I understand it just fine, you don't seem to understand basic math. Show your work or you're just making crap up.
There's plenty of projections that show a positive ROI even at 100x difficulty and beyond. I have yet to see a single credible projection that doesn't show a positive ROI at some point within 2 - 3 years with all the worst case scenarios coming into play at the same time .
I trust Organofcorti's calculations far more than I trust your speculation.
Topic: Should I cancel my BFL 4/2/2013 Order? - page 7. (Read 7831 times)
Only in the Bitcoin world do people have a fit when they don't have a 3 month 100% ROI. Meanwhile, everywhere else people are falling over themselves to have a 24 months 100% ROI.
That's because with current difficult projections, what will not ROI in 3 months will not ROI at all.
Out of bitcoin world, first moments are the most difficult because revenue is lower, but you expect your revenue and profits to grow over time. In BTC mining it's the opposite. You really don't understand this or you are just trolling?
Only in the Bitcoin world do people have a fit when they don't have a 3 month 100% ROI. Meanwhile, everywhere else people are falling over themselves to have a 24 months 100% ROI.
Try and sell it. People are paying crazy money for ASICs that are unlikely to meet ROI.
Unlikely to meet ROI?Let's see... on June 23, 2012, when preorders were opened up for BFL ASICs, difficulty was around 1.8 million. Now, difficulty is just over 10 million. That's a 5.5x increase.
And yet, on June 23, 2012, the expected return on investment would have been calculated using $6 as the price per BTC. Now, the price is $140. That's a 23x increase.
So it's actually 4 times as profitable now as it was when preorders first opened up.
BFL miners will be quite profitable for quite some time. BFL would have to ship around 1.75 MILLION Single SC's in order for it to be unprofitable to run a Single SC at $0.08/kwh.
I also don't get people worried about ROI...
I did calculations, and up to a difficulty of 500M, a single will pay itself off within a year. And that assuming BTC=$150... that's reasonably likely to increase.
Sold mine : http://www.ebay.com/itm/121096385733?ssPageName=STRK:MESOX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1561.l2649
Might be risky, only time will tell.
Might be risky, only time will tell.
1.75 million 60GH/s ASICs? I highly doubt it.
Let's take BFL at their word, they can ship 400 units a day. An order placed today will likely take 6 months to arrive. That's 73,000 units, roughly 50 times the current network size. So when that Single is delivered, it'll make .05 btc/day. But it costs 18 btc today. That puts the ROI at roughly 1 year after the 6 months for delivery. 18 months from today just to break even and get the BTC back you previously spent on it.
I'll make you an even better deal. Send me 18 btc today and in 1 year I'll give you 20 btc. That's 11% profit for you. Way better than buying a Single today.
BFL = Big Foolish Lumps
Cancel the order, buy GPUs and mine Litecoin. ASICs will kill BTC anyway. ASICs will inevitably cause the centralisation of control and kill BTC just like it did fiat.
Cancel the order, buy GPUs and mine Litecoin. ASICs will kill BTC anyway. ASICs will inevitably cause the centralisation of control and kill BTC just like it did fiat.
You realize that there are probably 50-100k people between the ones who have ordered from BFL, and the ones that are part of a chip buy from Avalon?
Asics are not causing centralization.
Unless a larger portion of any of these orders are all people mining at the same pool
Try and sell it. People are paying crazy money for ASICs that are unlikely to meet ROI.
Unlikely to meet ROI?Let's see... on June 23, 2012, when preorders were opened up for BFL ASICs, difficulty was around 1.8 million. Now, difficulty is just over 10 million. That's a 5.5x increase.
And yet, on June 23, 2012, the expected return on investment would have been calculated using $6 as the price per BTC. Now, the price is $140. That's a 23x increase.
So it's actually 4 times as profitable now as it was when preorders first opened up.
BFL miners will be quite profitable for quite some time. BFL would have to ship around 1.75 MILLION Single SC's in order for it to be unprofitable to run a Single SC at $0.08/kwh.
And if the BTC exchange rate goes up to $1400 it would be a 230x increase in expected return on investment.
If the BTC exchange rate drops to $14, it would only be a 2.3 times increase in expected return.
Nobody knows what the exchange rate will be in the future. That is why people should talk about expected BTC mined from BFL products, not USD expected from BFL mining. BTC expected from BFL mining is only 18% of what it was in Oct 2012.
