 70 (0.01335) | 5172 (0.98665) | 1 (0.00019) | (0.954)
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 4677 | 94 (0.02126) | 4327 (0.97874) | 5 (0.00113) | (0.946)
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 4966 | 149 (0.03162) | 4563 (0.96838) | 3 (0.00064) | (0.949)
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 5063 | 239 (0.04973) | 4567 (0.95027) | 5 (0.00104) | (0.950)
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 4916 | 291 (0.06243) | 4370 (0.93757) | 3 (0.00064) | (0.949)
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 7813 | 699 (0.09334) | 6790 (0.90666) | 3 (0.00040) | (0.959)
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 6873 | 800 (0.12094) | 5815 (0.87906) | 0 (0.00000) | (0.962)
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 13042 | 2369 (0.18949) | 10133 (0.81051) | 3 (0.00024) | (0.959)
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 29846 | 7154 (0.24374) | 22197 (0.75626) | 4 (0.00014) | (0.984)
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 16400 | 5925 (0.37234) | 9988 (0.62766) | 23 (0.00145) | (0.972)
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 250677 | 121619 (0.48692) | 128151 (0.51308) | 111 (0.00044) | (0.997)
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 98548 | 48494 (0.50024) | 48447 (0.49976) | 47 (0.00048) | (0.984)
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 59464 | 43278 (0.73446) | 15647 (0.26554) | 24 (0.00041) | (0.991)
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 5614 | 4318 (0.97472) | 112 (0.02528) | 757 (0.17088) | (0.924)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 543412 |

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Bets Made: 543412
Cumulative Wagers: 195424.98368132 BTC
Cumulative Rewards: 193333.06261702 BTC
Cumulative Fees Paid: 269.38745000 BTC
Cumulative Unreturned: 2038.08327919 BTC
----
SD Profit/Loss From Games: 2091.92106430 BTC
SD Profit/Loss With Fees: 1822.53361430 BTC
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 1509892 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1010485 (66.9%)
Blockchain MB: 641.5 : SatoshiDice Tx: 409.8 (63.9%)

Sukrim

legendary

Activity: 2618

Merit: 1007

Emails are also always just emails, regardless of content. Still I consider some as spam and some not.

Stephen Gornick

legendary

Activity: 2506

Merit: 1010

Quote from: Sukrim on June 15, 2012, 06:08:40 AM

This is just sick - I'm currently on very slow mobile internet and downloading hundreds of MB of SD spam TXs is leading up to a point where I'm currently considering very much not running a full bitcoind at all any more.

Ya, ... consider it progress though. The old ways that were not future-proofed go by the wayside and new ways emerge.

You can run BitcoinSpinner instead, right?

Sukrim

legendary

Activity: 2618

Merit: 1007

This is just sick - I'm currently on very slow mobile internet and downloading hundreds of MB of SD spam TXs is leading up to a point where I'm currently considering very much not running a full bitcoind at all any more.

Just imagine having your internet line clogged for 1 hour or more EVERY DAY when booting up the PC and loading the latest blocks.

Onichan

newbie

Activity: 47

Merit: 0

Just read this, very informative and interesting thread. Thanks for the statistics.

etotheipi

legendary

Activity: 1428

Merit: 1093

Core Armory Developer

Quote from: Stephen Gornick on June 04, 2012, 09:57:40 PM

Update OP?

Sorry, I've been slacking. I just updated it now.

SD went through a rather dramatic swing the past few days: jumping above 1,500 BTC profit, and dropping back down to around 500. A spurt of large bets (50-100 BTC each) may be responsible...

Also, I added a field "Profit only completed bets": it's because there seem to be some freezing issues with the service, such that hundreds of BTC in bets are getting backlogged, and the previous "Profit/Loss" fields were including those as profit.

The third entry is now the important one: of all the bets that have been fully processed, SD has made about 650 BTC profit so far.

Stephen Gornick

legendary

Activity: 2506

Merit: 1010

Update OP?

etotheipi

legendary

Activity: 1428

Merit: 1093

Core Armory Developer

Quote from: jgarzik on May 24, 2012, 06:54:55 PM

Quote from: etotheipi on May 24, 2012, 06:40:13 PM

Updated! Looks like SD finally went on a lucky streak and are in the black for once! +1100 BTC is not too shabby!

Also, they are now responsible for 122 MB of blockchain and more than 50% of transactions since Apr 18, 2012.

bleh -- we need to look into transaction pruning...

I have always believed that this should be a priority, but many devs I've talked to insist that it's not. I wouldn't mind pioneering this in Armory if I can ever get networking-independence...

I believe I came up with a solid way to not only prune, but also allow lightweight nodes to verify balances without downloading the entire chain! Don't want to derail this thread, but I appended it to the Scalable blockchain thread. I wouldn't mind seeing some more discussion about it (mine, as well as other proposals).

jgarzik

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1099

Quote from: etotheipi on May 24, 2012, 06:40:13 PM

Updated! Looks like SD finally went on a lucky streak and are in the black for once! +1100 BTC is not too shabby!

