Something, something, something, technical analysis - page 12.

oda.krell

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Short update on daily cloud, money flow

The 6h money flow view, which was the dominant reason for making me (cautiously) optimistic a week ago, continues to look pretty good (see first chart below). In addition we're going through the daily Ichimoku cloud quicker than I expected. We're currently sitting right below the upper boundary of the cloud (~$507), but I see a good chance that one more push will put us above eventually.

(aside: I'm looking into different parameters for the cloud, other than the standard ones... haven't found any that I like better yet, but will continue looking. Thanks for the suggestion, bucktotal)

We're still far below the daily SMA200, which by conventional wisdom means we should expect bearish throwbacks all the way up.

To reiterate the main point I was trying to make since my first MFI post: while I'm still skeptical whether we're entering a sustained bullish environment already (not enough fresh fiat for that yet, in my opinion), it looks to me like mid-400s marks a "sustainable price plateau", for the first time since the 2014 bear market began. So for those who were worried about a continued decline of the USD value of their trading account, this seemed like a good (re)entrance point.

bucktotal

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Quote from: oda.krell on May 21, 2014, 05:32:28 AM

Quote from: bucktotal on May 20, 2014, 05:19:52 PM

on apr 24 i posted the above suggesting we had just started the trend reversal.

here is the update to this chart a few weeks farther along.

I've added my tuned SAR indicator, perhaps the clearest indicator of reversal over the years (but of course lags).

[...]

I'm not dismissing your findings, but I don't agree with the way you present them either.

The question is similar to the one brought up by JustAnotherSheep two posts ago, about the earlier break of the linear downtrend: if price retraces again substantially and the market enters a low volume phase for more than an entire month, was it really already a 'reversal' at that time, or did the market itself wait for another confirmation? We should distinguish the (post facto) event "the bottom was in at that point" and the (determined as we go along) decision "reversal, yes or no?".

Part of that question is hypothetical, since we have seen yesterday the 2nd confirmation of a reversal. Another part of the question is not hypothetical at all: when should you buy in? Buying in at the earlier reversal signal would have meant getting in at 480 to 500. Waiting for the breakthrough yesterday gave you more certainty, as well as a better price: between 455 (if you were really fast) and 470.

Of course, if you were even faster, you were able to buy at 340 to 400, but we're talking about confirmation scenarios here, not buying into the bottom itself.

but you'll note that these charts have no trend lines. here, i've been showing bitcoin-tuned moving average indicators that help me see rates of change, and changes in rates of change. they are tuned to hopefully filter out noise and show me more clearly what stage we are in with respect to the long-term market oscillations.

personally, i was buying all the panic dips into the 350-500 range across a few exchanges anyway before these lagging signals. but for my more conservative investors funds that i manage (a.k.a., friends and family), i started buying at the earlier reversal signal that i posted, and buying all dips and a little every day over the past few weeks.

oda.krell

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Quote from: bucktotal on May 20, 2014, 05:19:52 PM

on apr 24 i posted the above suggesting we had just started the trend reversal.

here is the update to this chart a few weeks farther along.

I've added my tuned SAR indicator, perhaps the clearest indicator of reversal over the years (but of course lags).

[...]

I'm not dismissing your findings, but I don't agree with the way you present them either.

The question is similar to the one brought up by JustAnotherSheep two posts ago, about the earlier break of the linear downtrend: if price retraces again substantially and the market enters a low volume phase for more than an entire month, was it really already a 'reversal' at that time, or did the market itself wait for another confirmation? We should distinguish the (post facto) event "the bottom was in at that point" and the (determined as we go along) decision "reversal, yes or no?".

Part of that question is hypothetical, since we have seen yesterday the 2nd confirmation of a reversal. Another part of the question is not hypothetical at all: when should you buy in? Buying in at the earlier reversal signal would have meant getting in at 480 to 500. Waiting for the breakthrough yesterday gave you more certainty, as well as a better price: between 455 (if you were really fast) and 470.

Of course, if you were even faster, you were able to buy at 340 to 400, but we're talking about confirmation scenarios here, not buying into the bottom itself.

bucktotal

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Quote from: oda.krell on May 20, 2014, 09:59:12 AM

Quote from: studio1one on May 20, 2014, 09:57:11 AM

Clouds dammit. I want clouds.