1) the delivery date
2) the specs
3) the BTC/USD exchange rate
4) the network hashrate
5) reliability of the unit
Ordering a BFL unit (assuming it was delivered anywhere near spec and within 6 months) would probably be profitable. It probably would not be "wildly profitable" and there might be a better use of funds (Avalon, etc).
Back to the original quote I was responding to, which stated that "People are paying crazy money for ASICs that are unlikely to meet ROI." This person was clearly speaking of current prices (in USD) for ASICs. My response is that the notion that ASICs would not pay for themselves if ordered today is completely absurd, because it would take 1.75 million Single SC's shipped out before a BFL ASIC would become unprofitable to mine with at current prices. So somehow, FlappySocks thinks that BFL (or another ASIC vendor) is going to ship out 1.75 million units before a device ordered today would fully pay for itself. I'm just saying that that idea is flat-out wrong, unless FlappySocks expects the USD price of BTC to drop drastically. Looking from a USD perspective, a unit ordered today would most certainly pay for itself as long as the BTC price doesn't move downward.
The nature of most mining solutions (excluding electricity costs) is that they eventually pay for themselves. Even GPUs bought today might eventually pay for themselves. If people are paying "crazy money", then they are not paying list price. I think that poster was saying that the units ordered today are unlikely to meet the bubbly expectations of ROI that people currently have. Some combination of delays, spec miss, btc price, and hash rate rise will deflate those expectations dramatically.
BFL = Big Foolish Lumps
Cancel the order, buy GPUs and mine Litecoin. ASICs will kill BTC anyway. ASICs will inevitably cause the centralisation of control and kill BTC just like it did fiat.
Cancel the order, buy GPUs and mine Litecoin. ASICs will kill BTC anyway. ASICs will inevitably cause the centralisation of control and kill BTC just like it did fiat.
You realize that there are probably 50-100k people between the ones who have ordered from BFL, and the ones that are part of a chip buy from Avalon?
Asics are not causing centralization.
BFL miners will be quite profitable for quite some time. BFL would have to ship around 1.75 MILLION Single SC's in order for it to be unprofitable to run a Single SC at $0.08/kwh.
That would only be true if no other ASICs were brought online by any other manufacturer. Fat chance of that. Lots of ASICs are going to make the difficulty skyrocket long before BFL ships a bunch of Singles.
Try and sell it. People are paying crazy money for ASICs that are unlikely to meet ROI.
Unlikely to meet ROI?Let's see... on June 23, 2012, when preorders were opened up for BFL ASICs, difficulty was around 1.8 million. Now, difficulty is just over 10 million. That's a 5.5x increase.
And yet, on June 23, 2012, the expected return on investment would have been calculated using $6 as the price per BTC. Now, the price is $140. That's a 23x increase.
So it's actually 4 times as profitable now as it was when preorders first opened up.
BFL miners will be quite profitable for quite some time. BFL would have to ship around 1.75 MILLION Single SC's in order for it to be unprofitable to run a Single SC at $0.08/kwh.
And if the BTC exchange rate goes up to $1400 it would be a 230x increase in expected return on investment.
If the BTC exchange rate drops to $14, it would only be a 2.3 times increase in expected return.
Nobody knows what the exchange rate will be in the future. That is why people should talk about expected BTC mined from BFL products, not USD expected from BFL mining. BTC expected from BFL mining is only 18% of what it was in Oct 2012.
Back to the original quote I was responding to, which stated that "People are paying crazy money for ASICs that are unlikely to meet ROI." This person was clearly speaking of current prices (in USD) for ASICs. My response is that the notion that ASICs would not pay for themselves if ordered today is completely absurd, because it would take 1.75 million Single SC's shipped out before a BFL ASIC would become unprofitable to mine with at current prices. So somehow, FlappySocks thinks that BFL (or another ASIC vendor) is going to ship out 1.75 million units before a device ordered today would fully pay for itself. I'm just saying that that idea is flat-out wrong, unless FlappySocks expects the USD price of BTC to drop drastically. Looking from a USD perspective, a unit ordered today would most certainly pay for itself as long as the BTC price doesn't move downward.
BFL miners will be quite profitable for quite some time. BFL would have to ship around 1.75 MILLION Single SC's in order for it to be unprofitable to run a Single SC at $0.08/kwh.
That would only be true if no other ASICs were brought online by any other manufacturer. Fat chance of that. Lots of ASICs are going to make the difficulty skyrocket long before BFL ships a bunch of Singles.
