Topic: So where exactly are we in the bubble? (Read 5175 times)
So where are we in the bubble now? Lol. Until its evidently clear that supply exceeds demand, then investors will start to reel in a bit, but that doesn't mean the crash has to be of the same magnitude of the dotcom bubble or anything.
I am very intrigued by the Bittrex/Tether stuff that is going on at the moment.
They printed $95mil in the last week, that is enough to move the market and if we look at Gox in 2013, we know that it has already happened before.
I agree with another post I read though, when (not if) tether goes down, then money will quickly flow into Bitcoin causing a big spike in the price. That will be the top of the bubble. Right now it seems like to the most elastic bubble ever, it keeps on inflating, but has no downwards pressure! I wonder how much is due to tether.
They printed $95mil in the last week, that is enough to move the market and if we look at Gox in 2013, we know that it has already happened before.
I agree with another post I read though, when (not if) tether goes down, then money will quickly flow into Bitcoin causing a big spike in the price. That will be the top of the bubble. Right now it seems like to the most elastic bubble ever, it keeps on inflating, but has no downwards pressure! I wonder how much is due to tether.
Yes the Tether situation is something I guess many have in their minds at the moment.
When this thing implodes Bitcoin could spike up extremely and cashing out could be really difficult. Alts will get dumped for Bitcoin and many people will run to the crypto/fiat exchanges. And will these exchanges be able to handle all that traffic and withdrawls then? I highly doubt it.
I am very intrigued by the Bittrex/Tether stuff that is going on at the moment.
They printed $95mil in the last week, that is enough to move the market and if we look at Gox in 2013, we know that it has already happened before.
I agree with another post I read though, when (not if) tether goes down, then money will quickly flow into Bitcoin causing a big spike in the price. That will be the top of the bubble. Right now it seems like to the most elastic bubble ever, it keeps on inflating, but has no downwards pressure! I wonder how much is due to tether.
They printed $95mil in the last week, that is enough to move the market and if we look at Gox in 2013, we know that it has already happened before.
I agree with another post I read though, when (not if) tether goes down, then money will quickly flow into Bitcoin causing a big spike in the price. That will be the top of the bubble. Right now it seems like to the most elastic bubble ever, it keeps on inflating, but has no downwards pressure! I wonder how much is due to tether.
Think we may have hit the greed phase if not delusion phase.
I would say we are now caught in a range.
On one hand, you have Chinese and Wall Street sheep dumpers, fleeing the markets because of what their government or irrationally esteemed Financial Trust Fund Baby has to say. (Yes I'm talking about PSchiff).
On the other hand, you have the savvy, younger generations of Big Money investors coming in, making sure the price is incapable of dipping bellow $3000.
On the third hand, you have the possibility that if the price of BTC gets too high, it may be a turn-off for many actual users who now can no longer afford to use bitcoin or pay its increasingly exorbitant trading fees.
For the well-to-do and those only interested in investing BTC, who saw "faw" in the face of flying transaction fees, well, they are the ones with the power to keep the bubble increasing in size.
Only time will tell if its lucrative enough for them to do so.
On one hand, you have Chinese and Wall Street sheep dumpers, fleeing the markets because of what their government or irrationally esteemed Financial Trust Fund Baby has to say. (Yes I'm talking about PSchiff).
On the other hand, you have the savvy, younger generations of Big Money investors coming in, making sure the price is incapable of dipping bellow $3000.
On the third hand, you have the possibility that if the price of BTC gets too high, it may be a turn-off for many actual users who now can no longer afford to use bitcoin or pay its increasingly exorbitant trading fees.
For the well-to-do and those only interested in investing BTC, who saw "faw" in the face of flying transaction fees, well, they are the ones with the power to keep the bubble increasing in size.
Only time will tell if its lucrative enough for them to do so.
I agree with the third one.
It looks like only us who are already invested or owns bitcoin will be the one to nurture it if in case no one can afford it anymore.
What might happen after this?
No one will buy and all will just be selling. There will be no demands anymore until the price of bitcoin reaches a low one that can be afford again. It is not a bubble but more like pricing problem. It will not be a currency anymore.
Until now, I believe we are in the "second intermediate bull market" (maybe the first bullish Elliott wave) in an otherwise bearish market. This wave could take us to $4200-$4300 aproximately.
But I am beginning to believe that the market wants to retest the $5000 top. I think if $4300 are sustainably broken (this mark was reached several times in the last bounce), then we will see at least $4700 again. If we then go down (below $4000), a double top is likely, and its confirmation (<2900 prices) would also confirm the bear market.
But if not, then - why not another bullish phase? Maybe the market is really believing that the Segwit2x drama simply won't happen. That would be bullish.
But I am beginning to believe that the market wants to retest the $5000 top. I think if $4300 are sustainably broken (this mark was reached several times in the last bounce), then we will see at least $4700 again. If we then go down (below $4000), a double top is likely, and its confirmation (<2900 prices) would also confirm the bear market.
But if not, then - why not another bullish phase? Maybe the market is really believing that the Segwit2x drama simply won't happen. That would be bullish.
