2010, 2011, 2013 (twice), now...
Bitcoin is almost certainly in a bubble, a short-term one. I think we may be flirting with the Greed phase, but who knows?
Long term, I'm still very bullish - we may still be at "smart money" or the "lunatic fringe" as Andreas Antonopoulos would phrase it, so eloquently the way he does.
Topic: So where exactly are we in the bubble? - page 4. (Read 5175 times)
No bubble here my friend. Every time media scream bubble bitcoin always reaches a new height
you must unlearn what you have learned. Do not try and predict the bubble. That's impossible. Instead only realize the truth... There is no bubble. Then you will see it is not the bubble that pops, it is yourself.
I find this a little bit funny...maybe soon we would realize that bubble is not really happening because in fact we are the bubbles flying around the corner looking for something which we should not be looking in the first place.
Some analyst would love to compare the tulip bulb mania bubble that happened centuries ago with what is happening right now in Bitcoin. But the question is: Is the comparison fair enough? Or are they just using that history because it happened anyway without looking at the factors and features of both sides.
However, it is always good to be forewarned so in case history would really repeat itself then we are already prepared...and as always be wise with the things you are investing your money with.
Indeed, a really nice point you are showing right here. Although, I don't think Bitcoin's price chart can be explained by the specific graph.
Bitcoin had a few recent pumps, but also a few dump periods. The price fluctuated a lot when it was in its
$3000's, dumping back to $2000s and then recovering to $2500~. It took some time to recover back to $3000 and then start pumping again, although it had a few price stabilizations during that period. For example, it's been around two weeks now that the price is in low $4000's.
However, the recent price pumps have got me worried, makes me reconsider if I should keep saving on BTC or not, since the price may fall.
Bitcoin had a few recent pumps, but also a few dump periods. The price fluctuated a lot when it was in its
$3000's, dumping back to $2000s and then recovering to $2500~. It took some time to recover back to $3000 and then start pumping again, although it had a few price stabilizations during that period. For example, it's been around two weeks now that the price is in low $4000's.
However, the recent price pumps have got me worried, makes me reconsider if I should keep saving on BTC or not, since the price may fall.
I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble?
Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts?
Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts?
Personally i have a feeling that we are in the bull trap area right now.
Either way, we are somewhere in the mania stages, or close to it. I don't think that there is any way that this isn't considered to be a mania when the price has risen by 1000%. There is simply no reason for the rise, or at least to fully justify such a big spike. WITH Bitcoin Cash going up, as well.
Wouldn't be surprised at all when at the end of the year people start panicking and overselling. This is when cheap coins is to be bought. Don't become too greedy and keep buying even though it is clear the bubble may collapse at any time.
There is not really a bubble if there is natural growth, and although it seems that bitcoin is growing a bit faster then expected, I still see this as a natural growth.
Although a minor correction is to be expected.
Although a minor correction is to be expected.
But you are talking about a temporary bubble.
Bubbles are temporary. They are normal phenomenons in the price evolution of an asset, when euphoria (about news or about the price evolution itself) lets "overheat" the price.
You are obviously right that nobody would care if this bubble only lasted for 3 months. But in my opinion it is well possible that we are near a high that will last for a year or even more.
We are in a bull market since late 2014. The last "leg" (from the last dip down to 1800 until now) has all characteristics of an Elliot 5 wave, there are only small corrections, the price is increasing very fast and has already more than doubled. In part it is justified, as I said, because of the Segwit adoption. But keep in mind that almost nothing has changed in terms of real-world adoption since 2016, and part of the Segwit speculation started already in the 1000-2000 $ area.
In terms of real world adoption Bitcoin is still a minor "currency", so its price is based 90% on speculation on what could occur in the future.
PS: I think Bitcoin will surpass $10.000 eventually, and maybe even $20.000, but not this year and probably also not in 2018.
Yes all bubbles are temporary, but by temporary, as you say, I'm talking about a few months. The only bitcoin bubble whose crash lasted for more than a few months was from Mt Gox dying. That was the most catastrophic thing to happen to bitcoin, so unless you think a similar event is going to happen soon, what you are predicting is extremely unlikely. Without a catastrophic catalyst like that, we're probably not gonna have any bubble pops that last for more than a few months. The buy pressure and increasing userbase/adoption is just too damn strong to possibly allow a down period of a year or more.
I wouldn't even call this a bubble at all. Look at past bitcoin bubbles. The price increased 10-fold or 30-fold or whatever in a couple of months. This has been a gradual increase, up 10-fold in over a year, not in two months. That suggests steady solid growth, not a frenzy induced bubble that will pop.
No bubble, will only rise from here until all of us are in our graves.
(only buy what you can afford to lose).
(only buy what you can afford to lose).
But you are talking about a temporary bubble.
Bubbles are temporary. They are normal phenomenons in the price evolution of an asset, when euphoria (about news or about the price evolution itself) lets "overheat" the price.
