Topic: Something, something, something, technical analysis - page 11. (Read 31170 times)

If I've got this right you are in earlier than you were planning a couple of weeks ago am I right?

What was your planned buy-in point a couple of weeks ago compared with the price you actually bought in, if I may ask?

This chart looks very similar (identical) to one of the EW possibilities that I have got on the go. But since I missed my last buy-in trigger due to being 'off duty', I am now in this quandary whether to buy in at a point where we have come very high in a short space of time without any meaningful correction. There is clearly some kind of consolidation phase underway but will be break up or correct back down to $50+?


We are right on a very prominent resistance point, and consolidating. I have been in ($565) and out ($572) of the market during this consolidation phase. I can't make head nor tails of it but since we have come so far (over $100) in such a short space of time without anything more than a 20% correction after any leg up, the probability of 'thee correction' occurring becomes greater and greater. Instead of faffing around with a big pile of short term indicators that amount to nothing more than random noise at the end of the day, If I am to re-enter long, then I will have to see the $585 being taken out at volume. Annoying, considering I did have the correct plan of action in place had I been around to act on it. If I am in bed again when what ever entity is driving this rally starts ramping again, then so be it.

That wave 1 is what I'm talking about. It appears more to be a 3 wave structure than a 5 waver. To force a 5 wave count to it, leaves the 4 very disproportionate to the 2. While it is possible, I guess, it isn't my first count because of the this. As a C of (B), it could really stop anywhere, unfortunately. (B) can even make new ATH's. If it's a 3 of V (or iii of 1 of V..) then it has more limits.

My original target for a large B wave was this;


The lower end is a minimum (61.8% of the 'a' from $339-547) that C had to travel to be considered complete (ie. ~$550). The upper end is the 61.8% fibo retrace of the whole bear market thus far (~$850).

I wish I had one. If I would have been caught with my pants down (i.e. asleep :P), I'd probably be buying in even now, but be on the watch for reversals at the well known resistances, or after a simple failure to sustain momentum. The risk that we break through, say 630 anyway, and you'll be forced to buy in at that level would be too big for me. I /do/ think there's a good chance we'll see 550, or even 530 again in the next days, even if we sustain momentum overall, but bet on it? I don't think I would.

Question is, how far up will the corrective Wave (c) go, before the final leg Wave [C] of the primary Wave 4 begins?

Also would there be an argument that

$340 - $547 - impulse Wave 1

$547 - $440 - corrective Wave 2 (Fib 67%)

$440 - $586  and counting (or perhaps not) impulse Wave 3.

If we are in a Wave 3, then we could have a long way to go from here. Although I do admit, the length and angle of the rallies do indeed suggest correction market psychology other than impulse market psychology.

That is one inherent problem with EW... 10 people will likely come up with 10 different but completely valid counts. Until they are invalidated, you don't know which is right! At any given time, I have 4+ counts going in my charts. Some are bullish and some are bearish. All have fibo and a special set of indicators I use just for counting. That way you have solid invalidation points to eliminate counts from the group.
I made a comment in the cryptowaves thread that you must confirm your counts with indicators. Otherwise, you let your own biases form your counts. Counting waves is just a way to see what is possible next. It's not intended to be a single trading system.

That all said, the rise from $339 to $550 does not look impulsive to me from an EW standpoint. This leads me to believe that this is a bull trap, and we are in the C-wave right now.  

I am a believer in EW in that it provides good cues for potential buy points and sell points whichever way the market goes and whether your counts are bearish or bullish. Indeed, I have both a bull count and a bear count on the go. I caught my first buy point at $460, but bottled out at $520. Again using EW principles, my next buy point was to be where price action breached the long term downtrend. This turned out to be $540, as I went to my bed, Bitcoin was creeping around up to $530, but there was nothing convincing me at that point to take a position.

When I got out my bed, Bitcoin was topping out at $586. We are now at $565. Although I am yet to be convinced that the bear trend has reversed, I feel that now that the Dec 2013 trendline has been breached, that a Wave (B) of a grander Wave [4] could take Bitcoin right up to $700s before correcting. However, we have already had a very vertical leg up and must surely now be in for some kind of meaningful correction (mind you, I was thinking this at $547). What would be your own short term view on Bitcoin with regards to timing a new market entry point?

I admit (as I did in the past) that I know very little about EW, and have even less confidence applying it correctly. So I can't directly say if I think you're right or not.

I will however point out that I'm under the impression that EW analysis, even more than other TA, is subject to extreme variance in results among those who practice it. With triangles, for example, the discussion was largely which extrema the resistance and support lines should go through exactly, or whether to use log or linear. With EW analysis, right now there seem to be those who imprint a bullish count on the charts, seeing us go a long way up (chessnut), those who see an extremely bearish count (DanV), and some in the middle, or who offer more than one possible count (waveaddict).