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"market can stay irrational longer than you stay solvent"
So true!! I guess
We are in Bulltrap or Fear
Probably Fear
We are in Bulltrap or Fear
Probably Fear
Remember famous saying: "market can stay irrational longer than you stay solvent"
I would say we are now caught in a range.
On one hand, you have Chinese and Wall Street sheep dumpers, fleeing the markets because of what their government or irrationally esteemed Financial Trust Fund Baby has to say. (Yes I'm talking about PSchiff).
On the other hand, you have the savvy, younger generations of Big Money investors coming in, making sure the price is incapable of dipping bellow $3000.
On the third hand, you have the possibility that if the price of BTC gets too high, it may be a turn-off for many actual users who now can no longer afford to use bitcoin or pay its increasingly exorbitant trading fees.
For the well-to-do and those only interested in investing BTC, who saw "faw" in the face of flying transaction fees, well, they are the ones with the power to keep the bubble increasing in size.
Only time will tell if its lucrative enough for them to do so.
On one hand, you have Chinese and Wall Street sheep dumpers, fleeing the markets because of what their government or irrationally esteemed Financial Trust Fund Baby has to say. (Yes I'm talking about PSchiff).
On the other hand, you have the savvy, younger generations of Big Money investors coming in, making sure the price is incapable of dipping bellow $3000.
On the third hand, you have the possibility that if the price of BTC gets too high, it may be a turn-off for many actual users who now can no longer afford to use bitcoin or pay its increasingly exorbitant trading fees.
For the well-to-do and those only interested in investing BTC, who saw "faw" in the face of flying transaction fees, well, they are the ones with the power to keep the bubble increasing in size.
Only time will tell if its lucrative enough for them to do so.
I guess
We are in Bulltrap or Fear
Probably Fear
We are in Bulltrap or Fear
Probably Fear
I'm making a bold proclamation that bubble territory exists above the $5000 mark, simply because at that price level it starts to lose some of its intrinsic value as it becomes too expensive of an option for the vast majority of potential users.
Too expensive not only in price (regardless of the fundamentals, its a psychological turnoff for those looking to invest or purchase some for other reasons), but in transaction fees as well. For example, 250 satoshis/byte is a lot more expensive today than it was 3 months ago.
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html
Regardless of SegWit, the overall trend in transaction fees is upward in terms of both dollars and satoshis. At $5 per transaction or higher bitcoin frequently becomes a more expensive option than corporate services such as PayPal and Western Union.
Moral of the story: I wouldn't start investing in bitcoin per se any time soon, but what do I know, I'm just a Noob.
If you do not feel like investing then that is your right but if you think the market of cryptocurrencies is something that can have value in the future then maybe you could invest your money in some alts that you think are worth the risk, besides bitcoin is going down in price right now maybe it will get to the point where you think is a good investment again. Too expensive not only in price (regardless of the fundamentals, its a psychological turnoff for those looking to invest or purchase some for other reasons), but in transaction fees as well. For example, 250 satoshis/byte is a lot more expensive today than it was 3 months ago.
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html
Regardless of SegWit, the overall trend in transaction fees is upward in terms of both dollars and satoshis. At $5 per transaction or higher bitcoin frequently becomes a more expensive option than corporate services such as PayPal and Western Union.
Moral of the story: I wouldn't start investing in bitcoin per se any time soon, but what do I know, I'm just a Noob.
Do you think good news like lightning network can help Bitcoin recover?
I think it can and it will ... almost for sure. The $3000-4970 bullish "leg" was very, very likely triggered by the Segwit adoption. Investors are observing the technical evolution of Bitcoin and some are deciding their investment based on good news from that "development front". So a stable LN release would almost surely be enough for a nice bullish leg.
However, I think we have already entered a mid-term bear market (lower lows and lower highs for some months, at least). So if a LN release is announced in the coming months, the bullish leg would most likely make the price recover only temporarily. In contrast, if a stable (and convincing!) LN release comes out reasonable time after the November fork, e.g. in early to mid 2018, then it could be the trigger for a trend reversal to bullish terrain again.
Do you think good news like lightning network can help Bitcoin recover?
I think it can and it will ... almost for sure. The $3000-4970 bullish "leg" was very, very likely triggered by the Segwit adoption. Investors are observing the technical evolution of Bitcoin and some are deciding their investment based on good news from that "development front". So a stable LN release would almost surely be enough for a nice bullish leg.
However, I think we have already entered a mid-term bear market (lower lows and lower highs for some months, at least). So if a LN release is announced in the coming months, the bullish leg would most likely make the price recover only temporarily. In contrast, if a stable (and convincing!) LN release comes out reasonable time after the November fork, e.g. in early to mid 2018, then it could be the trigger for a trend reversal to bullish terrain again.
Do you think good news like lightning network can help Bitcoin recover?
I think it can and it will ... almost for sure. The $3000-4970 bullish "leg" was very, very likely triggered by the Segwit adoption. Investors are observing the technical evolution of Bitcoin and some are deciding their investment based on good news from that "development front". So a stable LN release would almost surely be enough for a nice bullish leg.