You are obviously right that nobody would care if this bubble only lasted for 3 months. But in my opinion it is well possible that we are near a high that will last for a year or even more.
We are in a bull market since late 2014. The last "leg" (from the last dip down to 1800 until now) has all characteristics of an Elliot 5 wave, there are only small corrections, the price is increasing very fast and has already more than doubled. In part it is justified, as I said, because of the Segwit adoption. But keep in mind that almost nothing has changed in terms of real-world adoption since 2016, and part of the Segwit speculation started already in the 1000-2000 $ area.
In terms of real world adoption Bitcoin is still a minor "currency", so its price is based 90% on speculation on what could occur in the future.
PS: I think Bitcoin will surpass $10.000 eventually, and maybe even $20.000, but not this year and probably also not in 2018.
I think we are in a bubble. That nearly all of the participants of this discussion are denying it is a clear sign that it is already in a very advanced stage (Delusion or even New Paradigm). And don't forget we are in a bull market since $135 in late 2014!
Yes, part of the growth is "justified" because of some (limited) real-world adoption and also the Segwit introduction that opens the door to a better scaling. But if it really will allow mass adoption is still speculation. Nobody knows if Lightning will work as expected (My opinion is that it will work, but it won't be the main payment method outside of micropayments).
That does not mean that the bubble cannot go on a bit more. Perhaps we'll see $5000 crossed, or even $6000. But one has to be careful. I expect a major correction or crash before the November fork.
Yes, part of the growth is "justified" because of some (limited) real-world adoption and also the Segwit introduction that opens the door to a better scaling. But if it really will allow mass adoption is still speculation. Nobody knows if Lightning will work as expected (My opinion is that it will work, but it won't be the main payment method outside of micropayments).
That does not mean that the bubble cannot go on a bit more. Perhaps we'll see $5000 crossed, or even $6000. But one has to be careful. I expect a major correction or crash before the November fork.
But you are talking about a temporary bubble. Who cares about those. The bubble popped back in June and looky here we are back way above the June ATH. Bitcoin may or my not be in a bubble if you're talking about the next month or two, sure it might drop back down before heading northward again to break new ground, but who really cares when a few months later the current bubble high will look tiny in comparison to where it is at then? True bubbles form when something has reached its full global audience and they get overly excited and then it pops, bitcoin is maybe 1% of the way there...maybe! So I really don't get the crazy constant talk about bubbles. Does the short term bubble really matter when 3 months after the pop that bubble high looks tiny to the current price? Did the June bubble pop matter in the long run? of course not, will the next? nope. the one after that? nope. and so on.
When the price is moving $10k per week upwards, then you can talk about a bubble.
I think we are in a bubble. That nearly all of the participants of this discussion are denying it is a clear sign that it is already in a very advanced stage (Delusion or even New Paradigm). And don't forget we are in a bull market since $135 in late 2014!
Yes, part of the growth is "justified" because of some (limited) real-world adoption and also the Segwit introduction that opens the door to a better scaling. But if it really will allow mass adoption is still speculation. Nobody knows if Lightning will work as expected (My opinion is that it will work, but it won't be the main payment method outside of micropayments).
That does not mean that the bubble cannot go on a bit more. Perhaps we'll see $5000 crossed, or even $6000. But one has to be careful. I expect a major correction or crash before the November fork.
Yes, part of the growth is "justified" because of some (limited) real-world adoption and also the Segwit introduction that opens the door to a better scaling. But if it really will allow mass adoption is still speculation. Nobody knows if Lightning will work as expected (My opinion is that it will work, but it won't be the main payment method outside of micropayments).
That does not mean that the bubble cannot go on a bit more. Perhaps we'll see $5000 crossed, or even $6000. But one has to be careful. I expect a major correction or crash before the November fork.
I agree that we are in a bubble but so far we are in the start of the bubble. Weighing the develpment, adoption and the increase ofBitcoin. The sudden increase in price this past months is quite steep and I can say the hype given by the announcementof the implementation of Bitcoin development that result in fork is quite high making bitcoin price to double or even triple in price. This is just the beginning of a bubble, and the peak is way far from here.
I think we are in a bubble. That nearly all of the participants of this discussion are denying it is a clear sign that it is already in a very advanced stage (Delusion or even New Paradigm). And don't forget we are in a bull market since $135 in late 2014!
Yes, part of the growth is "justified" because of some (limited) real-world adoption and also the Segwit introduction that opens the door to a better scaling. But if it really will allow mass adoption is still speculation. Nobody knows if Lightning will work as expected (My opinion is that it will work, but it won't be the main payment method outside of micropayments).
That does not mean that the bubble cannot go on a bit more. Perhaps we'll see $5000 crossed, or even $6000. But one has to be careful. I expect a major correction or crash before the November fork.