Ordered this almost a month ago. Looks like they're shipping but what will the ROI be assuming I get the monitor the earliest which will be July/August?
It's the 60GHash for $1300
It's the 60GHash for $1300
They are not. They are only shipping Jalapenos.
Singles, Little Single and Mini Rigs are still in (re)design phase (aka "now in final stage development" in BFLspeak).
Your expected earnings:
I'll just post the basic results here, the full analysis is here: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/04/913-asic-choices-asic-earnings-17-april.html
Previous post in series here.
Previous post in series here.
Quote
4. Conclusions
Earnings estimates are again a bit better than previous estimates - all shipping is a bit delayed compared to my previous best guess, I hadn't counted on ASICMiner dropping their hashrate back to 7Thps. extending the forecast to August (still assuming no batch four from Avalon ) shows that an Avalon that cost 75BTC and started mining on 23rd May should almost have paid for itself by August - about a 2.5 month ROI.
Earnings estimates are again a bit better than previous estimates - all shipping is a bit delayed compared to my previous best guess, I hadn't counted on ASICMiner dropping their hashrate back to 7Thps. extending the forecast to August (still assuming no batch four from Avalon ) shows that an Avalon that cost 75BTC and started mining on 23rd May should almost have paid for itself by August - about a 2.5 month ROI.
BFL = Big Foolish Lumps
Cancel the order, buy GPUs and mine Litecoin. ASICs will kill BTC anyway. ASICs will inevitably cause the centralisation of control and kill BTC just like it did fiat.
Cancel the order, buy GPUs and mine Litecoin. ASICs will kill BTC anyway. ASICs will inevitably cause the centralisation of control and kill BTC just like it did fiat.
Try and sell it. People are paying crazy money for ASICs that are unlikely to meet ROI.
Unlikely to meet ROI?Let's see... on June 23, 2012, when preorders were opened up for BFL ASICs, difficulty was around 1.8 million. Now, difficulty is just over 10 million. That's a 5.5x increase.
And yet, on June 23, 2012, the expected return on investment would have been calculated using $6 as the price per BTC. Now, the price is $140. That's a 23x increase.
So it's actually 4 times as profitable now as it was when preorders first opened up.
BFL miners will be quite profitable for quite some time. BFL would have to ship around 1.75 MILLION Single SC's in order for it to be unprofitable to run a Single SC at $0.08/kwh.
And if the BTC exchange rate goes up to $1400 it would be a 230x increase in expected return on investment.
If the BTC exchange rate drops to $14, it would only be a 2.3 times increase in expected return.
Nobody knows what the exchange rate will be in the future. That is why people should talk about expected BTC mined from BFL products, not USD expected from BFL mining. BTC expected from BFL mining is only 18% of what it was in Oct 2012.
Nobody is going to buy an April order... For now. Maybe next year, when it's very likely that you will get it soon, somebody is going to be willing to pay for your preorder including a premium.... Or maybe not, because ROI will be impossible at that time.
Honestly, don't want to be rude, but I really cannot understand what crossed your mind when you pre-ordered in April. Maybe you are new and did not make any research? Maybe you thought BTC would skyrocket so even 0.0001BTC mined is worth it? No, sorry, last sentence has no sense, if you believed that you would just have bought BTC for the price of the miner.
So... what crossed your mind? Honest question.
Honestly, don't want to be rude, but I really cannot understand what crossed your mind when you pre-ordered in April. Maybe you are new and did not make any research? Maybe you thought BTC would skyrocket so even 0.0001BTC mined is worth it? No, sorry, last sentence has no sense, if you believed that you would just have bought BTC for the price of the miner.
So... what crossed your mind? Honest question.
what if someone who wants to order now from BFL ... why wouldn't they buy this one for a cheaper price and faster shipment?
Yeah, I thought you were offering the pre-order for a premium, I see is not the case, so yours is not a bad offer... But still is an April order, paying $1K for a unit you will get in 2014 is still quite crazy IMO.
BTW, honest question: what crossed your mind when you decided to order to BFL on April? You really thought they were going to deliver soon?
Because I felt stupid for not ordering Avalon when I had the chance... I literally had my bank info all typed in but decided it was too risky and closed all windows...
Something similar happened to me with Avalon batch #2 - but then I prepared and bought batch #3. That's a gamble on its own...
And BTW: I also have a pre-order with BFL, but much earlier... And I paid in BTC (ouch!)