Way too early for that Cheesy

But chances are better now we're getting there pretty soon, I believe.

its important to consider the consequences of using the default settings on any indicator. its far safer to assume that each dynamic system has unique intrinsic properties, and adjust accordingly to better describe whats going on.

we indeed popped through the cloud today. but it was fast, so i'd just give it time to play out.

bucktotal

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Quote from: bucktotal on April 24, 2014, 04:50:23 PM

taking a step back again, and looking at the longer-term trends in some indicators, it appears they have all flipped this past week Cheesy

on apr 24 i posted the above suggesting we had just started the trend reversal.

here is the update to this chart a few weeks farther along.

I've added my tuned SAR indicator, perhaps the clearest indicator of reversal over the years (but of course lags).

oda.krell

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Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on May 20, 2014, 01:24:04 PM

Agree with the bullishness. Breakthrough of short-term + the 2 longer-term log trendlines, with volume and force, was plenty enough to turn me bull and post the obligatory rocket pic in the wall observer thread Grin

Now I just pray to all the market gods that, as you say, I'm not being played by a very clever (and very rich) whale. Or even worse, that this Wave B out of C, and that once we reach the top (estimated, in such a scenario, to be $600~ based on SMA200, fractal ratio analysis of the mid bear-cycle's top and bottom (400-710) as well as the good ol' fibhorn) we're in for another 6-month bear-market.

But this is far too bearish a scenario, even worse than 2011, makes no sense in our current situation (particularly if Wall Street is indeed gaining interest as rumored).

Edit: It's interesting to note how, in retrospect, the breaking of the linear resistance line seems a more valid signal of trend reversal than the log one(s), as it told the same tale only far earlier. One could call it a lucky fluke. Yet somehow it doesn't look like it, as the strong adherence to it as support after the breakthrough would lend weight to it still being a valid (if not the major) line. Lesson for next time not to dismiss the linear chart so readily in favor of my bearish bias.

Not sure about that.

Wrt price, it made very little difference, at least for the linear trendline and log trendline that I looked at (broken through at 445 on linear, at 449 on the log one).

But the real test is always 'breakthrough on volume'. And that one clearly goes to the log line.

EDIT: I see your point now. You mean the linear trendline that connects to the December high. Agreed, volume wise you could argue it was at least as good as the current one, but the linear one you mean broke through at ~~499~~ 520, then retraced quite a lot (down to 420), which is why I guess the market needed at least another confirmation.

JustAnotherSheep

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Agree with the bullishness. Breakthrough of short-term + the 2 longer-term log trendlines, with volume and force, was plenty enough to turn me bull and post the obligatory rocket pic in the wall observer thread Grin

Now I just pray to all the market gods that, as you say, I'm not being played by a very clever (and very rich) whale. Or even worse, that this Wave B out of C, and that once we reach the top (estimated, in such a scenario, to be $600~ based on SMA200, fractal ratio analysis of the mid bear-cycle's top and bottom (400-710) as well as the good ol' fibhorn) we're in for another 6-month bear-market.

But this is far too bearish a scenario, even worse than 2011, makes no sense in our current situation (particularly if Wall Street is indeed gaining interest as rumored).

Edit: It's interesting to note how, in retrospect, the breaking of the linear resistance line seems a more valid signal of trend reversal than the log one(s), as it told the same tale only far earlier. One could call it a lucky fluke. Yet somehow it doesn't look like it, as the strong adherence to it as support after the breakthrough would lend weight to it still being a major (if not the major) line. Lesson for next time not to dismiss the linear chart so readily in favor of my bearish bias.

oda.krell

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Quote from: lebing on May 20, 2014, 11:45:51 AM

Just piping in here to say this isnt a circle jerk and there are more people following your stuff than you think ;)

Thanks! I really appreciate that :)

lebing

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Enabling the maximal migration

Just piping in here to say this isnt a circle jerk and there are more people following your stuff than you think Wink

oda.krell

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The following is just a side remark, posted in full awareness that, while the current breakout looks solid to me, it could still turn out to be false, or at least retrace so much it'd hurt.

Anyway, here's a 15 min view of the breakout, together with the LT log downtrend I (and many others) have been going on about for ages...

Jup. That's clearly the shape of a big middle finger forming, aimed at those who think trendlines are just "randomly drawn lines on a chart" :D

Also, don't say it's "just a self-fulfilling prophecy". Even if it were one, it would still mean you can't ignore it.

EDIT

Quote from: oda.krell on April 25, 2014, 04:43:35 PM

[...]