Yes, part of the growth is "justified" because of some (limited) real-world adoption and also the Segwit introduction that opens the door to a better scaling. But if it really will allow mass adoption is still speculation. Nobody knows if Lightning will work as expected (My opinion is that it will work, but it won't be the main payment method outside of micropayments).
That does not mean that the bubble cannot go on a bit more. Perhaps we'll see $5000 crossed, or even $6000. But one has to be careful. I expect a major correction or crash before the November fork.
you must unlearn what you have learned.
Do not try and predict the bubble. That's impossible. Instead only realize the truth... There is no bubble. Then you will see it is not the bubble that pops, it is yourself.
Do not try and predict the bubble. That's impossible. Instead only realize the truth... There is no bubble. Then you will see it is not the bubble that pops, it is yourself.
There may or may not be a bubble. It may burst, or the price might retrace to its earlier levels. In the end, if you have confidence in the long term potential of Bitcoin, it is only going to rise up.
you must unlearn what you have learned.
Do not try and predict the bubble. That's impossible. Instead only realize the truth... There is no bubble. Then you will see it is not the bubble that pops, it is yourself.
Do not try and predict the bubble. That's impossible. Instead only realize the truth... There is no bubble. Then you will see it is not the bubble that pops, it is yourself.
In my opinion, I think bitcoin is gradually growing out of the influence of bubble and burst category because its seems things are just quiet in this past few days even with the increasing price of BCH and the various news concerning how miners are dumping BTC for BCH and all other news on the contrary, bitcoin is still maintaining its position that it becomes so hard know whether its dumping or pumping.
Yes, the price now is not a bubble, it is now the stable price that survive the week, i see it dump at $3900 and back again at $4300 someone is dumping and someone is buying that dip. 
In my opinion, I think bitcoin is gradually growing out of the influence of bubble and burst category because its seems things are just quiet in this past few days even with the increasing price of BCH and the various news concerning how miners are dumping BTC for BCH and all other news on the contrary, bitcoin is still maintaining its position that it becomes so hard know whether its dumping or pumping.
Nothing can grow out of a bubble, or at least not in history.
Unless there is some justfiable reason for such high prices then i don't think that we are out of the bubble yet. The bubble usually ends when a) there is a massive correction or b) when enough new people actually use bitcoin to make the newly found price level justifiable(less common). It is usually a combination of the two.
Has bitcoin gained any new users from this bull wave? Absolutely, that is way i think we will maintain a nice price level of around $2k-$3k even after the price correction. But we are still in a bubble right now, and it could pop any moment.
In my opinion, I think bitcoin is gradually growing out of the influence of bubble and burst category because its seems things are just quiet in this past few days even with the increasing price of BCH and the various news concerning how miners are dumping BTC for BCH and all other news on the contrary, bitcoin is still maintaining its position that it becomes so hard know whether its dumping or pumping.
Do you see many institutional investors in Bitcoin at this time? Are pension funds including Bitcoin in their portfolios? I have exposure to this information at my job and can assure you they are not.
Based on this I would say that we are still in the stealth phase, possibly moving into the awareness phase.
That's great info to know bro. I feel the same in people around me. Most do not want to know much about bitcoin, but they have heard about it already. If this graph is going to be true... the big raise is much yet to come.
Ransomeware has caused a worldwide crisis, many people have said that bitcoin is the cause of the consequences, however, here, bitcoin is just a tool, it is taken advantage of. Even then, bitcoin is also trusted because of its security.
How exactly are we in the stealth phase?
Bitcoin is basically mentoined everywhere right now and media is only covering bitcoin stories because it generates a lot of hype and the viewers like it, and their hit rates go up. This is the definition of media generated hype, and bubble.
Sure, in the long term bitcoin is definitely still in its early stages but we're talking about this CURRENT bubble. Which IMO, is already nearing its end.
It's either in the mania phase, or in the blowoff phase. But definitely not in the stealth phase, and i think everyone agrees with that.
I agree with you on this matter. We should be in early stages of bitcoin, but this is not the stealth phase. One guy said that big ventures are not investing in bitcoin, so we're in stealth phase, but this is not right. Several ventures alredy investing in bitcoin for years.
How exactly are we in the stealth phase?
Bitcoin is basically mentoined everywhere right now and media is only covering bitcoin stories because it generates a lot of hype and the viewers like it, and their hit rates go up. This is the definition of media generated hype, and bubble.
Sure, in the long term bitcoin is definitely still in its early stages but we're talking about this CURRENT bubble. Which IMO, is already nearing its end.
It's either in the mania phase, or in the blowoff phase. But definitely not in the stealth phase, and i think everyone agrees with that.
I agree with you on this matter. We should be in early stages of bitcoin, but this is not the stealth phase. One guy said that big ventures are not investing in bitcoin, so we're in stealth phase, but this is not right. Several ventures alredy investing in bitcoin for years.
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