Nobody is going to buy an April order... For now. Maybe next year, when it's very likely that you will get it soon, somebody is going to be willing to pay for your preorder including a premium.... Or maybe not, because ROI will be impossible at that time.
Honestly, don't want to be rude, but I really cannot understand what crossed your mind when you pre-ordered in April. Maybe you are new and did not make any research? Maybe you thought BTC would skyrocket so even 0.0001BTC mined is worth it? No, sorry, last sentence has no sense, if you believed that you would just have bought BTC for the price of the miner.
So... what crossed your mind? Honest question.
Honestly, don't want to be rude, but I really cannot understand what crossed your mind when you pre-ordered in April. Maybe you are new and did not make any research? Maybe you thought BTC would skyrocket so even 0.0001BTC mined is worth it? No, sorry, last sentence has no sense, if you believed that you would just have bought BTC for the price of the miner.
So... what crossed your mind? Honest question.
what if someone who wants to order now from BFL ... why wouldn't they buy this one for a cheaper price and faster shipment?
Yeah, I thought you were offering the pre-order for a premium, I see is not the case, so yours is not a bad offer... But still is an April order, paying $1K for a unit you will get in 2014 is still quite crazy IMO.
BTW, honest question: what crossed your mind when you decided to order to BFL on April? You really thought they were going to deliver soon?
Because I felt stupid for not ordering Avalon when I had the chance... I literally had my bank info all typed in but decided it was too risky and closed all windows...
Nobody is going to buy an April order... For now. Maybe next year, when it's very likely that you will get it soon, somebody is going to be willing to pay for your preorder including a premium.... Or maybe not, because ROI will be impossible at that time.
Honestly, don't want to be rude, but I really cannot understand what crossed your mind when you pre-ordered in April. Maybe you are new and did not make any research? Maybe you thought BTC would skyrocket so even 0.0001BTC mined is worth it? No, sorry, last sentence has no sense, if you believed that you would just have bought BTC for the price of the miner.
So... what crossed your mind? Honest question.
Honestly, don't want to be rude, but I really cannot understand what crossed your mind when you pre-ordered in April. Maybe you are new and did not make any research? Maybe you thought BTC would skyrocket so even 0.0001BTC mined is worth it? No, sorry, last sentence has no sense, if you believed that you would just have bought BTC for the price of the miner.
So... what crossed your mind? Honest question.
what if someone who wants to order now from BFL ... why wouldn't they buy this one for a cheaper price and faster shipment?
Yeah, I thought you were offering the pre-order for a premium, I see is not the case, so yours is not a bad offer... But still is an April order, paying $1K for a unit you will get in 2014 is still quite crazy IMO.
BTW, honest question: what crossed your mind when you decided to order to BFL on April? You really thought they were going to deliver soon?
Try and sell it. People are paying crazy money for ASICs that are unlikely to meet ROI.
Unlikely to meet ROI?Let's see... on June 23, 2012, when preorders were opened up for BFL ASICs, difficulty was around 1.8 million. Now, difficulty is just over 10 million. That's a 5.5x increase.
And yet, on June 23, 2012, the expected return on investment would have been calculated using $6 as the price per BTC. Now, the price is $140. That's a 23x increase.
So it's actually 4 times as profitable now as it was when preorders first opened up.
BFL miners will be quite profitable for quite some time. BFL would have to ship around 1.75 MILLION Single SC's in order for it to be unprofitable to run a Single SC at $0.08/kwh.
Nobody is going to buy an April order... For now. Maybe next year, when it's very likely that you will get it soon, somebody is going to be willing to pay for your preorder including a premium.... Or maybe not, because ROI will be impossible at that time.
Honestly, don't want to be rude, but I really cannot understand what crossed your mind when you pre-ordered in April. Maybe you are new and did not make any research? Maybe you thought BTC would skyrocket so even 0.0001BTC mined is worth it? No, sorry, last sentence has no sense, if you believed that you would just have bought BTC for the price of the miner.
So... what crossed your mind? Honest question.
Honestly, don't want to be rude, but I really cannot understand what crossed your mind when you pre-ordered in April. Maybe you are new and did not make any research? Maybe you thought BTC would skyrocket so even 0.0001BTC mined is worth it? No, sorry, last sentence has no sense, if you believed that you would just have bought BTC for the price of the miner.
So... what crossed your mind? Honest question.
what if someone who wants to order now from BFL ... why wouldn't they buy this one for a cheaper price and faster shipment?
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