Also, they are now responsible for 122 MB of blockchain and more than 50% of transactions since Apr 18, 2012.

bleh -- we need to look into transaction pruning...

etotheipi

legendary

Activity: 1428

Merit: 1093

Core Armory Developer

Updated! Looks like SD finally went on a lucky streak and are in the black for once! +1100 BTC is not too shabby!

Also, they are now responsible for 122 MB of blockchain and more than 50% of transactions since Apr 18, 2012.

etotheipi

legendary

Activity: 1428

Merit: 1093

Core Armory Developer

Statistics updated! SatoshiDice just hit 100,000 wagers!

Quote from: apetersson on May 18, 2012, 08:35:51 PM

it amazes me how much betting with guaranteed losses bitcoin users are willing to make

Gamblers know the games are designed so the bettor loses money. But in the short run, the variance of the games is so ludicrously high compared to the house edge, that they can't feel the difference compared to a fair game or even in their favor, even after 1,000 bets. It's the swings and chance to make some money which is where the fun is.

Smart players who understand it know they're paying for their own entertainment.
The less knowledgeable players are doing it for the fun of gambling, and probably don't even fully appreciate what 51% house edge means. They had that one huge winning session once and just want to try to make it happen again.

apetersson

hero member

Activity: 668

Merit: 501

it amazes me how much betting with guaranteed losses bitcoin users are willing to make

i see the tx "spam" mostly as ok, it shows that the network can handle it. if the miners think this is too much they will start charging more fees.
what i especially like is that the implied transaction fee including block reward is going way down from 5-6 to about 1.2-1.5 :
http://blockchain.info/charts/cost-per-transaction?daysAverageString=7

jgarzik

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1099

Quote from: etotheipi on May 18, 2012, 07:15:44 PM

Okay, stats are updated! And nguoinhaque was right, I wasn't counting two bets. The actual percentage of blockchain volume is about 45% satoshidice!

Good stuff, thanks for messing around with this.

JoelKatz

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1012

Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.

Quote from: payb.tc on May 16, 2012, 01:41:57 AM

satoshidice has a very wide dynamic range... doing the standard 2x martingale, it allows up to 17 losses in a row... you won't get anywhere near that at a regular casino... more like 4 or 5 in a row.

the key to reducing martingale risk (for the house) is bringing the min/max closer together.

Why would you want to reduce risk when you're in it for the long haul because you have infrastructure to pay off and the odds are strictly in your favor? Progressive bettors are *great* for Satoshidice. They drastically increase the total amount wagered and the expected house profit depends heavily on the total amount wagered. Even better, they tend to place larger bets than casual betters, which increases the house's advantage because larger bets are cheaper to pay off compared to the expected house profit.

etotheipi

legendary

Activity: 1428

Merit: 1093

Core Armory Developer

Okay, stats are updated! And nguoinhaque was right, I wasn't counting two bets. The actual percentage of blockchain volume is about 45% satoshidice!

jg

newbie

Activity: 21

Merit: 0

Wow, what a nasty bug!

I'm glad it wasn't too hard to get it running again!

etotheipi

legendary

Activity: 1428

Merit: 1093

Core Armory Developer

Quote from: apetersson on May 17, 2012, 02:13:11 PM

Quote from: etotheipi on May 17, 2012, 10:29:03 AM

Unfortunately, I can't reproduce any of these results any time soon, since my main hard-drive crashed last night... Sad

to restore my faith in sanity of bitcoin users, please tell me you have everything backed up and thus you lost no bitcoins..

Paper backups all the way! And of course, all my Armory code is backed up between multiple systems via github and the dozens of users who have checked out the project...

Interesting update on that: I own a Crucial M4 SSD as my primary drive. It turns out there's a bug in the default firmware of these drives that causes it to become inoperable after exactly 5,184 hours of up-time. And yes, I got the drive about 7 months ago. Just need to upgrade the firmware to get it working again...

So, luckily nothing is actually lost. Just a day of stress trying to figure out how I'm going to diagnose and resolve this situation.

apetersson

hero member

Activity: 668

Merit: 501

Quote from: etotheipi on May 17, 2012, 10:29:03 AM

Unfortunately, I can't reproduce any of these results any time soon, since my main hard-drive crashed last night... Sad

to restore my faith in sanity of bitcoin users, please tell me you have everything backed up and thus you lost no bitcoins..

etotheipi

legendary

Activity: 1428

Merit: 1093

Core Armory Developer

Quote from: nguoinhaque on May 17, 2012, 03:38:10 AM

Quote from: etotheipi on May 16, 2012, 09:48:03 PM

Quote from: gmaxwell on May 16, 2012, 08:51:09 AM

Next time you update the stats, could you also include "megabytes added to the block chain" and/or "percent of total bitcoin transactions"?

It's actually not as much as I thought. Only 22% of transactions and transaction bytes are due to SatoshiDice (starting the counters after the first SatoshiDice transaction).

Each bet has 2 transactions. Did you count it?

Ack. Talk about an amateurish mistake. I'm pretty sure I did not count two transactions. I counted "wagers".

Unfortunately, I can't reproduce any of these results any time soon, since my main hard-drive crashed last night... Sad

Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 79. (Read 192889 times)