Topic: Satoshi Nakamoto - 1,5 million Bitcoins - We need answers - page 7. (Read 52546 times)
I dont think the op is a newb, this is a valid question, on my mind and I'd be anyone thinking about investing serious money in bitcoin... I dont suppose ny1 here doing the childish name calling does not have a stash?
Any chance you could add the number of bitcoins in existence + market value in the same graph?
I've thought about adding the amount of coins mined in each month. (Consider making a small donation if you want to increase my motivation: 1SQL2R5ijCn2ZiBG8aDYpCiecNPuxzMJJ)
Well, whoever it was, I got a donation which increased my motivation:
like this chart? consider donating: 1SQL2R5ijCn2ZiBG8aDYpCiecNPuxzMJJ
Heh... dude, you need answers... I need bitcoins!
Remember that back then coins were so worthless and abundant that probably some people just deleted their wallet.dat after a while and so on...
I feel a little bit sick when I think of all the people that must have done this. Deleting a fortune in the blink of an eye
Remember that back then coins were so worthless and abundant that probably some people just deleted their wallet.dat after a while and so on...
Interesting graph. Looks like people started saving their bitcoins in 2011/3.
That march spike is actually an even smaller spike in week 9 (beginning of march), as you can see in a weekly breakdown I did: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/did-the-mysteryminer-mm-keep-his-coins-37422, where I speculate that this is the MysteryMiner keeping his coins.
Any chance you could add the number of bitcoins in existence + market value in the same graph?
I've thought about adding the amount of coins mined in each month. (Consider making a small donation if you want to increase my motivation: 1SQL2R5ijCn2ZiBG8aDYpCiecNPuxzMJJ)
I could also add the market value, if I had the data. Can anyone help me with that?
Interesting graph. Looks like people started saving their bitcoins in 2011/3.
Any chance you could add the number of bitcoins in existence + market value in the same graph?
True. My finding was, that the very early adopters did not sell out.
Why wouldn't they sell their BTC, when they had a good chance to do that? [$20 per BTC]Because they are not greedy bastards but want bitcoin to succeed for other reasons.
or, they were greedy bastards that were holding out for $35 per BTC and just missed out.
(not that i think that's the case)
Because they are not greedy bastards but want bitcoin to succeed for other reasons.
That's exactly what i think.
If satoshi [and "friends"] were greedy and started bitcoin and mined coins for the sole purpose of money, he had a pretty sweet chance to dump his whole BTC into the markets for half the price and become a millionaire.
I believe that vast numbers of Bitcoins were found and lost in the early days, because back then, people were mining just because Bitcoin was an interesting technology project. When they lost interest and quit mining, wallets were easily lost in OS reinstalls etc. because why would you bother backing up a bunch of funnymoney?
So I predict that a big portion of those early Bitcoins that have not been moved, will never ever be moved, because the wallets are just lost.
So I predict that a big portion of those early Bitcoins that have not been moved, will never ever be moved, because the wallets are just lost.
I tend to disagree. Who reinstall their OS without migrating his data? Also: the early early miners where probably "hoping like hell" it would succeed, why else go to the length of writing the code. A backup of wallet.dat is cheap enough. I don't think many of the old coins are lost, but that's speculation for now.
EDIT: also, I see what you did there. Your prediction might be very hard to falsify.
True. My finding was, that the very early adopters did not sell out.
Why wouldn't they sell their BTC, when they had a good chance to do that? [$20 per BTC]Because they are not greedy bastards but want bitcoin to succeed for other reasons.
What surprised me about molecular's analysis though is the amount of coins that were never moved. I wonder if that is the usual trend, or it shows a different behavioral pattern for first comers. Has anybody made a "the number of coins that haven't moved since" graph?
Been thinking about that one or a similar analysis (coin age) and thanks to your post, finally came around
I did this by identifying the leaf nodes of the transaction chains and then determining the time of the block these were included in. That's the "last time these coins were moved".
CAVEAT: I know I'm making the mistake of including blocks from orphaned chains here. Still looking for an easy way to exclude these. The error should not be too huge, though.
Quote
select year(from_unixtime(block.block_nTime)) as year, month(from_unixtime(block.block_nTime)) as month, sum(txout_value)*1E-8
from block_tx
inner join block on block.block_id = block_tx.block_id
inner join tx on block_tx.tx_id = tx.tx_id
inner join txout on txout.tx_id = tx.tx_id
left join txin txin2 on txin2.txout_id = txout.txout_id
where txin2.txout_id is null
group by year, month;
Made a pretty histogram of the result:
like it? even 0.01 BTC help continue cool queries: 1SQL2R5ijCn2ZiBG8aDYpCiecNPuxzMJJ
Note: 2009 summed up = 1,205,454 - all summed up: 7,087,766
Now, what conclusions can we draw from this?
+1,000
http://www.ted.com/talks/derek_sivers_how_to_start_a_movement.html WATCH THIS VIDEO--ONLY 3 MINUTES LONG
http://www.ted.com/talks/derek_sivers_how_to_start_a_movement.html WATCH THIS VIDEO--ONLY 3 MINUTES LONG
Thank you so much for looking up the video!
Speaking of Ted.com, what are the chances of having Bitcoin's main spokesperson give a talk at TED about Bitcoin early next year? Seems to me to be a perfect fit.