Taken together, those trendlines meet at 4 points:

(1) (Latest) Time of conclusion: Late May. Price point of conclusion: low to mid 400s. A possible candidate to mark the end of the December bear market. It would mean the 400 trendline held after all, but so does the more severe downtrend (B). Assuming it would break out downwards, we would get to:

[...]

studio1one

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BintexFutures

Quote from: oda.krell on May 20, 2014, 09:59:12 AM

Quote from: studio1one on May 20, 2014, 09:57:11 AM

Clouds dammit. I want clouds.

Way too early for that Cheesy

But chances are better now we're getting there pretty soon, I believe.

My flair is officially bullish. First time since March.

oda.krell

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Quote from: studio1one on May 20, 2014, 09:57:11 AM

Clouds dammit. I want clouds.

Way too early for that :D

But chances are better now we're getting there pretty soon, I believe.

studio1one

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BintexFutures

Quote from: oda.krell on May 20, 2014, 09:53:32 AM

Update on long term downtrend and Money Flow

Long term log downtrend broken: check

SMA50 broken: check

Money flow stable to rising: check

Comparably low volume so far (though better than the week before), which is both consistent with "guided action" by a whale, or just the cautiousness you'd expect after a long bear market.

I do however take the MFI development (since my last post about it) as evidence that we have decent price support at this level, so even if we don't see a high-volume rally coming up in the next days (which the bulls are cheering for now), I now consider the events 'rally' or 'slow crawl upwards' strictly more likely than 'sudden crash' or 'slow crawl downwards'.

To be on the safe side, waiting for confirmation through volume until tomorrow could be a good idea, but it can also mean you're missing out on profit. Your choice.

tl;dr If this is another pump & dump, it is well enough orchestrated for me to think this is the real deal. Short-to-mid term bullish again.

Clouds dammit. I want clouds.

oda.krell

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Update on long term downtrend and Money Flow

Long term log downtrend broken: check

SMA50 broken: check

Money flow stable to rising: check

Comparably low volume so far (though better than the week before), which is both consistent with "guided action" by a whale, or just the cautiousness you'd expect after a long bear market.

I do however take the MFI development (since my last post about it) as evidence that we have decent price support at this level, so even if we don't see a high-volume rally coming up in the next days (which the bulls are cheering for now), I now consider the events 'rally' or 'slow crawl upwards' strictly more likely than 'sudden crash' or 'slow crawl downwards'.

To be on the safe side, waiting for confirmation through volume until tomorrow could be a good idea, but it can also mean you're missing out on profit. Your choice.

tl;dr If this is another pump & dump, it is well enough orchestrated for me to think this is the real deal. Short-to-mid term bullish again.

oda.krell

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Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on May 19, 2014, 05:49:09 AM

Quote from: oda.krell on May 19, 2014, 05:42:58 AM

Valid point. I base my claim of seller exhaustion on the following observations: declining BBW, overall declining volume as price declines, and (more locally) lower volume on each progressive "crash". I do believe (and agree with you in that) that this can be temporary, and possibly more bear market will bring back the panic. I just observe that, right now, any local decline in price seems to trigger only small reactions.

I earnestly hope you are wrong, as this endless sideways movement is absolutely horrid and does not befit the typical, exciting rollercoaster-ride that is Bitcoin. If it turns out we're just breaking out of the triangle for yet another drawn-out and disappointing period of sideways stagnation, I do believe I shall shoot myself out of boredom.

I talked to a lady at the bitcoin foundation member meeting two days ago (a real, live lady! double x chromosomes! at bitcoin!) (I'm kidding. lots of ladies in bitcoin.) (only about 10 to 15% I guess. great now I'm depressed :/) who said that she'd consider less volatility much preferable to the current situation. She works for a large European company that didn't integrate anything Bitcoin yet, but they seem to keep their eyes open.

Not exactly 6 o'clock news (companies abhor risk, volatility = risk), but I'm just putting that out here: us traders might dislike flat periods, but big business probably doesn't mind it.

JustAnotherSheep

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Quote from: oda.krell on May 19, 2014, 05:42:58 AM

Valid point. I base my claim of seller exhaustion on the following observations: declining BBW, overall declining volume as price declines, and (more locally) lower volume on each progressive "crash". I do believe (and agree with you in that) that this can be temporary, and possibly more bear market will bring back the panic. I just observe that, right now, any local decline in price seems to trigger only small reactions.

