I personally would be ok if the person HBO "identified" had been Satoshi. And the "mistake" to reveal the RBF mechanism at Bitcointalk under the Satoshi nick, commenting it under the real name, and then 4 years later introducing it under the real name is at least a plausible assumption.
However, evidence is quite weak in my opinion. If Satoshi and Todd are different persons, then the behaviour would be perfectly explainable: Todd was aware of the RBF idea already in 2010 due to discussions with Satoshi, and it became an important feature once fees began to rise, so every participant in the threads about "early RBF ideas" which still were around in 2014 in the Bitcoin community would be a good candidate to later publish/implement the final RBF concept.
In fact it's the exact opposite: the CIA or NSA could have easily, as a small side project by one full time employee, invented Bitcoin. They could have done this as an experiment, and then it got out of control.
Of course this is possible, it's just not really convincing for me. My point is that the components of Bitcoin were already discussed in academic circles, and "electronic internet cash" was a hot idea in the 90s and 2000s, so there is no need for a government in the puzzle.
Crypto has been used to invent an entire new class of crimes. Before crypto, terrorists did not shut down a hospital and then demand several hundred pounds of paper bills. That would simply not be practical. Crypto has made cyberextortion possible and practical, to say nothing of money laundering, tax evasion, and other crimes Bitcoin enabled (at least initially, until chain analysis became common).
Cyberextortion was already popular before Bitcoin, with methods like prepaid cards. And that Bitcoin "enabled" money laundering is also complete bullshit. Money laundering was done with cash, techniques involving various bank accounts, precious goods/metals, art etc. etc. for centuries. And cryptocurrencies are only useful for a part of the "task" of money laundering, because you can obfuscate payment paths but you won't get "clean money" out of the system easily.
In addition I don't know what's your point about a possible goal of the involved government: it could have created Bitcoin to "enable" a new crime class, i.e. to lure existing criminal groups into a new business, with the intention to later control it via chain analysis? Not a convincing hypothesis for me as I see only advantage for prosecution if this would lead to more convicted criminals, but for me it looks like a zero-sum game.