My point? I'm willing to believe EW is useful to those who know how to use it properly, but I'm not one of those people. So, in the absence of being able to look at the current situation through EW glasses, I will look at the (more tangible) signals that are accessible to me. And they look pretty good at the moment, both in the sense that I don't pick up an end to the current rally yet (if I had to guess, I'd say SMA200 could be the resistance that breaks its back), and that I see several signs that we did indeed find the bottom of the 2013/14 bear market at $340, and found buying support in the mid-$400s.

actually Mark Karples is the Warren Buffet of Buttcoin.

yeah, you are the  Warren Buffet of bitcoin

Strange that you admit it that.....

......but.....

If you are overall underwater, and despite me having had an utterly horrendous trade recently, I am still overall well in profit from my Bitcoin escapades.

Who are you to say that I am a noob trader?

I mean, I am a noob trader, but surely that is still a lot better a trader than what you are.

I have made money. You have lost money.

Edit: I fail for wasting mental energies on such a self-professed halfwit when I have better things to focus my efforts on (i.e. to buy or not to buy).

yes I am still underwater. But as hodler this is not a Problem
Bought in at about 750 $ .My last buy was 350 $ 20  BTC
your gentlemanlike idoms/words are very impressive
But not my style

My recent buy-in plans would suggest otherwise. I caught one sweet, came out a bit early ($520) but intended to rebuy back in should a certain trend line be taken out.....it was, but I can't stay awake 24 hours.......


........and you are one to talk about being a TA noob......you fucking grade A HODLER you. Admit it, segeln, you are still underwater on Bitcoin. I have viewed your old posts.

Bitcoin at $1000 "Buy and Hold Buy and Hold"
Bitcoin at $800 "Buy and Hold Buy and Hold"

Cos when Bitcoin goes to $2000, them there will be good prices, right?

"Buy and Hold, Buy and Hold"

Fucking parrot clown.

stop trading.you are not apt for that.
Just a troll and TA noob

no , most oversold,not overbought

The waves resemble corrective (ABC) waves far more than impulse waves, yet the remaining long term down trend was broken through emphatically. This would have been a must buy-in point for me (~$540), but I was in my bed and Bitstamp's trading tools are fkn shit...so no facility for auto-triggering trade at certain price point. So I kind of missed my planned rebuy in point (I got $460 - $520) and am now in a real dilemma as to what move I should take. After all, Everyone was waiting on that long term resistance line being breached and it would be exactly this kind of market pushing that would allow whales to cash in on a rush of sentiment. Do I risk having my rush of sentiment cashed in on?

Whilst on paper, very significant bullish indicators have been breached, but perhaps this upswing has been far too vertical and must surely represent excessive market sentiment other than a sweeping groundswell of fresh interest in Bitcoin?

Charts show most overbought since January, at the peak of wave B. For now this looks like a bull trap to me.

Above $534. First Fibonacci retracement level of entire downtrend broken.

Good news: we managed to decisively get above $534, the first (23.6%) retracement when looking at the entire downtrend so far, from ~1200 to ~340.

Note 1: I'm going to assume we close above, on daily. Failure to do so would be, hm, not so great.

Note 2: doesn't mean we're out of the danger zone entirely, in my opinion --  volume is still too low to say with certainty that we're going to see a sustained rally already. But it is what it is: a very positive signal. (2nd chart for comparison: what happened when we made it above 23% last year)


2014, Bitstamp




2013, Mtgox

Excellent points.

Initially, I kept thinking that the early April run-up should look like July last year, but that was way too optimistic of course. I like to think of the period right now as our "2nd chance" to get out of the bear market.

I follow your ratio analysis, and don't have much to say other than that it makes some sense, and that I would add: what made July '13 such a clear reversal was that the piercing of the mid term average (1h SMA200, 30d EMA works as well) was rejected almost immediately. The drop was followed by a step-by-step climb up through the fibo levels, with almost no further retracements, on rising volume (I think I posted the details of that climb several pages ago in here). That's what I'd like to see again, after we'll see the (probably inevitable) next drop.

Indeed, I suspect the bulls are getting over-excited over the exit of the long bear market and we'll soon see more heavy retraces and periods of consolidation before any real bubble-like growth can begin. Parallels might be drawn to 2013, where the bottom ($62) was followed by a sharp move to $100, followed by the first major drop.



Interestingly, applying the ratio of this on our presumed bottom (340) returns 548, so that might just be a local top followed by the expected heavier pullback (unless we go all the way to daily SMA200 in one shot).

Furthermore, I am paying close attention to hourly SMA200 (which lucif dubbed as "the holy grail of all bubbles" and so, by default, must be significant ) to get a sense of possible supports and whatnot. For now it is positioned very close to the long-term log support line, and during the aforementioned 2013 post-bottom drop it was pierced pretty heavily, so it's possible the support line will be tested before taking off properly.



However, I'm not entirely sure 2013 patterns are anything to go by in this case, as we never even crossed daily SMA200 then, so obviously the situation is (to some extent, at least) different. Then again, experience has taught me that ratios in particular tend to be consistent and static, defying common sense, so who knows.

edit: Another interesting thing I just noticed; applying the ratio of the local top (100) and bottom (76) for the above 2013 drop on daily SMA200 (currently around 630) results in 478, which is extremely close to the support line, which (judging by super-fringe and nooby ratio (over)analysis) would seem to support the notion of us going that far before the hypothetical major drop to test the line.