Topic: Something, something, something, technical analysis - page 7. (Read 31170 times)

I dunno but 2 years away is already far too long a timescale for 99% of people on this forum charts aren't my bag though, so absolutely don't make any decisions based on my hacked together pngs! This was just a visual that kind of shows what i thought might generally happen. id fully expect those lines to not actually be a meaningful price boundaries.

But what will happen as price continues into this contracting range? Either way, it can't sustain forever, and a new trend must develop.

If i did have to make a chart illustrate it, it might look like this...



Trend is up volatility slowly decreases over time 5k is only a few years out but the road there is strewn with doubt.

Very much agree with this. I am not betting on the charts painting near replicas of the last bubbles, as many people are. 2-5 years is reasonable, and I think indeed that price action may pan out very differently than what many expect.

More or less the way I see it, too.

Ah, interesting and good points. Luckily, according to your chart, the decrease seems to be very slow, so it would indeed seem we, at the very least, have a few more bubble cycles to go.

Though an alternative scenario could be a fractal 3-bubble cycle, where (if 2012 is excluded) the last bubble was wave 3 of 5, and the next bubble will be akin to the 2011 one, breaking the pattern of decreasing volatility, which would also be a repeat of history as the two bubbles before the big one in 2011 saw slightly decreasing BBW and ROC peaks, just like the 2013 bubbles.

But again this is all just more wishful thinking I guess we'll have to wait and see if Bitcoin will defy expectations and explode in extreme volatile glory, or (more likely I guess) if it's slowly becoming stable and boring.

Maybe that was a misunderstanding then: My point was as well that I don't see us entering "stable growth" yet. Not for a few years, possibly.

I would however argue that volatility shows some signs of decreasing over time. By two relevant measures, rate of change and bollinger band width, used on a weekly or monthly time scale, the absolute peak is still the 2011 bubble cycle, and at least by bbw, the late 2013 cycle was slightly less volatile than the early 2013 one.

Not much to work with, admitted, but I can see the scenario where we have continued exponential run-ups to new ATHs, but each of them is slightly less violent than the previous one.

Summer 2012 would like to have a word with you

My own gut feeling tells me we're far from a "stable growth phase" yet, which can also be seen in these past few weeks/months of volatility on charts, which so far hasn't strayed from normal BTC behavior. If the anticipated "big investors" (wall street etc) are in fact beginning/going to buy in, I could definitely see bubble rises to at least $10k levels (though maybe not in the upcoming bubble, which imo (again based purely on gut feeling) is more likely to be like the 2012 one).

But as you say bett, this pattern can't hold forever. Unless we get a wonderfully drawn-out and bloody bear market somewhere in-between, taking us to fresh lows and giving the rocket some much-needed refuel time. Possibly coinciding with the more general upcoming markets crash luc and others keep going on about.

Maybe it's just wishful thinking though. Would be utterly shite for the rollercoaster-ride to end just as I was beginning to enjoy myself

I'll accept that premise *only* exponential rises from here on in

I think these rises will be much longer and drawn out, bit more like other markets. Mostly though, long term, up.

I just don't see how those really regular patterns go the last three highs can continue? Maybe thats what 'they' want people to think though. I sure won't complain if they do.

I have a hard time believing that. We agreed somewhere else that the patterns will probably become more difficult to recognize, but it's one of the very few bets I'd actually be willing to make: we will see another bubble cycle that differs from the previous ones only gradually (say, price increase by factor 5 instead of factor 10).

I have inspected your chart, that suggests history repeats itself...

If something hasn't broken it can never break?

I see.

Your rambling is unsubstantiated. There has yet to be a break in the overall trend line. We're going up:
https://www.tradingview.com/v/A1qSApSj/

Expect a couple weeks of this stability.

My analysis (short to medium term) based on nothing but a gut feeling is the current rise is a tiny bit overextended, which is perfect for an engineered smack down designed to shake out a few loose coins to be snapped up cheap, before we resume a gentle uptrend.

Long term, I think this is it for super-exponential rises followed by blowoffs.

I think the 4-5 figure target is almost inevitable in the 2-5 year timeframe, but I think the route by which we get there is going to be very different to what people are used to and fraught with peril.

Forgive me for the lack of chart to back up my rambling

So, what's urinalysis?

My thinking precisely!

Except the times in the past when we have actually agreed with each other, we have normally turned out to be wrong.

It's also possible we'll continue to consolidate here for another week or two. My longest triangle count ends at the 22nd.



There also seems to be hidden bearish div on 30m MACD, though at that timescale I'm not sure what significance it has, if any. Yet that, and price being so close to the support lines, does make me a bit wary. It could further be argued that the real triangle (red support line in chart above) was already broken down on the 9th, although I'm hesitant to go with that idea and would rather await confirmation of the short-term bear scenario by the breaking of lower supports.

As for daily MACD about to go negative, that could mean two things in my view. It could "bounce", as it did it November 2013 where, just as it was about to cross down, the market resolved to shoot up instead. But that was within the bubble, and a fairer comparison could be September 2013 where it did cross down, which was followed by a month long consolidation period.

Also, the "magic" pre-bubble RSI level I noticed in my previous post has again seemingly been met (84.5), and now it's crossed down from being in overbought territory.

If that historic pattern continues to hold, it would support the longer consolidation/sideways movement scenario before the big rally can begin (which could be achieved by either a short-term price drop and formation of a much larger triangle pattern, a short spike (to $750-ish?) and the same, or just continuing within the longer triangle formation(s) at this level).

But then again lucif seems confident that it will (eventually?) go up from here, and I make it a habit to preemptively pack my bags when the clown prophet says we're going to the moon

We're getting closer to a decision point, I believe: Bollinger band width is near a point where the market usually starts moving again. The (hidden) bullish divergence on the 2h MFI (works on 6h as well) makes me lean towards upwards breakout, but daily MACD is about to go negative which means there's also reason to go down, short term.

Whatever way it moves at first though, I see a lot more potential to the upside than the downside currently: slow momentum is there (3d MACD positive, 1w MACD about to go positive), we're just banging our head against the daily SMA200 ~= 38% fib of entire downtrend ~= $650 resistance for now.

One way I could see it resolve is a dip at first, down to around daily SMA20 (~$612), then gathering the momentum to break the $650 resistance on the rebound.

Nice to see this thread still alive, there is almost no TA left anywhere in this forum

Now we consolidating in 630-640 area on Stamp. Up or down from here?

The local bottom at ~$620 on Stamp was exactly the target of triple top formation, so we could try to go up from here. On the other hand, since $450 breakout, we went almost always up, without any substantial correction. Moreover, after at least 3 failed attempts to go above $680, even if we go North of $640, panic selling may begin even earlier this time? Yet on third hand  , some longs closed and new shorts opened on 'Finex. These shorts may be squeezed/scared by a move toward $680?

Thoughts?

happened again today, the top was exactly at the point where it hit the old line.