I earnestly hope you are wrong, as this endless sideways movement is absolutely horrid and does not befit the typical, exciting rollercoaster-ride that is Bitcoin. If it turns out we're just breaking out of the triangle for yet another drawn-out and disappointing period of sideways stagnation, I do believe I shall shoot myself out of boredom.

oda.krell

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Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on May 19, 2014, 05:25:41 AM

I don't think sellers' exhaustion entirely applies to this situation, at least not yet. As demonstrated in the other thread linking to that article on blockchain analysis, there's still a crapload of ~3-month holders, most of which are presumably deep underwater, and a breakthrough of the long-term support line (as is possibly happening now, no volume as of yet though so could be false), would confirm a continuation of the bear market which, I believe, would prompt many of these hodlers to sell in hopes of buying back later on (or perhaps pulling a Veronica and leaving the game entirely).

This is, of course, not even accounting for the risk-taking traders and (possibly) whales who were expecting an upwards breakthrough and price spike, and would probably be among the first to sell now, creating enough momentum for the hodlers to follow suit.

Valid point. I base my claim of seller exhaustion on the following observations: declining BBW, overall declining volume as price declines, and (more locally) lower volume on each progressive "crash". I do believe (and agree with you in that) that this can be temporary, and possibly more bear market will bring back the panic. I just observe that, right now, any local decline in price seems to trigger only small reactions.

JustAnotherSheep

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I don't think sellers' exhaustion entirely applies to this situation, at least not yet. As demonstrated in the other thread linking to that article on blockchain analysis, there's still a crapload of ~3-month holders, most of which are presumably deep underwater, and a breakthrough of the long-term support line (as is possibly happening now, no volume as of yet though so could be false), would confirm a continuation of the bear market which, I believe, would prompt many of these hodlers to sell in hopes of buying back later on (or perhaps pulling a Veronica and leaving the game entirely).

This is, of course, not even accounting for the risk-taking traders and (possibly) whales who were expecting an upwards breakthrough and price spike, and would probably be among the first to sell now, creating enough momentum for the hodlers to follow suit.

oda.krell

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Quote from: windjc on May 18, 2014, 06:20:38 PM

It looks like we are in a season with an extreme lack of sellers. It's obvious that no one is buying (at least on exchange), but with the really low recent bitcoin days destroyed trend and the miners seemingly refusing to sell at a loss, we have come to a complete stop.

I think we can make a short/intermediate bull run if we slowly start to edge upwards. I think this mainly because I think there is enough money sitting on the sidelines of exchanges to drive the price to the 600's. But without new money (god I hate repeating myself dozens of times) coming in, I could see us trading in the 450-650 range for a long time, with a slow drift back down towards 450, if a mini-bull rally didn't entice new investors.

Of course, tomorrow China could ban bitcoin exchanges or Houbi could declare itself insolvent and the bottom could fall out of this entire market.

>I think we can make a short/intermediate bull run if we slowly start to edge upwards.
Agreed. I've said it a few times before, I think the most relevant observation right now is that we seem to see a) sellers' exhaustion, and b) no matching increase in buying pressure (which is different from 2013 for example). Possibly, the reversal we're in now more closely resembles early 2012 than mid 2013.

>if a mini-bull rally didn't entice new investors.
Agreed as well. But as you note yourself: price increase can have this funny little habit of becoming self sustaining from a certain point onwards. Probably not at 600, but say we make it to 700, and as a result the first articles keep popping up in NYT and Forbes "To our surprise, Bitcoin is recovering quite well (but we still don't trust it)", and suddenly a new wave of money flows in that takes us to 800. Wash rinse repeat. (nb: not saying that will happen for sure, but it's a possibility)

windjc

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It looks like we are in a season with an extreme lack of sellers. It's obvious that no one is buying (at least on exchange), but with the really low recent bitcoin days destroyed trend and the miners seemingly refusing to sell at a loss, we have come to a complete stop.

I think we can make a short/intermediate bull run if we slowly start to edge upwards. I think this mainly because I think there is enough money sitting on the sidelines of exchanges to drive the price to the 600's. But without new money (god I hate repeating myself dozens of times) coming in, I could see us trading in the 450-650 range for a long time, with a slow drift back down towards 450, if a mini-bull rally didn't entice new investors.

Of course, tomorrow China could ban bitcoin exchanges or Houbi could declare itself insolvent and the bottom could fall out of this entire market.

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