And something more: The only thing that may be worthy of your time is finding a solution to the reward scaling issue.
This is the only thing that I can think of that it can render the platform DOA.
Users can experience explosive growth, say go from 50k to 50mn. (1000x)
What about rewards though? Can marketcap go from 200mn to 200bn to preserve them? Obviously not.
Why not?
Because if I extend this even further to a user base like 500 million (closer to twitter and instagram levels - and still 1/3 or 1/4 that of facebook), it then requires a marketcap of 2 trillion - which is an absurd amount. And I'm not accounting for increase in value due to network effect - my assumption is for linear relation.
Sure at some point it may slow down a bit, but these are relatively small factors.
We could end up being shocked when the world figures out that the industrial age economy has a negative profit potential and they better shift to something of value.
It is a long-shot, but not unthinkable.
If it gets to 50 million users and beyond then much of the value of the network will be things other than getting paid for your blog. Everyone in the world is not a blogger. Actually as I've stated earlier in these threads, already most people aren't going to be paid much because they dod't produce much of value. They may get a few coins here and there which might be enough to seed the concept of crypto for them, but if it goes beyond that they will earn or buy coins.
The ecosystem will absolutely not stay stuck on blogging.
The different ways value will be generated will proliferate.
It is going to cause dizziness it will be so fast due to open systems.
We are the cusp of the biggest thing ever.
But I would argue strongly against its probability of happening.
I would argue that 50-500 million users on Steem is highly improbable, but conditional on that happening, a very high (relative to current cryptos) market cap is almost a certainty.
Agreed.
But the probability of it happening on some blockchain is better (more chances and forking allowed for more experiments/challenges), although still a long-shot. But if someone nails the killer app, we will be on our way to the moon.
Make sure you pick your horses well or diversify.
I don't know if it'll get to threaten bitcoin though - although I can't rule it out.
A Steem-like concept could blow by Bitcoin easily. But still everything is highly improbable at this juncture.