Yeah, it's been suggested before that Gavin hold a TED talk. It was, if I remember correctly, concluded that it might still be too early. Maybe it's time now
. It'd be quite a receptive audience, I think, that also tends to have some money (a big plus for us ^^)Maybe Gavin (while I think he'd do a great job) is not the right guy for this one, though... there are a few other eloquent bitcoin people. Damn, if forum search was better I would try to find the post where someone made a list. Any suggestions?
I just tried looking for it for you, but I'm so tired, I'm not sure if this is the list or not.
Danny Casolaro
Frank Nugan
Fred Alvarez
Paul Morasca
Mary Quick
Larry Guerrin
Abbie Hoffman
Jonathan Moyle
Alan Standorf
Dennis Eisman
Anson Ng
Ian Spiro
Robert Maxwell
Paul Wilcher
Pete Sandvigen
Alan Michael May
Jonathan Myle
JohnCrawford
Vali Delahanty
Barry Kusnick
I believe that vast numbers of Bitcoins were found and lost in the early days, because back then, people were mining just because Bitcoin was an interesting technology project. When they lost interest and quit mining, wallets were easily lost in OS reinstalls etc. because why would you bother backing up a bunch of funnymoney?
So I predict that a big portion of those early Bitcoins that have not been moved, will never ever be moved, because the wallets are just lost.
So I predict that a big portion of those early Bitcoins that have not been moved, will never ever be moved, because the wallets are just lost.
+1,000
http://www.ted.com/talks/derek_sivers_how_to_start_a_movement.html WATCH THIS VIDEO--ONLY 3 MINUTES LONG
http://www.ted.com/talks/derek_sivers_how_to_start_a_movement.html WATCH THIS VIDEO--ONLY 3 MINUTES LONG
Thank you so much for looking up the video!
Speaking of Ted.com, what are the chances of having Bitcoin's main spokesperson give a talk at TED about Bitcoin early next year? Seems to me to be a perfect fit.
Yeah, it's been suggested before that Gavin hold a TED talk. It was, if I remember correctly, concluded that it might still be too early. Maybe it's time now
. It'd be quite a receptive audience, I think, that also tends to have some money (a big plus for us ^^)Maybe Gavin (while I think he'd do a great job) is not the right guy for this one, though... there are a few other eloquent bitcoin people. Damn, if forum search was better I would try to find the post where someone made a list. Any suggestions?
Here's what I propose. The next time another thread like this gets started, simply post the link to this video and kindly request to lock the thread, for the subject will be closed. If the OP of the new thread doesn't get it, he should receive 500 lashes with a wet noodle by (insert your favorite board member here).
You never know, some day new information might come up. There's totally some good stuff in this very thread. We can't just reject stuff out-of-hand like that.
I'm amazed that something like Bitcoin can survive in the wild, totally open source without being hacked to peices. The guy is clearly an absolute genius in the field of cryptology and macro economics, I bet even he can't believe this shit actually worked though.
Much respect to him, and I'm sure he's far too clever to let Bitcoin die or do anything to negatively affect the value of the currency when he's holding over a million coins.
+1Much respect to him, and I'm sure he's far too clever to let Bitcoin die or do anything to negatively affect the value of the currency when he's holding over a million coins.
considering his genius design and superb execution, Satoshi deserves at least 3 million btc
+1True. My finding was, that the very early adopters did not sell out.
Why wouldn't they sell their BTC, when they had a good chance to do that? [$20 per BTC] Even so, there are many early adopters who (at least claim to) have very little coins left.
Hehe. For some early adopters, "very little" might still be in the thousands, though.
I can understand some of them cashed in too early, though. Imagine you're a little short on cash and the bitcoin value just shot up 400% to USD 0.80!! I'd be tempted to sell, myself. I've been having a hard time holding on to my little stash myself at times.
This just emphasizes the point that being an early adopter, an being it successfully (holding on to the bitcoins), is not so easy, and these people can be envied, but it's not unfair in any way. We all had the same chance. Of course some luck was involved, too, but that's almost always the case. So don't bash the early adopters, they're the ones that got the stone rolling in the first place. Like someone once elaborated on in a TED talk: it's not the leader/inventor that is the most crucial person to the success of something, it's the first follower (showing a video of a guy standing up and starting to dance pertty stupidly, then another one following, then more people successively, until everybody dances). He argues that without the first follower, there wouldn't have been a party, and the leader would've looked like an idiot. I think it's true.
+1,000
http://www.ted.com/talks/derek_sivers_how_to_start_a_movement.html WATCH THIS VIDEO--ONLY 3 MINUTES LONG
I saw that video a couple months ago, so knew where to look.
Excellent post!
Here's what I propose. The next time another thread like this gets started, simply post the link to this video and kindly request to lock the thread, for the subject will be closed. If the OP of the new thread doesn't get it, he should receive 500 lashes with a wet noodle by (insert your favorite board member here).
http://www.ted.com/talks/derek_sivers_how_to_start_a_movement.html
Speaking of Ted.com, what are the chances of having Bitcoin's main spokesperson give a talk at TED about Bitcoin early next year? Seems to me to be a perfect fit.
Nice work Molecular!
Although, it is also possible Satoshi owns no bitcoins.
Although, it is also possible Satoshi owns no bitcoins.
True. My finding was, that the very early adopters did not sell out.
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