The only bitcoin bubble whose crash lasted for more than a few months was from Mt Gox dying. That was the most catastrophic thing to happen to bitcoin, so unless you think a similar event is going to happen soon, what you are predicting is extremely unlikely. Without a catastrophic catalyst like that, we're probably not gonna have any bubble pops that last for more than a few months. The buy pressure and increasing userbase/adoption is just too damn strong to possibly allow a down period of a year or more.
The problem is that the "adoption" we think to see now, in reality, is only speculation. And, at least in part, speculation of the worst kind. A significant part of the demand is based on MLM schemes in many parts of the world and other scams.
When these schemes pop, then we'll have disappointed "potential customers" all over the world.
No, I'm not saying "it already popped". What's presently happening is a normal correction/downmove. But I don't think we'll go steady up to 10K and more from now. My prediction is that the large crash is still before us - when the price increases are too slow to feed the MLM schemes (maybe we have already seen 2017's high at ~4950) and they pop.
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I wouldn't even call this a bubble at all. Look at past bitcoin bubbles. The price increased 10-fold or 30-fold or whatever in a couple of months. This has been a gradual increase, up 10-fold in over a year, not in two months. That suggests steady solid growth, not a frenzy induced bubble that will pop.
I have heard this argument many times, but I don't agree. With a higher market cap, it becomes increasingly more difficult for the price to increase drastically. With a low market cap, you put in a few million dollars and the price doubles or triples. In the present situation, that's not longer true.
Bitcoin has now a market cap that's more similar to major stocks. Every stock that almost doubled in a month will be considered in a bubble if it's not justified by some big achievement.
KEY difference here: bitcoin is not a stock!!!
It is not a single company's shares, it is an entire global payment platform and currency. Yes its market cap is now the size of pretty big companies, and yet bitcoin's global adoption is absolutely microscopic still. You can't compare bitcoin's market cap to the stock of a single company. A better comparison is gold. Bitcoin is about 1% the size of the gold market cap. So it terms of bitcoin's potential it is in fact still a very very low market cap, which is why it can grow a lot and simply get a correction, like it is currently getting, and then keep growing, without collapsing in a bubble pop as long as adoption continues to grow.
People really shouldn't even be talking about bitcoin being in a bubble unless it gets into the 6-digits but isn't actually used for payments much, that would tell you that there is a ton of investor money in it without it actually being used much. So talking about a bitcoin bubble at $5000 is just a complete joke.
