I did some more analysis on "2009 coins" using bitcoin-abe (thanks a lot, John Toby!):
I looked at mining profits 2009, using block_id <= 32485 (last block mined in 2009, at 2009-12-31 23:51:57) as condition. The overall mining profit was:
mysql> select sum(txout_value/1E8) from block_tx inner join block on block.block_id = block_tx.block_id inner join tx on block_tx.tx_id = tx.tx_id inner join txin on txin.tx_id=tx.tx_
id inner join txout on txout.tx_id = tx.tx_id left join txin txin2 on txin2.txout_id = txout.txout_id left join tx tx2 on tx2.tx_id=txin2.tx_id left join block_tx block_tx2 on block_tx2.tx_id=tx2.tx_id where txin.txout_id is null and block.block_id <= 32485;
+----------------------+
| sum(txout_value/1E8) |
+----------------------+
| 1624252.87 |
+----------------------+
1,624,252.87 BTC (2.87 BTC fees)
crosscheck: 1624250 BTC / 50 BTC/block = 32485 blocks, ok
Next I was interested in wether or not these mining profits where sold or not. This is too hard to determine from the data, so I resorted to determining wether they were moved to other addresses and if so, wether the respective transaction took place in 2009 or after 2009:
mysql> select case when txin2.txin_id is null then 'not moved' else case when block_tx2.block_id <= 32485 then 'moved i
n 2009' else 'moved after 2009' end end as move_status, sum(txout_value/1E8) from block_tx inner join block on block.bl
ock_id = block_tx.block_id inner join tx on block_tx.tx_id = tx.tx_id inner join txin on txin.tx_id=tx.tx_id inner join txout on txout.tx_id = tx.tx_id left join txin txin2 on txin2.txout_id = txout.txout_id left join tx tx2 on tx2.tx_id=txin2.tx_id left join block_tx block_tx2 on block_tx2.tx_id=tx2.tx_id where txin.txout_id is null and block.block_id <= 32485 group by move_status;
+------------------+----------------------+
| move_status | sum(txout_value/1E8) |
+------------------+----------------------+
| moved after 2009 | 294800.15 |
| moved in 2009 | 137600.13 |
| not moved | 1191852.59 |
+------------------+----------------------+
This likely means, that the majority of the coins mined in 2009 (73%, 1,191,852 BTC) are still in possession of the original miner (he might have given the coins to someone else by giving him the private keys. It's likely, though, that the recipient would've moved the coins to new addresses because otherwise he'd have to trust the sender to not use the keys).
Therefore I think we can safely assume that
the people that mined the early coins in 2009 (likely "Satoshi Nakamoto and some friends")
did not sell or otherwise give away the majority of these coins. The coins that were moved (27%) might also well be still in their possession. We can therefore state:
Satoshi and friends have at miminum 1.2 Million BTC still at their disposal.EDIT: this puts a lower bound to the answer of question 1: "How many Bitcoins in total does "Nakamoto" have?" (assuming "Nakamoto" means "Satoshi and friends"). Answer: at least 1.2 Million.