However, I think we have already entered a mid-term bear market (lower lows and lower highs for some months, at least). So if a LN release is announced in the coming months, the bullish leg would most likely make the price recover only temporarily. In contrast, if a stable (and convincing!) LN release comes out reasonable time after the November fork, e.g. in early to mid 2018, then it could be the trigger for a trend reversal to bullish terrain again.
now the prices are like waves and are under once. I was lucky enough to have sold most of the bitcoin I had at the 4200 $ price tag. see what happens today of course many people who will feel disappointed because no longer seen a positive trend that can make bitcoin prices increase. everyone is panicked when bitcoin prices continue to decline. I can not do anything right now, I just hope that bitcoin prices get back on track better than now.
That's right, we're all in a bubble, but this bubble can continue to continue if it is not punctured. In other words, if it is stable, it will last forever, but if it is affected badly, it can break down at any time.
but i do not think that we are in bubble because i think that the it is the actual price of bitcoin which has more potential to increase its price. Would you say the same if the standard unit was the satoshi (in a $5000 Bitcoin, a satoshi is worth 0.005 USD cents, or 0.00005 USD)? [...]
Sorry I don't quite understand what you're driving at. I do think the standard unit is the satoshi.In my opinion, it's irrelevant if "the Bitcoin" is at $5000, $1000 or $500000. You can buy any fraction of it, because the unit "Bitcoin" is defined in a totally arbitrary way as 100000000 satoshi. That's why I don't think there is a point where a "bubble territory begins" where people would stop to buy because it's "too expensive". If there was a psychological barrier, then most likely it was at $1000 - I don't get why it should be $5000.
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Massive sell-offs can't quite seem to make the price break below $4k. That's why I think BTC will remain between $4k and $5k until something new happens.
Well, now we broke through the $4K barrier. I think bulls will try to ride the next bounce to break $4000 again, but it won't be sustainable - for a couple of days at most, and probably it won't cross $4300. Would you say the same if the standard unit was the satoshi (in a $5000 Bitcoin, a satoshi is worth 0.005 USD cents, or 0.00005 USD)?
As I said already, I think the bubble territory started much before (at 1800-2500), but because of other reasons (too fast increase, no real world adoption that would justify that sharp increase).
As I said already, I think the bubble territory started much before (at 1800-2500), but because of other reasons (too fast increase, no real world adoption that would justify that sharp increase).
Sorry I don't quite understand what you're driving at. I do think the standard unit is the satoshi.
Massive sell-offs can't quite seem to make the price break below $4k. That's why I think BTC will remain between $4k and $5k until something new happens.
Crypto is still in it's infancy. I don't think that the bubble has even started to inflate yet.
I'm making a bold proclamation that bubble territory exists above the $5000 mark, simply because at that price level it starts to lose some of its intrinsic value as it becomes too expensive of an option for the vast majority of potential users.
Would you say the same if the standard unit was the satoshi (in a $5000 Bitcoin, a satoshi is worth 0.005 USD cents, or 0.00005 USD)?
As I said already, I think the bubble territory started much before (at 1800-2500), but because of other reasons (too fast increase, no real world adoption that would justify that sharp increase).
Quote
Too expensive not only in price (regardless of the fundamentals, its a psychological turnoff for those looking to invest or purchase some for other reasons), but in transaction fees as well. For example, 250 satoshis/byte is a lot more expensive today than it was 3 months ago.
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html
Strange graph. Since August, if I'm in a hurry, I don't use more than 50-60 sat/B (about $0.50 for a 192-byte transaction) and it normally gets confirmed in the first block. If I'm not in a hurry 20 sat/B are more than enough. The congestion is much less than in the first six months of 2016, so I really don't know who's driving that high the average transaction fee ...https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html
Segwit should drive the fees even lower. Segwit transactions are still not much used, that's why it had limited impact on block size/fees until now.
I'm making a bold proclamation that bubble territory exists above the $5000 mark, simply because at that price level it starts to lose some of its intrinsic value as it becomes too expensive of an option for the vast majority of potential users.
Too expensive not only in price (regardless of the fundamentals, its a psychological turnoff for those looking to invest or purchase some for other reasons), but in transaction fees as well. For example, 250 satoshis/byte is a lot more expensive today than it was 3 months ago.
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html
Regardless of SegWit, the overall trend in transaction fees is upward in terms of both dollars and satoshis. At $5 per transaction or higher bitcoin frequently becomes a more expensive option than corporate services such as PayPal and Western Union.
Moral of the story: I wouldn't start investing in bitcoin per se any time soon, but what do I know, I'm just a Noob.
Too expensive not only in price (regardless of the fundamentals, its a psychological turnoff for those looking to invest or purchase some for other reasons), but in transaction fees as well. For example, 250 satoshis/byte is a lot more expensive today than it was 3 months ago.
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html
Regardless of SegWit, the overall trend in transaction fees is upward in terms of both dollars and satoshis. At $5 per transaction or higher bitcoin frequently becomes a more expensive option than corporate services such as PayPal and Western Union.
Moral of the story: I wouldn't start investing in bitcoin per se any time soon, but what do I know, I'm just a Noob.
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